I give up. What are Ve, C and L supposed to represent?

that's some bad graph harry

That's some of the funniest engineering smarm I've seen since forever!

Syncro

Looks more like a Jack Layton's thought pattern.

As I said, NV53, "a detailed description [...] can be found in the Vitruvius's Experimental Election Predictor essay at The Sagacious Iconoclast blib". I'd rather put it there, thus off-loading traffic from Kate's to Google's Blogspot, so I ask that you consult that link for further information.

The 2nd graph looks great. Now just attach the global temperature record onto it, and I'll put it in my next movie.

Good work!

Given, Syncrodox, that smarm means "excessive but superficial compliments given with affected charm", I can't honestly say that I grok your comment on the matter of "engineering smarm".

O.K.

I stand corrected Vit. You obviously have done the work towards providing the mathematical evaluation and prediction of political events.

I still stand by my original comment:)

Syncro

Vitruvius,

Do you have the veep-table-Ve-2006.png data in table form ... and if so, would you mind sharing it?

Well, I wouldn't go that far, Syncrodox ~ "mathematical evaluation and prediction of political events" ~ that's why the word Experimental is in the title of the measure. For the record and to be clear, I have no sound scientific or causal basis for Ve.

Maybe there is one; maybe someone smarter than me will point out that C² - L² is some famous statistical measure. Or maybe not, maybe it just sort-a works, at least recently (tomorrow is another day).

So it is in that sense that I agree with your invocation of "engineering" in regard to this concept: engineers are perfectly willing to make charts that work in practice even if the scientists and mathematicians aren't happy about some sort of missing abstraction.

It was the "smarm" I didn't grok.

Dis is not fair! Do you tink it's eazzy to read a graph?

Vit

No disrespect intended...you spotted the play.

Syncro

WOW! Vit, I'm impressed, man. Now, WTF does it all mean?

No disrespect taken, Syncrodox, indeed, you gave me the opportunity to mention C² - L², for those playing along at home.

And, Ural, I have the HTML <table> version of the veep-table-Ve-2006.png data, if that's useful, but I don't have any sort of reasonably structured raw data, just two very obscure Perl programs that generate the HTML tables from this data:

2006 103 124 308 30.2  36.3  CPC  . .    29 17.5 51 10.5  .  .    .   .
2004 135  99 308 36.7  29.6  CPC  . .    19 15.7 54 12.4  .  .    .   .
2000 172  66 301 40.8  25.5  CAP 12 12.2 13  8.5 38 10.7  .  .    .   .
1997 155  60 301 38.9  19.4  RP  20 18.8 21 11.1 44 10.7  .  .    .   .
1993 177  52 295 41.2  18.7  RP   2 16.1  9  6.9 54 13.5  .  .    .   .
1988  83 169 295 31.9  43.0  PCP  . .    43 20.4  .    .  .  .    .   .
1984  40 211 282 28.0  50.0  PCP  . .    30 18.8  .    .  .  .    .   .
1980 147 103 282 44.4  32.5  PCP  . .    32 19.7  .    .  .  .    .   .
1979 114 136 282 40.1  35.9  PCP  . .    26 17.9  .    .  6  4.6  .   .
1974 141  95 264 43.2  35.5  PCP  . .    16 15.4  .    . 11  5.1  .   .
1972 109 107 264 38.4  35.0  PCP  . .    31 17.8  .    . 15  7.6  .   .
1968 154  72 264 45.5  31.4  PCP  . .    22 17.0  .    .  .    . 14 4.4
1965 131  97 265 40.2  32.4  PCP  . .    21 17.9  .    .  5  3.7  9 4.7
1963 128  95 265 41.7  32.7  PCP  . .    17 13.2  .    . 24 11.9  .   .
1962  99 116 265 37.17 37.22 PCP  . .    19 13.6  .    . 30 11.6  .   .

If there's a good reason for it, I could modify one of the Perl programs to produce an Excel spreadsheet, I s'pose; let me know what you have in mind.

Pardon me, Vitruvius ... it was right there. Interesting theory!

