Yes, I agree, BUT I would argue 25 to 50 years is not infinite.

Hyperbole my dear Christoph ... hyperbole.

It almost looks like some nice Person planned these vast supplies of fuel for our benefit.

Intelligent Oil? Now I've heard everything....

I do hope that we do not screw things up royally by forcing CO2 down the 'Dry' holes.

I think that we should continue to look for alternatives but not in a panic driven hysteria. And definitely not at the whim of the enviro-wackos.

CO2 is a product of combustion and is not lethal. It is a life support system for everything that utilizes chlorophyl. Our lives depend on it!

CRB

'Intelligent Oil? Now I've heard everything....'

You never watched X-Files? :P

Predictions that we would run out of oil began before the turn of the 20th Century- that is, around 1900. Even 'hubbard's peak' has been pushed back several times since he finagled the idea. So far, the only truthful thing I have discovered from reading that book, is the origin of the Men In Black.

The notion that this planet is running out of oil is one of the great misnomers of our age.

It's also useful for spreading panic and justifying additional taxes.

The world may not be running out of oil anytime soon. But it is running out of cheap oil. I recommend reading Tertzakian's "A Thousand Barrels a Second."

Not so much a question of crude shortage but rather the numerous ways to Pump up the prices of refined petro-products.

First Big Oil covers the market in automated pumps that require you to use your time, your credit card and your liability to fill your gas tank.

Then, to get the capital costs for the expensive automated equipment covered there are wars and conflicts in oil basins like the ME, Venezuela, Columbia and Mexico.

There are Iranian gunboat Squirmishes in the Gulf of Hormuz and Al Gore, Suzooki.

For many very wealthy people it is a golden goose system. = TG

thanks for the link, cjunk - should forward this to some of the politicians...

shawn: technology is rapidly making what was once expensive-to-recover oil as cheap to recover as traditional reserves. Case in point - go to petrobank.com and read-up on THAI technology. Tertzakian should know better and probably does, but that kind of optomism doesn't sell books.

We Are Running Out Of Oil !!

Some claimed that shortly after it was struck in Pensylvania in 1859.

http://www.priweb.org/ed/pgws/history/pennsylvania/pennsylvania.html

[Before the first U.S. oil well was drilled in Pennsylvania in 1859, petroleum supplies were limited to crude oil that oozed to the surface. In 1855, an advertisement for Kier’s Rock Oil advised consumers to “hurry, before this wonderful product is depleted from Nature’s laboratory.]

[In 1874, the state geologist of Pennsylvania, the nation’s leading oil producing state, estimated that only enough U.S. oil remained to keep the nation’s kerosene lamps burning for four years.]

[Seven such oil shortage scares occurred before 1950. As a writer in the Oil Trade Journal noted in 1918:
At regularly recurring intervals in the quarter of a century that I have been following the ins and outs of the oil business[,] there has always arisen the bugaboo of an approaching oil famine, with plenty of individuals ready to prove that the commercial supply of crude oil would become exhausted within a given time — usually only a few years distant.]

I remember being worried about dwindling oil supplies in the 70s - then along came the North Sea and the Oil Sands and Russia and ..

[1973 Oil Embargo. The 1973 Arab oil embargo gave rise to renewed claims that the world’s oil supply would be exhausted shortly.
The Oil Crisis:
This Time the Wolf Is Here,” warned an article in the influential journal Foreign Affairs.]

[The predictions of the 1970s were followed in a few years by a glut of cheap oil:
● The long-term inflation-adjusted price of oil from 1880 through 1970 averaged $10 to $20 a barrel.
● The price of oil soared to over $50 a barrel in inflation-adjusted 1996 U.S. dollars following the 1979 political revolution in Iran.]
● But by 1986, inflation-adjusted oil prices had collapsed to one-third
their 1980 peak. When projected crises failed to occur, doomsayers moved their predictions forward by a few years and published again in more visible and prestigious journals:
● In 1989, one expert forecast that world oil production would peak that very year and oil prices would reach $50 a barrel by 1994.
● In 1995, a respected geologist predicted in World Oil that petroleum production would peak in 1996, and after 1999 major increases
in crude oil prices would have dire consequences. He warned that “[m]any of the world’s developed societies may look more like today’s Russia than the U.S.”11
● A 1998 Scientific American article entitled “The End of Cheap Oil” predicted that world oil production would peak in 2002 and warned that “what our society does face, and soon, is the end of the abundant and cheap oil on which all industrial nations depend.]

