sda2.jpg

October 15, 2008

The 40th Parliament

Some rather disjointed thoughts after yesterdays election.

There's a lot of anguish in the media and on the leftward leaning blogs about yesterday's voter turn-out. PR is raising it's ugly head, strategic voting was hailed as the saviour for the left and failed.

Woo, big surprise. Reminds me of the right during the 90's. Here's a hint to the left; appeal to the dedicated voter demographics or get them to be dedicated voters.

In my opinion, anyone thinking that Harper "lost" last night because he didn't get a majority is wrong. At the outset, majority was best case, stronger minority was middle case and reduced minority was worst case. The Prime Minister said that. He met with all of the leaders to try and argue the case for the last parliament.

The results of those meetings was a resounding, "No." Harper said, "Fine.", and we went to an election. That became one of the first (of many) Martin campaign parallels, Dion had previously all but promised a fall election and PM Harper pre-empted him.

PM Harper solidified his gains and defeated an ugly, populist based wealth distribution scheme. The Prime Minister limited his real competitor to six seats in the West, beat that competitor in Ontario, held in Quebec and made gains in the Atlantic provinces and the North. It's a long way and been a long road from "CRAP", eh, baby.

This was no loss. If incremental conservatism as espoused by Flannigan and Harper is a real strategy then the corollary must be an acceptance of incremental gains. I'd say a 19 seat gain qualifies. Wouldn't you?

Like every election I've ever witnessed, the stuff that made up politics entering the campaign had absolutely nothing to do with the campaign. The so-called Cadman "scandal", Mulroney-Schreiber, Bernier, none of that mattered.

C-51 and 61 died. They shouldn't be resurrected.

The CWB need to be addressed immediately. The entire grain-belt voted for the party that hasn't hidden it's disdain for the CWB. The only hold out was Regina-Wascana. To me that's the number one priority. Secondly, the HRC's and Section 13 have to be addressed. The iron is hot, go for it already.

The environment as an issue is dead. Maybe now we can actually get a Clean-Air bill passed that addresses real pollution instead of make-believe pollution. C'mon left, don't let your perfect be the enemy of the general good.

According to Elections Canada, they have 28 days to release the full report on valid votes. I know I'm not the only person waiting to download the full dataset? I had my database running last night, had my SQL views and functions written. I found I needed a few more that would have made my life easier, but c'est la vie. I can't wait to do some serious data-mining and examine some of the voting patterns on a poll-by-poll, riding-by-riding basis. (FWIW, if anyone wants to do this, go and download for free the PostgreSQL database. I can send you my db of last election, it's 41M.)

I'm glad that Nettie Wiebe lost last night, but there are some questions that have to be asked and looking at the unofficial numbers highlights a couple of those questions.
2006 CPC: 13331, last night: 12166
2006 NDP: 11412, last night: 11913
2006 Grn: 738, last night: 1228
2006 Lib: 3536, last night: 1176

1. Where did the Liberals go?
2. Where did the CPC lose 1200 votes?
3. Nettie only gained 500 votes against a rookie?

Just some of the questions I'll be asking the data when it's released.

Did Quebec really turn on $45M cuts to "culture" and holding criminals to account? If so, then congratulations Mr. Duceppe for jumping on that and running with it. Lot's of people hate the idea of a separatist party in federal politics . . . too bad I say. That's what the people of Quebec want, that's democracy.

Having said that the CPC really need to get a ground game going in Quebec. . .course, everyone has been saying that about the right for 15 years.

Anyway, that's about it for my ramblings. If anyone else has any, "hmmm" moments to share, please do.

Cheers,
lance

Posted by lance at October 15, 2008 8:47 PM
Comments

Lefty commenters continue to say that Harper squandered $300 million by calling this election.

That would only be true if he was planning to avoid elections in the future (part of the "hidden agenda", no doubt).

The worst that can be said is that the expenditure was advanced 15 months.

Posted by: jlc at October 15, 2008 10:24 PM

a) Every national party has been trying to get it's ground game going in Quebec. Why can't they?

b) The Conservatives have done well everywhere except the Atlantic. They should get their ground game going there as well. Specifically NL. Time to make some sort of amends with Danny boy. I wonder if he is truly happy with the Liberal MPs though?

Posted by: langmann at October 15, 2008 10:28 PM

Hear hear, Lance. Agree with it all.

Posted by: Woodporter at October 15, 2008 10:29 PM

Danny Whine for Wine Williams has replaced Quebec as the biggest complainer in confederation. here is the average subsidy per capita of the chief whining duff sitting welfare grabbing culture lying folk east of the ottawa river. Danny is the winning whiner.

http://www.fin.gc.ca/FEDPROV/mtpe.html#Newfoundland

http://www.fin.gc.ca/FEDPROV/nae.html


put your pudgy nose on the window Danny , you're on the outside looking in.

Posted by: cal2 at October 15, 2008 10:37 PM

Without Quebecs _guaranteed_ 75 seats this country is not viable with a majority government. That bears repeating. Unless the 'Nation within a nation' of the Quebecois approves, there will not be a majority mandate. They supported Mulroney, but name another in the last 40 years, that was not a liberal.
Bottom line, if the west wants 'in' they cannot be in without an in in Quebec. Period.

But les maudit anglais should continue to send the equalization payments. Hell yes.

Are there no conservatives in Quebec? Why will they not vote for anyone outside their Province? How does the official Federal separatist party of Quebec speak for 'Canadians' in any rational way?

Why, why, why does the rest of Canada submit to the vagaries of a failed colonial polity?

And, if there was a vote in the ROC to separate from the french, would this, finally, send the message to them, the 'Nation' that you are blessed with the right to be independent, just not on our dime.

Posted by: Dana at October 15, 2008 10:45 PM

@ cal2:

Here is the graph comparing Newfoundland and Labrador's per capita transfers compared to the other provinces.

As we can see, NL is doing very well for itself.

Posted by: langmann at October 15, 2008 10:48 PM

Many are blaming Harper for the low voter turnout... as if he gerrymandered it. MSM is try to spin it as a loss for Harper because he failed to secure a majority. As stated above, it came as no surprise. In fact, and quite ironically, it was those on the left who stated he wouldn't get a majority (many saying he would lose seats (120-125 range) who now act as if it was a surprise that he didn't.

The truth is, Liberals voters were not inspired by their party's leader. That's not Harper's fault, that's the fault of the Liberal delgates who chose Dion.

BTW, Dion cannot resign as leader - by choice or pressured to. He said he would stay and fight... like John Tory. I don't like Tory and want him replaced, but at least he's walking the walk - stayed on in spite of a poor campaign and staying on in spite of just 2/3 renewal of his support at the review. At leaset he's walking the walk.

If Dion resigns as leader then what does that tell us about him? He said one thing during the campign and does the opposite after the vote. Taking that into account, he did have waht it took to be Liberal leader.

Posted by: morgan at October 15, 2008 10:51 PM

Dana, you're wrong.

12 seats shy of a majority. I've looked at the results of 2006, the CPC could have done it.

Does a party need representation in Que to win a majority, probably. Do they need to sweep Quebec, no. Three seats in Quebec City region were left on the table, probably four in the ridings between Que and Mtl.

Posted by: lance at October 15, 2008 10:56 PM

The primary reason for the low turnout was the by-election feel to this campaign plus it's only been a little over 30 months since the last election. The number of incumbents was very high and thus in many many ridings the outcome was very much a fait accompli.

Posted by: Gord Tulk at October 15, 2008 10:59 PM

lance, the BQ numbers did not move. 50 seats then , 50 now. Telling them they, the conquered french, are the favorite son was not enough (and to hell with the problems associated with telling all the other Canadians that they are almost (but not quite) as worthy as the "Nation' ) Mr. Harper took heat last year for warning that this market crunch was coming, took steps to protect our economy, with no credit whatever from the media, the lapdogs of the left, and it did not make a _bit_ of difference to La Belle Province.
The only way to win a majority in Canada is to completely isolate the Quebecois. How the hell is this Nation building?

Posted by: Dana at October 15, 2008 11:03 PM

I said at the beginning when the Arts and Culture cuts were first made, and again after PMSH's comments in Saskatoon that someone misread the importance the arts has in Quebec.
The lack of a majority is the direct result of not understanding the fact that the arts are actually respected as an honorable vocation in Quebec and for that some PC back room boys should be handed their walking papers.

Posted by: kevink at October 15, 2008 11:04 PM

'PM Harper solidified his gains'
I voted the-right way but I'm curious about the "gains". The way I see it he accomplished little and won this time in spite of himself. Due to the complete and total incompetence of the opposition?
What did I miss?
The "Nation of the Quebecois"?
I'm sure I'm over-looking some lesser achievements such as worker benefits for the self-employed and five hundred million tax dollars for cigarette smokers lung health.
The TSX tanked again today.
I'll still take him over Chretien any day.

