And the Official Start of Solar Cycle 24.
I have no idea what this means, but the pic is too cool to pass up.
More - Read The Sunspots
h/t to reader Rod.
Posted by Kate at January 6, 2008 12:51 AMit means the start of global cooling!!!
soon the MSM will be able to tout the success of us stopping global warming with our tax dollars
Posted by: cal2 at January 6, 2008 1:13 AMhttp://www.spaceandscience.net/id16.html
Changes in the Sun’s Surface to Bring Next Climate Change
January 2, 2008
Today, the Space and Science Research Center, (SSRC) in Orlando, Florida announces that it has confirmed the recent web announcement of NASA solar physicists that there are substantial changes occurring in the sun’s surface. The SSRC has further researched these changes and has concluded they will bring about the next climate change to one of a long lasting cold era.
Posted by: Friend of USA at January 6, 2008 1:14 AMA long period of cooling sucks. Here's hoping that the long period of cooling isn't a mini-ice age starting. Global warming sounds kinda nice. Global cooling is not neat.
Posted by: Pat at January 6, 2008 1:18 AMSignificant global cooling IS a much bigger worry. Thankfully it is greatly decreased in it impact than it would have been if it started a few decades ago as we have far better GM crop technology to quickly develop cool weather varieties.
Posted by: Gord Tulk at January 6, 2008 1:21 AMWe all know that if there is a cooling of the planet the MSM will ignore this fact about the sun,
they will say it is thanks to Al Gore's effort and all those nations who signed Kyoto/Bali, the cfs light bulbs, et cetera...
They have no problem now lying about what causes global warming, so they will have no problem lying about what "saved us " from global warming then...
Posted by: Friend of USA at January 6, 2008 1:30 AMread what the panel of experts say!! plus or minus 6 months , and may be big or small. wow . no sound of settled sunspottery.
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/ap-080103-new-sunspot-cycle.html
No, Gore cannot (credibly) take credit. The CO2 concentration level is still rising -- for what ever reason. Concentration level will likely fall, as it did in the past, after the Earth enters it's cooling cycle. Temperature drives conc.
But, yes. If the alarmists would have had their Kyoto plan up and running in time, they would have taken credit. The reason for the hurry, Chicken Little panic, fear-mongering.
As a Senator, Al Gore tried to pull the same stunt with the Ozone Hole Scare.
Snake Oil Salesman, Ozone Man, World Fever Man, Internet Inventor, Hand In Pocket Man --- same sh**, different pile.
Posted by: ron in kelowna at January 6, 2008 2:12 AMCool pic. I can only assume it is the original furnace that algore and the great suzuker know nothing about, now to find the thermostat would be real cool. Just think how we could drive the msm and the leftards around the bend with a few cases of Pil and a night away from working our asses off, jacking that sucker up and down. As Johnny Larue used to say OOOOOaRUe.
Posted by: bartinsky at January 6, 2008 2:16 AMThose spots mean more skip and fading of MW and SW radio signals and more crashy static and signal losses from time to time in the coming spring and summer months.= TG
Posted by: TG at January 6, 2008 2:40 AMWe should send the Goracle to the Sun to take some surface temperature measurements!
He can have all the "Anthropogenic Global Warming" he can possibly imagine.
Oh man, sunspot in my eye!
But with global cooling, doesn't that mean that all those Canadian energy stocks should be in top demand here on earth?
Posted by: Hans Rupprecht at January 6, 2008 2:45 AMSome perspective on what this means:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxZOB8jino0&feature=related
Posted by: lberia at January 6, 2008 3:56 AMSome perspective on what this means:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxZOB8jino0&feature=related
Posted by: lberia at January 6, 2008 3:56 AMSorry about the double post.
Posted by: lberia at January 6, 2008 3:57 AMjust hope we don't run out of those nasty fossil fuels as it gets cooler.
Posted by: old white guy at January 6, 2008 5:49 AMGee, what a huge surprise. The leftoid enviro-fraudsters are wrong again. And what is that sound you hear? Could it be the sound of leftard idiots tearing up their enviro-useless degrees? You know, the degree that was going to guarantee a nice cushy gov't job, keeping librano thieves updated on their little AGW scam. And now the whole scam is coming apart at the seams.
