I found it strange that pundits were saying that these by-elections would be a real test of Dion's leadership abilities. In the strongest of Liberal strongholds? I would venture that if the Libs don't get overwhelming majorities in each of these ridings, that Dion's days are numbered.

Three libs and one conservative.

I hope the Liberals win all four or we'll never have an election.
If Dion loses 2 out the 4, Harper could introduce a confidence motion into the House instructing John Baird to go to Stornaway and beat Dion's dog to death with the bumper of a Hummer and Dion's only response before abstaining would be to politely ask them not to get the carpet bloody.

One ND, one Conservative and Two leftist abstainers! ( Toronto )

Rae will get in, and that means he will take over Dion's place as the liberal leader. We all know that anyway.

Hahaha... poor Kyoto... Harper could introduce a motion to convert Stornoway into Canada's largest and most exclusing Tim Horton's!

Rae will get in, and that means he will take over Dion's place as the liberal leader. We all know that anyway.

Rae will get in, and that means he will take over Dion's place as the liberal leader. We all know that anyway.

Quadra is going to surprise us this evening. Tory win
Willowdale will be closer then expected. Liberal hold
Rosedale will shock Bob Rea. NDP win
Saskatchewan will return to the Tories.

what a hiccup, jumped right over Bob's text.

My prediction: A family in Green Lake will be watching shows on their raffle-won brand-new TV by tonight.

Voter turnout in the northern reaches of the Sask riding will be 105%.

Jim O'Brien: "Rosedale will shock Bob Rea. NDP win"

While not wishing for any more Taliban Jacks or Jacqettes in the HoC, I can see there would be a neat irony in Boob Bray being knocked off by the party he abandoned by the tony Rosedale voters.

Happy St. Patrick's Day!!

Im not sure anyone else is running,

http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/parliament39/byelections.html

CBCpravda , All Liberal , All the Time

*
i used to live in toronto rosedale... rae showing naked buttocks on
rick mercer show... went over huge with a certain demographic.

i'm predicting rae by a cheek.

*

Just watched Layton on Duffy .... could you people please refrain talking about beating things ..... don't make me a freaking maniac ...

These by-elections have nothing to do with Dion. But that's irrelevant to the MSM, who will see the inevitable wins in long-held Liberal territory as 'confirmation of the Liberal Majesty and Might ..and Dion'.

The agenda of the Liberals is to get Rae in, and then, he'll 'de facto' become the Liberal leader. BUT, BUT, the Liberals are going to be presenting themselves to the public as Team Canada. Team Players. The Liberals - all about collaboration, Working Together..blah blah.

So, they'll have Dion netted and tied to Rae. And Ignatieff. And Goodale. You see, the Liberals, being Good Guys, Work With Everyone. Together. All images in the future will show them all together.

The Liberals will portray the Conservatives and Harper as - The Dictator. Unwilling To Work With Others...unlike we Liberals who are open to Canadians, to multiculturalism, to doing everything together..blah blah.

It's quite the strategy. They can't get rid of Dion by having an election because that would cost them too many seats. They can't fling him into the Rideau canal because.... So, their tactic of dealing with Dion is to reject the very Notion of Leadership.

Not for the Liberals. A single leader - heck, that's a tyrant. A dictator. A Bush..and Harper. well, isn't he the Northern Bush???? Remember, truth and validity have no relevant in the Liberal Planet.

So- I' guessing the Liberals will win the two Toronto seats. I hope, I hope, they don't win them all.

I'm going to be honest - I think the Conservatives have done a very poor job at informing the public about the vast amount of work that this govt under Harper has accomplished.

Since we've got the MSM papers and CBC, CTV, focusing only on Liberal Love and anti-Conservatives, the MSM doesn't inform the public.
Therefore, the public doesn't have any idea just how much has been accomplished under this govt. The govt has to do more to inform the citizens - and expecting people to check out govt sites isn't the answer.

I figure the two TO ridings and Quadra will go Liberal. I'm holding out hope for the good folks of Saskatchewan to throw the bums out.

I'm currently in TO Centre.

I think it will come down to the motivation of Dionistas. It's a sunny day and being St. Patrick's, there's a lot of drinking that needs to be done, so I don't know if people will get out there.

What I do know is that the advance polls have been very poorly attended - which may tell you something about interest. I hope I'm not speaking out of school when I say this but I've heard rumours that Elections Canada is refusing to release numbers from some advance polls because it would violate confidentiality. Which is to say that in some polls you had only 1 or 2 people voting.

So who is more motivated? I would be stunned if we Tories won this riding, but I would not be at all surprised if the numbers changed a lot and the Liberal victory was much much narrower than the press is making out.

Vancouver Quadra? I drove through there before I left the city - in the sign war, the Tories were clear losers with only 1 sign that I saw. The Dippers are winning that battle for sure, easily outnumbering the Liberals. But once again, it's down to motivation. I think the Liberals may keep that one - but again in a squeaker.

CPAC was doing a live broadcast of a Toronto talk radio show and the idiots allowed Martha Hall Findlay to be in the studio answering questions and calls. It's Election Day . . . not campaign Day

Talk about freebie against the rule liberal advertising on election day . . no wonder the fools vote Liberal.

I'll say 2 Toronto ridings will stay Liberal - you could run anything in red, from a fire hydrant to a red painted horse's patoot and the drones in Toronto would vote Liberal.

The Sask race will go CPC and Quadra/BC will go Green - lotsa University folks who are Kyoto Believers and a True Believers.

Im not sure anyone else is running,

http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/parliament39/byelections.html

CBCpravda , All Liberal , All the Time

Posted by: cal2 at March 17, 2008 5:15 PM

That initial article references the various political parties thusly:
Liberals 8
Conservatives 2
NDP 3 (and 1 was for Bob Rae as an ex-NDP)
Green 0

then when you dig into the 4 articles for each of the by-elections

Toronto Centre:
Liberals 6
Conservatives 2
NDP 3
Green 1

Willowdale:
Liberals 5
Conservatives 2
NDP 1
Green 1

DMC:
Liberals 6
Conservatives 2
NDP 3
Green 1

Vancouver Quadra:
Liberals 6
Conservatives 2
NDP 1
Green 1

One of the talking heads on Duffy mentioned the ethnic Chinese vote in one of the Moronto ridings , and the fact they were concerned about property crimes ....that they were'nt in favour of them . Where do they find these idiots ?

This is how a filthy Liberal votes, 36 percent of them to date!

Do you think the Chinese response to unrest in Tibet should trigger a boycott of the Beijing Olympics?

Yes
64% 8279 votes
8279 votes

No
36% 4727 votes
4727 votes

Go and cancel Boob Rae's vote.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/

thanks for counting reid, so basicly 3 to one at best.

I actually dont see any reference in the main article.

RobertJago you're right about motivation the people who give a shit are motivated, first you vote then you carry on. I'm hoping the nice sunny day will keep the LPC voters on the patio drinkin green bevvies basking in their own supreme apathy

Saw the braaaawwwdcast. Newman, who has been obsessed recently with keeping the so-called NAFTAgate and Cadman affairs in the spotlight as long as he can, was all silent on the Strategic Council poll (mentioned on Duffy Live, but ignored by Newman), which showed nearly 2/3 of those surveyed didn't have their views changed of Harper as a result of the two issues.

The poll is significant because it reveals a large number of those surveyed who don't even support the Harper gov't agree that these are not huge issues.

