Comrade Stalin, a good Georgian boy, will not be pleased with Mother Russia.

Why is no one reporting on the rest of the story?

Georgia started it, not Russia..

Here is some background http://russia-insider.livejournal.com/25038.html

Here is a plea http://tskhinval.ru/english/51.html

More perspective here http://www.russiablog.org/2008/08/war_in_georgia_putting.php

As to the most recent events, here is the actual chronology.
http://www.russiablog.org/2008/08/war_in_georgia_mis-reading_ossetia.php

So, just maybe the west and the media have it wrong?

Here is today's Stratfor podcast on the subject.

A Ukrainian friend who had spent time in the Russian army told me how upset he was is about the Russian aggression. He says that Georgia is just a beautiful country and that the Russians are moving in because they want to control the oil and gas pipelines that supply Europe.

This remind me of Israel terror campaign against Lebanon 2 years ago: (collective punishment).

I think Russia are on a *let's punish them* mentality. They will continue to bomb and kill people for 1 or 2 months and then withdraw.

Next time Israel wages a "terror campaign" I'm going to vigorously urge them to bomb Quebec instead so as to spare the lives of those "innocent" Lebanese who have rocket launchers in their living room.

It's win-win!

As painful as it is to watch a commie dictator like Putin crush a wannabe democracy like Georgia, the fact is that the West has no influence on Russia's actions. We have no ability to punish Russia short of starting a ruinous war, and certainly that would be inappropriate, even if we had the will to do it, which we do not (by we I mean NATO, which can barely get their ass together to fight a bunch of Taleban guerillas).

How different is the current Russian aggression from the nightmare in Chechnya. Not much. We like Georgia more because they are not Islamists, and because they profess to want to join the West, but otherwise both are examples of a regional giant slapping down an insect that got too annoying.

I take consolation from the fact that in the long run, this invasion and likely occupation will probably cost Russia more than they bargained for (invasions always do) and will serve to remind the West who the real bad people are, and perhaps unify us a bit so that we can hold together against the real future enemies.

In the meantime, my heart goes out to the Georgians, and to other former Soviet states and satelite states who are waking up to a painful new old reality.

I'm intrigued QS, was this Israeli campaign the one before or after the Lebanese government shelled the living crap out of the Palestinians in their refugee camp?

Is somebody paying you to be this stupid? Because if so, you are giving them value for their money my friend.

It saddens me to see an old enemy coming back to haunt us. I knew from the beginning that the cold war had not ended, just changed.

I mean, look at Putin's background. He was our enemy then(cold war days) and he is our enemy now.

One thing I will say though, is that the Russian army is not much better now, than it was 20 years ago(which was very, very sad....NATO would have kicked their butts in a conventional war), so we shall see how well they handle the occupation side of this.

Very sad indeed!

Putin is no angle thats for sure. Neither is the US or Isreal.

http://russiatoday.com/guests/detail/1425

I feel for the Georgians, they’re being squashed.

In my view however making a strategic investment in such a vulnerable and exposed region as the Caucasus’s (essentially Russia back yard) as the American have done is asking for trouble. It only served to provoke the Russians, who think nothing of indulging in power politics.

I understand enrolling countries like the Ukraine and Poland as they are geographically contiguous to NATO neighbors and have enough weight in their own right and can be supported. However I believe this patronage by the West probably encouraged Georgia in their fait accompli - it has backfired disastrously. There's very little the Americans or the West can do beyond offering moral support.

The Americans have reached too far and damaged their prestige – and Georgia will lie prostrate.

Meanwhile, the anti-war left take to the streets in the thousands to condemn the imperialist aggressors. Any moment now.

Nyet methinks

Violence is only ever bad when done by right wingers because the left care about Putin. He shut down free speech so he has to be good! Telling them the people what they can say.

Any rationalization he can come up with will be believed did they fly airplanes into Moscow and kill 2000 people? Who cares.

Lori invasions only cost more to countries that aren't willing to pillage, Russia's postwar economy would have sucked had they not pillaged Germany. Did France build a space program? The UK? They didn't take enough they were nice.

Invasion America - Death To Georgia!
;)

look at the brite side of this

putin may have just helped decide the USA election, to his own determent, as I think this will make many voters realize that a more experienced and military able president is in order, and that would be McCain. This will also not be what putin would really want, as hussain would be a lot easier to deal with, or much stupider (think jfk and cuba) if he felt he was cornered and that could be disastrous.