Posted by: blanks at October 15, 2008 11:08 PM

Someone should tell both Quebec & The ROC who won on the plains of Abraham. It's bad enough that the loser dictated the terms of co-habitation back them, it is even worse that they are still dictating the terms today. I say if they haven't yet signed onto Canada's Constitution and aren't willing to be equal partners with each other province and territory, then we should give them 5 years to do so. If they refuse then we should have a referendum for the ROC as to whether we want to continue trying to appease them.

As for Danny Williams he should buy a female dog and name her "Payback" cause payback is a b....!
It's a little late to suck up now Danny boy.

mid island mike

Posted by: mike at October 15, 2008 11:11 PM

Many are assuming Dion probably wants to get out of politics but is just puitting on a brave face. Perhaps not. Maybe this guy isn't just looking for the right time to bow out graciously, maybe he's so in denial that he actually things he's more than he is. If that's the case, when, not if, he's forced out, any chance he might join May and the Green Party, presuming she stays as leader? I don't mean Dion as leader of the party, but as a general candidate, with "expertise" on the environment. Would it not be a perfect fit? His cosy relationship with May.

After Dion is removed, any chance he could join the Green Party?

Posted by: morgan at October 15, 2008 11:13 PM

On the issue of low voter turnout and how the MSM is blaming Harper for that, it's interesting to note that Newfoundland had the lowest turnout of all the provinces. That angle of the story omitted by MSM. Low voter turnout in THAT province, thanks to Mugabe-like tactics by Williams, is not an issue for MSM because it achieved its desired result. A means to an end is what's important for MSM, not how that's acheived.

Posted by: morgan at October 15, 2008 11:18 PM

The election was still worthwhile, since PMSH came away with a strengthened mandate.

Maybe then, we won't have quite the same stalling antics in the Senate, LIEberals saying they won't observe confidence vote losses, ridiculous allegations that Harper = Hitler, Satan, or some lesser gaggle of demons, having MPs suggesting Mulroney should hang, or that the Senate should be 'blown up'.

I would quite agree that Parliament was getting dysfunctional. The way some MPs were carrying on they should now get the message that PMSH indeed has a mandate to move forward with his agenda, even if the opposition find it somewhat distasteful.

The opposition is not there simply to be obstructionist at every turn. Dion clearly got that message.

The proposition among the MSM/LIEberals that somehow PMSH 'lost' is quite laughable.

Stephane Dion got 'hung out to dry' on his Green Shift policy. The loss of 19 seats during economic turmoil underscores the message.

The MSM can wail and sing to the mountains on how the 'nasty, cold, brutish' PMSH wasted 290 million in the last election. NONSENSE.

The last Parliament was nothing less than highly divisive, with enough antics for a 3 ring circus. ie Mulroney/Schreiber, Cadman tape, etc. The message the electorate gave is a stronger mandate to govern to PMSH.

I doubt the opposition parties are going to want to retest that theory in the very near future.


Cheers

Hans-Christian Georg Rupprecht, Commander in Chief

Frankenstein Battalion
2nd Squadron: Ulanen-(Lancers) Regiment Großherzog Friedrich von
Baden(Rheinisches) Nr.7(Saarbrucken)
Knecht Rupprecht Division
Hans Corps
1st Saint Nicolaas Army
Army Group "True North"

Posted by: Hans Rupprecht at October 15, 2008 11:22 PM

Once even more people move westward to the New Canada, the Old Canada will become less and less relevant.

It just takes a seat redistribution.

Last one was in 2004. Alberta's population increasing 50,000 a year due to immigration and our young having babies.

Alberta's due for three more seats as of today, maybe another five by the time new boundaries are drawn.

It's a matter of time and Quebec's suicidally-low birth rate to create a shift to the economic engine of New Canada ... the West.

Posted by: set you free at October 15, 2008 11:24 PM

Sheesh, bitter much Dana?

How is isolating the second most populous province in Canada "Nation building"?

Why are you concerned with nation building anyway? Last I saw we all had roads.

Kevin has it right. IMNSHO, Harper blew it by blowing off the arts backlash and not having anyone in Quebec to fight the BQ when they trumpeted it.

And then, to make matters worse, he caved on the tax credits for movies instead of restoring arts funding, oh goody, Gordon Pinset (sp?) calmed down, but every artist in Quebec ramped up.

It was a stupid move and Harper himself has admitted it more than once, "I think I was goaded into a statement...."

Fact: CPC leading in the polls prior to arts ramping up and CPC third place after.

Do the math and stop blaming a whole people for having a different set of priorities then to which you subscribe for not voting they way you prescribe.

Cheers,
lance

Posted by: lance at October 15, 2008 11:25 PM

Hans-Christian wrote... "The MSM can wail and sing to the mountains on how the 'nasty, cold, brutish' PMSH wasted 290 million in the last election. NONSENSE."

It's a trojan horse argument Liberals make - both in MSM and callers to phone-in shows. They're contradicted by their opposition to the GST cut. They're up-in-arms over $290 million spent on the election but have no complaint in having a $4 billion GST cut rescinded. the cost of the election is their strawman argument, put out to mask their disappointment at the Liberals' worst showing in a generation.

Posted by: morgan at October 15, 2008 11:32 PM

I just don't get the argument made throughout the media today that Harper was a loser in yesterdays vote. the conservatives were only 12 short of a majority, the liberals were 77 short and the ndp were 118 short. Subtract the 48 parliamentary seat warmers from Quebec who will and have accomplished nothing and you have a strong conservative majority.
Many western canadians would be willing to chip in with a few bucks each as part of a severance package to make sure that Quebec went their own way, good riddance.
Better yet, wouldn't a new nation of like minded people from Hudson Bay to the Pacific and North to the Arctic be a perfect solution, we would be one of the richest nations per capita on earth.

Posted by: Robert at October 15, 2008 11:44 PM

I'm disappointed with the distribution of votes in this country. Hey, the counts are in in Ontario and Quebec and it's over. No point even counting the ROC 'cause it don't fuckin matter. Representation by population.

Posted by: kelly at October 15, 2008 11:44 PM

It wasn't the Arts the last time the Bloc did well, or the time before that. They have become an instition...the naturally representing party. As crazy as it sounds, I'd just as soon cut Quebec loose so that the ROC can get on with governing that part of the country that actually wants to participate in a federal government.

Posted by: Tarkus at October 15, 2008 11:56 PM

We all know that Canada is a balkanized country.
Has been for a few decades and it will be that way for a long time to come. Having said that we need to accept that we have a very steady guy at the helm of our country and the Conservative party.
In these troubled times he will manage to get us
past a lot of tough issues. The results are in and one thing is for sure; no party will risk the brinkmanship of another election.
I give our Prime Minister a whole lot of credit for battling through a lot of tough anti-Conservative media battles and still keep us together and ahead. Conservatives have made major gains in a country of hostile media.
Good for Steven Harper and good for Canada.
It's time to stop replaying the campaign and get on with the peoples business!

Posted by: melwilde at October 16, 2008 12:02 AM

Extremely disappointed. Representation by population would have won our election with a majority.

Posted by: kelly at October 16, 2008 12:09 AM

Well folks, I worked the elections yesterday. I got assigned as an "information officer".

This is completely based on the my perceptions:

1) I don't know how many people voted, or came through, we had 1 bitch.

2) By far, most people brought way more identification than the needed. They heard (or miss heard) either 2 or 3 pieces were needed.

3) We only had 1 school group come through - it was at a school. For a celebration of democracy, I found it a little "scary".

4) Since I was in a position that encountered a lot of non-registered voters, I saw a lot of first time voters. It seemed to me ... and my perception could be completely wrong ... that almost 100% of first time voters were accompanied by their parent(s).

I think that Elections Canada scared the hell out a lot of our citizens by not conveying - just bring your Drivers License with your correct address on it to vote - nothing else is required if you do.

Posted by: ural at October 16, 2008 12:16 AM

Lance, why do you think Harper will do anything about the HRCs? He's never so much as mentioned it, and it has to be near the bottom of his list as he embarks on 30 days of meetings and consultations to decide what to do about the world financial crisis.
I voted Conservative, but let's be real. This election was about Harper trying for a majority and screwing it up by alienating Quebec with the arts and young offender issues, that could have been safely ignored. His secondary goal, damaging the Liberal party, was more successful but still... This federal erection was unnecessary and a waste of time.

Posted by: djb at October 16, 2008 12:17 AM

The thing is, lance, while I agree it was a gaffe and that the CPC needs people in Quebec who can relate to the people there at the same time I truly believe that if it weren't the arts cuts it would have been something else.