On the by-elections Newman spoke with Joe Jordan, a "consultant", giving his analysis. The same Joe Jordan - fmr. Liberal MP, who, along with Marlene Jennings, worked to obstruct the 2004 committee probing the $ponsorship $candal.

Oh yeah, the spin stops here!

Well, my vote went to Don Meredith earlier today. As I said here somewhere before, if we really wanted to screw the Libs, we should have voted NDP, but Meredith doesn't deserve to be treated like that.

What I wouldn't give to see Rae sitting on his ass tomorrow morning having lost the election that everyone assumed he would win...

"I think the Conservatives have done a very poor job at informing the public " ET

You know I think that you are dead right on this. It has mystified me that the Conservatives haven't taken some of the huge positives there are surrounding our effort in Afghanistan for example. What the hell is wrong with standing firm and being loudly proud of what we are doing. They didn't, and they seem to employ the same heads down strategy on everything else as well.

Nope. up. Loud and proud. The MSM would pick up on it and broadcast it far and wide as if it was going to hurt them. My guess, it wouldn't. I've an inkling their is a much larger audience for straight talk, pride, and the antithesis of Socialist pandering to every interest group imaginable than anyone in the MSM suspects.

Saw the braaaawwwdcast. Newman, who has been obsessed recently with keeping the so-called NAFTAgate and Cadman affairs in the spotlight as long as he can, was all silent on the Strategic Council poll (mentioned on Duffy Live, but ignored by Newman), which showed nearly 2/3 of those surveyed didn't have their views changed of Harper as a result of the two issues.

The poll is significant because it reveals a large number of those surveyed who don't even support the Harper gov't agree that these are not huge issues.

On the by-elections Newman spoke with Joe Jordan, a "consultant", giving his analysis. The same Joe Jordan - fmr. Liberal MP, who, along with Marlene Jennings, worked to obstruct the 2004 committee probing the $ponsorship $candal.

Oh yeah, the spin stops here!

If Adscam didn't get Torontonians angry enough (angry at all) to change their vote in the last election then nothing will.

A popular sentiment expressed by Torontonians in 2006 was that they feared a Harper majority and that was a key reason (excuse) for voting Liberal. These by-elections don't change the balance of power. Yet both Toronto ridings will go solidly Liberal again tonight. Collective dishonesty then and now.

Maybe their reasons this time for voting solidly Liberal will be to show their support for Dion's strong leadership style, his opposition to the budget, opposition to extending the combat role of the Afghanistan mission past Feb 2009, and the LPC's collective works of confidence motion abstentions and walkouts. Stand proud Torontonians.

The CPC shouldn't waste a single dime in fielding candidates anywhere in Toronto in the next election.

I suppose a question for Bob Rae if one were to be as unlucky as to live in his riding would be are you going to be wearing running shoes so you can head to the hallways as fast as the rest of the libs?

Will people please exercise some patience, and stop double-and triple-posting your comments?

Thank you.

I'd like to think that we could pick up Vancouver Quadra (with a following wind!). I drive through it twice a week and I'd say garden posters (if that's any guide to voting patterns) are split pretty evenly between Liberals and Tories. BC is a law unto itself though and I doubt if much insight can be gained into the national picture from the result here tonight. Much more interesting is the size of the Liberal victories in Willowdale and Toronto Centre.

Perhaps it's time for some strategic voting in TO next election.
Maybe the CPC voters should be voting NDP to reduce the number of liberal MPs.
ABL.
Anything But Liberal.
Hmmmmmmmmm.

TC Rosedale hase very, very, very little "Rosedale" to it at all. Furthermore, there aren't all that many Lib/NDP in Rosedale - it's a conservative stronghold full of very good people with VERY conservative ideas. A few Joe Clarkites (John Tory, come on down) and some idiot media types and mentally deficient heirs. Unfortunately the riding is designed (along with the rest of the midtown Toronto ridings) to be dominated by the slums of St. Jamestown/Jarvis/Regnt Park as well as Boystown and Cabbagetown. Liberals have done very well to ensure that the core conservative constituency in Toronto is split up amongst a number of ridings, with no ridings having any actual identity or commonality of interests. Very nice gerrymandering to perpetuate the lie of "Liberal Toronto" so well that even conservatives believe it.

Anyone have any info on voter turnout, like long lines waiting to vote, crowded polling stations.
Maybe PMSH and Dion should make a pact, we wont run in Toronto and Dion will not run in AB.
Then PMSH can make another pact with Layton, we will lend you our vote in all Toronto ridings.
The loss of 1.75/vote will be made up by no campaign costs in Toronto.
But, we will fight like hell in the rest of Ontario. Any idea of how many liberal voters have moved west since 2006.

Where are the Libs,especially Dion going to get money for an election? On Duff tonite,he said Dion still owes about a MILLION dollars from the leadership farce.He then mentioned Iggy,Hall-Findlay etc still owe huge sums,with Bob Rae being only one that has paid his off.??Desmarais money? And who better financially to fight the next leadership bid...unless the just coronate him.

errr...Garth???

Maybe switch to decaf....just kidding

hey - I think you are wrong about Toronto Centre. It's heavily Liberal. That includes Rosedale. Big money was what funded the Old Liberal Boys, before Chretien, to prevent Martin's funding, changed the political funding scheme to wipe out corporate funding of political parties.

Remember, Chretien used the taxpayer's money for his own campaigns in Quebec.

The downtown Toronto core has been dramatically changed over the past 10 years by zoning changes which permitted multiple condos along the Lakeshore, around the Market, and further along - all very expensive condos. A tiny one bedroom, about 450 sq ft, going for 250,000. Larger ones going for twice that. The area is geared to the lifestyles of the civil service, the education, the health services, etc etc - all government jobs. All Liberals. That includes the banks and finance area - many of these people live in the area.

It's Liberal - because they've been socialized within the idea of Canada as 'Liberal'. They don't think about any issues, and the buzz topics of Afghanistan, Kyoto, etc, are accepted without thought or analysis.

Other areas in the district are poorer. And ethnic. They are Liberal too, because the Liberals have deliberately set themselves up to entrap these people within a welfare and subsidized lifestyle. Rather than enabling them to be entrepreneurs or to assimilate with Canada, the LIberals have set them up to depend on subsidized housing, on grants to maintain their 'old ways'...and so on. Heck - it brings in the votes.

Rae is being touted as The White Knight by the Liberals. He's going to save them. They are presenting themselves as Team Workers. As Rae says, "There's no 'I' in 'team'.

Neat. But there's an 'I' in Liar and Thief.

Sorry, ET, I think Hey is probably right.

Toronto Centre is demographically dominated by very low income and gay voters. The rich people at the top of the riding and at the bottom of the riding are not so numerous. Any one of the dozens of very low income housing apartments on Sherbourne between Bloor and Queen would have as many voters in it as half of Rosedale.

The so-called "rich" parts of Rosedale are at least split 50/50 lib/CPC, and I think sentiment is shifting away from the Libs in this group, as increasingly the libs are being identified with failed social policies.

I think the vote talley at individual polling stations is only way to tell the truth of what goes on in this riding. Is there any way to access that short of showing up at the election headquarters?

go here to be able to pick up results

http://enr.elections.ca/

Losing half would likely mean Dion should just go back to the academic world.

I thought Liberals didn't believe in abstinence, that they saw it as oppressive and hateful and denounced any attempt by schools to recommend it to students.

Now we see them practicing it with quasi-religious zeal.

Irony of ironies!

