September 13, 2008
Hurricane Ike
I've been following the more technical blogs on Hurricane Ike for the last few days. While Ike is only a category 2, maybe low 3, in wind strength, its huge diameter and slow progress through the gulf gives it a higher total Integrated Kinetic Energy (last reported to be over 120 terajoules) than Katrina. The storm surge in the north-east (most dangerous) quadrant is predicted, worst case, to be over 30 feet, also in part because Ike is arriving on a rising tide, and it's a full-moon tide too.
It is my understanding, at the time I write this, that Galveston island is under water. Worst case, it may be stripped bare. Unfortunately, it appears that tens of thousands of people did not evacuate. There may be thousands dead. Houston is starting to be inundated, parts of the Louisiana coastal areas are already inundated, and it will get worse over the next few hours.
The maximum storm surge is plowing smack into the highest density petrochemical refinery area in North America, from the central Texas coast to the central Louisiana coast. Texas City and Port Arthur will likely be severely inundated. The refineries are all shut down, at best they will take a week to restart. Prices will rise across North America.
Needless to say, the idiots in the main-stream media were standing out in the approaching storm, in Houston, late Friday, pontificating on the low winds, completely oblivious to proper reporting on the scientifically incontrovertible evidence about the storm surge. They should be charged with criminal negligence, possibly fraud.
Anyway, as much as I eschew predictions, that's how I see at this point, roughly 02:30 Central Time. The worst will be happening over the next six hours. I sincerely hope I'm wrong about this, yet I suspect you will find this thread to be a useful place for discussion of this probably major natural disaster later today.
To my many colleagues and customers in Ike's path: my sincere best wishes to you for your safety. For SDA's further reading, my best recommendation for a starting point for status reports, logical (not main-stream media) information, and numerous important links to other sites on this matter is Brendan Loy.
This is just terrifying. Seriously. I hope it all turns out to be nothing, but I doubt it.
I was watching some video from a hurrican party in Galveston, and it reminded me of an interview I saw once with a woman who attended a hurrican party before Camile on the terrace of a large concrete building, and was one of two survivors of the party as the building was undermined and collapsed.
Posted by: Tim in Vermont at September 13, 2008 7:56 AMVit. I to have been folowing Ike,as we have very good friends in Thibadeaux,LA.They,fortunately,have left to go to his sisters place in Atlanta.Unfortunately,they will probably return to nothing but a few frogs,water moccasins,and gators where their house used to be.
Funniest(?) comment I've heard yet was some twit on CNN wondering if the 20' surge would top the 17' levee. Guess you don't need math to be a broadcaster.
I looked at that storm surge prediction this morning and was literally filled with dread. Thank God, it appears predictions markedly over-estimated the surge.
Posted by: Tenebris at September 13, 2008 9:12 AMlooks like the pressure in the storm eased up a notch or two and the surge didn't turn out to be as high.
Still the damage will be substantial.
Posted by: Fred at September 13, 2008 9:13 AMIf I'm not mistaken, Galveston suffered the most devastating and deadly hurricane in US history in the 1930s. Let's hope this won't repeat.
Posted by: DrDave at September 13, 2008 10:29 AMLooks like it fizzled a bit. It's always good to err on the side of caution, but this time I think there was some paranoia.
I think Galveston was destroyed in 1903, DrDave.
Thank goodness the Gulf waters aren't any warmer. If the AGW alarmists were actually correct, this could have been a real monster storm.
Posted by: dp at September 13, 2008 11:48 AM"Looks like it fizzled a bit. It's always good to err on the side of caution, but this time I think there was some paranoia."
Not paranoia, common sense. Katrina was a wakeup call for those who had forgotten Andrew and Mitch. As humans continue to domicile unsustainable habitats, this "paranoia" will, of necessity, become the norm, or human casualties of monumental scale will become the norm also. There is a persistent stupidity that somehow, when all avenues for life are withdrawn, life will continue... Evolutionists call that "selection pressure":) This is the norm in some third world countries, like Bangladesh for example, which suffers the same marginal existence due to trying to live on floodplains.
Posted by: Skip at September 13, 2008 12:01 PMhttp://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/current
This is the storm track projection. Looks like a bit of rain heading our way.
Posted by: Sgt Lejaune at September 13, 2008 12:04 PMThere are aftermath videos up at KHOU, the Houston NBC affiliate http://www.khou.com/video/
Posted by: Skip at September 13, 2008 12:22 PM"this is the moment , the seas cease to rise" B. Hussien Obama.
could he have been lying to us hoi polloi?
DrDave wrote, "If I'm not mistaken, Galveston suffered the most devastating and deadly hurricane in US history in the 1930s. Let's hope this won't repeat.
It was in 1900. They responded by building a seawall and building up the entire island.
The full story of the disaster and reaction:
Raising Galveston: The Miracle After the 1900 Hurricane from American Heritage
In case your interested, I'm in Central Houston. Power just came back on after going out about 12 hours ago.
Three cheers for electricity workers! Power To The People!
Water's still out, probably due to the lack of power to the pumps.
Posted by: Looking Glass at September 13, 2008 4:15 PM...hey Looking Glass. I heard the xyz(insurance?) building downtown Houston had about 30 floors of windows knocked out.
Is it that ugly looking thin one?
Posted by: tomax7 at September 13, 2008 7:20 PM...go to foxnews, they have a live chat windows.
Seems only central houston got power, other places are still out and have a curfew in place.
http://www.myfoxhoustonlive.com/
Posted by: tomax7 at September 13, 2008 7:31 PMMy be thousands dead !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Are you crazy? That is sensationalism beyond anything I can imagine even in the MSM.
Get real man.
Posted by: John V at September 13, 2008 8:55 PMThanks for the fact checks -- 1900. This is the strength of the blogosphere: timely and above all accurate information, the essential substrate of clear analysis and advocacy. Would that the msm could be as dedicated to quality.
Posted by: DrDave at September 14, 2008 1:03 AM Are there any organizations who are rescuing abandon pets (dogs, cats, ect) who could not go with owners to shelters in Galveston? People had a choice to evacuate, pets did not. If anyone knows of any groups that are presently helping? Please post Contact inf. Thank You.
NBC29 news featured a partial story of a distraught 61 year old woman who boarded a bus and had to leave her Australian Sheppard dogs.
She was taken to a Galveston Shelter. HEr name is Ldyyan Joniocque. This poor wowan could become ill
from heartbreak.
And knowing whata screwball AL GORE is he will blame this on global warming i mean he has no shame
Posted by: Spurwing Plover at September 14, 2008 10:46 PM