What it all means, Bob, is that if the historic predictive value of Ve holds for this election, then to the degree those lovely coloured curves fall above the dark blue line at Ve = 8, it is more likely that the Conservatives will get a majority, and to the extent they fall below that line, it is more likely that the Conservatives will not get a majority. And you know, I wish I'd said that in the first place, but it can be sometimes difficult to argue with oneself. Thanks for pushing the question, Bob.

Just a thought... You're showing all of the polls except the ones that really mattered: Election results.

Any chance you can add another data set where real (won) percentages can be compared against those of the polling companies?

I ask only because I heard that in the US, the dems generally polled about 15% (on average) higher than their actual election results. I'm curious if we'll see the same trend here...

Vit

On another thought...do you know if an antonym to misogynistic exists?

Syncro

The exact values of Ve for all the election results since 1962 are shown in the last two tables in the Vitruvius's Experimental Election Predictor essay at The Sagacious Iconoclast blib, Richard. Also, under the detailed descriptions of the Ve graphs for the 2004 and 2006 elections therein, you will find that the closing values of the polls were about two points higher for Ve than were the final election results.

According to those large-in-the-mass-sense books I'm using to hold my
shelves down, Syncrodox, philogynistic is "an antonym to misogynistic".

But, unless I miss your point, isn't that off topic?

Re: Antonym to misogyny ..... "philogyny" ...????

As for predicting elections, I prefer 'gut feel'... 24 hours before election day. Btw .. can you place a money bet on the Canadian federal election somewhere like LasVegas or London betting emporiums???

The exact values of Ve for all the election results since 1962 are shown in the last two tables...

Can those values be plotted on the charts you've got in the above post? The visual representation of actual results against the predicted results could be effective. It would also give you an indication of whether you're on the right track with your predictor would it not?

After trying to understand how the Liberals will make the Green Shift revenue neutral, these charts look dead simple:-)

If you want to put money on it go to:

http://esm.ubc.ca/CA08/index.php

Vit - Thanks - that worked for me.

Entirely off topic...but I thought you were the guy to ask. Philogyny or philogynistic traits are apparent in the MSM and I thought a Latin understanding dude such as yourself might help me out with finding the correct word to summarize the crapulence of the likes of Heather Malick

Syncro

Good point, Richard, it would be insightful to have the final values shown as bullet-points on the 2004, 2006, and soon to be 2008 detail graphs in my Ve essay. I've made a note to add that to the next version of the software; thanks for the suggestion.

As to the apparent two-point poll bias against the final results for the last two elections: that's one of the things I'll be watching for in this election. It will be interesting to see if that holds, yet, you know, you can never tell when it might go the other way too.

We shall see; as Isaac Asimov said, "The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds new discoveries, is not 'Eureka!' but 'That's funny...'". What I'd like to know is why the Ve breakpoints, as measured, are not symmetric, and are off-center to boot.

Could the numbers from the various polling firms be combined to make one line?
The resulting line may be smoother and it would be easier see the general trend. Polling prejudices from the various firms may also tempered and counter balance each other.

It could be called the Grand Unified Theory of VEEP

"philogynistic is "an antonym to misogynistic". But, unless I miss your point, isn't that off topic?"

From the Greek word phylo - “flaky pastry”

I think Sychro is referring to how the leftwing political parties of North America love flakes. But chiefs warn that: when working with phylo care must be taken, as it has a tendency to dry out very quickly and become fragile.

Vit

That's why I like entomology.....flaky pastry...as Cal points out, is fragile.

Syncro

I don't think that attempting to consolidate the various pollsters' plots into some sort of single computed curve would be a good idea, Cal; it seems to me that part of the beauty of Ve as currently promulgated is that, when you look into the detailed plots, you get some sort of immediate information as to which pollsters were, at least historically speaking, closer to the mark, and with a single number, yet, already.

And besides, if we only had one line, we would lose all the pretty colours!