As it has been in the past, just watch how nasty these leftoid morons get when you start to put the cover on the trough. Because, my friends, there is not a more vicious beast than a leftard being led away from the trough.
Hey, leftoid jerk off artist, make that medium double-double, and a fritter to go.
Posted by: kingstonlad at January 6, 2008 7:14 AM"I have no idea what this means"
What it means is that the global government (agenda 21) cartel will have to abandon apocalyptic climate cycle hysteria fear mongering and dream up another science fraud to frighten us into submissive obedience with.
Ya know, I'd feel a whole lot better about the scientific elite and their global technocratic utopia if they were less concerned with this obsession of chasing inert gas molecules around the planet and spent the same energy curbing their brotherhood's fascination with creating weaponized virus, wheather control technology and developing lethal force technologies that control populations. What hapened to the humanitarian science that wanted to feed more people and make their lives better? Why has it been replaced with a science establishment intent on securing wealth and political power?
The AGW/Kyoto scam is another example of the science establishment walking lock step with globalist technocratic control freaks in devising ways to repress public empowerment, remove our wealth and control our life support infrastrutures and generally wage psy-ops warfare against the public with fear motivator planning.
Establishment science has gone for a roll in the hay with global autocrats...so far their scams have been publicly corrected by what few voices of integrity are left practicing pure science as opposed to politicized pseudo science...what will we do if these voices of pure science are ever silenced?...and remember a heavy attempt was made during the AGW info wars to go just that.
Posted by: WL Mackenzie Redux at January 6, 2008 8:31 AMLove it:
when it comes to a potential competing theory of "the sky is falling" AGW,
a theory which if true, would be far more damaging to Canadians, as we are already on the cusp of cold livable climate,
"perspective" is demanded from those on the left.
Posted by: biff at January 6, 2008 8:35 AMIf global cooling is taking place I take comfort in the fact that we can all go hang out at the GORACLE'S mansion, as we all know it will be warm there because he uses 10 times the average persons energy to heat and light up the place.
Posted by: dj at January 6, 2008 9:49 AMHey,didn't Al Gore invent sunspots?
Posted by: sysk at January 6, 2008 9:55 AMWhat's interesting to me is that the climate change scammers would likely have been more convincing had they focussed on global cooling as the big issue. Maybe it's because I living in Canada, but I can't take the fears re global warming seriously (especially since we haven't seem much of it yet). But global cooling -- that's scary. I'd give up my SUV to stop that one.
Posted by: LindaL at January 6, 2008 10:17 AMFortunately, the CO2 we have been pumping into the atmosphere for the past 100 years will help mitigate the cooling effect.
We may yet survive. Just keep churning out the CO2.
Do it for the children
Posted by: jlc at January 6, 2008 10:22 AMa better version, in English, the language spoken on all planets.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bov9M2gEgcE&NR=1
demonstrates that the AWG is just a big ego trip. we dont count for much.
also try this one, and figure on a galactic scale
Sol has made less than 20 orbits and moved in and out of the dense part of the arms about half that many times.
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap051023.html
and this, where global warming or cooling doesnt matter at all.
http://www.space.com/php/multimedia/imagedisplay/img_display.php?pic=h_extinctions_raup_sepkoski_02.gif&cap=A+plot+of+data+on+life+extinctions%2C+collected+by+Raup+and+Sepkoski+at+the+University+of+Chicago%2C+shows+peaks+in+the+extinction+rate+occurring+at+26-+to+30-million-year+intervals%2C+as+indicated+by+arrows.+Source%3A+Lawrence+Berkeley+National+Lab
What this means is that all world govts will immediately set up a Department of Coal-burning.
And spend huge amounts of tax dollars to encourage people to use coal-fired furnaces in order to stave off global cooling, since this SS cycle will probably not be a very strong one.
And staffed of course, by all the very same people who were just trying to bully people into believing in global warming.
Meanwhile I'm off to corner the market on coal and coal furnaces. But don't tell anybody.