(Anonymous) wrote:
Aug. 11th, 2008 05:52 pm (UTC)
the facts
the facts don't lie:
- 6 Aug 2008 Georgia started massive shelling of villages near Tshinvali
- 7 Aug 2008 23:30 Georgia started massive shelling of Tshinvali
- 8 Aug 2008 03:00 state minister of Georgia announces that Tshinvali is surrounded by georgian forces.
- 8 Aug 2008 15:00 Tshinvali is demolished. About 1400 ossetians killed
- 8 Aug 2008 16:00 Ossetian forces started counter attack, russian tanks entered Ossetia and fired towards georgian forces, Georgian forces left Tshinvali

WAKE UP AMERICA!
I did a cut and paste here, because this is the scenario that I heard first, before the MSM changed the scenario.

You are correct in what you pasted but you are incomplete in the events before Aug 6.

From Retired Col Ralph Peters:

Setting aside the fact that South Ossetia is legally a part of Georgia, this fight began with a set-up worthy of Hitler's machinations in Czechoslovakia and Poland. Having created, funded and fully backed the South Ossetian separatist movement since the Soviet crack-up, in late July the Kremlin ordered the local militias they own to provoke the Georgians.

In the week prior to the invasion, South Ossetians, aided by Russian "peacekeepers," had shelled and raided Georgian villages beyond South Ossetia. In Tbilisi, the freely elected president, Mikheil Saakashvili, a pro-Western leader, took the bait and walked into Moscow's trap-he ordered Georgian forces to go in and clean out the areas where the South Ossetian militias were operating.

Will Ukraine be next?

Further to kingstonlad's point about the low quality of the Russian forces and continuing to quote Col. Peters:

Russia is continuing its invasion of free, democratic Georgia with overwhelming military force. Given the raw power Russia has been willing to apply, there's no question as to which side will win.

Still, for serious military analysts, the remarkable thing has been how little Russian performance has changed over the years (and decades, and even centuries).

My current understanding is something close to Mr. Peter's
analysis, Brent. Do you have a link handy for that quote?

Thanks for that Brent Weston. That post explained quite a bit to me and hopefully a lot of others as well.

Like you, Vitruvius, I have subscriptions to some of my info. However, he often writes for the New York Post, so I expect the full article will appear later this week in the NY Post.

This one is here

You are welcome.

The first casualty of war is the truth, so don't expect to hear if from any side.

Russia does not have the yoke of political correctness around it's neck, so it will do what it wants on it's borders.

The USA (my favorite country) has no business telling Russia what to do on it's own borders. Would the USA let Russia dictate what goes on between Mexico and Canada and the USA ... NOT!

The West no long has the balls to tell anyone with a really big military what to do. NATO is shit and the UN is insane. The world is a dangerous place full of bullies and we, of course, are the nerds and fags with the Star war lunch pails.

Perhaps Georgia should file a humans rights complaint with mmm let's see ... the extra terrestrials. Ya, that might work.

Meanwhile, Both Bush and Putin are in China at the Olympics. Why doesn't Bush just challenge Putin to a boxing match or a duel or maybe just arm wrestle him and the winner gets to decide about Georgia. Ya, that might work.

Wait, how about the USA nuke Russia, while Russia nukes the USA and China, then china can nuke Japan and Russia and Israel can nuke Iran while India slips one or two in on Pakistan and while all this is happening the Europeans can all drink a bottle of wine and have sex just one more time, before anyone nukes them.

When it's over the only Continent intact will be Africa and it can finally rise to destiny and the latest world fashion will be a bone through the nose and earlobes the size of cantaloupes.

That will impress the extra terrestrials.

Sorry, damn BC bud ...

Ah, understood Brent, I have that problem with some
of the copyright analysis I receive from Stratfor too.

Thanks for the analysis and links you are able to provide.

GYM,

I think you are right. McCain gave a big speech in Iowa (I think) which I read this morning (google it for the transcript). The speech is very good and sensible. The American people will see this and I think that this thing has basically guaranteed that McCain will win in November.

I actually think that the US will intervene militarily to ensure Russia does not overrun Georgia. The biggest supporters of (and the most outspoken about) this Georgia thing are the Ukraine, Poland, the former Soviet Baltic countries, Azerbaijan, and Turkey. So even if the main EU countries are a bunch of wimps, the US and Georgia can probably count on support from these countries. Also, the US has major access to air bases in Bulgaria and Romania (on the Black Sea) that now provide the major transport routes for the US to Iraq (and Bulgaria and Romania want nothing to do with Russian bullying in the Black Sea).