What the graphs and formula don't allow for is the fickle finger of fate; the stupid gaffes, the fumbled footballs, the abysmal ignorance of the electorate at large. Our elections have come down to hoping like hell that the other party leader f**ks-up royally so that your leader (ad agencies actually) can put the boots to him. Platforms issues? Riiight....
Oh, I just received my 'Critical Issues ' survey yesterday...lots of references to 'there may be an election this fall'.
Either Canada Post has screwed the CPC or we need a whole new marketing team. This 'survey' is a total load of bollocks; one normally waits for an answer before announcing the result.

I agree, DaninVan, that "the graphs and formula don't allow for the fickle finger of fate", what I'm more interested in, at least for the purposes of this specific Ve exercise, is whether or not they reflect said finger in the data as recorded. The matter of allow is metaphysical; I'm only considering the epistemological here.

"What I'd like to know is why the Ve breakpoints, as measured, are not symmetric, and are off-center to boot."

Ok - just a quick look at the data. I think the answer lies with the NDP and the Bloc.

The NDP takes votes from the Libs ... which doesn't really translate into seats for the NDP, but loses seats for the Libs. In the last 15 elections NDP vote % translated into -7.2% less seats ... Libs on the other hand meant 6.04 more seats (3.24 Libs last election, -8.08 NDP).

The Bloc on the other hand have taken an average of 4.37% more seats than votes over the last 5 elections (6.06% the last election).

I don't think so, Ural. It seems to me that the obvious vote splitting that goes on within the left in Canada would have the effect of rendering the polled Ve values to be lower than as measured in the actual elections, not higher as we have actually observed for the the last two elections. It almost seems like it's more a matter that when Canadians think about voting, they look to the Conservatives, but at the last minute they chicken out. On the other hand, of course, it could just be that the polls are corrupt.

Metaphysical quantification...been done.

Syncro

metaphysical quantification keeps the trolls at bay. good strategy.

Would it be possible to get a sound bite of this please.Just of the first graph.I,m doing a project for a demonstration in an old age home and some of the older ones dont see too well.And when the braille model comes out would you please post it.

Would it be possible to get a sound bite of this please.Just of the first graph.I,m doing a project for a demonstration in an old age home and some of the older ones dont see too well.And when the braille model comes out would you please post it.

Sorry if i stuttered there.

Wow, Vitruvius! Pretty colours! Crazy pattern!

Crazy Canada?

Doesn't this reveal something about both the reliability of polls (after Vitruvius has inserted actual election results into his chart!) and also, something about the reliability of different pollsters?

Since these charts are a measurement of predictions, then, we can certainly evaluate the predictors!

Or, the chicken-nature of Canadians.

Or both.

Syncro

does the math take into account bribing canadians with their own money?

It's kind of interesting. OTOH, I don't need this function to know that Tories have minority in bag and are heading towards majority.

My gut feeling is that they will make it, or at least a greatly increased minority, in area of 140 seats. Polling seems to have lost accuracy recently with advent of cell phones and caller ID, where the same sample of population is called by many polling organizations.

I find election polls a bit useful in evaluating momentum. It seems clear Conservatives have all the momentum, and the nightmare scenario of the left, with rest of parties fighting for non-Tory vote, seems to be happening.

Watching Dion in debate, especially if he tries to win the thing, should be fascinating and fun.

Right - it's fun to be bribed with one's own money. It makes one 'pause'...Here are the bribes at the moment:

"Stéphane Dion promised farmers $1.2 billion over four years Friday, taking the Liberals' campaign pledges past the $80 billion mark -- $80.183 billion to be precise, according to calculations by Canwest News Service. The Conservatives, cheapskates that they are, have pledged less than $2 billion, while the NDP is at $16.5 billion."

Hey, vitruvius, can we have a chart showing the relation between Bribes and Polls? Are we Canadians not only chicken but stupid?

Good work Vitruvius !!

Perhaps, Vit, you should make an additional graph using the ndp, no ? Perhaps the Liberal friendly pollsters/media "methods" conceal a ndp take over of second spot ?

After all, WK pontificates the liberals may be in free fall.

Oh, and why does wk think the libs will do badly ? Personality thingies, gang wars within the party - nothing to do with policies or anything important, ya see.

