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July 26, 2009

The Sound Of Settled Science

What would we do without computer models?

June 24, 2009;

Most likely, this summer's Gulf dead zone will blanket about 7,980 square miles, roughly the same size as last year's zone, Scavia said. That would put the years 2009, 2008 and 2001 in a virtual tie for second place on the list of the largest Gulf dead zones [...]

"As with weather forecasts, the Gulf forecast uses multiple models to predict the range of the expected size of the dead zone. The strong track record of these models reinforces our confidence in the link between excess nutrients from the Mississippi River and the dead zone," said Robert Magnien, director of NOAA's Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research.

July 25, 2009;

The 3,000 square miles is one of the smallest measurements of the zone since measurements began in 1985, according to a graph in a news release sent from a research vessel in the Gulf. Only those in 1987, 1988 and 2000 were smaller.

h/t Willis

Update: A reader writes -

I forwarded that to Eric Berger, a science reporter at the Houston Comical. He reported it here.

Eric plays things pretty straight up, and generally does a good job. He's particularly good when there's a hurricane in the Gulf & everyone is searching for reliable information.

But according to a post on Eric's blog, the Comical initially tagged the report, thusly, on the home page: "Predictions were way low on size of Gulf 'dead zone'"

Apparently, that erroneous tag has since been removed.



Posted by Kate at July 26, 2009 8:22 AM
Comments

ya but, but, but, but . . . Al Gore has an Oscar and a Nobel Peace Prize.

And he says we are all going to die of heat prostration.

So there.

Posted by: Fred at July 26, 2009 8:35 AM

That's it, I am convinced... let's use this information to bet the entire western world's economy...

Now, many, many people, across the entire political spectrum, like clean water, clean air, safe and healthy food, a diversity of life forms, natural spaces in which to recreate, and so on. These people should be ready to tar and feather the hoaxsters like FrootFly, and Al Bore, who have managed to marginalize environmentalists.

I like having natural spaces, and pastoral spaces, and clean streams, rivers, and lakes, and places to catch brook trout.

It's time for the environmentalists to kick these flim-flamming scam artists out of their movement, or at least off their pedestals. They are now damaging the movement, rather than helping it.

Over to you, environmentalists. You will find that many conservative types support balanced environmentalism, and you will enjoy broader support and accomplish more by putting distance between the hoaxsters and your movement.

Posted by: shaken at July 26, 2009 9:04 AM

In other un-reported computer model news, it has been discovered that the Atlantic Conveyor current doesn't do what the models say it does.

On the bright side, India just told Obama to go pound salt with his cap-and-trade scam.

Posted by: The Phantom at July 26, 2009 9:17 AM

In defense of models, just look at Wall Street. They hired the most brilliant computer scientists, financial experts, mathematicians, engineers and as a result have been able to accurately model many things such as:
................................................................ (oh never mind).

Posted by: imapopulistnow at July 26, 2009 9:29 AM

Cheer up people, just because it is smaller does not mean we are not headed for catastrophe. A scientist says it is **unusually thick**. Hey, I am no scientist, but should that not be **unusually deep**.

Posted by: bob c at July 26, 2009 9:46 AM

Ah c,mon, these models also forecast BarryO's reduced deficit and increasing jobs through his miraculous porkulous bill.

He said so!

Hey, i just saw a unicorn!

Posted by: DanBC at July 26, 2009 9:58 AM

"Robert Magnien, director of NOAA's Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research."

Oy! So what's this? NOAA in the pocket of who, Big Shrimp? So its ok to take somebody's money, just not anybody's?

Posted by: Skip at July 26, 2009 10:01 AM

As long as we are trashing "scientists" today, (by which I mean JUNK science), let me share this irritant.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/26/science/26robot.html?_r=2&hp

"Scientists Worry Machines May Outsmart Man"

Oh. My. Gawd. Is it any wonder the NY Slimes in in the dumper? Here's the beginning.

"Impressed and alarmed by advances in artificial intelligence, a group of computer scientists is debating whether there should be limits on research that might lead to loss of human control over computer-based systems that carry a growing share of society’s workload, from waging war to chatting with customers on the phone."

