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June 25, 2009

The Sound Of Settled Science

In Australia, a crack in the political consensus...

One of the most remarkable changes occurred on April 13, when leading global warming hysteric Paul Sheehan—who writes for the main Sydney newspaper, the Sydney Morning Herald, which has done as much to hype the threat of global warming as any Australian newspaper—reviewed Plimer's book and admitted he was taken aback. He describes Plimer, correctly, as "one of Australia's foremost Earth scientists," and praised the book as "brilliantly argued" and "the product of 40 years' research and breadth of scholarship."

What does Plimer's book say? Here is Sheehan's summary:

Much of what we have read about climate change, [Plimer] argues, is rubbish, especially the computer modeling on which much current scientific opinion is based, which he describes as "primitive."…

The Earth's climate is driven by the receipt and redistribution of solar energy. Despite this crucial relationship, the sun tends to be brushed aside as the most important driver of climate. Calculations on supercomputers are primitive compared with the complex dynamism of the Earth's climate and ignore the crucial relationship between climate and solar energy.

To reduce modern climate change to one variable, CO2, or a small proportion of one variable—human-induced CO2—is not science. To try to predict the future based on just one variable (CO2) in extraordinarily complex natural systems is folly.

In response, this is Sheehan's conclusion: "Heaven and Earth is an evidence-based attack on conformity and orthodoxy, including my own, and a reminder to respect informed dissent and beware of ideology subverting evidence." This cannot be interpreted as anything but a capitulation. It cedes to the global warming rejectionists the high ground of being "evidence-based," and it accepts the characterization of the global warming promoters as dogmatic conformists.

The political impact has been manifested in a series of climb-downs as Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's government has been forced to delay its plans for cap-and-trade controls. On May 4, the government announced it would postpone the onset of the scheme until mid-2011, a year later than originally planned.

h/t Ed S.

Posted by Kate at June 25, 2009 1:54 PM
Comments

It's not too late to stop destruction of Canadian economy. But I am not sure about US.

Posted by: Aaron at June 25, 2009 2:09 PM

It took the EVIL bastards 30 years to put the US in the condition we find our economy.

If we manage to control the gangsters, speculators, Communists, and UN hairballs, Legitimate Science will win the day hands down.

The Congress will put the focus on them, and all we need to do is sort them into the above groups and call them out.

I think Harper (Canada) has a grip on three of the groups...but we need to see how it’s played as the NDP & Liberals sort themselves

Posted by: Phillip G. Shaw at June 25, 2009 2:46 PM

Is he trying to pretend he didn't know that AGW was a product of collectivist groupthink about how to indoctrinate and organize the ignorami on a worldwide basis then seize power? He was a true believer? That is lame.

Posted by: Sgt Lejaune at June 25, 2009 2:56 PM

Paul Sheehan deserves considerable credit for his review. It is both rare and unusually courageous for any individual to question a prevailing orthodoxy.

Posted by: cgh at June 25, 2009 2:59 PM


The inability of global warming's true believers to understand the difference between observed data (which show that temperature is cyclical and has, for the past 150 years, both risen and fallen while carbon dioxide concentrations have risen fairly steadily) and projections produced by models based on an as-yet-unvalidated theory about how carbon dioxide concentrations and temperatures are linked (which universally project that temperature will increase in response to increasing CO2 concentrations) simply demonstrates the scientific illiteracy of those who continue to accord the latter priority of place over the latter.

When theory and data conflict, theory must give way. Karl Popper put it best: when testing a theory by "empirical applications of conclusions that can be derived from it", if the conclusions have been falsified - i.e., if predictions based on the theory are not borne out by observations - then "their falsification also falsifies the theory from which they were logically deduced."*

The AGW theorists posited that climbing CO2 concentrations would lead inevitably to climbing temperatures. All of their model outputs predicted that this would happen. Instead, while CO2 has climbed, according to all principal datasets - NASA GISS, Hadley, both satellite MSU sets and the Jason array - temperatures, atmospheric and oceanic alike, have either remained stable or have fallen. To quote another esteemed philosopher, th-th-th-that's all, folks!