Haper has worked on building in Quebec with increasing provincial autonomy, transfer payments, seat at UNESCO etc. All this was brought down by $45M cuts on relatively useless art.

The foundation Harper built was therefore shaky at best, anything could bring it down, and at the end of the day without the gaffes I only think the CPC would have gained one or two seats there.

I think essentially the BQ works well for Quebec and they really have no need to give it up. They got their prizes from Harper, and they got to remind the rest of us what they think we owe them.

I do think the CPC needs a deputy leader who can talk to Quebec on it's level. At the same time, the CPC cannot hold back on things that need to be done simply for the sake of Quebec. If the economy gets any worse and we are forced to take budget cuts, are we to hold all Quebec's earmarked spending sacred simply to win votes?

Posted by: langmann at October 16, 2008 12:24 AM

If Mr. Harper is the loser, why are the knives being drawn for Mr. Dion? some Liberals openly calling for Dion's head, and no money to pay for the next selection, even though the last selection hasn't paid in full yet. The true loser here, is the Liberal Party of Canada.
The NDP is comfortable where they are.
The Bloc seems content with their status as the voice of Quebec.
The Green Party is where it belongs.

who's really unhappy? the CBC, Torstar, and all the usual suspects...

Mr. Harper can govern as he sees fit.

The Canadian Wheat Board and the aptly named, HRC section 13? Sure Liberals, threaten to make this an election issue, then roll over and play dead again. The only issue I see the Liberals, NDP and Bloc agreeing to all stand against the Conservatives bringing the house down again no matter when it's approached, is abortion. It seems to galvanize the left, and Mr. Harper said he's not dealing with it.
So for now, it isn't the target the left is itching to have.

note to the Liberals,
Do you really think that having a Trudeau back in the house is going to help you?
hahaha. no... no.. no baggage there!

maybe it'll take the focus off Mr. Dion's er... "performance".

Posted by: marc in calgary at October 16, 2008 12:28 AM

langman -- "if it weren't the arts cuts it would have been something else." I don't actually think it was the arts cuts. I think Quebecers do not like to move out of their comfortable position. As long as they can vote BQ and have other parties attempting to court them, they will keep voting BQ -- unless there is another message that has great appeal for them. (I am not sure what that would be -- they are clearly prepared to thumb their noses at conciliatory gestures from Conservatives) or unless they start getting less attention because they have removed themselves from the ROC. I would suggest it time for some benign neglect of "La Belle Province", just to let them know that two can play at "Je me souviens".

Posted by: LindaL at October 16, 2008 12:47 AM

langman -- I also meant to say "good comment"

Posted by: LindaL at October 16, 2008 12:48 AM

if they haven't yet signed onto Canada's Constitution and aren't willing to be equal partners with each other province and territory, then we should give them 5 years to do so.

Lease 50 year renewable rights to unrestricted free ROC travel through Quebec via the Trans-Canada Highway, with travellers given the option to pay in order to visit the province. Rent the island of Montreal outright for $5 billion/year.

Posted by: PiperPaul at October 16, 2008 12:49 AM

And another long-festering issue...

What about the failed long-gun registry? The time to get rid of the C-68 debacle is here.

Do it now, Mr. Harper! The timing will never be better.

Posted by: Mad Mike at October 16, 2008 12:49 AM

"Sheesh, bitter much Dana?"
Pragmatic, lance. The reality is, the Confederation will not be ruled by anyone not approved of by the french, the losers on the Plains of Abraham
"How is isolating the second most populous province in Canada "Nation building"?"
That was sarcasm, lance, do I really need a /sarc tag?
"Why are you concerned with nation building anyway? Last I saw we all had roads."
Paid for by the ROC lance.
Ontario & Quebec have much nicer roads than the ROC, (so I'm told)
Paid for by the taxpayers of the other (have) provinces.
"Kevin has it right. IMNSHO, Harper blew it by blowing off the arts backlash and not having anyone in Quebec to fight the BQ when they trumpeted it."
The french squealed about the culture gravy train being threatened, while the rest of the worlds economy melts down, and the ROC is supposed to drop all other considerations to assuage the feelings of the artsy-fartsy parasites sucking off the federal teat? Bah.

"And then, to make matters worse, he caved on the tax credits for movies instead of restoring arts funding, oh goody, Gordon Pinset (sp?) calmed down, but every artist in Quebec ramped up."
I'll say it again, they are welcome to fund whatever cultural proclivity they find appropriate, but NOT ON OUR DIME.
Pay for your weirdness' yourself, how is that hard to understand?
'It was a stupid move and Harper himself has admitted it more than once, "I think I was goaded into a statement...."'
Goaded by a media completely in the tank for the Liberal Party (owned in toto by Powercorp) of Canada
"Fact: CPC leading in the polls prior to arts ramping up and CPC third place after."
The very definition of petty. Arrogant beyond belief. Pay for your own damn art.

"Do the math and stop blaming a whole people for having a different set of priorities then to which you subscribe for not voting they way you prescribe."
I am only blaming the short sighted Quebecois that still vote for the Liberals or the Separatists.
Don't get me wrong, lance. I wholeheartedly support the Quebecois and their desire to create their own destiny, but I am sick unto death of financing their freedom.
If the Quebecois stop taking federal money, then (and only then) can they talk about standing on their own.

Posted by: Dana at October 16, 2008 12:51 AM

Nicely said Dana.

Posted by: inquest at October 16, 2008 1:49 AM

I agree with you Linda L and Dana - as for the loud whining of the msm about the cost of the election and the low voter turn out - shouldn't they be grateful that the turn out was low - it will cost tax payers less for the next election.

I was most pleased with the results -imagine 6 NFLDers trying to get along with the likes of Gerald Kennedy and Mr. Deyawn? The west is a sea of blue and has given Mr. Harper a very powerful mandate from the wealthiest region of Canada. After many years of watching Quebec and the antics of the politicians there, I have reached the end of patience; I don't want any of their traitor separatists sitting in the Federal House of Commons. I want them sitting IN Quebec (Hull) in a room with a television. When any item concerning Quebec arises they could be allowed to speak. I want Quebec to pay their separatists with their own money and I want the pensions of all these members (separatists) cashed out right now. When the voters of Quebec reach a decision on a date to separate (or not) the fate of their owned separatist politicians will be decided - if the people of Quebec wish to be part of Canada AGAIN - the Bloc must be dismantled.

Posted by: Jema 54 at October 16, 2008 3:02 AM

PMSH already had a minority. one that could embarrass the hell out of stephalococcus dion regularly.

he called the election in the absence of a non-confidence thinking there was a majority in the air. else why risk anything?

what lizzie borden/may's 'stupid Canadians' got was statistically predictable, but minor, change; in this PMSH failed in the objective of locking in a majority when the nation's mood seemed right to provide it.

win? no. lose? no. draw? yep. stalemate? DEFINITELY.

any sustained minority govt will NOT be because of clever Harper management but rather fatigue and debt on the part of opposition.

Posted by: mr wysiwyg at October 16, 2008 3:17 AM

Amen, lance. What we're seeing is a slow, steady shift. The Conservatives have made substantial, progressive gains in the last three elections.
People frame this minority as a disappointment, but the fact is that NO government is going to have a majority for a long, long time, because of the Bloq. The Liberals HAD support in Quebec when they had majorities under Chretien, but they also had a lot more support in the rest of the country that they don't have now, and they aren't going to rebound in Quebec any time soon.

Outside of Toronto the Liberals won only 47 seats, and only *8* seats west of Ontario; the Conservatives won 71 seats in Ontario and east, and 71 seats west of Ontario. Who's the big winner?

You're right about Quebec, too. If whining about it would change anything I'd find some nose-clips and make as much noise as I could, but for now Quebec and the Bloc is part of the realpolitik in this country. What makes me feel hopeful is this: if the Harper Conservatives can get this close to a majority without Quebec, it opens up the tantalizing possibility that, with a few seats here and there, in the maritimes and Ontario, they could get a majority *without* Quebec. That would not only smash the conventional wisdom that you need Quebec to get a majority, it would also put a sock in Quebec's shameless tendency to scream victimhood even as they're taking billions from taxpayers in the rest of the country. That would be a happy day, IMO.

Thanks for the rational perspective, lance -- there's not nearly enough of that going around. ,

Posted by: EBD at October 16, 2008 3:34 AM

Regarding the Conservatives in Quebec. The Conservatives are just shy of a majority with minimal support in Quebec. A few more seats in Atlantic Canada, Ontario, and B.C. they can form a majority government. If this were to happen I say we go to Quebec and say either quit your constant whining or pick up your toys and get out of our sandbox. At the very least it has to be pointed out they already receive transfer money from equalization. If their arts and culture are so important use this money to fund them.