And with $120+ oil, it is easy to be scared again
today. In constant dollars, I believe oil is just a little higher than the Arab Oil Embargo days of the 70s. (Many believe today's is mostly a Hedge Fund driven spec bubble. Another topic, another day)

This time it IS different !!??
We really are running out of Fossils ??

Falklands Oil
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6571431.stm

Sask Oil
http://www.canada.com/saskatoonstarphoenix/news/local/story.html?id=5f07f6b9-815f-4058-9e25-17fb0c61cd61

Quebec Gas
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/409358

Asian Gas
http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/calgarybusiness/story.html?id=f39898ca-d0a1-4c46-9991-fd7c2cf15254

Sask Oil Sands
http://www.dobmagazine.nickles.com/columns/pulse.asp?article=magazine/columns/060410/MAG_COL2006_AA0000.html

BC Bonanza
http://www.sqwalk.com/bc2008/001264.html

Bakken
http://www.canada.com/saskatoonstarphoenix/news/local/story.html?id=5f07f6b9-815f-4058-9e25-17fb0c61cd61

Alaska 3 to 10 Billion bls
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-0028-01/fs-0028-01.htm

Brazil
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/nov2007/db20071115_045316.htm

I remember Marc Lalonde, our beloved oil expert, warning Canadians in 1981, we will see $100 oil.

He was right - except we saw $9 oil first.

In fact, oil was relatively cheap from 1985 till 2004.

In fact the long term average (constant dollars) is only about $35, including recent $125).

So why does oil always seem be high priced ? Because whenever it is expensive - wall to wall media hype and fear-mongering from the Media (sells dead trees).

But for news in all the years in between pricey oil ? Choose from a list of the other world-enders.

My neighbour is a lifetime oil guy. In the back of the Industry's mind ? If there was less restrictions on drilling, refineries and less politics in the Middle East we would see $10 Buck oil. (Kiss your pension Plan holdings in Oil Sands goodbye at that price !!)

Longs in oil take note;

[Reuters
May 8, 2008 at 12:29 PM EDT

LONDON — World oil markets have enough supply now, but OPEC is willing to pump more if needed to keep pace with demand, the group's secretary-general said on Thursday.

Adbullah al-Badri also said in a statement that the 13-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries holds more than 3 million barrels per day of spare production capacity for use if needed.

"There is clearly no shortage of oil in the market," the statement quoted him as saying.

"The organization stands ready to act if the market shows a need for any further measures," he added.]

http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080508.wopec0508/BNStory/energy/home?cid=al_gam_mostview

Anyone who argues, as Kohlmayer does, that "we're not running out of oil" does not deserve our attention. That is not the issue of debate. No credible proponent of the idea that we have an energy supply problem claims that "we are running out of oil".

What is a concern is peak oil, the concept that the world's rate of production will maximize and thereafter decline inexorably. This, by the way is inevitable. It is simply a matter of geology. The worlds oil production rate of oil WILL eventually peak. The only debate then becomes when it will peak. There are some who credibly argue that it is soon, if not already here.

I am not one of those who is firmly in this camp, but I have have read enough to be concerned.

For you Slashdotters out there:

"Your Rights Online: Author Faces Canadian Tribunal For Hate Speech"
http://yro.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=08/05/10/1850248

"A Seattle Times editorial notes that the British Columbia Human Rights Tribunal will put author Mark Steyn on trial for his book 'America Alone,' which has angered Muslims in Canada. Steyn is a columnist for the Canadian magazine Maclean's. According to the editorial, British Columbia bans all words and images 'likely to expose a person... to hatred or contempt because of race, religion, age, disability, sex, marital status or sexual orientation.' Steyn is unapologetic, and is advertising his book as a 'Canadian Hate Crime' and daring the tribunal to 'pronounce him bad.'" The National Post has extensive coverage of what it calls "a media storm."

A choice quote from one of the linked articles: "It did seem passingly strange to a lot of people that he was prepared to have a debate with a bunch of kids, effectively, but he isn't prepared to debate somebody who is more or less his own size," said Mr. Kinsella, who has challenged Mr. Steyn to a debate next month at the Public Policy Forum in Ottawa and called him a "chickensh**" for not accepting.

I'd offer to mod up SDA commenters (Slashdot has a fairly sophisticated comment moderation system) but doing so would be unfair.

Long Specs on oil beware !

[Reuters
May 8, 2008 at 12:29 PM EDT

LONDON — World oil markets have enough supply now, but OPEC is willing to pump more if needed to keep pace with demand, the group's secretary-general said on Thursday.

Adbullah al-Badri also said in a statement that the 13-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries holds more than 3 million barrels per day of spare production capacity for use if needed.

"There is clearly no shortage of oil in the market," the statement quoted him as saying.