The AGW thesis is dead, killed by data that it could not explain. Any remaining semblance of life is due entirely to political momentum and to the pecuniary interests of its advocates. The challenge now is to keep Western governments from basing economic policy on this zombie-like contemporary equivalent of phlogiston. Whether it will be possible to keep the global warming train from smashing headlong into the US economy and obliterating it given the covey of true believers running Washington remains to be seen.

We'll get an inkling of the answer tomorrow when the Whackjob-Malarkey bill comes to a vote.

*Karl Popper, "The Logic of Scientific Discovery" (New York: Routledge Classics, 2002), 9-10.

Posted by: D.A. Neill at June 25, 2009 3:22 PM

Will Sheehan be our modern Galileo? Will he be forced to recant under penalty of "death?"

Posted by: Doug at June 25, 2009 3:25 PM

I thought it was common sense to explore all possibilities before making a conclusion, even a radical one like carbon dioxide is the root of all environmental evil.
But, then again, I'm not a scientist like Al Gore.
Oh wait.

Posted by: Osumashi Kinyobe at June 25, 2009 3:56 PM

EPA Suppresses Internal Global Warming Study, CEI Says

Scientific findings at odds with the Obama Administration’s views on carbon dioxide and climate change are being suppressed as a result of political pressure, officials at the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) charge.

“This suppression of valid science for political reasons is beyond belief,” said CEI General Counsel Sam Kazman. “EPA’s conduct is even more outlandish because it flies in the face of the president’s widely-touted claim that ‘the days of science taking a back seat to ideology are over.’”

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/EPA-Suppresses-Internal-Global-Warming-Study-CEI-Says.html

Posted by: Jason at June 25, 2009 4:02 PM

"In times of universal deceit, telling the truth will be a revolutionary act"
George Orwell

Were already there...Actually, we are somewhere between G. Orwell and Ayn Rand, IMO.

Posted by: Right Honorable Terry Tory at June 25, 2009 4:14 PM

As the evidence mounts I notice people like John Cross commenting less and less. I wonder if it was the Atlantic conveyor revision that finally did him in?

Apparently there is a limit to the credulity of even the most devoted warmers.

Posted by: The Phantom at June 25, 2009 4:38 PM

when stupid people are your main source of info then you become stupid. do you think a computer model would make you rich if it only gave stock market predictions?

Posted by: old white guy at June 25, 2009 4:47 PM

It always amused me the amount of faith people put in the models.

If you don't thoroughly understand the entirety of any system there is no way you can create a software program to accurately model it.

Posted by: SDH at June 25, 2009 5:48 PM

A new wheat fungus has arrived on the scene and no doubt it is caused by climate change; solution send money,Anand and son have experience. Wheat rust of bygone eras was the product of predestined climate change, what other explanation is possible. Gia teaches us through the mouths of the prophets.

Posted by: horny at June 25, 2009 7:32 PM

My expectation is that this whacho phenomina/agenda would crash like a house of cards when somebody...noticed the king was bare-a$$ed. Anybody smarter than a 5th grader was not fooled for a minute.
I'm not sure it has occurred yet----Australia is far far away....Whackjob/Marlarky marches onwards...
There is a great incentive to continue the kamakaze course----political momentum is an awesome thing....could Obama and the eurocrats survive to change course.

Posted by: sasquatch at June 25, 2009 7:38 PM

the "models" run one supercomputers are primative?????

h!ll, I'v been saying for a couple of years now that there ain't a program out there that can run a climate model(properly), and if there was then there ain't no computer supper enough to run it, when will the wizzards figure this out?????

Posted by: GYM at June 25, 2009 8:33 PM

" Much of what we have read about climate change, [Plimer] argues, is rubbish, especially the computer modeling on which much current scientific opinion is based, which he describes as "primitive."…"

Tim Ball has been saying just that for a decade. But Pansbridge & gang ignore him and keep fawning all over lying Suzuki. Could a fraud suit be coming ? Lots of evidence. Lots of perpetrators. Rich perpeTRAITORS.