Posted by: Darin at October 16, 2008 6:57 AM

[quote]I think essentially the BQ works well for Quebec and they really have no need to give it up. They got their prizes from Harper, and they got to remind the rest of us what they think we owe them.[/quote]

The Nation of Quebec is dependant on Canada for its MARKET. The BQ just needs to understand that when they build a wall between Quebec and the rest of Canada that the wall includes thier access to a protected market. (milk boards etc)
It may be possible to goad them into making an agreement with France (EU) and then cut them off.

CBC reporter Chantel ? (quebec) is too good for that worthless organization. It is my observation that CBC thinks their Role in elections is similar to that of a Horse Racing Sec. That is to handicap (adding weight)to all horses such that they all come across the finish line equal.. Just think that one of the best journalist in America, Peter Jennings, left behind that cesspool when he went to ABC.

They (CBC) are what’s wrong in Canada, turn them off and Canadians will be proud of themselves.


Posted by: Slap Shot at October 16, 2008 7:22 AM

Still trying to see where the Conservatives did not do well in the east as per langmann's comment.

Ignoring NF under the idiot Danny boy that leaves the Maritimes. 24 seats between three provinces. Before the election there were 5 conservatives in those 24 seats. Today there are 10 including the first Con in PEI since the 80's.

Posted by: AtlanticJim at October 16, 2008 7:47 AM

It occurs to me, if the left wants to claim the "Progressive" vote, we should claim the Thinking or thoughtful vote.

Posted by: pongo at October 16, 2008 8:36 AM

Buy three years till 2011....the new census redistribution kicks in, new Alberta seats, new 905 and 519 ontario seats and new suburban and BC interior seats....not all but most will go Con.
No new PQ seats. No new 416 seats.

It will be possible to get a majority without any PQ rep, not recommended, it will be very easy with 10 to 15 PQ seats.

Quebecers are smart, once the new seats are in place they have an implicit choice, participate or seperate...there is no threat it just becomes reality. So my suspicion is they will opt to participate, as long as they arent threatened, and right now nobody is threatenting.

Steve, hang on till 2011....your majority will happen. Holding Ontario and BC become the important pieces of the puzzle while leaving the door open on PQ. If cons look like the strong horse in 2011 then PQ will come along, and if they dont you still have a majority and are in a better situation to negotiate terms of divorce.

Cold but real.

Posted by: Stephen at October 16, 2008 9:17 AM

The iron is hot, go for it already

You said it brother!! As for the first strike, my preference is privatizing the official organ of the Canadian Liberal Party, the CBC, or as some brilliant commenter said over at Jay Curries blog, move CBC headquarters to Moose Jaw. Really though, I think the move should come first followed by privatization. Get it out of the centre of the universe and back in touch with the common Canadian. And I'm with you on the wheat board thing, too. So we're facing a recession. Now is the time to reduce the size of this Liberal monstrosity.

Next, comes complete cleanup of the HRCs and a Royal Commission to discover and compensate its victims.

If they can accomplish just those few things over the next four years, we'll see a big, big difference in this country.

I must write a letter to my not new MP.

Does anybody else think we've witnessed the end of political correctness, or at the very least, given it a serious dint?

Posted by: Louise at October 16, 2008 9:18 AM

Perhaps the low voter turnout was due to the fact of having to provide identification or proof. I think in the past many voters came to vote with the same name, especially in the cities, and didn't have to provide ID.

Posted by: greenleaf at October 16, 2008 9:23 AM

Without Quebecs _guaranteed_ 75 seats this country is not viable with a majority government.
======================
That's right, Dana. Until and unless the Bloc disbands, we will likely never have large or even small majority governments in this country. Leftards haven't been able to figure that one out yet. I say count the seats outside of Quebec and you see where Conservatives really stand.

Posted by: Louise at October 16, 2008 9:24 AM

As I have seen posted elsewhere, the great thing about this election has been to financially bankrupt the Liberals. If you want to think grand strategy, the Cons have bent the Libs over and will be running their agenda with Liberal support. It will be a repeat of the last session, but with a Liberal party forced to vote with the government lest they be forced into an election they cannot afford.

PMSH has a coalition majority government (with the Libs) without having to share power or to even be concerned with what the Libs have to say.

I think that this has been part of PMSH's strategy all along.

Posted by: Geoff at October 16, 2008 9:28 AM

Dana:

"But les maudit anglais should continue to send the equalization payments. Hell yes."

Make that "les maudits anglais".

But keep sending the cash regardless!

Posted by: JJM at October 16, 2008 9:34 AM

I find this all humorous.

I was sitting in SUB on the UofA Campus eating lunch with my daughter. Anybody who thinks the NDP won Strathcona because of students ... ha. They won't vote. Not even for who their parents tell them to vote for by golly. They won't even vote unless they happen to be interested and who wants to vote after a discussion about who's 'red meat' is the worst.

Anyway, the reason Linda Duncan won is because students don't vote and she is a lot like the residents in the riding who care to vote ... like my sister who voted for her. Does that sound like Democracy?

The reason most of those apathetic people don't vote is those of us who do, do a damn good job of picking a government that represents us.

The fact is most of us are Conservative (>38%) even if Toronto hasn't figured it out yet. I'm sure the Liberal's understand the potential erosion of their base there.

Posted by: Len at October 16, 2008 9:59 AM

The liberals won previous elections in my riding by 24000 to 17000, this time it was 22100 to 22000. Less than 1 voter per poll and we could have won. Next elections I swear this area turns blue!

Posted by: Aaron at October 16, 2008 10:10 AM

I say a win is a win. You take it and run with it. For the next year at least, Harper can jam literally anything at all down the opposition's throats. The Liberals all got beat, they are all broke and demoralized, their leader is a petulant little nerd who fights like a girl, and they know Canada (outside 905 anyway) thinks they are a bunch of d1cks.

Pretty good position for Harper to be in. Trudeau had less, and he got universal health care done.

So, for any Conservative Party factotums cruising here, this is what I, a fairly normal CPC voter, want.

1. End the gun registry before Christmas. Its an obscene Liberal construction, you just destroyed the Liberals, so get it done. Do not replace it with some other idiot scheme, just dump it.

2. End the HRCs. Remove their empowering legislation, fire them en mass, and investigate the sons of b1tches for criminal abuse of power. Even if none of them get found guilty, five years of investigation hell and legal bills will be a fitting payback for 'em.

3. You'll need to be seen building something, so bring back the Avro Arrow. Make it new and improved, to intercept the Russians over the north pole. Make a whole squadron of 'em, fly them all over the frickin' country to every town fair and dog show. Spend whatever it takes.

In doing so, you will bring back the entire Canadian armament industry from bullets to bombers. There is no reason why we should be buying American aircraft and used German tanks from Holland when the infrastructure exists right here to make our own and export it to boot. Institute a concerted Made In Canada policy for the military with some intelligent planning and some investment in the future where the investment actually makes stuff like airplanes, tanks and rifles.

The damn Lefties are always gassing off about "investing in the future", it'll drive them insane to see you CPC boys n' girls actually doing it.

4. TAX CUT. That will be the engine to drive the Canadian economy out of recession fast. The way to "pay" for the tax cut is to CUT PAYROLL. Fire people. Eliminate entire departments. Decimate the bureaucracy.

Do it quietly, do it carefully, do it by stealth and dead of night if you have to, but do it.

That's what I want. Less government, and a country that stands up in the world.

Posted by: The Phantom at October 16, 2008 10:29 AM

Slap Shot wrote, "They (CBC) are what’s wrong in Canada, turn them off and Canadians will be proud of themselves." Considering that almost no one watches/listens to CBC, I think this isn't likely to make much difference. However, the CBC should go as it refuses to carry out its mandate or even follow its own rules of conduct. Good riddance.

(lance, I tried to email you privately and it's not gone through. Re spelling, you asked about the actor: it's "Pinsent". There's also the fine word "corollary":"colliery" is a coal mine! Cheers.)

Posted by: lookout at October 16, 2008 10:31 AM

I've got a little list:

CBC - away ( to this first it'll make the whining of the Liberal aparatchniks ever so less loud and annoying.)
The gun registry - away (Replace current laws with something less dumb and more liberal.)

HRC's - away. Just GONE.
Wheat Board -away. Just Gone.
CRTC- reformed.
Immigration Reform - do it now.
Gov Money for all the Quango's - Away! Cut cut cut!

And DO THEM NOW so that by next election the doom mongering is shown to be stupid. Get the whining over with.

Posted by: Fred at October 16, 2008 10:33 AM

I was watching CTV election coverage and they had Jean LaPierre on briefly to talk about Quebec. He stated that the Tory did not have an effective organization on the ground in Quebec because they were relying on the ADQ support, who he described as "kids". The Bloc was able to attack PM Harper 3 times a day for the last 4 weeks of the campaign and the Tories didn't fight back even once. I think he is right and that is the reason the Tories didn't make gains in Quebec.