Lori- what about the reasonably rich people who lilve in the new condos around the St. Lawrence Market, and Richmond St, King St,..etc. And the old ones around Bloor and Jarvis..

I agree with you that the single family house in Rosedale has fewer voters than the apartments along Sherbourne - which are indeed, low, low income. And there are quite a few of those buildings.

I was watching at one polling station in Toronto Centre - and the turnout is low.

I still think the riding is heavily Liberal. That includes the new condos built in the last ten years. And the ethnic minorities. The NDP might take the Church St. gay community but what else?

We'll see. I can't imagine the CPC will win it, but it would sure be fun if the NDP did! Ahh, that would show Bob Rae.

ET: the "reasonably rich" people at St. Lawrence etc are the ones I was referring to as the "bottom" of the riding. They are new to the riding compared to a decade ago, but there can't be 1000 of them. Probably much less, and even less will turn out to vote.

Turnout at my polling station seemed sparse, but it was early in the day, and I was not there for long. Judging by the amount of media coverage in the past month, turnout should be very light.

Unfortunately the Liberals could run Martha Hall Findlay's dog in the Willowdale riding and win handily. Depressing indeed.

thanks for counting reid, so basicly 3 to one at best.

I actually dont see any reference in the main article.

Posted by: cal2 at March 17, 2008 5:56 PM

I did a 'Ctrl F' search in each of those articles for "Liberal, Conservative, NDP, and Green."

Interesting bit of info on MDL tonight... that Dion is in Toronto tonight. So you'll see him with MHF & Mr. Rae Daze on the news tonight when the Trawna sheeple line up at the Liberal trough to vote tonight.

who cares? really, what will change? nothing - Canada is no longer a democracy

New Poll at NNW: Will the Lieberals sweep all 4 By-Elections?
http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/index.php?option=com_poll&task=results&id=27&mosmsg=Thanks+for+your+vote%21

Scott Reid(fear and popcorn) has just predicted a Liberal sweep because most canadians are progressive. Well,that does it for me,no further need to watch.

What is the AAEV or whatever party. Never heard of them.
Get over to National Newswatch and vote NO in the poll, before results start coming in.

OOps,he hasn't conceded the Sask. riding. Sorry,my bad. But wow,is he ever looking puffy and bloated. Either he needs to change his diet or his cosmetician.

Toronto, as usual, will chew on broken glass and vote Liberal. I can't figure out why, that's for sure. But I do agree with one of the earlier posters in the fact that hopefully the Liberals win a few so we can go to the polls already...

Just saw Gerry Ritz in a Meadow Lake restaurant an hour ago. Wish'd them the best.

Like ET, I am not looking forward to the Liberals "dream team" phoniness. This was mentioned by Craig Oliver the other day, and I was appalled when he gratuitously added in his own comment "a team approach -- which Canadians seem to prefer to the more authoritarian one-man Harper approach. (not exact wording, but close) -- so, would any one call Jean Chretien or Trudeau "team players" -- the "team" mantra is essentially a cover-up for a weak leader. In addition, I would dearly love to know how well that "team" will operate behind closed doors. I think there are a few rogues on the "team."

Conservative candidate romping in Desenthe/Churchill; so far, anyway.

Hmmm,I wonder if the same pundits who so accurately predicted the AB. election moved over to Sask. Reid is telling us that this shows steffi's a man of his word by putting a woman in the riding. Let the spin cycle begin.

Remeber the last time the Liberals ran under the team approach.

Team Martin.....how did that work out for ya.

Liberal Joan Beatty 1,028 32.7 32.7%
Conservative Rob Clarke 1,537 49.0 49.0%
NDP-New Democratic Party Brian Morin 491 15.6 15.6%
Green Party Robin Orr 83 2.6 2.6%
Total number of valid votes: 3,139
Polls reporting: 55/182 Voter turnout: 3,139 of 41,841 registered electors (7.5%)

Goto
Elections Canada and click on the Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River link for all four electoral district results.

Dang, the link worked in the preview....try again.

Elections Canada

I just took a quick look over at the aging wanna-be punk's(jailhouse variety)website and he is boldly predicting that the greens will take more votes than the conservative candidate. Sure thing,bub.

Above post refers to MHF's riding.

CP declares Rae and Hall-Findlay elected

CPC candidate has 49% to 31% for Joan Beatty, with 65/181 reporting. Not declared the winner yet.

The Conservatives had a very good candidate going against Martha: Maureen Harquail Too bad she did not get more profile. I hope we have not seen the last of her.

Looking at the # of polls reported so far and the vote totals for the Toronto ridings... Willowdale won't even hit 25% voter turn out and Toronto Centre won't hit 30%. Sad.

MaryT

AAEV Party of Canada is short for the Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party of Canada. I guess when the Green Party is not "Green" enough, you have an alternative.

AAEV Party

The noteworthy item is the collapse of the NDP vote in the Ontario ridings. I suspect that the prominence and name-recognition of the Liberal candidates may have something to do with that, however.

Greens (Chris Tindall) making a good showing too.

Still waiting for the vulk of the Vancouver polls.

lol...the Rhino party is running a "John Turner" in Quadra. Anyone seen "The Distinguished Gentleman"? :)

Conservatives up by almost 12% from '06 in only close riding so far.

Dion's hand picked person no less.

Looks like Quadra will be a squeaker.

Nice.

Very nice.

Yeah, I was watching the voter turnout too.

25% would be incredibly bad, isn't it?

In Rosedale-Toronto Centre, I think that this is accounted for, however by the large number of non-voting non-english speaking people who live here.

What is the historical turnout in federal elections? In provincial it is typically 60%.

My poor CPC candidate Don Meredith is running fourth at this point, even behind the greens. Sigh. Looks like I am doomed to be represented by a Lib or NDP forever....

Quadra looks do-able for the CPC. But still early.

I would be great to get two out four.

sask is very interesting...quadra would be too much to hope for...no?

Does anyone in the Toronto Center Riding not remember what Bob Rae did to that Province?
I think Seffie will give Bob the Finance portfolio.
Rod

Lori:

Check the polling data from the last two elections, Bill Graham won almost every single poll in the entire riding and all of the polls in Rosedale.

Not that the CPC had any chance in Toronto Centre, but Harper did not help the cause in this by-election by yanking a democratically elected nominee well known and well liked in the riding in favour of a hand-picked nominee kool-aid drinker. That is why the Greens beat the Conservatives in Toronto Centre tonight. Layton is the reason the Greens beat the NDP.

More interesting side note, though: your assumption that working class/Tim Horton's would not vote Conserservative and that wealthy people would, is a revealing comment though.

As of now: 10:36, in Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River by-election, the Conservative candidate, Rob Clarke, is in the lead:

91/182 polls counted: 2,353 votes/45.2%

Liberal Joan Beatty:

91/182 polls counted: 1,795 votes/34.5%

Deborah Meredith ahead in Quadra 338 t0 307.

Dare to dream.

Conservatives briefly ahead in Vancouver Quadra and the neoRhino party is up to 3 votes.

why anyone would give that man another shot at politics- in ontario no less- is baffling!

Or even *b*ulk of the Vancouver polls ... sheesh.

Conservative Deborah Meredith 338 39.8
Liberal Joyce Murray 307 36.2

Still early days yet though 10/237 polls reporting.

LOL Ted. There isn't really a "Tim Horton's" constituency in Rosedale Toronto Centre.