"The organization stands ready to act if the market shows a need for any further measures," he added.]

".. 3 million barrels per day of spare production .."

What was it during the $9 a barrel slump of 1999 ? 5 mbl/d

The recent low that is supposedly causing $120 oil ? 1 mbl/d

http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080508.wopec0508/BNStory/energy/home?cid=al_gam_mostview

No new fossil fuel to be found ??

Brazil
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/nov2007/db20071115_045316.htm

Falklands Oil
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6571431.stm
Sask Oil
http://www.canada.com/saskatoonstarphoenix/news/local/story.html?id=5f07f6b9-815f-4058-9e25-17fb0c61cd61

and ..

'All The Is Oil Gone'

'Cannot Produce The Stuff Any Faster'

Heard them ones before ? Yup, even before it was first discovered in 1859 !

[Before the first U.S. oil well was drilled in Pennsylvania in 1859, petroleum supplies were limited to crude oil that oozed to the surface. In 1855, an advertisement for Kier’s Rock Oil advised consumers to “hurry, before this wonderful product is depleted from Nature’s laboratory.”]

In 1874, the state geologist of Pennsylvania, the nation’s leading oil producing state, estimated that only enough U.S. oil remained to keep the nation’s kerosene lamps burning for four years.

Filter doesn't like links today, just google;

Brazil Oil

Falklands Oil

Sask Oil

Quebec Gas

Asian Gas

Sask Oil Sands

BC Bonanza

Bakken

Alaska 3 to 10 Billion bls

Woodporter makes the relevant point. Peak oil is not about, "OMG, tomorrow the oil stops!" It's about production no longer being able to keep pace with demand, and the resultant, inevitable increase in the price of oil wreaking havoc with a world economy that has grown to what it is completely reliant on cheap energy and cheap petrochemicals. Optimists would counter that this will spur investment in other forms of energy as they become cost-competitive with oil. Pessimists worry about how we can possibly convert our entire economic structure from one that depends on bountiful oil, to one that must cope with less plentiful and much more expensive oil, without enduring an awful lot of pain.

Remember too, otter, that Hubbard only turned out to be wrong on his peak crude oil prediction for the United States by about two years - and it actually happened sooner than he predicted.

● [The long-term inflation-adjusted price of oil from 1880 through
1970 averaged $10 to $20 a barrel.
● The price of oil soared to over $50 a barrel in inflation-adjusted 1996 U.S. dollars following the 1979 political revolution in Iran.
● But by 1986, inflation-adjusted oil prices had collapsed to one-third their 1980 peak.]

Oil was relatively cheap from 1986 to 2004.

Even with today's $120 oil in the mix, the average from 1880 to now is only about $35.

So why do we think oil is ALWAYS high ?? Ever seen The National Peter start off with;

Drum roll -- "And tonight we start off with - the price of oil has been unusually low for more than a decade now. Rest easy. Three part series tomorrow :)

Ian in NS - google; Bakken

One of the most overlooked aspects of the so-called shrinking levels of proven petroleum reserves, and the infinitely larger petroleum resources, is that of regions were exploration is NOT permitted. I personally broached this subject with Peter Terzakian who indicated that he had not researched this subject and was intrigued by its potential impact on global petroleum reserves and resources.

For example, excepting the Gulf of Mexico (Texas, Louisiana and a part of Alabama) about 90% of the American offshore OCS (Outer Continetal Shelf) remains off limits due to various moratoria since the late 1980s. Only 52 wells were drilled on the Atlantic OCS from 1978-1984 using then current ideas and technologies with no known detrimental effects to the environment or fisheries. Since then, new geological ideas have evolved that have been proven elsewhere in the world and could be tested in the OCS. This has been coupled with advances in technology - drilling, production, seismic acquisition, etc.

The great irony is that the US East Coast is the largest per capita consumers of petroleum products on the planet, and governed by so-called progressive, liberal-democratic politicians. These are the same people who import their crude from Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, are screaming for lower gas prices, don't want refineries in their region, and God forbid no windmills to spoil their ocean views.

Common sense dictates that having a secure supply of natural gas and oil coming from your own offshore via pipelines would be far better than getting it from noxious regimes and shipped by tankers that sometimes sink and spill their cargos.

And don't forget, those windmills and tidal energy turbines are made from metals and plastics; things that are mined and drilled for.

I won't talk about the vast reserves in the Arctic that have had but a handful of wells drilled (excluding the Beaufort Sea). But just you wait - the eco-fanatics will put a stop to that before the first licences are offered.

Hypocrites indeed . . .