On a different note, it appears that there were shenanigans going on in Elmwood-Transcona here in Winnipeg. The Tories are claiming that there were voting irregularities with a ballot box being left outside and people voting more than once and have filed a complaint with EC.

http://www.winnipegsun.com/canadavotes/news/2008/10/16/7101251-sun.html

In Edmonton, Rahim Jaffer has not conceded the elction and is reported to be calling for a recount.

http://www.edmontonsun.com/canadavotes/news/2008/10/16/7101696-sun.html

Possibly another case of irregularities? Maybe not, but given the visceral haterd NDP supporters have for the Tories in general and PM Harper in particular, I would not be surprised.

Posted by: Brett at October 16, 2008 10:39 AM

Would you guys chill about Quebec's importance!

Bear in mind all that's needed for a majority is five more seats ... 10 short of a majority divided by half.

It is possible to pick up another five seats between Ontario and Atlantic Canada. The seat count in AC doubled this election, from five to 10.

That's about as easy as it is to accomplish.

Five more seats anywhere in Canada, including the real Quebeckers coming to their senses and the majority is there.

Stop with the gloom and doom already.

Posted by: set you free at October 16, 2008 10:41 AM

This all fits in with Harpers incrementalism plans.
As the population shifts westward so too will new seats. Most should turn Conservative.
As the Senate ages and is forced to retire Conservative Senators will replace the Liberal Senators.
The fear factor of the Conservatives becomes greatly reduced as the fear uncertainty and doubt proves to be baseless.
The "kids" from the ADQ mature into people who have been through the fire and survived. We also solidified our previous gains in Quebec.
Culture shift in attitudes towards the Conservatives in Ontario have changed. No longer just a "western" party. How long does this culture shift take in Quebec? Is the ADQ the natural ally of the Conservatives and not the Quebec Liberal party? I would like to see more on the relationships between Conservative people and ADQ and Quebec Liberal and see who really is working with whom and who is backstabbing whom. Charest certainly did not help the Conservative cause during the election.

Posted by: Jay at October 16, 2008 11:25 AM

This was an extremely important election. Harper won - and it was what I call an Internal Win, a win based on a structural shift. Not an emotional win where people are upset about something or angry at the other party (the 2006 win).

This win showed that the infrastructure has changed. Not only more ridings are Conservative but those that were firmly Liberal have almost collapsed their Liberal support. This acknowledges that Harper's mode of governance, which is incremental and decentralized, is working.

The Liberals, the party of Big Central Govt focused around Ontario-Quebec, the welfare state, the Nanny Govt, are out of touch with modern reality. Canada's modern reality is no longer Ontario-Quebec. There's the West; there's Nfld, there's the NORTH. The Liberals don't get it and retain their old structure of centralism and denying these other areas more self-govt. Harper acknowledges and enables this changed structure.

As for Quebec, allowing it to have its own political party, denying universal suffrage to that party, was an error. But you can't go back. We in the ROC feel that Quebec is part of Canada. Quebecers feel that the ROC, Canada, is a foreign country. They feel no filiation with it. Indeed, they view it as handy: they want money and services from it. They have nothing to offer it. In this sense, they've become, rather than self-governing..Quebec has become parasitic.

We should NOT try for more votes in Quebec. Instead, Harper should focus on building this decentralized structure further - in the West, in the North, in the East. Don't pander to Quebec. No more special funding. Ignore it.

The allocation of more seats to the West will nullify Quebec's role. Then, Quebec will have to decide. Does it want to join the Federation of Canada? Yes? Then, participate, put in money, stop being a parasite.

Quebec has no choice. It set itself up, structurally, as a parasite. It has no infrastructure of self-organized economic production, relying on massive federal subsidies (including the 'arts' which it claims as its own). So, it will have to join and be constructive.

But it's up to us, the ROC, to insist that our govt stop pandering to Quebec. It's our money. We reject a parasite in our midst.

Posted by: ET at October 16, 2008 11:29 AM

lookout, thanks. Oops. Fixed corollary.

Posted by: lance at October 16, 2008 11:32 AM

Jay:

New Canada will prevail.

Alberta/B.C. population is more than Quebec's right now, yet Quebec has 75 seats and Alberta/B.C. only has 64.

Whenever the next redistribution happens (last one was in 2004) will be enough to accurately reflect the wishes of the populace.

Populations have always shifted throughout the course of history as people seek better lives for their families.

Saskatchewan's population will also increase, since it has now escaped the marxist yoke. It's a tide that cannot be stopped and the guardians of Old Canada will become increasingly desperate in their redistibution tactics and demonizing those who actually produce the wealth Canada enjoys.


Posted by: set you free at October 16, 2008 11:37 AM

To put things into perspective:

The libs have no money. They must pay back their leadership debt. They must pay back their election debt. They must pay for a new leadership convention. They must save enough to pay for a new election in a few years time. They get less public subsidy. They will have fewer donations (no one backs the "weak horse".) Add to that their lacky shill at Election Canada's mandate must be up soon and will be replaced by anyone else.

Duceppe is retiring (at least he said he was. Frenchmen have a way stabbing you in the back.) If he does, it's unlikely that the Bloc will have a leader 1/10th as effective.

Greens get more money to run next time. More vote splitting. Every conservative should be sending 1/10th of their political donations to the Greens as they cost the Libs votes.

In a few years the economy will be in recovery mode and Harper will be able to claim credit (even though people who aren't half-wits know that the economy rarely rests on the government, there are a lot of half-wits...)

Bush will be a dinstant memory turned into stories told to scare children into behaving themselves.

Obama will have driven the US into the toilet and his "luster" will be tarnished.

The conservatives upward trend will continue. That means Majority next time.

Posted by: Warwick at October 16, 2008 11:38 AM

I have mixed feelings about PR. Majority governments tend to have less spending and regulation than loose coalitions, but as it stands now, Quebec has us forced into a perpetual minority situation even without PR.

Posted by: K Stricker at October 16, 2008 11:45 AM

Speaking of voter turnout, what was the liberal voter turnout in the last session of parliament?
Seems they sat on their hands 43 times instead of voting.
Maybe they were busy and had to wash their hair.
Or perhaps they were too busy with their ongoing project of trying to find a way to steal Jesus off the Cross.
They grabbed pretty much everything else that wasn't nailed down.

Posted by: Stan at October 16, 2008 11:54 AM

PR means Eurosocialism.

There are more people willing to whore their vote for other people's money than willing to work for a living. Every whiner and loser with their hand out (and that includes corporate and union deadbeats as well) will be falling over themselves to get their piece of your pie.

PR means Lib/NDP coalitions forever.

Posted by: Warwick at October 16, 2008 11:54 AM

After looking at the popular vote percentage the next big push will be for a proportional voting system. Then watch for the rise of the lunatic fringe parties to disrupt an already circus act parliament. At least first past the post elects a majority with the same train of thought, proportional allows the goofus groups to align and vote against that majority then nothing in the rational sphere is ever accomplished.

Posted by: Western Canadian at October 16, 2008 11:57 AM

Thumbs down for proportional representation for precisely the reason Western Canadian articulates.

All we need is another dozen lunatic Lizzie Mays forcing themselves into our faces.

As for Quebec, would you people please chill on the issue?

Redistribution, with more seats in Western Canada will take care to those ingrates.

Posted by: set you free at October 16, 2008 12:10 PM

I do not have enough information on what Harpers plans for dealing with Quebec is. He may not have one which would be a gaping hole in his strategy. this seems unlikely.

Keep in mind that not too long ago the Reform party was demonized as a rascist, american, western party. Despite the shrill protestations of he left, Harper has successfully moved that view to the Conservatives being a center, inclusive party. The ethnic votes attracted by the Conservatives have notably not been the radicals that are voting for the Liberals and NDP.

Quebec is in play. The fact that despite the huge outcry in the press and polls against the Conservatives, they still held on to last elections gains. This is a fairly solid base to build on. Not using the established political machinery too means that we can build from the ground up. From a westerners point of view Charest is right up there with Joe Clark. The ADQ seems much more in line with Conservative ideology. If by building the Conservative machinery develops the ADQ machinery provincially, this seems like a two for the price of one deal.

Why can't Quebec culture change too? Who says the staus quo is permanent there? I think this is part of Harpers incremental change.

Posted by: Jay at October 16, 2008 12:12 PM

Well done Lance.

It's good to review the facts and circumstances that led up to these events and a rational evaluation of the results.

Notice that the leftards and the MSM are now whining about "Proportional Representation" now.