"Their concern is that further advances could create profound social disruptions and even have dangerous consequences."

You have to read on through like half a page of this viewing-with-alarm crap before you come to be told who "a group of computer scientists" actually is. Its one Eric Horvitz, is who it is. Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI) previously known as the American Association for Artificial Intelligence).

AKA a nut group.

He's selling his wares to the public, and the NY Slimes is making up for a slow news day by printing his crap. No doubt he'd like to build his band wagon as big as the Global Warming one, and no doubt the NY SLimes would like to help him.

GAHHH!!!! Stop your lying!

Posted by: The Phantom at July 26, 2009 10:15 AM

Accu Weather "3,000 Low Temp Records Set This July!"

"Water temps at Frying Pan Shoals (off Cape Fear) fell to 78 degrees a few days ago; NDBC historical data shows this occurs only 0.3% of the time in July!"

here

Posted by: ron in kelowna at July 26, 2009 11:08 AM

Meanwhile MSM ignores 3000 Low Temp Records Set This July!

Accuweather.

Posted by: Fritz at July 26, 2009 11:13 AM

Meanwhile MSM ignores 3000 Low Temp Records Set This July!

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?blog=weathermatrix&partner=&pgUrl=/mtweb/content/weathermatrix/archives/2009/07/1000_low_temp_records_set_this_july.asp

Posted by: Fritz at July 26, 2009 11:14 AM

Fritz, that reminds me:

http://phantomsoapbox.blogspot.com/2009/07/algore-effect-strikes.html

Record low temps in Algore's home town. I suggest they make him move before a glacier forms over his house and eats Nashville.

Posted by: The Phantom at July 26, 2009 11:22 AM

The only dead zone I see is between these so called scientists ears.Don't they teach GIGO in computer studies anymore?

Posted by: Justthinkin at July 26, 2009 12:00 PM

Meanwhile, over at ClimatAudit, Steve has guilted a Mole over at the UK met office to send him the data they have refused for years to reveal to the public.

Just like the UK MP's expenses that were too secret to reveal until a Mole coughed up the data.

Now that Steve has the data and he can start to see what kind of statistical water boarding Phil Jones has been doing to make the Hadcrut temperature record so "hot".

They can hide, they can cheat, they can obfuscate, they can try and hide behind walls of "Yes Minister' bureaucratic run-around, but in the end, they will always be found out.

Wonder how many Global Warming moats will be revealed in the data so generously delivered by Steve's Mole ?

Posted by: Fred at July 26, 2009 12:41 PM

Oh no, don't tell me the dead zone is dying !!!

Posted by: Peter O'Donnell at July 26, 2009 12:43 PM

Well said, Shaken. Unfortunately, as the saying goes, the radicals define the limits. Like you I value a clean environment and believe we all need to get to work finding an alternative to fossil fuels. It will take cooperation from "left" and "right" so agendas, ideology and disinformation need to be jettisoned.

That's not in the radicals' personal interests, so it won't happen anytime soon. That's too bad because we have an opportunity to significantly reduce pollution, you know the real dirt that doesn't exist naturally in the atmosphere.

Feel good recycling and hybrid cars mean nothing when pollution growth in India and China surpasses several industrialized country's combined output.

Denying the developing world the means to offer their citizens escape from misery is not the answer either. Giving credits to China to develop clean technologies while their outputs skyrocket is naive at best.

We need to stop arguing about AGW theory and all agree that an alternate fuel is required. It will take a long time, so let's get started. Hopefully we will stop using oil before we run out.

Posted by: Shamrock at July 26, 2009 12:47 PM

Damn those man made phytoplankton!

Now our Marlin charters will cost more because of having to go further out into the gulf stream to find trophy fish for their clients, Day-em!

Somewhere "Papa" and Santiago dream of the big gulf fish.