[Nonexperts, including some in the media, persistently predict oil shortage
because they misunderstand petroleum terminology. Oil geologists speak of both reserves and resources.
● Reserves are the portion of identified resources that can be economically extracted and exploited using current technology.
● Resources include all fuels, both identified and unknown, and constitute the world’s endowment of fossil fuels.
Oil reserves are analogous to food stocks in a pantry. If a household divides its pantry stores by the daily food consumption rate, the same conclusion is always reached: the family will starve to death in a few weeks. Famine never occurs because the family periodically restocks the pantry.
Similarly, if oil reserves are divided by current production rates, exhaustion appears imminent. However, petroleum reserves are continually increased by ongoing exploration and development of resources. For 80 years, oil reserves in the United States have been equal to a 10- to 14-year supply at current rates of development. If they had not been continually replenished, we would have run out of oil by 1930.]

Question: If you had something deep in the ground that nobody could see, would you say there is a lot left or little left ?

● In May 1920, the U.S. Geological Survey announced that the world’s total endowment of oil amounted to 60 billion barrels.
● In 1950, geologists estimated the world’s total oil endowment at around 600 billion barrels.
● From 1970 through 1990, their estimates increased to between 1,500 and 2,000 billion barrels.

The Tar Sands alone has about a Gazillion.

Bakken, another Zillion.

http://www.ncpa.org/pub/bg/bg159/bg159.pdf

'Remember too, otter, that Hubbard only turned out to be wrong on his peak crude oil prediction for the United States by about two years - and it actually happened sooner than he predicted.'~ Ian

That is the case Only because a) at the time, it was not economical to bring up what they knew was down there, b) they did not have the technologies currently available to bring up what is down there (and still cannot bring All of it up even then), c) the Democrats have pretty much shut down any thought of even drilling a test well, in areas where substantial amounts of oil are known to be- in ANWAR, off the Gulf Coast, off the West Coast...

So Yes, if one takes those factors and more into account, I guess oil in the US did peak.

The first two factors have changed. The third rather unfortunately is going to get much, much worse, if a Democrat takes the WH next fall, with both houses in Democrat hands.

But there's still enough oil under US territory to take care of our needs for decades.

woodporter:

"Peak oil" will be reached, but not in anyone reading this's lifetime. Oilsands, oilshale and oil in limestone (peace river area) will have to be fully exploited before we are anywhere near the peak. What we are seeing today is a intermediate peak as a result of oil exploration and development lagging demand due to very low prices in the late '90s early 00s. Today's high prices are rapidly reversing this and, as the linked article alludes, reserves could be 15% higher in about 8 yrs - daily supply levels will probably increase by at least the same amount.

Recently, I have been betting lunch with friends and associates that within 36 months oil will be back to 40/bbl. If prices continue at today's level or higher, we will be back to that level much sooner.

One thing I agree Peak Oil has done that is commendable - it is encouraging fossil fuel conservation, getting monster trucks & SUVs off the road.

Others, not so much.
Food for biofuel
Windpower scam
Solar where the sun don't shine
Allowing Hedge Funds to run up oil price
Devestating the Ontario Manufacturing sector ...

Sorry cjunk but, you're out to lunch on this one. Oil is a non-renewable resource (just ask Danny Williams) or, as Will Rogers famously said about land, "They're not making any more".

As a geologist and engineer, I perfectly understand the proposition that oil "reserves" are a function, not only of the presence of oil but of technology and anticipated costs of production. However, no matter how you cut it, the world oil reserve is finite and, sooner or later, it will all be gone. The concept of "peak oil" is sound,and will probably be reached within 5 years. That doesn't mean that we will have run out of the stuff; it simply means that supply will begin to continuously decline. That's not rocket science; it's just logic.

Speaking of rocket science, the technology required to tap and produce most recently developed reserves is right up there with the complexity of sending stuff to the space station. It's also horrendously expensive, with very deep offshore wells costing upwards of $40 million! If it wasn't for the skyrocketing price of crude, the capital for drilling such wells would soon dry up.

If we don't slow down on gobbling oil while developing alternative energy resources and redesigning our oil-dependant civilization, future generations are going to have a tough time of it. I'm not talking about global warming BS or "saving the planet". The planet will be here for quite awhile but, billions of people trying to live on it without a viable, energy-based economy would be a pretty damned nasty situation.

Within a few years, $1.25 gasoline is going to look like the good old days, and that's the way it should be. Market forces are working properly.

That's why we also need Nuclear, Zog.

"...estimated that only enough U.S. oil remained to keep the nation’s kerosene lamps burning for four years"

*whew* good thing we switched to electrical lamps!