Posted by: ron in kelowna at June 25, 2009 9:05 PM

Meanwhile those crazy Californians ... http://tinyurl.com/mm4fu9

Posted by: WW at June 25, 2009 10:12 PM

On May 4, the government announced it would postpone the onset of the scheme until mid-2011, a year later than originally planned.

Somebody there is thinking. To bad the Faux Conservatives here didn't do the same. They caved into the enviro-fanatics religious fever.
The Liberals looking for loot, as is their want.
Any excuse need apply.
The NDP are just like nomadic raiders. The only tactic known to them. Is gutting the very creature that give out the golden eggs.
JMO

Posted by: Revnant Dream at June 25, 2009 10:56 PM

Um, my concern is that the review was published on April 13, according to the synopsis. That's over 10 weeks ago, but we're just hearing about it now?

Posted by: KevinB at June 25, 2009 11:30 PM

Is it just me, or does anyone else see the similarity between trading “carbon credits” which are figments of imagination based on faith and trading “derivatives” of mortgage backed securities which are also figments of the imagination based on faith. We all know where that led to.

I know that money has nor real inherent value and it to is a figment of imagination based upon faith. But in the case of money the faith is based upon the strength of the underlying economy and the ability of the state to use its resources to enforce trades at the face value of the instrument – legal tender.

For the mortgage backed securities the faith was that there was underlying value as indicated by the rating agencies.

But for “carbon credits”, the faith is what? That there will always be a government created value to the “credits” or that in the fullness of time everyone will accept the credits as having value? What happens as the AGM hypothesis unraveling picks up steam?

Posted by: rroe at June 26, 2009 12:27 AM

Is this Sheehan the sole MSMer with a desire to salvage the shreds of his credibility?

Posted by: Mom's Watching at June 26, 2009 1:06 AM

Tim Ball has been saying just that for a decade. But Pansbridge & gang ignore him and keep fawning all over lying Suzuki. Could a fraud suit be coming ? Lots of evidence. Lots of perpetrators. Rich perpeTRAITORS.
Posted by: ron in kelowna at June 25, 2009 9:05 PM

Bill Good on CKNW is much the same. I find Bill generally okay to listen to, but when it comes to the issue of "climate change" he's a True Believer, a Drinker Of The Kool Aid.

Several months back, I recall listening to him berate a caller who was trying to bring up Tim Ball's arguments. I'm paraphrasing, as it was awhile back, but Bill's response was a resounding, "TIM BALL IS NOT AN EXPERT IN THIS SUBJECT!". The caller was cut off.

The only thing missing was the expletives, which I'm sure he would have included but for the fact he was on the radio.

Posted by: Colin from Mission B.C. at June 26, 2009 1:55 AM

We will have to see if this information has the ability to snowball and effect Ontario politicians who have been put under the spell of Suzuki and the eco-guilt evangelists. Maybe some Ontario Tories will finally stand up and levy 'informed dissent' against the Green Energy Act.

Posted by: GEAgainst at June 26, 2009 11:44 AM

Colin from Mission:

You are so right on Bill Good. I've noticed that he has young producers who are absolute AGW Believers and it may be that they feed him their Kool Aid. Maybe while he is on medical leave he reads some actual, ah how can I put this nicely..."real" information about the AGW con.

Posted by: DJ at June 26, 2009 11:51 AM

I've just emailed Bill Good, suggesting that he read the article from Australia. I reminded him that I have been a guest on his show in the past.

Posted by: tranio at June 26, 2009 3:11 PM

The sooner AGW unravels the better, and send the Suzuki's et all to jail for fraud.

Posted by: LEDA at June 27, 2009 10:26 AM

The only factors that will win this battle against the green left involve science, and the widespread dissemination of information.
The science will win out eventually, see the ARGO and CLOUD experiments...

http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/
http://public.web.cern.ch/public/en/Research/CLOUD-en.html

...and sceptical blogs. The blogosphere is a gift, a guaranteed bypass of the orthodox main media.

Get blogging !

Posted by: Ayrdale at June 29, 2009 12:32 AM
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