Posted by: Billy Bragg at July 26, 2009 12:57 PM

On the subject of journalists, I saw the most wonderful flick over at my buddy Jon's last night, "Nothing Sacred"; what stayed with me was a quote I knew instinctively that I'd be able to use here today:

"You're a newspaperman, aren't you? I can smell 'em. Here, let me open some windows...you know what I think of newspapermen? The Hand of God couldn't reach down into the mire and elevate them to the depths of degradation, not by a million miles!"

Posted by: Michael H Anderson at July 26, 2009 1:43 PM

One can only conclude that these "models" which allegedly "predict" the climate and such of the future are only as good as luck allows them to be.

Why should we believe in computer models to predict the future? It's absurd. Scientists aren't God.

Posted by: Canadian Sentinel at July 26, 2009 2:01 PM

Computer Modeling is an art rather than a science, I know I have written many statistical models for Insurance and Financial Services dealing with large number theory. I hated the work because many times there was a faction in the group who had a predetermined result they wanted as opposed to relevant "pure" data they could utilize.

When a model deviates from their "expectations" it is reconstructed, adapted and "tweaked" to arrive at the predetermined conclusion. This is because they incorporate their methodology into the model so it will agree with them.

That in reality is what a computer model is, a replication of the developer's methodology and not a true representation of what is being modeled.

Somewhere we lost sight of this basic fact and elevated a model to the realm of an experiment when a model is in reality only a hypothesis that needs to be verified by observation of what has been modeled.

Posted by: Illiquid Assets at July 26, 2009 2:25 PM

aint it a bitch when ma nature wont cooperate?

Posted by: curious_george at July 26, 2009 2:52 PM

Vancouver is going to have record temps in the next few days. How soon before we are told it's global warming?

Posted by: tranio at July 26, 2009 3:19 PM

"imapopulistnow" (9:29 AM) has my vote for "quote of the year"

Awesome!

"In defense of models, just look at Wall Street. They hired the most brilliant computer scientists, financial experts, mathematicians, engineers and as a result have been able to accurately model many things such as:
................................................................ (oh never mind)."

Posted by: Tenebris at July 26, 2009 4:54 PM

Off topic, but has anyone heard any news lately about Maurice Strong?

Posted by: orvict at July 26, 2009 5:31 PM

Tranio - do you mean record lows? We've already had several of those this spring/summer...and BTW on the subject of predictions, I notice not one single weather station/website predicted the awesome thunderstorm we had last night, not even while it was happening, hardehar.

Posted by: Michael H Anderson at July 26, 2009 5:38 PM

Tranio again - I am looking at Enviro Canada weather for Van right now and it's showing nothing over 28 this week (Wednesday), then decreasing toward the weekend. Someone saying that's a record high for late July? Well, even if it is, we've only been collecting weather data here since 1937 - yep, about one human lifetime - but yeah, someone's bound to say it's AGW despite the record lows this same month. Self-serving bloodsucking bastards, I call 'em.

Posted by: Michael H Anderson at July 26, 2009 5:44 PM

As they say. Torture the Data enough & it will admit to anything.

Posted by: Revnant Dream at July 26, 2009 6:09 PM

Illiquid Assets at 2:25 PM


well said:-)))


and as the programs they use for "climate" modeling do not incorporate feed back loops, it's SH!T in SH!T out, nuff said!!!!

Posted by: GYM at July 26, 2009 7:42 PM

We are having global warnimg and all you cons do is deny it!! I read your lies and I cannot stay silent anymore! We need to stop this warmning right now and we wil do it without your help if we have to. Once we've heated, we will put you cons in jail for your lies! You should be banned and the liers on this site arrested. We must tax gas and oil and make the rich nations pay now or we are ever doomed!! Or don't you care???

Posted by: uber liberal at July 26, 2009 8:01 PM

Hey,

what's with the Übermensch, is he gone over the deep end?

Posted by: Lev at July 26, 2009 8:39 PM

One of you jokers couldn't stand it anymore and had to make up a fake troll, didnchya?

Pretty good immitation, I gotta admit. Even misselled "liars".

Bwaha!