There is an upper middle class and rich group, which I would guess vote 50/50 conservative/Lib, with few greens. This group is probably less than

There is gay constituency, which likely votes NDP/Lib

There is an immigrant/student/urban poor constituency which would vote Lib or NDP. With Bob Rae they get the best (or worst) of both worlds.

Here are the 2006 demographics of this riding:
2006 population: 121,407
2001-2006 population change: +6.0%
Visible Minority: 41.3%
Median Household Income: $40,168
Rented: % 72.8%, versus owned: % 27.2%

Vancouer Quadra is really really close, currently two votes separating the Libs and Cons after 13 polls reporting. This one already has "recount" written all over it.

It seems a foregone conclusion that Bob Rae would win, no matter what his record in this province:

1) Canadian wimpism

2) Canadian surrender-monkeyism

3) Canadian MSM cheerleaders

3) Canadian Power Corp/Paul Desmarais Jr.s' first-choice is Bob Rae, which means he has all of their power/financial resources at his disposal

The funny thing is, people keep writing about how relaxed and personable Bob Rae is. I find him pompous, not comfortable in his skin, self-conscious, and frankly unattractive.

I guess my taste isn't universal!

You have to step back and laugh at the absurdity of people in Toronto voting for Rae though. It's quite possible no premier in Canadian history has done as much damage to his province's economy as Rae did with his socialist nonsense, yet here he is, sweeping the riding and the favoured son to take over from Dion.

Good choice by those in Toronto-Centre... sending a party turncoat who destroyed Ontario's economy ($1 million an HOUR debt service charge!) to Ottawa with a strong mandate to abstain.

Change #s 1 and 2:

Ontario/Toronto wimpism

Ontario/Toronto surrender monkeyism

Conservative Deborah Meredith 1,007 37.2
Liberal Joyce Murray 1,021 37.7

Back and forth and back and forth

Sask CPC candidate Rob Clarke opening up 800+ lead. It had been cut to 300 or so a short while ago.

What was the MSM spin on the minimum take away for Dion?

Watch the media spin the percentage of the win. In my opinion Dion's base is not very large. Add up the liberal votes in both TO ridings, out of how many voters. Doesn't appear Rae willl get the number of votes Graham did.
Sask looks good for us, and BC is putting up a great fight. But, the message seems to be, do not hand pick candidates. As for not allowing the guy on TO to run for them, it is obvious that he had intentions to cross the floor at the first opportunity. That would be worse than kicking him out.
Lets not have any more comments re the low voter turnout in AB.
I think the voters in TO know they will be going to the polls again very soon, with Rae in there so why make the effort twice. Seems lots of liberals abstained today. Following their leader I think.

You have to step back and laugh at the absurdity of people in Toronto voting for Rae though. It's quite possible no premier in Canadian history has done as much damage to his province's economy as Rae did with his socialist nonsense, yet here he is, sweeping the riding and the favoured son to take over from Dion.

______________________

It's not absurd. Any urban poor riding would favour a Lib/NDP candidate. Most who voted likely did not care about "ontario's economy", only about their next government cheque or subsidized housing or similar. There is absolutely no self-helping reason for city dwellers who do not own a home to vote for CPC.

And besides, Bob Rae has been throughly rehabilitated by the MSM which loves him so much. The Toronto Star sells more papers here than the Globe and Nat Post and Toronto Sun combined.

I am hopeful, though, that a more enlightened electorate outside of Toronto will be extremely uneasy about Bob Rae as prime minister, a choice we will eventually be faced with.

Clarke has Sask. locked up. 3154 - 2217 (47-33), 115/182 reporting.

Quadra still neck and neck with 35/237 reporting (CPC has about 20 vote lead)

I'm a bit surprised at Vancouver Quadra as I expected it would look like one of the Toronto ridings. One can only hope that maybe some people in Vancouver have had a brief moment of lucidity.

CPC slightly ahead in Quadra:

Vancouver Quadra Last updated: 22:54 ET

Party Candidate Votes % Votes


NDP-New Democratic Party Rebecca Coad 485 13.4
CAP Psamuel Frank 3 0.1
Green Party Dan Grice 442 12.2
Conservative Deborah Meredith 1,356 37.4
Liberal Joyce Murray 1,327 36.6
neorhino.ca John Turner 11 0.3
Total number of valid votes: 3,624

Polls reporting: 38/237 Voter turnout: 3,624 of 83,121 registered electors (4.4%)

Win or lose in Quadra,

looks like the Conservatives picked up about 20 points.

20

points

in a

liberal

stronghold.

(in the purported heartland of "Cadscam")

Let the libs try and spin that one.

41 polls reporting in vancouver quadra:

conservative: 1477
liberal: 1476

I think the big losers tonight are clearly the NDP.

And even if the Liberals win Quadra in a squeeker, you can't spin tonight as anything other than a big loss for Dion.

Rae and Findly won on their own and had nothing to do with being Liberals.

So the 2 ridings where the Liberal brand was being voted on the Conservatives will handily win one and either win or lose the other by a small margin.

Liberal regaining lead in Quadra.

i would like to say that Bill graham looks FABULOUS in his shocking pink shirt,but he doesn't. He actually looks quite gaunt compared to the past. I wonder if he has been ill or if the fact that the age of consent is going to be raised has caused him mental stress.

Bob Rae is crying on CTV right now.
I'd cry too if I just got elected as a liberal.

Losers at this point would definitely seem to be the NDP. Trailing the Greens in Willowdale and neck and neck in Quadra and Centre.

It looks like CTV is still not willing to give Missinnippi to Conservatives yet even after 90 percent of polls reporting.

"It looks like CTV is still not willing to give Missinnippi to Conservatives yet even after 90 percent of polls reporting."

considering that they did not even feel the need to send a bloody reporter to that riding, is it any surprise?

With 160/182 polls in and a 16% spread...CPAC's schumcky anchor refuses to call the race for the Conservative. The ditz on CityTV in Toronto said "This is shocking...the Liberals aren't winning in Saskatchewan." (without irony). There's red tears running on the tube tonight, and the bias is sickening.

The interesting thing about the Green vote is that it seems to be taking from the historic NDP vote. Extending this trend to a national level may mean fewer NDP seats.

On CPAC the Red Star's Norma (missed the last name) attempted to mitigate the damage to Dion over losing the Sask riding. She stated that it was worth the gamble to achieve his 30% quota of women. Then she goes on to state the importance of the margins of victories for the Fibs in the two Toronto ridings (before substantial vote totals from BC came in), stating that the CPC has shown it still can't make gains in those ridings. So yes, the turd-polishing has begun.

Toronto Centre overwhelmingly voted Fiberal in 2006 in the wake of Gomery's report confirming Fiberal theft and corruption, voted overwhelmingly for provincial Fiberal Smitherman who did Ectacy in cabinet and who is pondering wearing a diaper in the legislature soon and voted overwhelmingly for a lying premier who brought in the biggest tax hike in Ontario's history and who has flip-flopped on so many issues just like Dion.

Eugene:

Willowdale is a pretty tony riding, at one point (don't know about now) the wealthiest riding in the country. Far worse for the NDP to lose to the Greens in Toronto Centre where you have a truly mixed income/mixed ethnicity riding.

Chad: CBC has called Missinnippi for the Conservatives, which more than makes up for the embarrassment of finishing behind the Greens and NDP in Toronto Centre.