Agreed Vitruvius. It sometimes is worthwhile to pay extra for info. We all enjoy Kate's "Asteroid" series but some of us actually do something about it. For instance, the recent revelations about John Edwards and Rielle Hunter were revealed through these guys last October. They had verified that National Enquirer's story was correct and what it meant for Edward's Presidential bid. However, they went further than the tabloid and actually revealed her name last fall.

I normally find Ralph Peters articles in the New York Post later in the week after I read them. I do not do this for most because of the subscription issues you mentioned.

Aye, Brent. Indeed, I think there is at least a degree to which one has to pay for information that doesn't sell advertising, and raw data and cold analysis don't sell advertising, fear-mongering does. Also agreed on Ralph Peters, I've noticed in the past that his analysis often tends to be relatively clear-headed, even if it does end up being tarted-up a bit by the time it makes it to the common media.

Thanks for your thoughts, Vitruvius. Good night from the East Coast.

I agree with Lori. She (he) hits the nail on the head. I am beginning to think that the powers in Russia have an agenda that zeroes in on putting (Putin) the old Soviet empire back together again. We need to take heed.

Looks like the Russians are trying to make change - using military force to help them achieve their means. This is just another chapter in Russian/Soviet Union history where the leadership tries to exert "influence" in the local republics by any means possible to "protect" themselves from the perceived threat from the West.

Georgia, Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States have been used in the past as a buffer from Russia and the West, and Putin is trying to do it again. He'll "convince" them that any threat in support of Georgia will result in the same treatment - intervention in those countries to protect "indigenous" Russians that are "threatened" by the local population. Unless the US ans NATO step in and "draw a line in the sand", Putin will use any opportunity to do this again.

What is the take in Russia on Obama?
Would the Russians rather that McCain is president?
Will they push further into Georgia, in order to gain a military response from the USA that includes McCain (the more obviously military capable) as president?

Is it possible for the Russians to conduct this in Georgia in part to influence an American election?

tell me this doesn't make sense...?

Thanks, Brent Weston and Vitruvius. That data dump plugged up some of the gaps in my gourd around Georgia.

Latest news I see this morning is the Russians are being told to stand down RFN by that war monger George W. Bush.

breitbart.com/article.php?id=D92GG0QG0&show_article=1

" He said Russia's escalation of the conflict had "raised serious questions about its intentions in Georgia and the region" and had "substantially damaged Russia's standing in the world." "These actions jeopardize Russia's relations with the United States and Europe," Bush said. "It's time for Russia to be true to its word to act to end this crisis."

Cue the peaceniks in 3, 2, 1, ...

Still, its nice to see the Russians remain as crappy at warfare as they were in Afghanistan. Or 1917, for that matter. All the ant-like milling about and piss-poor shooting gives me a warm feeling at the bottom of my heart.

Two points.

1) Condi rice is now dealing with an opponent she knows, Russia, as opposed to one she doesn't, Islamists.

2) How will Europe react. It knows it doesnt want to be receiving energy through the Russian mafia tollgate. Europeans might have had trouble understanding why they were in Afghanistan, but this one will make more sense to more people, certainly within the elite (that still make the decisions in Europe)

3) Just what cold blew through Warsaw, Tallin and the other capitals of the former Eastern Bloc countries and how will they react to this. One suspects the Poles are felling even more pro American and maybe the Ukranians as well.

4) The trick is the US and Europe better support the Georgian government in a substantial way, or you have a fina example of the West being all Hat and no Cattle. I dont want a war but you have a real problem here

5) Once again CIA and Western Intelligence caught totally naked and in the open....WTF is wrong here.

6) You can take solace in the fact the the Russian military is artless, but they just make up for it with more resources, and against iopponents like the Georgian military this isnt a problem. BTW Georgia is geographically contiguous with Nato, it borders Turkey. Feed as much equipment as you can through Turkey, anti tank, anti aircraft missles...if the Russinas want to do this then cut them deep and make them bleed and save that darn pipeline.

It was true in the past and will remain true, the Russians will push till they strike steel.

QS you f*cking little pussy. If you were any dumber you'd be dangerous.

So whats the mighty useless nation(UN)got to say.

So whats the mighty useless nation(UN)got to say.

Bottom line, Putin is a sneak and even looks the part. He is not to be trusted. This foray into Georgia will have brought that home to the Western Leaders who have their eyes on the ball. It's a major setback for Russia on all fronts.

A skunk can't change his stripe and Putin is a skunk. He didn't make head of KGB by being Miss Congeniality and his moves to still be at the top of the Russian food chain after finishing his terms as President leave no doubt as to his charactor.