Posted by: OMMAG at October 16, 2008 12:17 PM

I'm completely opposed to Proportional Representation. The reason is, because the MP is no longer accountable to his electorate. He's chosen by a political party!

So, the choice of an MP is no longer in the Hands Of The People..but it's been politicized. It's in the control of the whims and favours and hates of a political group in a political party. The people have lost all control of their MPs.

They couldn't, as they have done now, vote out Garth Turner..if Garth was chosen by his friends in the Party. He'd have made sure that those friends would 'owe' him; that he'd have dirt on them that he could expose. No, PR totally removes the power of the people and puts in the hands of a political cabal. It's like the Liberals stacking the Senate with their friends.

Posted by: ET at October 16, 2008 12:55 PM

ET,

True. That and PR has worked so well for Italy...

Posted by: Warwick at October 16, 2008 12:58 PM

"So, the choice of an MP is no longer in the Hands Of The People..but it's been politicized. It's in the control of the whims and favours and hates of a political group in a political party. The people have lost all control of their MPs."

FYI, BC-STV addresses that particular concern rather cleverly.

Regardless I have to agree with Warwick that there are far too many people willing to whore their vote out for other people's money. It's sickening. PR *sounds* like a good idea, but it has some rather nasty unintended consequences. (At least from a libertarian perspective.)

Posted by: K Stricker at October 16, 2008 1:25 PM

DUUUUH Helloooo! "WE THE PEOPLE" do have a constitutional right to end minority governments. If four guys are playng Monopoly at the kitchen table, does the winner have to have more points than the other three combined to win the game?? Who ever conceived the principle of minority government?? WAKE UP CITIZENS!!!

Posted by: Realistik at October 16, 2008 1:31 PM

I do not believe that Harper was gunning for a majority. He got exactly what he was shooting for which is a strong minority and second mandate.

Harper is no dummy. He will have been looking for the maximum bang for his buck and a majority was not it.

While a majority would have guaranteed Harper the ability to pass any legislation he wanted, it would have allowed the opposition - particularly the Liberals - to establish the national narrative against the Conservatives for the next 4 years (amplified by the MSM) and to be able back that narrative up by showing up in full force and voting against every peice of Troy legislation.

There would be no chance of toppling a majority govt, so the Libs would happily rebuild and refill their empty coffers.

Their rhetoric, which they would be able to stand behind would resonate with disaffected Lib supporters, would give them a strong rallyig point.

So a Harper majority would seem to me to most benefit the Liberals - and I don't think Harper is that stupid.

A strong minority ensures means a renewed mandate, but it also means that the Libs will held accountable for their votes in Parliament.

Should they choose to oppose Tory legislation it will come with a steep price - another election that the broke Libs simply cannot afford. Think this campaign was bad for the Libs, imagine the next one fought with zero dollars.

So they now have no choice but to support every single peice of Tory legislation,or face certain ruin. In doing so they will lose what little support and credibility they currently have - bit by humiliating bit.

Doesnt that sound like a much more effective plan to

1) advance a Conservative agenda, and

2) to destroy the current LPC, which will virtually guarantee a Con Majority next election.

The above could not be accomplished with Majority, only with a strong minority.

Harper never did talk about a majority, but he sure was happy to let the opposition and media scare the voters from allowing that to happen. Also happy to have the opposition spend every cent they had trying to stop it.

In the end he forced everybody to overplay their hands and help him get exactly what he wanted in the first place - the ability to govern unobstructed and a tighter noose around the oppositions (particularly the Libs) neck.

Posted by: ward at October 16, 2008 1:39 PM

a long slow squeeze to the neck of the lieberal party.

Harper you magnificent bas tard!

the lieberals go out not with a bang but with a wimp.

Posted by: cal2 at October 16, 2008 1:43 PM

I doubt that we will ever see PR. ET presents one good argument. However, there is another. It is a much more pragmatic argument and it comes from the math. Because of its simplicity, Canada will not have PR. To get PR, we have to ask, who will vote for it?

The CPC just got 37.5% of the vote and 46.4% of the seats. They have no interest in voting for PR which would reduce their seat count to 116.
The Liberals just got 26.2% of the vote and 24.6% of the seats. PR would have allowed them to increase their seat count from 76 to 80 seats in this election - not much change. However, they have bigger ambitions - they want to be in the CPC position in some future election so they also have no interest in voting for PR. The 4 seat "reward" that they did not get this election is a small price to pay for what they hope to be a majority in a later election.
The BQ got 10.0% of the vote (42.9% of the Quebec vote) and 66.7% of the seats in Quebec. We could argue over whether, under PR, the BQ should get 10% of Canada's seats (31) or 42.9% of Quebec's seats (32). Either way, it is quite a drop from the current count of 50. So the BQ will not support such a proposal.

Only the NDP and parties that do not have a seat in Parliament (Greens, et.al.) gain under such a system. PR will not happen because it is a system that only benefits interests that do not have the political power to make it happen and it punishes those interests who do have the political power to make it happen.

The discussions about PR only indicate a slow news day. They are not indicators about coming constitutional change.

Posted by: Brent Weston at October 16, 2008 1:55 PM

ward - exactly right. A majority now would be bad politics.

First, you don't want to win a majority or any election only on emotional factors. The 2006 Harper win was emotional - the voters against the Liberal corruption.
But emotional wins are open to emotional losses. You need a structural win.

And that's what Harper did this time; the win was structural. Voters like his policies and are voting for them..as part of the structure of govt.

But after generations of Liberal Big Govt and nanny statism, changing the infrastructure takes time. It has to be done slowly and incrementally. And non-emotionally. That has to be a larger minority win now.

and exactly, perfectly, as you point out, a larger minority win now, means that the Harper govt isn't pushed into an emotional situation where the opposition can rant and scream but fail to bring down the govt only because of their low numbers.

In this situation, they have to help the govt; they can't afford an election. And they can't push the public into an election only for their own political gain. Now, we have a govt that can work. The last one was constant bashing, silly motions (Kyoto) and Senate stonewalling.

It's a perfect strategic win.

Posted by: ET at October 16, 2008 2:03 PM

Unfortunately there is no way Harper can acknowledge the above scenario, so the media will be allowed to continue to play the "failed majority" canard. I don't imagine Harper really cares though, as table has now been set.

Game, set and match for Harper.

Posted by: ward at October 16, 2008 2:20 PM

ward:

That's an interesting hypothesis. I have entertained the idea myself but wondered if Harper could actually be that precise. If this was the design, it certainly required an almost surgical precision to achieve the desired results. While not entirely persuaded, I confess to at least giving serious consideration to the idea. Frankly, it is the only strategy that explains why he (a rather masterful strategist) almost deliberately tossed Quebec away in what appeared on the surface to be some poorly thought out remarks.

If your hypothesis is correct, then I think one of his main goals is to be able to convince the electorate that the Liberals are going to support his non-hidden agenda in the incremental move to the right of the policies of the nation.

That this incremental move is proceeding at a glacial pace is beyond dispute. Too bad we do not have global warming - the glacier would move at a quicker pace.

Posted by: Brent Weston at October 16, 2008 2:31 PM

I am not optimistic of a majority next time. It will still be many year before BC and Alberta will get enough additional seats to make a difference. Also, in 2004, when BC/Alberta got 5 new seats, Ontario got 3 and you can bet they were in the GTA which is still Lib country, so our net gain was only 2 seats.

I looked at the results of the election and identified only about 6 or 7 seats outside Quebec which the CPC has a chance of making gains. Even if the Tories took them all, lost none of their current seats and even managed to get Bill Casey and Andre Arthur into the caucus, they're still a few seats short. Harper could kiss up to Danny Millions and gain back the 3 seats he lost in NL, but then we're still looking at the barest majority and that assumes absolutely nothing goes wrong.

Throw in a better leader for the Liberals (and really, could they do any worse?) and a majority is impossible without some significant change of Conservative fortunes in Quebec.

Posted by: RM at October 16, 2008 2:32 PM

Correction: BC/Alberta got 4 additional seats in 2004, while Ontario got 3, so a net gain of only one seat for the West.

Posted by: RM at October 16, 2008 2:45 PM

You're most welcome, lance! "Corollary"'s a great word, isn't it?

(You notice I didn't say, "No problem": IMO, what dumbed down, ungracious bafflegab.)

Posted by: lookout at October 16, 2008 2:46 PM

RM:

The demographics of New Canada will eventually win.

Alberta, with a population increase of 200,000 since 2004, is already in line for two more seats and that's with totally unfair representation.

Alberta, B.C. and Ontario' s average constituency is more than 100,000 per riding. At the other extreme, PEI has one MP per 32,000 population.

Outside the GTA, Ontario is going anti-Liberal, NDP in the north and Conservative in other areas.

