someone said 80's ?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

Wow. A hockey stick graph that makes sense.

I saw two clips on CNN this a.m.: McCain at a rally with Palin and McCain at a rally without Palin. With Palin the joint was jumping; without Palin the rally was a complete waste of time.

There seems little doubt that Palin IS the star of that show. It looks like once again a pretty woman is saving McCain's political career.

Break out the jam, Obama is toast.

He's becoming more frantic by the day. Like the popular kid in school who is replaced by the new "cool" kid and doesn't know how to react.

Whoa. A warning before linking to Al Freakin' Franken, okay, Cap?

Remeber....regression to the mean......

It isn't over. 80% of the time Obama has led, and McCain's lead has been for short periods. Of course only the November poll counts so we will see.

Palin has changed the choice set...if Obama cannot solve this problem then he doesnt deserve the presidency. Surprisingly fixed asset, high overhead gameplan from the alleged change guy.

McCain is running the insurgency right now. Low overhead, ju jitsu move, 4th Generation Warefare campaign.

Nothing wrong with running the traditional campaign, just need to use the tradiutional assets and Obama better start outspending etc.

Once again, I am more open to Obama than many around here, indifferent for the moment. But i can say that his campaign against HRC was brilliant, but is not working as well against McCain/Palin. To use a military analogy, this is the equivalent of the British running into the Exocet in the Falklands.....fancy expensive state of the art warship running up against a relatively low cost single, fire and forget weapon that is notoriously hard to hit.

They may ultimately find a way to defend against her, but at a large cost of resources and time.

And like the British, he should have seen it coming. As Kate said, nice move rookie.

Deep down, McCain and Palin look and behave like adults. Obama sounds like some smarmy 22-year old who graduated with a B.A. and thinks he's hot ship. Biden give the impression of a creepy uncle that nobody wants to be near.

I think the election race is over.

12 more years! 12 more years!

The leftards are going to self-detonate like their terrorist friends when they lose 5 straight to people they look down the end of their noses at (subsequently also the reason WHY they will lose 5 straight.)

I can call the next 3 because the leftards are people who can't learn from their mistakes (or anyone else's.) I can predict that when confronted with a Palin lead ticket (after McCain's single term,) they will pick up their rhetorical gun, hold it the wrong way around and shoot themselves in the face.

Nothing makes me happier than leftards being miserable. The more unhappy they are, the more gleeful I become.

I really am mean ;) And I don't even care that I don't agree with any of Palin's so-con policies.

Remember one thing: Democrats have a long, long history of stealing elections and stuffing ballot boxes in one way or another.

From about 1890 right through the 1950s, Democrats in the South rigged one election after another and had no use whatever for democracy, elections or majority rule whenever these things got in their way. Leadership of the Democratic Party today, in its willingness to steal elections, is no different than it was in, say, 1900.

This year's election may turn out to be another close one in several key states. In close elections Democrats will likely win because they will once again rig, or try to rig, the results their way.

We all saw their attempt to steal the election in 2000 via Florida. Any you might recall how, with the help of a corrupt state Supreme Court, they stold a senate seat in New Jersey an election or two ago. Moreover, there is considerable evidence that Richard Nixon was actually elected President in 1960, but that the Democrats stold the Electoral College votes in Illinois, Obama's home state, of course, to give JFK the win. Given the chance, Democrats, who are our Socialist Party and who crave power over people above all things, will steal and rig again.

The only effective defense against Democrats' willingness to steal is an election margin too great to challenge. Hense, I don't see the race in the bag for McCain and Palin until it's actually in the bag and official.

"Regression to the mean?" Bwahahahaha! Tell that to Presidents Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry. All had huge leads for a long time while it didn't matter.

Nobody outside of the fever swamps of the blogosphere even started thinking about this election until the conventions.

Tim,

There is a traditional democratic bounce, and it is usually quote large and it evaporates as quickly as it arrives.

All I am saying is that things have been close, and I wouldnt count on a lead today, for either party, lasting.

Slowbama, who coined that term it is wonderful, is being very deliberative. This either yields a new long lasting strategy, or it means this guy cant make a decision in less than the time it takes a season to change.

The GOP is a very strong political machine. The Democratic one a very fractured and less disciplined one. The debates will settle it, mind you with the continual minor gaffes by Obama Biden then they may yet seal their own fate.