;-)

Completely missed here is the refinery issue. It wouldn't matter if crude production doubled, here in N.America, because storage and refining capacity is woefully inadaquate! All the recent spikes in gas prices have coincided with the failure of refineries to produce enough of the right product at the right time...gas doesn't store well...as well as some monumental screwups at the refinery level, hurricanes, fires, etc.
Where are the new facilities here in Canada?

"In Canada since 1970, 31 refineries have closed and 6 new ones have opened. The remaining 18 refineries produce more products more cleanly and efficiently through new technologies and processes, advanced equipment, and additional capacity. Refining is a capital intensive business based on producing large volumes of products. The cost to build a new refinery is estimated at about $4 billion and the refinery would have to meet rigorous environmental standards and public scrutiny. The newest Canadian refinery, located in Newfoundland and Labrador, started production in 1984."
http://www.cppi.ca/Refining_Marketing_Distribution.html

The NEWEST one is 24 years old!? Holy crap!!

The Straight of Hormuz is a choke point between Oman and Iran some 30% of crude travels through this straight. The strife in the Middle East has added about $15 - $20 a barrel. Simply on the uncertainty in the Middle East.

Refining capacity in the US has been at a standstill for some 25 years so the US is a just in time consumer of oil in other words they don't actually have any real inventories of the stuff for immediate consumption so any hiccup in the system means a spike in prices.

A decade or so ago I took some Oil engineering courses from Sproule as a trader I wanted to understand exactly what was going on. Engineers bless their steely little hearts are walking doom and gloom soothsayers as opposed to traders who live in a world of Irrational exuberance.

What I am driving at here is that engineers build really big stuff 100's, 1000's of lives depend on their decisions being correct. That doesn't leave a lot of room for things are probably gonna be alright for an engineer they have to be without question alright.

Sooooo with the price of Oil today on par with a gallon of milk that is not a panic number where we are gonna run out in 10 to 15 years or even 40 years.

As one engaged in price discovery as a living I can tell you that if we were on the verge of running out you certainly wouldn't be driving to work you couldn't afford too.

Oil markets have a lot of noise in them you have to strip that away to get at the real story.

Folks like Al Gore add to the Hysteria surrounding oil.

I remember in around 2000 when oil was $10 a barrel the Saudis where screaming blue murder they were all going to starve to death because they weren't making any money.

This is not a simple subject it directly affects us all to our core personal security no wonder there are so many myths surrounding it.

When we really start to run out , a solution will be discovered, most likely by a capitalist of some sort. Definitley not by some negative left wing whiner,enviromentalist,polititan or otherwise useless individual.

Probably.........but 'new' oil is very expensive to get out of the ground.

"There"s only enough oil left for 100 years!! Oh my God!! What are we to do!! What am I going to burn in my old F-150 that has no catholic converter or anti-population devices!! Must I turn to Key-Auto! I just put a new hood ornament on it yesterday. It's shaped like a beaver!! It does get agnawing afer a while! The bumper sticker says, "I brake for beavers." God bless Exxon!

"There"s only enough oil left for 100 years!! Oh my God!! What are we to do!! What am I going to burn in my old F-150 that has no catholic converter or anti-population devices!! Must I turn to Key-Auto! I just put a new hood ornament on it yesterday. It's shaped like a beaver!! It does get agnawing afer a while! The bumper sticker says, "I brake for beavers." God bless Exxon!

"There"s only enough oil left for 100 years!! Oh my God!! What are we to do!! What am I going to burn in my old F-150 that has no catholic converter or anti-population devices!! Must I turn to Key-Auto! I just put a new hood ornament on it yesterday. It's shaped like a beaver!! It does get agnawing afer a while! The bumper sticker says, "I brake for beavers." God bless Exxon!

Thanks Danivan at 5:12.
Canadians don't use wheat per se, they use flour (refined wheat). An extensive list could be made up of all the other resources we use that have to be refined.
The lack of refining capacity is a shame for a G8 country located as far north as we are with the resources we have on hand. Canada is an exporter of oil! WE have enough to sustain our standard of living well into the future if we use OUR resources (oil and uranium) for our higher energy needs. (higher than warmer more compact countries)
Peak oil is a red herring (IMO) that is stiffling the capital infusion to build more refineries in Canada.
There is a huge opportunity for this country to reduce its cost for energy by using what we already have.
G

As Sheik Yamani observed, the Stone Age ended - but it was not for a lack of stones.

It does not matter if it 25 or 100 years, there will be enough oil for a long enough time for someone to develop something or improve something.