Atlantic Canada has returned twice the members of Conservative MP's that it did last time.

The era of the fearmonger is drawing to a close.

Posted by: set you free at October 16, 2008 2:56 PM

"PR will not happen because it is a system that only benefits interests that do not have the political power to make it happen.."

Bingo!!

Posted by: Louise at October 16, 2008 3:03 PM

There is a another winner in this last election that has not been mentioned. That winner is Preston Manning. For those of us who were early Reform Party members, this is a subdued victory, but it is a victory that was birthed by the Reform movement. We remember the early days when the supporters were vilified as racist, dinosaurs, and other such terms. Not everyone remembers the very early days when the charges of racism and other derogatory remarks came from inside Alberta itself such as from the Calgary Herald and the Edmonton Journal. Alberta and BC did not stay long in this mode, but then Saskatchewan and Manitoba needed to be won over. Saskatchewan was persuaded first and then Manitoba became more comfortable with the idea. The party changed names and did soften some of its policies (hence the subdued in subdued victory) but there was a time when Ontario simply would not vote for the same party where Alberta conservatives (and especially social conservatives) were running for public office. I see this last election as the first time in my life where Ontario has become comfortable with Alberta conservatives. Alberta is a place where social conservatives can run and hold office. The electorate (even in Alberta) do not want them making major modifications in social policy but they are not wildly socially progressive either. Albertans have learned that these people often possess ethics and integrity to a greater degree than what is often found in politics.

Most Westerners consider the Mulroney Conservatives as people who were representing Ottawa's policies to us and were not representing our policies to Ottawa. The old PCs were only a mechanism to vote not-Liberal but we could never really think of the PC Party as being our own. Politics is, unfortunately, a compromising exercise. Reform/Alliance/Conservative has been moderated since the Manning days. However, Ontario has moved as well. What we saw this week was hoped for but not possible 10 years ago. Even the low voter turnout tells a story. The MSM has still tried to copy the early claims of the Herald and Journal (racist dinosaur has been replaced by scary hidden agenda) but the effect is wearing off. It took Alberta the least amount of time to become comfortable with the son of a Premier who governed well for 25 years; the other provinces in the west took a little longer and Ontario has taken even longer. However, those voters who did not vote have indicated that they do not view Harper as scary - even if they are not yet persuaded to vote for him. Had the MSM been successful in convincing the electorate in regard to their charges against Harper, the voter turnout would have been much larger. Danny Williams, the MSM, and other ABC types failed.

It will take a few more years for most of Ontario to actually trust Conservatives but Ontario no longer fears Conservatives of the Alberta variety. This is, itself, a big victory. That the Conservatives are not really conservative qualifies the victory as a subdued victory. Finally, Canadians certainly made the best choice when all the options were considered.

Posted by: Brent Weston at October 16, 2008 3:37 PM

Set You Free: Eventually, perhaps, but you're talking about decades. The Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act calls for a review every 10 years. We won't see another readjustment until 2013 or later. The soonest BC/Alberta can hope to catch up with Quebec in seat count would be 2023.

Posted by: RM at October 16, 2008 3:41 PM

RM:

We're in 2008.

Review and change scheduled for 2014. That's six years away.

So, we have to get through at least one more election and by that time the tide will already be turning thanks to financial disparities among the parties.

Liberal supporters are notorious cheapskates. They've never had to actually take any money out of their pockets. Their party funding, obviously, was done through kickbacks on fake contracts with their buddies.

More details are due to come out during this term.

This Conservative Party, with its strong Reform roots, and the NDP are used to surviving on small donations.

They'll be fine.

One more thing. When the Cadman lawsuit gets to the court, that will totally bankrupt the Liberal Party.

Have I missed any negatives that would outweight any of these points I've articulated?

Hold your head up high. Western Canada has shown the way to the future and Old Canada will have no choice but to follow.

Posted by: set you free at October 16, 2008 4:04 PM

SYF,

Even if the CPC wins its lawsuit against the libs (and that isn't guaranteed) the liberal judges won't give the CPC their friend's money.

Posted by: Warwick at October 16, 2008 4:20 PM

Warwick:

It'll be interesting to see how the lawsuit plays itself out.

Parties make all kinds of deals we never hear about.

Harper's assertion of ‘financial considerations' meant the party's support for Cadman in an election should he cast the vote that brought down the Liberal government of the day.

To allege it was a million-dollar insurance policy would be a literal impossibility, since no insurance company would issue a policy on a man who had terminal cancer.

Maybe that's the way the Liberal Party does business with their corporate buddies ... I dunno.

What I do know is that Harper is confident enough in what he meant and what he said that he has a good chance to win the case.

If there were some shenanigans, why would the lawsuit still be alive today? It was used as a smear during the political campaign, but a court of law is much different than the court of public opinion.

Posted by: set you free at October 16, 2008 4:44 PM

SYF,

I'm not saying the case has no merit. I'm saying the judge they argue it in front of most likely owed their job to Chretien after services rendered to the Liberal Party.

Since when has the law stood in the way of a judge's preferences?

Posted by: Warwick at October 16, 2008 4:51 PM

SYF: To get technical, the review will take place in 2012, after the results of the 2011 census are compiled. Then it takes a minimum of one year for the changes to be verified and then they come into effect at the time of the next election. So, the earliest we would see new seat allocation would be 2013, but it could take longer depending on when the next election is called, so it could be 2014, 2015, even 2016.

Now, realistically, BC and Alberta can expect 4 to 6 new seats with each readjustment. Since we are currently 11 seats behind Quebec, we won't get there in one census period. It will require at least two, so it won't happen until sometime in the 2020s and that assumes our population boom will continue indefinitely.

Posted by: RM at October 16, 2008 4:52 PM

RM:

In the meanwhile, would it be good politics for Old Canada to continue biting the hand that feeds them?

Posted by: set you free at October 16, 2008 5:13 PM

Interesting thought about the BQ preventing a majority and raising the ire of the CPC supporters here....

Without the split on the right, the Liberals probably feel quite similar feelings about the West.

Posted by: lance at October 16, 2008 5:49 PM

Why does Quebec get all the fun? Its high time we had a referendum in the ROC on whether we really want Quebec to stay in Canada instead of the other way around? The French can sit this one out, won’t cost the4m a penny. If they can't act like adults boot them out! Why the hell should we pay for a federal separatist party. A provincial one I can understand, but to corrupt our election with a 75 seat lock with a steadily declining population is stupid. Why should there votes mean more than ours, to a party that hates this country?

Posted by: Revnant Dream at October 16, 2008 7:45 PM

Agree with Brent Weston.,..and I am an Ontario Reformer since 1993...still have my Reform lapel pin ...as a reminder!

During this current campaign, I was working for CPC candidate in Mississauga-Erindale...Bob Dechert, third time running...won by a squeaker! Now the only Tory MP in Mississauga...

My scrutineering partner, also a Reformer, pointed out that the trend for 'real conservatives' has been upward since the '90s, from 1 seat, to 55, to 99 to 125, to (now) 143.

There is a strong trend line that supports what Brent has said...the rest of Canada is beginning to accept conservativism from a western Canada base.

Let's move on...this election WAS a victory!

Posted by: duane sharp at October 16, 2008 8:01 PM

ET: "And that's what Harper did this time; the win was structural. Voters like his policies and are voting for them..as part of the structure of govt."

Respectfully, and from inside government, I would say this is not, in fact, true. I would venture that the CPC and Stephen Harper were the direct beneficiaries of Stephane Dion's (incompetent) leadership, and not by any perceived public view of the CPC's stewardship. Had Ignastief been the leader, the results would have been markedly different. Dion's inability as an ESL, and his ridiculous clinging to the green shift debacle pushed even his core away.

The reality is, the CPC have not done as good a job as they should have. Their NUMBER ONE priority in the next year is to take control of the bureaucracy of government. At the moment, the civil service is rudderless and the expertise is retiring. 13 years of structural retooling has left a bureaucracy free from the control of political oversight, steeped in Liberal ideology, and polluted with managerial featherbedding and incompetence. They need to be talking to their frontline civil servants, not to the Ottawa mandarins and hangers-on.

This should have been dealt with in the last two years and wasn't. As a consequence there are departments which are failing badly under their Liberal governance models, and when Sheila Fraser catches up with some of them, the public will scream outrage; its coming.

The CPC won't be able to blame the Liberals much longer. This time around they will carry the burden of responsibility. Many of the corrections require significant legislative changes. To be successful going forward, the CPC will have to be especially aggressive in bringing legislation into the house. They burned a significant portion of their grassroots constituency in the first go around. They won't be given a third chance.

Posted by: Skip at October 16, 2008 9:36 PM

Thanks inquest.