What about the NDP? They have given a free ride to Liberals for decades and attacked Conservative parties. What is it they don't understand. They should challenge Liberals for city vote, but fold on this one in Toronto. Now there is some hope in Vancouver, though it looks like Grits will squeak this one out. So, what do we get out of it. Well, ET gets to test her theory; Dion will claim victory; Tories will welcome their new MP.

Harper must find a way to increase big city vote if he hopes to have real chance at majority government. Montreal and Vancouver would be great places to start. Anyway, looks like more minority majority government, with Dion on the outside, looking through the curtain.

Could someone tell me: what could anyone possibly find appealing about Martha Hall Findlay? I'm watching her victory speech now - strip out the narcissistic blather, and you're left with absolutely nothing. I-I-I-I-I. I think I'm going to throw up.

7 polls left in Sask. CPC leading by 1600 votes and it is still too close to call. Yes,we can all declare CTV is biased and incompetent.

I suspect the Green vote is a classic 'protest' vote. A pox on both your houses, if you wish.

It used to be the NDP that picked it up so if anyone can be tagged 'biggest loser' tonight it has to be the NDP.

Dion had a bloody nose in Sask and may squeak in in Vancouver. The NDP will be looking at this and wondering exactly why they want to bring down the government at this moment in time.

Rob Clarke on CPAC right now. Van Douche could not be more condescending. "So, I guess, congragulations are in order. Why do you think you won?" with his hand rising in astonishment. 2nd question about Beatty, how could she lose?

CTV's coverage is comparative to the 9 month cbc lovefest that we endured during the liberal "leadership" contest. All pro-liberal,all the time.Another loss by the libs touted as a victory. Go,Steffi,go.

CTV is doing a very good job with the 'Bob Rae Marathon'... oh wait? It's supposed to be by-election coverage? My mistake.

Any bets that we will not see a conservative on this coverage tonight? So far the elected candidate is invisible.

Flipped from Seinfeld to CTV news net:

Bob Rae's face engulfed the screen.

Flipped again ten minutes later:

There it was again, Bob Rae's face.

Turned TV off.

Last elecion the Lieberals took two votes for every one that went to the Conservatives (67 to 33). Tonight it's about 53 to 47. That's quite a shift away from Dion I'd say.

Graham Richardson put it well... "If I'm a Liberal, I'm asking, 'why is Vancouver-Quadra close?' ... I wouldn't want to be Stephane Dion tomorrow." The candidate in Saskachewan won her seat provincially so the result speaks volumes about Dion's arrogance in appointing the candidate (he learned nothing from Outremont) and his weak leadership.

The Friction Of The Day and a couple of other posters have nibbled at what is the big story in all of this.

The NDs have essentially lost half of their support to the greens in the three urban ridings - ridings that are (pathetically) eco-conscious (or unconscious IMO). The GP at this time has actually gotten more votes than the ND in the three urban ridings combined. While this is bad news for the unreconstructed NDs I could care less about their self-inflicted obsolescence.

What concerns me and I bet concerns Doug Findlay and co. inside the PMO is that this could mean that a CP majority is impossible.

A divided far-left vote gives the LP a much better chance of holding on to the suburbs of the big three cities and perhaps even taking a few from the ND, thus negating much of the gains that the CP is hoping to pick up in Que in oct'09.

And that, friends, is the big story of the night. I wonder if any of the MSM talking heads will figure this out in the next 24 hrs? It is good news for their side after all.

Ted: "CBC has called Missinnippi for the Conservatives, which more than makes up for the embarrassment of finishing behind the Greens and NDP in Toronto Centre."

The only embarrassment is that Torontonians VOTED IN BOB RAE, A LATTER-DAY LIBRANO. This guy is a flip-flopper, an insincere and flighty politico. 'Seems he'll do or say anything to get himself elected to political office again. He knew he hadn't a snowball's hope in He** of getting elected as a Dipper, so he changed his colours and joined the Librano$--with the emphasis on the $.

Then to add insult to injury--for the electorate--he's got $trong tie$ to Uncle Mo'$ former employer and his brother'$ present employer, Power Corp, the Puppet Ma$ter of Trudeau, Chretien, and Martin.

This really stink$$$$.

Any numbers on voter turnout?

Some wonder how Ontario voters would ignore Rae's socialist spending spree when he was Premier.
Toronto voters are not representative of Ontario voters.Toronto has that COTU complex.
And my family in Toronto still blame Harris for EVERYTHING!They seem to forget Rae's mess.
Do I have to mention they are CBC fans and Red Star readers?And they didnt work health care thru that era so they think 'Rae days' are something bright and sunny.

Gord: Harper's played his hand so well that he governs with a majority now, without Toronto support. He'll never get Toronto support. If he can govern as if he has a majority, why should he worry about pandering to Toronto? 'twas Joe Clark's downfall.

wallyj, I'm the first to bash the media as Liberal sycophants but in this case I'd say the cost of actually getting a reporter up to Northern Saskatchewan (and they wouldn't have any idea where the reporter would need to go, they didn't know who was going to win) is the main reason you won't see a reporter with Clarke. At least CPAC got him on the phone

On CTV, in response to Powers' comments on losing Sask and blowing a 21% lead from 2006, Librano strategist Reid is steering clear of him, focusing instead on NDP misfornunes ... you know it's a bad night for the Libranos,

Any numbers on voter turnout?

About 25%.
http://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts_e.aspx?ed=1323

blue tech: "Any numbers on voter turnout?"

Google "Elections Canada" (there's a link in a comment above). The results include voter turnout--which has been pretty dismal.

Most biased comment of the night:

CTV anchor saying, "And the surprise of the night is the Conservatives winning in Saskatchewan."

Average voter turnout, apparently--according to CTV--is 19%.

Dion on CTV: blames Beatty's loss on "it's a large riding, lots of remote polls that are hard to get to."

Read: no money for door prizes this time around.

Biggest laugh of the night:

Dion's response of, "I think very few people will question that," when asked about him facing criticism over selecting Beatty as the DMC candidate.

Tonda McCharles used the "dream team" refereence to discribe the additions of Rae and Findlay to the front benches. Dion can't attack PMSH anymore for not implementing all of Gomery's recommendations since Rae agrees with the PM, and Flaherty can point to Rae bankrupting Ontario. And Finley? WTF is she? What makes her so impressive? A woman pressured to run for the leadership so the LPC wouldn't have an all-male slate of candidates. "Dream team"? For whom exactly?

Well, to be fair to Hall Findlay, she wasn't pressured into running for the Liberal leadership - she was the first declared candidate.

Interesting point, Gord.

Could we see the NDP abstaining on the next confidence issue in the house while the Liberals are all gung-ho?

Actually, that wouldn't be any good .... the NDP (if they wanted to avoid an election at all costs) would have to vote with the government against the Liberals and the Bloc. Even then the Math would be tight ......

Thing is though, the divided left will still suffer from the existence of a protest vote, even it went to the Greens. The protest vote is never going to rest easily with either of the two main parties and whether the NDP or the Greens pick it up isn't worrying. It may effect a few seats out here in the Lower Mainland in BC, but the NDP vote isn't a protest vote round here ....

flaggman:

Agreed re: acting like a majority, but winning a second minority would hurt SH and the Dalton Camps (Peter Mackay) within the party would begin muttering "Dief" under their breath.

Also, there are lots of things the CP would like to do that even with the 'pseudo-majority' they have they would not dare try to get enacted.

Re: "Toronto" Is not what worries me. It's the 905 and the suburbs of Vancouver that worry me. The CP has to pick up seats in those two places in order to get 50% plus one of the country's ridings.