Maybe our cars in 50 years will run on the energy the pessimistic left emits, I don't know but I am sure before we run out of oil or before the price goes too high, some capitalist westerner - probably an optimistic conservative - will come up with some ingenious solution.

I can bet everything I own that the solution will not come from Al Gore, Michael Moore, Noam Chomsky or some of other dysfunctional neurotic alarmist defeatist anti-capitalist leftist.

The Ethanol craze will be over soon. One reason is that John McCain does not believe in it, and he will be the American's choice for President.
Other reasons have been articulated above.

we can never run out of oil its true except for the one wild card - government.

think how many times the worlds number two oil reserve has already been threatened in just the past few months by what most think of as a friendly regime? we had two levels of government investigating and a whole lot of folks clamouring for additional regulation, immediate stoppage , massive fines and general malaise over a few hundred ducks.

zog: did you even real the article?

Yes oil is non-renewable, but we have approx 3 to 400 years of reserves so it is for our mortal purposes an unlimited resource.

el gordo: please read the article and refer to my post above - technology will make "new" oil less expensive just as microwave ovens and satellites are far less expensive than they were 20 yrs ago. Here's an additional example - drill bits that use ultra-hard materials that can drill an entire hole without needing to be replaced.

Someone above is predicting the price of oil will go down to $40 a barrel,

I am not as optimistic as you but there is a good chance if a Republican is elected next November, the price will eventually go down, by how much? hard to say.

But if Democrat is elected, I'm almost 100% sure it will go up.

Democrats for the last 30 years have opposed a long list of things that would have driven the price of oil down from building new refineries in the USA to drilling in Alaska.

And our own leftists would block everything oil related in Canada if they could.

Technology will not make (most) new oil less expensive. THAI is not less expensive than light crude that flows from a Saudi well at 100,000 bbl per day. And it is more expensive to refine. Most, if not all of the large, mostly untapped resources are expensive to produce and refine, e.g. oilsands, oil shales, and offshore sources, to name a few.

Light sweet oil is not becoming cheaper to find. Particularly when you factor in political instability.

"Light sweet oil is not becoming cheaper to find. Particularly when you factor in political instability."

Exactly ! Political instability.

Same reason we see world hunger on a regular basis - even when Farmers have bins full of unsold grain. Political turmoil is a problem in the Third World.

Come to think of it, Political Turmoil is a problem in the Western World also :)

shawn

like AL-koh-hall from corn, a little inovation doubled the "out-put" of this resource without adding extra energy costs

as a few have pointed out, it's not the supply, it's the GREED that drives the current price-scare

Adjusted for inflation Non-conventional crude is probably as about as expensive to develop and refine as offshore GofM oil was in the 60s.

ME conventional crude has gone from being cheap to develop to being almost free relative to the size of the find.

As for the political barriers to O & G development they exist almost everywhere from California to NL to Iran to Nigeria. Were some of those barriers to relax - democracy in Iraq being a current example that is soon to bear fruit - who knows how low the price could fall to.

I saw one comment and almost fell off my chair.

"40 to 50 years is not infinite."

One of the Saudis said the same thing. So whether you have 30 BILLION in the bank or not there's no shortage of morons out there.

Does ANYBODY seriously think that we won't have achieved some form of technological advance in the next HALF CENTURY that oil will be as obsolete as buggy whips? Gimmie a break. No wonder the sheeple don't have an issue with expensive gas. They can't imagine a world that runs on anything but!

Read any book before the turn of the century and see how brutal life was before oil & natural gas.

I just finished 'Arc Of The Medicine Line' - surveying the 49th parallel, 1873-74. Travel, heat, cooking, surviving was an experience that even the Hippies of today would not enjoy. (I know, I know - they would just hitch hike)

For sake of argument, if my figures are correct, to replace the 85 million barrels of daily world oil consumption, it would take 33 million cords of wood.

33 million cords a day ! (4ft X 4ft X 8ft)

Add many, many millions more to make up for the Natural Gas and ... how many days before all the forest in the world would be leveled !!??

Would 'Back-to-the-Cave Dave' like that ??

Wind - unreliable, expensive
Solar - dark at night, expensive
Biofuels - net energy loss, food
Hydro - flooding protests

Peak Oats !

In the early 1900s, New Yorkers were worried there would not be enough oats for all the horses.

There will never be a " Peak Leftist"

we will never run out of them.

There is a truly infinite resource of leftists.

Don't count on the oil sands to quickly provide the needed oil. Over the last 7 years, production in Canada's oil sands has increased 600,000 barrels per day, in the wake of a massive investment program.

Over the same time frame, the decline in one field alone, Cantarell in Mexico, has been about 800,000 barrels per day. This decline is expected to accelerate.