Posted by: The Phantom at July 26, 2009 8:47 PM

I think that was supposed to be sarcasm .....

Posted by: OMMAG at July 26, 2009 9:09 PM

Alfred Korzybski would be appalled by the abuses of modelling if he was alive today as he was the guy who said: "The map is not the territory" A seemingly trivial statement, but obviously something completely foreign to the climate modellers.

I blame it on having incredibly fast machines to run models on. My computer modelling days were over 20 years ago when it would take minutes to compute a single millisecond of the Hodgkin-Huxley equations on a PDP-11. Now one can run simulations of whole neurons in faster than real-time along with an incredible display of color-coded electrical activity on the neuron on a standard desktop machine. It looks so realistic that some people think it must be real.

The climate modellers are no different than teenagers who get so caught up in the seeming realism of modern first person shooter computer games that they go an shoot up their high school. The damage the climate modellers are potentially causing if many of orders of magnitude worse and may even result in the destruction of western civilization.

Posted by: loki at July 26, 2009 9:09 PM

how many of you bothered to read the article?

from the 2nd link:

This year's area covers 3,000 square miles, but is also unusually thick, stretching from the bottom nearly to the surface, according to Nancy Rabalais, a researcher who specializes in . . . "

key phrase UNUSUALLY THICK.

in other words the total volume of water affected is much closer to the previous measurements than just the AREA affected. m'kay there bandwagon riders?

Posted by: curious_george at July 26, 2009 10:46 PM

From above:

Off topic, but has anyone heard any news lately about Maurice Strong?

Maurice was already an old man a few years ago. By now, he may be senile.

Hope to read his obituary soon.

Posted by: foobert at July 26, 2009 10:58 PM

in other words the total volume of water affected is much closer to the previous measurements than just the AREA affected. m'kay there bandwagon riders?

Posted by: curious_george at 10:46 PM


sounds about the same as the "ice is thinner" when you tell lefties that the NP sea ice covers about the same area as in 1980

CG, why don't you explain what it means to you, rather than just state it, context is wounderfull

Posted by: GYM at July 26, 2009 11:29 PM

uber liberal or are you 'new.' I think you both went to the same grammar school.

I hear the HufPo calling you.

Posted by: Jim in Calgary at July 27, 2009 10:00 AM


Oh for the love of God, I live in Louisi-Yana and this area has been dead for 30 years due to excessive offshore drilling, and commercial fishing.
,

Posted by: Ratt at July 27, 2009 12:07 PM

curious_george

Yes but thickness lacks Multi-year deadness and as we know with Ice, that newfangled 1 year old deadness just isn't the same as the older deadness.

But then, changing the goalposts in a leftard thing. I guess if you can change it once, you can keep changing it. Even if that means changing in different directions when presented with the opposite problem.

Posted by: Jason at July 27, 2009 12:16 PM

I knew I would get attacked! That is because you don`t want to hear the truth!! I am trying to make you see but you are out to ruin Trudeau`s Canada and he must be respected!! I hope Ignatieff wins and cleans your clocks! I would like to see these con sides banned for their lies. We need to help the environment becuase of the polution and yet you do nothing! We need to defeat you!!

Posted by: uber liberal at July 27, 2009 6:31 PM

CG ... thickness is very relative.. you seem to believe that the thicker layers of depleted O2 would be significant in terms of the total effect?

Well you are wrong ...
First because the Gulf is SHALLOW ... too shallow to make much difference if a dead zone is on the bottom or extending to the surface.
Second because the major impact of the dead zone is BECAUSE it is on the bottom.

Third because you are assuming that the point of this post and it's criticism implies a disregard for polution and it's consequences when it is plainly stated that the point is about forcasting and the abuse of forcasts for the sake of promoting the agenda of groups.

Lastly .... you fail to see the most obvious ... the fact that the publisher of the article found it NECESSARY to insert the disclaimer paragraph into the piece ABOVE the article body.


Proving that they deemed it necessary to add their own form of qualification rather than let the facts speak.

Posted by: OMMAG at July 27, 2009 7:25 PM
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