Let me explain a little further:

while it should on the face of it make no difference whther the votes are split between the greens and the ND it does when it makes those parties both unelectable. Many far-left voters will vote LP if they are faced with the possiblity of a CP candidate winning if they fritter away their vote on the GP or the ND.

In order for the CP to win the ND has to die and the GP take its place. Sadly, the GP has a wingnut for a leader and that means we won't be seeing the ND's demise any time soon. (And when the hell is the NDP going to hold hackey-sack jack to account for this collapse?)

...

Re: turnout

Brutally low numbers are not unexpected but worrisome for the Libs as their GOTV is not as strong in a general election as the CP's is and if this weakening turnout trends into oct'09, it would hurt them the most.

A divided far-left vote gives the LP a much better chance of holding on to the suburbs of the big three cities and perhaps even taking a few from the ND, thus negating much of the gains that the CP is hoping to pick up in Que in oct'09.

And that, friends, is the big story of the night. I wonder if any of the MSM talking heads will figure this out in the next 24 hrs? It is good news for their side after all.

I think it is the other way around. If there are only 2 parties, one needs 50%+ in a riding to get elected. When there were 3 parties competing for the vote, one could get elected for less than 50% of the vote. This often was 40% - 42% nationally to get a majority government. If there are now three parties competing for the left vote, it should translate into a slightly lower (i.e. less than 40%) national vote for the CPC to get a majority government. It is difficult to say for sure at this point because each riding is decided locally, but I think the big story could be that the CPC needs slightly less than 40% for a majority government. How much less? I do not know...

A friend of mine just made a great point:

Dion losing a lot of ground in Quadra, but not losing the seat is best case scenario.

The Liberals support continues to drop AND Dion stays on as leader.

If Dion lost Quadra, he would have been a goner.

A woman who has never held a seat and has no experience whatsoever was not going to become leader - she had no chance of to and she knew that. Her being declared first was orchestrated by the LPC to guard against such criticism.

I think you folks are being a little hard on CTV for not calling the MDCR race with only a 1500 vote lead and 7 polls left. You will recall that there are some polls in the riding (mostly the ones where the aforementioned TV raffles allegedly happened) that were producing voter turnout of 500 out of 400 eligible voters.

I wouldn't call the race either until those polls have reported.

Blogging Tories and NNW have the numbers. Less than 25% turnout. For Rae, getting 59% of some 20,000 votes cast is not a lot of votes. Only about 26,000-27,000 votes between Rae and MHF.
Out of 179,389 registered voters, that isn't very good. Will the media say each of them got around 13,000 votes or will they send a message of 59%.
What does the loss in Sask do to Goodale, isn't he the one who wanted Beatty to run. And, lets have fun with figures, over 70% of those in Toronto did not vote liberal. Not much of a base for Dion.
Every conservative blog should lead off with the results of the 2006 election for these ridings, not %ages but actual votes, followed by todays results. Then they should ask, What happened to the liberal base, why didn't they vote. Will they also abstain in a general election? If the media can spin, so can we.

Brent Weston:

Please see my post immediately prior to yours. In a multi-party field strategic voting is more common - in this case the strategy will be to not elect the CP.

A further point - two parties in a riding getting 15% of the vote will have a much tougher time running a campaign and raising funds, volunteers and their profile than one getting 30%.

Bob Fife of CT....Vee just explained the close race in Quadra as being the result of low voter turnout. At the time of the report it was 1% lower than the two TO ridings and not all the polls had reported yet.
Much earlier in the evening they had a free election ad for Bob Rae thinly disguised as a newscast. They did mention the conservative candidate and had a very brief shot of him while talking about Boob Rae, so I guess that gives it 'balance'.

More than I had hoped for, to be honest. I thought the CPC would get SK but never thought they'd be this close in BC. That's impressive. Of course it's not as impressive as the fiction of moving up 20 points from the last election (where the heck did THAT come from?) but it's still impressive!

Vancouver-Quadra, 2006:
Candidate (Affiliation) # of votes %

Stephen Owen (L) 28,285 48.84%
Stephen Rogers (C) 16,844 29.09%
David Askew (D) 9,321 16.1%
Ben West (G) 2,979 5.14%
Betty Krawczyk (I) 263 0.5%
Marc Boyer (Pot Smokers) 158 0.28%
Donovan Young (Commies) 41 0.09%

What does the loss in Sask do to Goodale, isn't he the one who wanted Beatty to run.

Posted by: MaryT at March 18, 2008 12:11 AM

Mary:

It's not so much that the hedgehog wanted Beatty to run. He just didn't want Orchard to win. Ralph likes being the top banana from Saskatchewan for the Liberals. If Orchard had won a seat he'd have given Ralph a run for his money.

CTV and CITY TV's ecstatic joy at Rae's win - and Findlay's..was disgusting. They are supposed to be reporting the news; their bias was so unconscious, so open..I had to 'mute' the sound.

Rae is being viewed as The Saviour, The White Knight to rescue the Liberal Party. The newsstaff were ecstatic about his 'years of experience', his long record...blah blah.

And don't underestimate the new Liberal strategy, of dealing with the ineptness of Dion by hiding him within TEAM LIBERAL. It's a brilliant tactic; you can't turf your incompetent leader, so, you hide him by having others swarm around him and talk over him. So, it will be Rae, Ignatieff, Findlay, Goodale..Team LIBERAL!! Verus that One-Man-Dictator called Harper.

They are already using those images - and they'll use them more and more over the weeks.

The Liberals took two of the safest seats in Canada. Both had been held by Liberals for a generation: Toronto Centre and Willowdale.
But note, the Cons. are creeping up in Willowdale.

In Vancouver, a previous Liberal stronghold, the Liberals won with a close percentage ratio, about 37% to 32%

The interesting thing, as noted by many here, is the rise of the Greens. Why? A protest vote? After all, they can't form a national govt, but by-elections aren't about forming a govt because the govt is already existent. By elections instead are about local, personal choices.

By the way, ted, Mark Warner wasn't 'yanked' by Harper. He was removed by the local EDA and the Conservative Election Team - neither of which Harper has any control over. Don't let facts bother your prejudices, ted. And Mark Warner wasn't a 'winner'.

I'm noting a few things. The Liberals won only in their safe seats in Toronto - a city isolated within govt funded jobs and multiculturalism. Outside of this Walled City, they are in trouble. They lost Sask, and squeaked by in Vancouver.

The Greens and the NDP - very strange. Again, by-elections aren't about govts but about personal, local comments.

Harper needs to make the CPC presence, and everything he's been doing for the cities, more visible. The MSM won't report what the govt does; they MSM are Liberal mouthpieces. Somehow, Harper has to get the information out..

Gord:

I concede your analysis is valid for the big 3 urban areas. However, there are other ridings where the NDP does well. I believe that in some of these (SK, MB) the CPC comes 2nd and Liberal corruption is a bigger issue than left/right issues. A corresponding fall in NDP share could change things to the advantage of the CPC. Even if this turns out to be correct, it may be offset in the big 3 for the reasons you point out.

It is too early to tell either way. One thing is clear though. If the left is voting strategically, one would think the polls would point to surging Liberal support nationally. The polls correctly point out the Canadians may now support a majority CPC (far from certain) but it is clear that they also want at least a minority CPC government over a Liberal government. This strategic left vote does not show itself in polling.

what this tell us 1) the Liberals are slipping in Vancouver but not T.O. 2) the CPC has not made any in-roads into T.O.,despite the Liberals floundering, sorry no majority anytime soone 3) the Green Party sure look great in byelections, wonder how they will hold up in a general election. 4) the NDP lost alot in Toronto Centre. 5) 25% turnout across the board, gotta love byelections!