Thanks for the info Brent. I am still surprised the west didn't see this coming. I still can't figure out why the Air Force with SU27s couldn't knock out the oil lines, after all it is exactly like picking off gophers from the back of a rd350 ;-)

This could prove interesting as time goes on.

Some useful analysis here:

John C. Wohlstetter, Russia vs. Georgia: Four painful lessons

Ethnic separatism once again has further destabilized world geopolitics, with the outbreak of military conflict between Russia and Georgia over the breakaway regions of South Ossetia & Abkhazia...

Four lessons come immediately to mind: (1) the risk minor powers pose to major-power relations; (2) the risk of excessive compartmentalization in policy; (3) the risk from grossly misplaced strategic focus; (4) the risk of making a fetish of democracy promotion--especially in the form of multi-ethnic states.

Russian president halts military operation in Georgia as diplomatic haggling begins

This announcement from the Kremlin came after Moscow’s first formal statement on its terms for ending hostilities in the Caucasian War. A senior Russian army commander confirmed the troops had received orders [to s]top their advance.

DEBKAfile’s military sources: Moscow’s curb on Russian forces leaves Abkhazian and South Ossetian troops free to combat the Georgian army...

A major consequence of the Georgian affair (and other similar events that may follow if Russia is successful) could be the re-militarization of Europe. As frightening as all-out war is in a nuclear age, I doubt Europe will long tolerate having its supply of gas regulated by Russia. It is not entirely clear how Europe will respond. On one hand, it has had several decades in which to sink into the pleasures of the welfare state, and women's suffrage has exerted a strong pacific influence on its politics (and on ours as well). On the other hand, nations have gone to war under far less provocation.

The Europeans will, of course, seek to push the burden of "collective" security on the U.S., thus preserving funds for its welfare programs. However, there is little appetite in this country for additional military campaigns, particularly in view of our own indebtedness and the looming pressures soon to be imposed by our own entitlement programs. Therefore, I expect European politicians, particularly in Germany, which is closer to Russia than France and (I think) more dependent on gas from the East, to seek a more robust European force.

Those interested in more background on the ethnic issues involved in the two disputed regions may find this analysis at Strategy Page helpful. This is what the surface issue has been. The only thing missing in this analysis is the importance of the pipeline and other infrastructure passing through Gori - which is what the real issue is.

After all this above analysis and fact finding...great to read...but the last few words of the preceding comment is what I intuitively thought must be the relevant issue...however not knowing anything about the area or the ethnic conflicts...it appears to be a well aimed shot in the dark...or not

After all this above analysis and fact finding...great to read...but the last few words of the preceding comment is what I intuitively thought must be the relevant issue...however not knowing anything about the area or the ethnic conflicts...it appears to be a well aimed shot in the dark...or not

After all this above analysis and fact finding...great to read...but the last few words of the preceding comment is what I intuitively thought must be the relevant issue...however not knowing anything about the area or the ethnic conflicts...it appears to be a well aimed shot in the dark...or not

Brent, that's an interesting point of view, but I'm not sure I entirely buy it. Georgia's a small country, and it's not hard to plan an attack on it. The Russian forces have probably had all the detailed plans they need lying in a drawer ever since the breakup of the Soviet Union, and all the necessary forces loafing around looking for something to keeop them busy.

I certainly doubt that the Kremlin can turn the Ossetian nationalists on and off like a tap. When the Russians turned Georgia loose, they reserved the right to decide just what boundaries of the new sovereign Georgia they were going to recognize, just as if Quebec were ever to separate, Canada would not be bound to respect its existing borders. It's been clear for some time that Georgia could not control South Ossetia, and the Ossetians don't need Russian help or permission to cause trouble for Georgia. The situation had been stable for years, and it could have remained stable indefinitely. This wasn't the first time Russia could have moved, but it was the first time Georgia took steps to provoke them to it, so the initial conclusion has to be that this was a Russian response, not a long-laid Russian plan.

It's also the first time that stomping on helpless Georgia can be spun as standing up to the West, and the opportunity for that spin won't last, so it looks all the more opportunistic and all the less part of a master plan for conquest.

Two points.
1) Condi rice is now dealing with an opponent she knows, Russia, as opposed to one she doesn't, Islamists.

One point: She has a PhD but knows squat -- or put another way she has zero street smarts. Recall, she didn't correct Bush who looked into Putin's heart and liked what he saw.

She destroyed Bush's second term in the State Department coup.