Still early, campaigns are a metaphor for governing. As I said if Obama cannot recover from Palin then he doesnt deserve the Presidency.

It is my understanding, while McCain leads slightly in popular vote, Obama is ahead significantly in electoral college votes.

Any comments?

Great observation Shamrock. Agree.

Also, graphs without error bars don't mean much. This could be essentially a tie.

That's what happened in 2004. It was in essence a tie, without a clear winner - it then boiled down to who had the savvy to manouvre a win out of that. Bush didn't steal an election.

It may be more difficult and sensitive to "break a tie" after the results of this election come out - let's hope for a clear winner.

In any case, the US economy is headed for dire times, it's a terrible time to be president.

"Nothing makes me happier than leftards being miserable. The more unhappy they are, the more gleeful I become."

Ditto

It has been 8 fun years of watching the Dems and their supporters bending themselves out of shape to the point they actually believe they are pretzels, as Kathy pointed out "... for liberals believing is seeing". As I've mentioned I like to analogize the Dems/libs to American Idol contestants, and I am not ashamed to admit that I watch the show to see people make fools of themselves.

The funny thing is Billery is already contemplating the "I told you so" campaign for the Dem leadership race in 2012. The Dems are already planning on repeating the mistakes they just finished making. They'll go into the primaries with an entitled candidate and probably discard any solid candidate that can win undecided voters. They just don't get it, Americans want strong INDEPENDENT leadership, not a member of the world community that is looking for permission to conduct the affairs of the United States of America.

Those electoral vote projections rely on a lot of polling that is weeks old. Here is an explanation for you.

http://radaronline.com/exclusives/2008/09/obama-polls-worry.php

Mostly it has to do with the fact that state by state polls are not run as frequently as national polls, and often state polls are run by smaller, lest sophisticated polling firms.

Which is why electoral vote sites are popular among liberals these days, they contain data from back when Obama was in the lead. Read the article before you blast me on this.

Although, apparently Palin has made some news in the past few minutes, so the polls may now change.

This site doesn't have permalinks, so this link will probably be stale in an hour, but here it is

http://www.lucianne.com/

"EXCLUSIVE: GOV. SARAH PALIN WARNS WAR MAY BE NECESSARY IF RUSSIA INVADES ANOTHER COUNTRY
....full story upcoming which is a way to say...developing."

While this is certainly true, I am sure Obama's people are slapping themselves silly with high fives at this opportunity to paint her as a war monger.

It was not so bad as that, and, in my opinion, she knocked the question about whether she thought the war in Iraq was "God's will" out of the park.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=5778018&page=1

I'm holding my breath and keeping my fingers crossed.

Grief. I was looking, in the supermarket checkout, at the latest National Enquirer with scandal all about Palin on the front cover. I caught the guy behind me looking and I said something about "she being attacked with the most vicious lies and insults". He agreed.

I really do think the Ubermessiah's vicious attacks on Palin et famille are backfiring big time. This will only show up in polls a week or so to come.

Tim in Vermont, I believe the Palin war with Russia was another incompetent media hatchet job. The context of her statement was, if Georgia was a member of NATO, and Russia invaded, the US would be required to intervene.

She was not saying she thought it might be necessary to fight Russia. She may have meant that Russia would think twice about invading Georgia if she was in NATO, given it's member protection doctrine.

Let's see how the dems try to spin and smear this one. Why are they so afraid of her? Why have they lost their minds WRT her? Are they trying to blow this election?

If she is such a lightweight, and no threat to their base, then challenge her on policy, instead of their nonsense so far with idiotic statements about having a DS baby hurts poor people.

Well, they can spin it as much as they like, but what she agrees with Obama and Biden on the issue.

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzI4OGRmYjcwMDliNDUyMjM0NzkyNDExNWJhZDY1ZmQ=

Keep that link handy for the inevitable leftard rush.

One more thing for you guys who don't believe the polls. Intrade now has McCain on top, so you can go over there and win some money.

http://www.intrade.com/

If you really want to upset the leftards, here is polling data for the US Congress that mirrors the above. Dems gotta be pooping a pickle.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110263/Battle-Congress-Suddenly-Looks-Competitive.aspx