In the end, no big surprises.

Bye-elections as fore-casting tools are very thin-gruel for those of us starving for political data upon which to make insights - but it's all we have for now, so thus i am supping...

Brian re: The lack of a surge nationally for the liberals masks the reality that in their core areas of support that support is strong - stronger in some cases than in the last general if some of the polling is to be believed, while they are weakening in areas where they are marginal players - rural QUE and Ont for example.

Oftentimes strategic voting doesn't reveal itself until the day of the vote - i.e. the voters say they are ND or GP when the pollster's are calling yet they mark the "X" for the LP. A good recent example of this was the election in AB where many who would otherwise have voted WRP that voted PC because they feared that the LP might win.

Last election Ralph Goodale won with 20666 votes to Brad Farquhar's 11990 votes. Will good people of Wascana continue to vote for him? Should the Conservatives target this riding in the next election?

Gord:

My last comment for the evening as it is late here on the East Coast. I did not mean to argue my point too strongly - it simply seems to me to be indeterminate at this point. So my main point is that I, for one, am unconvinced regarding your thesis at this point even though my own alternative is only loosely held. :)

Have a nice evening.

Look for the return of David Orchard to claim his place as Liberal candidate in northern Sask. once a federal election is called...

Lovely warm moment at the Rae headquarters,when Bill Graham kissed Scott Brison!The arrogance of the Lib.spin dr.s tonite was just sickening.

Dion losing a lot of ground in Quadra, but not losing the seat is best case scenario. The Liberals support continues to drop AND Dion stays on as leader. If Dion lost Quadra, he would have been a goner.
Posted by: biff

Good point. There may not be an easy mechanism for removing of Dion but desperate times could have resulted in desperate measures.

Harper would have lost the gift that just keeps on giving and giving and giving.

Lloyd Robertson mentioned briefly that CTV's latest national poll had the Tories up by 11 %. But he left it at that, and then went to the poll that showed the Cadman & NAFTA-gate influenced about 30 % of voters.

Okay, here's the link to the poll, showing us ahead of the Libs and Dippers: 38/27/14

Mr. Tulk,

I've had to point this out several times to many people and it's only a minor, but critical, point to make: it is NOT the suburbs of Vancouver we need to worry about. The suburbs were very CPC in 2006. The suburbs have traditionally been very conservative. This is the same point I railed against when pundits were claiming that the Conservatives were 'shut out of the biggest three cities in Canada'.

If you're looking at Vancouver proper, it is about the eighth largest city in Canada. If people want to include the 'Lower Mainland' in their calculations when determining Vancouver's population size, they must take into account how that ENTIRE population voted.

Since the margin of victory in Vancouver-Quadra is greatly diminished from the last result, it can only mean the Cadman strategy has backfired.

Any bets now that Question Period will have fewer and fewer Cadman .... um, questions now that the by-election is done?

It's a totally no-win situation to persist now.

If the Libs bring it up, the counter would be the smaller margin of victory.

If they drop the line of questioning, it's going to be pretty obvious their strategy was to find a Vancouver issue in an attempt to discredit Harper.

The voters have spoken and the message I'm hearing is they don't believe the Liberal line of attack on the Cadman issue.

Margin of victory in Quadra is 151 votes (0.6%) with 237 of 237 polls reporting.

Stay tuned folks - there may be a recount.

Okay, so the results are in for Vancouver-Quadra and something doesn't smell quite right to me. With 235 of 237 polls reporting, Meredith was losing by 682 votes. With a voter turnout (according to Elections Canada) of 28,165, that works out to, on average, 118.8 voters per polling station. How the heck did she narrow the gap by 531 votes in the last two stations' reported numbers?

Admittedly there may have been an error in Elections Canada's earlier reports but this makes me wonder what other errors there might have been. I smell a recount...

Elections Canada:

All polls reporting

Conservative Deborah Meredith 10,004 35.5%
Liberal Joyce Murray 10,155 36.1%

Recount time!

What a fantastic result for the Conservatives even if they don't win the seat.

I had the same question - so far the best explanation I can think of is absentee ballots.

Excellent results for Stephen Harper, near disastrous results for Dion...the Liberals lose one seat, almost lose another, and now Dion has two rivals nipping at his heels!

Meridith just conceded, so I guess no recount

You have to be fast on this site; I just checked the elections Canada result for Vancouver Quadra, noticed the margin the Lieberals were ahead was only 151 votes and checked here. In the time it took me to pour myself a glass of wine and walk back to the computer, 3 people had commented on just this topic.

Given the closeness of the votes, I think that a recount is called for. I'd love to see the Lieberals lose by a few votes here.

Incidentally, the bias of CTV just became glaringly obvious with a comment just now on the CTV news that the poor showing in Vancouver Quadra was due to low voter turnout. 33.9% according to the elections Canada website in contrast to 27.9% in Toronto Center and 24.4% in Willowdale. Perhaps to an innumerate journalist 27.9 > 33.9, but I wish I'd thought of clicking on the VCR to record this moment of clear lieberal bias.

Just a quick time-snapshot here -

Results (235/237)

Rebecca COAD (NDP) 4,008 (14.8%)
Psamuel FRANK (CAP) 40 (0.1%)
Dan GRICE (GRN) 3,736 (13.8%)
Deborah MEREDITH (CPC) 9,213 (34.1%)
***Joyce MURRAY (LIB) 9,895 (36.7%)***
John TURNER (RHN) 106 (0.4%)

TOTAL 26,998 of 83,121 (32.5%)

Results (237/237)

Rebecca COAD (NDP) 4,064 (14.4%)
Psamuel FRANK (CAP) 40 (0.1%)
Dan GRICE (GRN) 3,792 (13.5%)
Deborah MEREDITH (CPC) 10,004 (35.5%)
***Joyce MURRAY (LIB) 10,155 (36.1%)***
John TURNER (RHN) 110 (0.4%)

TOTAL 28,165 of 83,121 (33.9%)

The last two polls had 1,167 votes together, of which Meredith picked up 791 votes... it's not unbelievable at all. There are easily areas in Quadra where that might happen.

Whether Meredith concedes or requests a recount, the result is great news for Tories either way.

Those last two polls were almost certainly the advance polls- which generally give the conservatives a big edge, and have a huge number of voters. Mystery solved.

'Dion on CTV: blames Beatty's loss on "it's a large riding, lots of remote polls that are hard to get to." '

Isn't that the riding that had some polls with 100% (yeah, right)turnout in Jan/06?
in Canada...
in the winter...
I'm not making this up...

Guess the "remote polls" were the reason for the Liberal defeat!!! How remote can we go for a feeble excuse?

The Liberals gained an old Dipper and a mouthy adoring Dion ass licker from the brain free, brand name voters of Toronto. They LOST a seat and came close to losing another. A recount would make sense in Quadra.

My God, the Toronto seats are so safe for the Libranos, why even a former NDP Premier with the reputation of being the worst Premier in our nation's history could jump over to the Libranos and easily win ...

Folks, check out Pundit's Guide for all the details — great site.