[The short answer - the cliché - is that we didn't leave the Liberal Party, the Liberal Party left us. Like many clichés, it has the added value of actually being true. Throughout 2002 and 2003, the Liberal Party of Canada was transformed into a virtual abbatoir by the Paul Martin people. As with their predecessors in the Khmer Rouge and suchlike, the Martinites devised all sorts of loyalty tests, and sought the fealty of those who - like them - would stop at nothing, literally nothing, to drive Jean Chrétien from power.] kinsella

Perhaps Canadians are finally seeing what many in the Liberal Party really stand for - hatefull fascism.

After all, does this sound like someone who should be the right-hand man of a Prime Minister ? Or working for the CHRC ?

[I dubbed myself a "Liberal In Exile," and did all that I could do to make the lives of the Martinites a living Hell. I enjoyed every minute of it, and I and my fellow exiles celebrated their slide into minority status - and, two years later, their loss of government. I despised them. Many other Liberals felt as I did, but few said so publicly.] kinsella

Enjoyed every minute of it, eh ? (But thanks for helping to dump United Martinations)

I shouldn't have said that..after all..a chicken IS stupid.

Now, the big area for the Conservatives to move into, and the most difficult, are the three big cities: Vancouver, Montreal, Toronto. These are cocooned realities. The people in them are shielded from reality by miles and miles of superhigways, shopping plazas and malls and zillions of latte-shops...and safe, secure government funded jobs in the bureaucracy, teaching, health, social services, academia.

They have no understanding of what happens in the Real World. They vote Liberal because this is the party that supports a two class social system made up of the Big Govt and its bureaucracies, whose elite intellectuals engage in the social engineering of the peasantry outside the urban area. Or inside it..as the lowly small businessman, taxidriver, non-unionized worker, etc.

The Conservative focus on the reasoning powers of the individual, on individual work and merit, on smaller govt, on small and medium business - this scares the few thoughts left in the minds of these cocooned elitists. They don't want to do anything on their own; they want security, comfort and Someone To Look After Them. They'll pay lots of taxes for this Someone. And if it tramples on their freedoms..so what.

So..in the city, we are indeed chickens.

An aside;

[UPDATE: What a bunch: they can't ever get counter-response right. Check out the comments of "JT" and "Sam" after 9:00 a.m. - they're identical. When trying to fool people into thinking the grassroots are with you, folks, you might want to be a bit better organized. Lurking in blog chat rooms and posting identical talking points under different false names is not what you might call a winning strategy. But what do I know.] kinsella

Lurking in blog chat rooms !!?? Or boys bathrooms ?

Vit, hey buddy -- SIT DOWN AND DRINK BEER, would ya, eh. I'll have to study this more in depth tomorrow -- partly because I think I understand what your are getting at! This could be HUGE, HUGE INDEED!

kelly, are you saying vit gives bad graph?

An earnest young fellow from my conservative MP's office called recently, wanting to know if they could count on my support. It hurt, but I had to explain the difference between "party conservative" and "movement conservative".

Given the hysteria in the MSM over what is effectively a cowardly left-of-centre party, I may hold my nose, but my money they shall certainly not get.

Vit - you are as bad as me. "First, we define the box..."

When I was a kid I used to read a fictional series about Hari Seldon the inventor of psychohistory. I never thought I would see the beginnings of it on something called a blog from Saskatchewan. LOL

Well done Vitruvius.

Tenebris ~

1. A mathematician, scientist, and engineer are each asked: "Suppose we define a horse's tail to be a leg. How many legs does a horse have?" The mathematician answers "5"; the scientist "1"; and the engineer says, "But you can't do that!"

2. An engineer, a mathematician, a physicist, and a software developer are sitting around a camp-fire and the question comes up, "How many sides does a box have?" The engineer says that a box has four sides, a top, and a bottom. The mathematician says that a box has six sides, the faces of its rectangular prism. The physicist says that a box has twelve sides, because each of the prism's faces actually has two sides. So the software developer thinks about this a bit, and says: "A box has two sides: the inside, where the software runs, and the outside, where the user runs."