The oil sands, while huge, and very prolific, require an enormous capital installation to exploit. That takes time to put in place.

"...some form of technological advance..."

Actually, a technological advance that would have gone a long way to solve the problem has ALREADY been around for half a century but, having a technology and using it are two different things. Now we have perhaps half a century to partially wean ourselves from oil dependency. That won't be easy because the developing world will still be on oil long after the technologically advanced countries have drastically cut their consumption.

Anyway, any switch from oil to electricity or to an as yet undiscovered "something else" couldn't be done overnight and cold turkey. Thus the need to husband the resource we have during the transition. Remember, it's not just a question of switching energy sources. Our entire infrastructure is designed and built for a carbon economy and changes will entail enormous capital costs.

Gord Tulk: If you mean Kohlmayer's piece, yes I've read it. It's interesting but pretty short on science and engineering - his resource figures are over the moon. If you don't start out with hard-nosed science, economics go out the door.

As others here have mentioned,"alternative" energy sources have inherent limitations. The huge energy problem for Canada is its size and location. The "green" agenda is nothing but noise and static that has prevented Canada as a nation from maintaining its focus on cheap RELIABLE energy.
Canada was one of a few countries developing nuclear energy as both a base load domestic energy source and exportable technology. WE need a stable energy source moreso than Japan or France. We're a lot colder, and flung out population wise.
Extracting and refining oil by using nuclear as a heat source as well as an electrical source would drop our oil recovery cost imensely.
So what if we can't use it? I mean no one uses crude. We use gasoline/diesel/jet fuel.
Build the refineries and use what we have NOW. (oil and uranium)
This refinery infrastructure problem WILL bite us in the rear as the climate cools and our manufacturing sector tries to upgrade high tech while developing our raw resources to higher priced products for export.
G

I was of course referring to nuclear-electric. Maybe not self-evident in my post of 9:17

DaninVan

The refinery issue is a red herring, and completely off base. Crack spreads (the margins the refineries make) are pitifully low, reflecting more than adequate capacity.

That there have been no refineries built in North America in 3 decades is offset by refineries built elsewhere, and capacity upgrades at existing refineries.

More refineries will not reduce the price of oil.

Zog:
His resource figures pretty much match up with what I have read/heard. The key is the difference between "proven" and "potential" reserves. Over time more and more known reserves are converted into proven - read: economically viable reserves.

DaveY:
Actually I think it's highly likely that fossils will be providing the bulk of our energy needs 50 yrs from now - particularly in transportation. They are in abundance and technology has steadily made it more and more pollution-free. (a 1970 beetle polluted at a 1000 times higher a rate than a "new" beetle does - it probably polluted more just sitting in the driveway on a warm dry volatilizing fuel out of the tank than a new beetle does at a steady 70mph) Whether we are burning gasoline or hydrogen or CH4 (once the AGW fad abates) remains to be seen, but the internal combustion engine - probably piston - will probably be the technology in use too. Also, oil is gaining an ever-increasing role as a building/structural material. Plastics are the ultimate recyclable too - they are resistant to decay and require little energy to convert back into a (re)usable form.

None of the alternate sources to fossils can compete except nuclear and unless we all get over our NIMBY attitude towards it, it will never gain ground versus simple and ridiculously cheap coal.

Woodporter:
Oilsands development will accelerate with new tech like THAI which is a fraction of the cost/complexity of SAGD - the current established method. And unlike conventional reservoirs the develpments have a much more static output level. The current and future bottleneck may be upgrader capacity but that too looks to be being addressed.

"An evil worse than depletion" says Simmons of the decline in energy infrastructure.

I'm feeling a little creaky my own self.

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/simmons/simmons051008/simmons051008.html#

Woodporter; you're playing with words, you little devil. The cost of crude oil has nothing to do with refinery capacity. The owners will charge whatever the market will bear for their finished products. As long as they make their margins they don't care what the raw material costs, however by restricting production they, like OPEC, force the selling price up, but then you already know that.
http://www.forbes.com/2005/02/17/cz_0217oxan_canadaoil.html

"Another key concern is the lack of refinery capacity available in Canada to absorb the increased production expected over the next ten to 15 years. The number of refineries has declined over the last two decades. As a result, refining capacity is now approximately 2 million b/d and, in 2002 and 2003, refineries operated at just over 90% of their capacity--leaving little room for increased production. While Canada is able to export unrefined crude to the United States and other locations, the lack of refining capacity within the country will limit the ability of Canadian oil firms to demand premium prices."