Here's the details for Quadra:

http://www.punditsguide.ca/riding_e.php?riding=1248

I can't imagine that the Liberals would be too thrilled by last night's results. They would, of course, have been devastated by a loss by either Rae or Hall-Fin. These are their two "star" candidates in Liberal strongholds. I think that the results in Quadra and Sask. are more indicative of the risk they would face in a general election. I am guessing that they will be very careful before calling a general election -- unless the plan is to get rid of Dion. I should have thought some might be lamenting the Quadra win, since a loss in two by-elections might have done it with respect to giving Dion the boot. So it looks like Dion might be safe for now by virtue of 151 votes. That's what you call hanging by a thread.

With a margin of victory of less than 1% of the total votes cast, that should be an automatic recount. The results won't likely change, but it is better to be sure.

"It [Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River] has been held by all three parties in the past 10 years, and the Liberals won by just 67 votes in 2006."

Many here claimed that Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River was stolen by corruption and ballot box stuffing in the last election. If you believe that, and given the historical swings of this riding and the "landslide" win for Iggy-supporting Merasty in the last election, how can this possibly be considered a "disaster" for Dion except by the most blindly partisan?

Zimbobrae was just awful tonight. He spewed on about the neo conservatives, slinging mud at them all over the place, yet couldn't shut up (had to be cut off by CTV interviewer) about how "negative" the other parties were. Poor bobbie, were your feelings hurt? If this is the new de facto leader of the Grits, they are in big trouble - he sounded like an angry white man.

It was great fun to watch Scott Reid totally lose it, with his only solace being the NDP did even worse than Grits. Tim Power has got to let Reid and Lavigne (NDP) go at in the future. He interjected in their brawl, when he should have just smiled and kept his mouth shut; and, allowed Reid to make idiotic statement about Harper going to NYC and telling them not to invest in Ont. Aside form that Powers did a great job - just let the two lefties fight it out.

NDP should be very concerned right now; they are being pulled from two directions from Red Green faction. Reid all but admitted Greens and Libs stragtegically linked. Wait out for more of this. How's that for a theory, eh ET?

Layton has to get off his a** and paint the Grits, not as fellow "progressives," (which works for me just fine, though), but as old school, corrupt politicians in the pockets of Power Corp.

Forgot the link for that quotation.

"how can this possibly be considered a "disaster" for Dion" I think the "disaster" for Dion is the near loss in Quadra. Dion has lost or "nearly lost" two previously Liberal ridings. The "wins" in this case were total yawners -- Rae and Hall-Findly are BIG Liberal names by virtue of previously running for the leadership and they were running in the SAFEST of Liberal strongholds. I don't think last night can be considered a solid victory for the Libs -- though it was also not an abject failure, given that they were able to hold on to three of the four previously Liberal seats.

It hardly matters what is said in public about these liberal results in the by-elections. My bet is that more knives got unsheathed than sheathed in the ol' liberal back room.

OMG:

ANOTHER Susan in the MSM, Lunn, this time.

On the CBC radio news @ noon, NO MENTION of the 151 vote-difference in Quadra, just general allusions to the Librano$' winning by a narrower margin than they had expected.

"Narrower margin"????? 151 votes is neglibible!!! The report should have said that the numbers are devastating to the Librano$ and that a recount is a distinct possibility.

As usual with the Mother Corpse, when it comes to their Party of choice: Let's pretend.

"ET -I'm going to be honest - I think the Conservatives have done a very poor job at informing the public about the vast amount of work that this govt under Harper has accomplished."

Well, I posted several days ago that in order to get their message out, they will have to start a CPC favourable media outlet to do so. Get on it!

JT:

They already have the Post and the Sun Media chain - the largest media conglomerate in the country.

Re: "they will have to start a CPC favourable media outlet to do so." In particular the CPC need TV coverage. Most people simply do not follow the issues very closely and most people vote with their guts. That means it is important to present politcians in a positive light. This should not be that hard for CPC given that they have done so many positive things, but a hostile media poses a challenge. I think CPC should focus it's media ops on motherhood stuff -- and create opportunities to reinforce things that they have done -- e.g. have a photo op in a context where they visit say one of the local women's groups that recently would have benefited in change to status of women funding. I think they need positive images more than analysis to capture more of the voting public. I believe that they do have a strategy to favor TV appearances in local communities (and fewer with the hostile national media.) -- I hope this is happening in the regions. They do need something to gain more profile for the many things they do right.

The Lieberals have no money to fight a federal election. Die-on has a $850,00 leadership debt yet to pay. The Cons can run this goverment as a majority as Die-on has no backbone and no conviction to stand up for what he believes in.

I do hope that the Cons make the Barley motion on the Canadian wheat Board a confidence motion. The citizens of Toronto and Quaybec are going to ask, "why are are we having an election on barley? What is the Canadian Wheat Board again?"

I can just hear Die-on on this one "Doh h'youz tink it'z h'eazy toh haveh barlhey ouht ov da h'wheat boards andt everdodiehs farmerhs not sellanes to the Canajian H'wheat Boards, dis iz an ishoe dats warrentza federalis h'elections."

The problem with media coverage is that most, if not all small and/or independents follow the cbc/ctv lead. Mothercorp and Bellglobal are both unabashedly liberal.If Harper walked on water to save a baby,they would be pointing out the fact that he couldn't swim,(borrowed,but true).

Well a good example of Liberal math at work, they loose one riding and almost loose a second out of four and it is a great victory. A great victory is when you are lucky to have lost 1 and almost lost a second...

These byelections were more of Dion's Liberal party - going nowhere, abstaining, claiming victory for, at best, treading water. The results clearly demonstrate two things - Dion's leadership is going absolutely nowhere, with no chance of growing his vote; and, LPC is in deep denial about this, hoping Canadians won't notice. They're still about dissing, criticizing and riduculing PMSH/CPC, not about presenting their vision (do the have one) for the country.

Negative politics like this will, at best, solidify their core vote; but, running a campaign on negatives, on a refusal to reform from their corrupt, smearing ways, on the hope they can deny Harper a majority - make it very difficult to motivate workers and get the vote out.

The LPC website is a real laugh - misleading readers with the welcome to the "new" Liberal MPs, hoping nobody will notice they simply replaced two "old" Liberals.

This result will likely ensure continued governance by CPC, and increased irrelevance of the LPC. Maybe, just maybe, Jack Layton will come out of his coma and actually go after the Liberal base, something he's failed miserably to do so far. If he were to do that, his party, if it can grow past its granola eating, revolutionary marxist roots, could actually challenge to be the second party in the House.

If the Liberals and their MSM cheerleaders insist on construing last night's by-elections as a victory, to keep their fragile egos from fragmenting, let them.

It might be a good thing for the rest of us if the Librano$ rest on their laurels and entertain the fiction that their team won big last night.

With their heads up their ****s, they won't be in shape to run credible candidates in a country-wide election, where the stakes are a lot higher and where they'll have to face the CPC political machine, which will be prepared, in shape--and not in debt up to their yin-yang.

Love the CBC's take: "Liberals win 3 seats."

"Win"? More like they "held on to" 3 strongholds, nearly losing one of them, winning by only 104 votes in the third. In spite of the poor results for the Lieberals outside Trudeaupian Toronto, Don Newman called the results "a wash". The spin stps here.

I sure wish Stephane Dion would hand pick a few more candidates ... how many more by-elections and ridings can the man sabotage!!! Too funny ... And that was barely a victory in Quadra, it's not something he can take to the bank when it should have been a cakewalk given the history of that riding.