JJM, admit the cursed english have supported your french-ness through 3 centuries, and without the relatively benign rule of the British Empire and her leftover Dominion there is little chance the Colony of New France would have survived this long.

Be a proud Quebecois JJM, say no to the Federal cash.

Posted by: Dana Arnason at October 16, 2008 9:42 PM

Phantom: ". TAX CUT. That will be the engine to drive the Canadian economy out of recession fast. The way to "pay" for the tax cut is to CUT PAYROLL. Fire people. Eliminate entire departments. Decimate the bureaucracy."

It may come as a surprise to you but this has already happened. In fact, the civil service has dropped below its ability to provide essential services in many departments. Critically, staffing is especially low in areas of law enforcement and in the financial and judicial sectors. In my division alone, we are almost half our workforce from 5 years ago, and we are now below our ability to provide regulatory oversight that Canadians are entitled to and demand. Our burn-out rate is at an all time high. All of us have case loads that no one in the private sector would accept.

Its a perpetual myth that countries with modern economies can exist without a substantial bureaucracy. They can't. Ultimately, if a country is to have an equitable and ethical legal, regulatory and supportive governance, it must staff the functions. Notwithstanding the kumbayah crowd, individual citizens left to their own devices will not of their own volition, act in the public good.

Posted by: Skip at October 16, 2008 9:56 PM

skip - I completely and totally agree with you about the civil service. It's a corrupt mess, and just as you say, polluted with Liberal ideology and featherbedding. I think that now that Harper has a near-majority, he can take them on. Just as he's thrown down the gauntlet to the Senate. But I fully agree with you about the unfettered and self-serving civil service.

I also agree with you about the 'assistance' that an incompetent Dion played in assisting the CPC success. Dion's problem is not merely his inability to speak the language of over 80% of the population, but, his inability to even relate to anyone outside of the cocooned academic Seminar room. And the Green Shift, which was really a tax shaft -

I don't know what you mean by the CPC 'burned a significant proportion of their grassroots constituency'.

But, I think that Harper's policies of decentralization, his foreign affairs policies, his various economic measures which included a focus on small business and entrepreneurial initiatives - weren't unnoticed and played a role.

However, since the CPC can't rely on the MSM to make its agenda and policies public, a major problem has been, and remains, that the public simply don't know about the enormous accomplishments of the Harper govt.

I undertook to find out and list some of them, pertaining only to Ontario. It was excruciatingly difficult to find the information on the Govt Web Pages. It most certainly wasn't in the newspapers. But, what I found out was quite astonishing - the govt investment in Great Lakes clean up, water treatment plants and projects in Ontario, massive road work, the govt investment in public transportation in Toronto (and elsewhere); the hybrid buses, the money for rapid transit..on and on and on.

The immigration settlement houses set up, the assistance to establishing small and medium businesses, the focus on integration of immigrants, the tax reductions...again..on and on.

All kept silent by our local media.

The CPC doesn't publicize its actions well enough. Since it can't rely on the mass media, which are almost all firmly pro-Liberal, then, it has to find another strategy to make its accomplishments public.

Posted by: ET at October 16, 2008 10:03 PM

Good points, Skip. Perhaps the bureaucrats from the various Federal health departments could be reassigned to actual essential services such as the judiciary and the military, and leave the health care issue to the Provinces, where the Constitution places responsibility.

Posted by: Dana Arnason at October 16, 2008 10:16 PM

“Harper squandered $300 million by calling this election.”

Queen Adriane’s lunch tab was bigger than that.

Posted by: Bernie at October 16, 2008 10:43 PM

Tooting my own horn a bit Skip but see my post at 1:39.

Harper, by winning a minority only, has just cleared the decks moving forward far more than he would of if he had won a majority.

The changes you refer to will start to happen now, because the Liberals have exactly ZERO ability to fight another election. That was not the case prior to now.

Best part is the Libs and the media did most of the heavy lifting for him in preventing the majority that would have saved the bacon of the LPC.

Posted by: ward at October 16, 2008 11:24 PM

If Harper really wants to get another 10 seats in Atlantic Canada he should significantly reduce the cost of travel for people and shipped goods on the crown corporation Marine Atlantic ferry system. Take the extra costs out of the ACOA budget if you want. This one move will reduce personal and business costs throughout the whole region. Everything bought and sold on the island has a cost which can be traced back to the ferry. It could probably be done for less than 200 million a year, split between 4 provinces. If Harper is serious about ensuring Canada remains comppetitive this is one move which would prove to me he is serious. Again, I am not asking for a handout to the region but a "shifting" of the spending priority in Atlantic Canada.

Posted by: Glenn at October 16, 2008 11:52 PM

ET, I wouldn't say the civil service is corrupt. That's not my experience. It is managerially incompetent in many departments. The Peter Principle full and truly illustrated. The liberals did two particularly egregious things to many departments: they converted them to agencies, and they decided to corporatize them. Neither has worked.

Making them agencies allowed them to isolate departments from direct parliamentary oversight, and it did allow the m to break up the impact of the PSAC. While there are some benefits in the latter from a public purse perspective, there are large disadvantages from the frontline performance perspective. The new "corporate" structures relied heavily on external "expertise", preferring to farm out contracts to former bureaucrats, "family consultants" etc, with the result that the institutional knowledge gained over decades has been tossed aside for what the agencies believe the private sector does.

Unfortunately, the work of government departments, especially those that enforce and regulate, have no private sector analogue, neither in functional content, not in scale. In short, there is no private sector corporate model that can apply to the service delivery needs of government agencies. As a consequence of trying, many departments are in disarray, and their institutional wisdom, their employees, are retiring early because they can no longer do the job required and are fed up with the frustration. We are talking about issues here that are costing taxpayers billions of dollars in lost opportunities and in direct loses or failed recoveries. This is the true legacy of the previous 13 years of Liberal rule. The Liberals are spectacularly incompetent as managers.

I don't know what you mean by the CPC 'burned a significant proportion of their grassroots constituency'.

A good many people supported the CPC originally on a variety of grass roots issues - I'll use the best known - the gun registry. Notwithstanding the need for difficult legislative tweaking, much could have been done to fix the issues that exist with that legislation through the use of Orders in Council and through the regulatory management structure. Instead, Stock Day has let the RCMP, through the Provincial Chief Firearms Officers continue to develop the Liberal plan. Two things Stock could have done immediately upon taking office the first time - kill the Canadian Firearms Center, gut the registration system through OIC amendments (until he could get legislation changed), and brought the Chief Firearms Officers fully back under federal control, instead of allowing them to remain political puppets of the provinces - they are federal appointments, only provincial by memoranda of understanding.
The anger amongst the 15 million gun owners in Canada over this issue is palpable- many have basically said screw the CPC through their inaction. If the alternatives weren't presently so egregiously worse, many would have voted for other than the CPC. Look at the NDP take across Northern Ontario. These folks are gun-owning hunters. Why would they vote for the NDP who will confiscate their guns given the chance (other than most of them haven't registered anything)? Certainly other factors are in play, but Northern Ont should have been so blue you couldn't tell it from sky. There are other constituencies just as unhappy.

There are quite a few senior liberal hack bureaucrats that should have had their contracts bought out and simply released, but instead Harper kept them, promoted them, and to this day they continue to wreak havoc with policy implementation. The worst example being External Affairs.

The Health dept issues have largely been fabrications of the Liberals and the NDP - those two parties regularly talked about health care provisions at the federal level which are the sole responsibility of the provinces, but most people don't know any better. The things the health department focuses on are for the most part national issues and rightly fall within federal purview. Same with many of the aboriginal issues - the actual issues, like Caledonia, are a provincial matter, not a federal one, the courts have ruled on that many times. McGuinty simply lacks the guts to do what needs to be done there.

Posted by: Skip at October 17, 2008 12:56 AM

so evertbody saw the election unfold. as i have said in the past there will never be a conservative majority in canada again. why? because 60% of all canadians vote for some form of socialism, canadians aren't very bright.

Posted by: old white guy at October 17, 2008 6:54 AM

You could be right old white guy, but on the other hand we've had the Liberal state funded propaganda machine churning out leftist indoctrination for years as well. If the CBC were privatized and not so prone to influence via a Liberal Party appointed board of directors, that might change.

I've also been hearing some horror stories about people being unable to vote due to new regulations about identity cards and irregular and confusing opening and closing polling hours. THAT really sucks!! I don't care if they all vote leftie, no one who wants to vote should have to face barriers like that.

Heck. Even I've got a quirky story to tell. I received two voting cards in the mail. Both were for me, but one had my first two names on it and the other had my third name, which is the one I go by. I could have voted twice if I wasn't an honest person.

There is something seriously wrong with our election logistics.

Posted by: Louise at October 17, 2008 11:18 AM
Site
Meter