DaninVan
(Tks for the link)
Living in the lower mainland I remember when Edmonton had a problem with the refinery there, having to lower capacity for a breif period.
Living close to a major port on the Pacific and watching fuel trucks coming north from Washington state made me sick. The pump price spiked for a while also.(transportation costs??)

A question if I may.

Does anyone know if a "mini" refinery exists out there in the world?
I'm asking, wondering if oil refining could be modeled on the mini nuclear model Japan uses.
Would it make sense dispersing our refining assets throughout Canada?
(I know it already is dispersed, but I'm wondering how we could mitigate an unforseen closure of one of the main refinerys we depend on. They are all already maxed out. Think of a Katrina Canada style.)

Tks
G

DaninVan

I'll concede you did not claim that refinery capacity is responsible for high oil prices, but many others have. Every discussion on high oil prices seems to eventually lead to someone claiming we need more refineries.

On the point of lack of refinery capacity in Canada, it is valid and a result of increasing oil production here. But at the same time there is declining production south of the border, resulting in a growing surplus of refining capacity there. Given the enormous capital costs of refineries, the market is simply solving this issue by refining the growing Canadian oil supply in the US.

Again, given the current low margins in the industry, there is little incentive to build another refinery here.

Actually, the model for successful new refineries is the Jamnagar complex in India. Large, coastal (boats of oil in, boats of product out), with low labor costs, and none of the environmental straight jackets applied here, this is tough to compete with, and part of the reason for low refinery margins.

The Irving family of Saint John, N.B, home of Canada's largest oil refinery, in partnership with international oil company BP,is currently studying the feasibilty of building another 300,000 bpd refinery at a cost of $7 billion. Decision expected in 2009.

Next to the new LNG plant and pipeline built by Irving and Spanish partner Repsol. Close to the nuclear plant currently being refurbished. Up the road from the new $2 billion potash plant. Also waiting expected positive decision to build 1 or 2 new reactors.

Hope someone out there can answer this for me. I was listening to Roy Green's talk show yesterday. Lately Roy has been on a tear about the price of a barrel of oil and the subsequent price of gas. At one point he asked the question: How much oil is in a barrel? Now I believe that the answer is 45 gallons.

If that is the answeror whatever the correct answer is, are those Imperial gallons or US gallons (1/5th smaller). Anyone?

Oil IS NOT A FOSSEL FUEL IT DIDNT COME FROM PREHISTORIC CREATURES AND THE ANWR IS NOT A FRAGILE ECO-SISTEM

Oil is priced on the world market.

Blame the high price on those who have control over reserves and production.

Who are the biggest ?
State Oil Companies:
Saudi Arabia, Iran, (all ME Oil)
Russia
Venezuela
Mexico

I stand to be corrected, but are the majors, Exxon, Shell ect, only im control of about 15% of the world's oil reserves and production ?

Those doggone Socialists, they sure know how to rip us off !!

adb:
"The standard barrel of crude oil or other petroleum product (abbreviated bbl) is 42 US gallons (34.972 Imperial gallons or 158.987 L)"

(With two fingers down my throat as I quote "wiki".)
G

That's right. However, the standard barrel for refined gasoline (before bulk deliveries became common) was the "45" i.e. 45 Imperial gallons. Gas was also sold in 10s where transportation was a problem. Don't ask me how this came about! Measurements are funny things.

I remember hauling and refueling aircraft out of those "45's" up in the arctic and northern Canada.
Thats why I was curious and surprised at the actual numbers
G

How big is BIG Exxon-Mobile ??

[Exxon Mobil, the world's largest privately owned oil company, owns only 1.08 percent of the world's oil reserves.]

What !? Well what about all the other Big Oils ??

[ ..the five largest private global oil companies together own only about 4 percent of the world's oil reserves.]

So who controls all the rest ??

[OPEC is an international government cartel made up of Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Libya, Angola, Algeria, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. These nations control about 77 percent of the world's known liquid crude oil reserves.]

Add in Russian oil , state owned, and Mexico, state owned and .. they got it all.

mmmmm, so if the Socialists own/control most of the world's oil and the Global Warming Alarmists/Kyoto/United Nations/Eco Fanatics want to stop the Western World from exploring for more oil and to stop using what we do have ... well who's side are they on anyways !??

Link for above

http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=8778

ron in K:

I'm assuming that those numbers do not include oilsands and other unconventional reserves.

As the supply of oil decreases, demand increases, prices will naturally do what?? (in the abscence of alternatives). D'oh.

The longer it takes to find alternative sources of energy the longer we will be at the whim of countries-many of whom-support state funded terrorism.

It seems, yet again, the boat has been missed.