Posted by: rockyt at January 6, 2008 10:35 AMI have no idea what this means, but the pic is too cool to pass up.
this comes as no surprise to anyone. since you admit as much, why not consider your posts more carefully. stick to muslim bashing and warmongering and leave climate change to the scientists.
Posted by: jeff davidson at January 6, 2008 10:37 AMhumans are a result of global warming not a cause. sorry for this Vitruvius
http://www.uprightape.net/Image_Pages/UA_Fig10-6_SchultzVitruv.html
Posted by: cal2 at January 6, 2008 10:38 AMPS
It also means FLOODS and DROUGHTS.
And Suzuki/Gore will be the first to announce that too.
And the MSM will go wild.
Posted by: rockyt at January 6, 2008 10:43 AMI take it that there is some other technology they are using besides the picture. All I see is a smallish bright spot not far removed from a very large bright spot.
I for one will wait and see. I'm not about to jump onto the "cooling" bandwagon any faster than I would have jumped onto the "warming" bandwagon if I would have jumped.
These scientific prophets of doom have a very poor record and we who read the Bible are warned that are false prophets out there.
I only hope that we as a society start to recover from the religion of science.
Posted by: Joe at January 6, 2008 10:46 AMgeez , jeff davidson came out and posted his own picture at the top of his blog.
send him some traffic.
Interestingly, both the sun and the earth reverse their polarity, but the sun does so on a much more regular schedule (about every 11 years); the earth's polarity has swapped (on the average) about once every 250,000 years, but it's been almost three times that long since the last one happened, and there are a bunch of serious problems associated with it when it does.
Posted by: SDC at January 6, 2008 10:58 AMFrik, trolling for traffic Jeff
...must be frig all to "discuss" in the leftosphere...everything is settled, the book is closed, science is god and leftbot programming is his word on earth...no arguments, no dissent...nothing to debate.
Pfffttt pathetic creature.
Posted by: WL Mackenzie Redux at January 6, 2008 11:01 AM"I have no idea what this means, but the pic is too cool to pass up."
Here's a slightly better explanation of what it means.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/15aug_backwards.htm
And note the date - the first reverse polarity sunspot to indicate that Cycle 24 was imminent appeared on 31 July 06, 18 months ago, but the scientists weren't ready to jump to any conclusions right away. (Perhaps that means they are real scientists and not Gore/Suzuki style witch-doctors.)
Posted by: Doug at January 6, 2008 11:08 AMJeffie, some of us [i]are[/i] the scientists..., not babysittings strolling High Park.
What this all means, is, get ready for a ridiculous media ride and new age angst about sunspots. The report indicates the current sunspot cycle has bottomed and is poised to begin its cyclic upward increase in spots. (Contrary to TG, above, the more sunspots the better for E-layer communications). The solar cycles have an approximate 11 year periodicity of minimum and maximum numbers of spots. 2008 was the predicted year for the bottom of the current cycle, and it appears to be holding true. The absolute number of spots in the maximums is highly variable; its not understood why that is. Low counts in maximum tend to indicate less effective E-layer radio communications, but also fewer disruptive magnetic storms. Since the Earth gets whacked with the energy of these storms, a predicted low count max will mean less energy input overall to the earth.
Posted by: Skip at January 6, 2008 11:13 AMPhooey, trashed the slur... should have read: "Jeffie (your real name is Betty, isn't it?), some of us are the scientists..., not babysitters strolling High Park."
Posted by: Skip at January 6, 2008 11:17 AMJeff is a seriously hack photographer. And an angry, small minded failure, 'out in the woods.'. His kids are probably starving, so no wonder he supports the Liberals and Dion's poverty plan.
Posted by: irwin daisy at January 6, 2008 11:21 AM...Global Cooling now?
I just knew I shouldn't have changed my lightbulbs...
Posted by: tomax7 at January 6, 2008 11:27 AMJudging from Jeff the troll's 'blog' (if you want to call idiot mental secretions that), he's got a pathological hate-on for Kate and SDA. Most of which is libel.
Posted by: irwin daisy at January 6, 2008 11:28 AMJust noting that this new sunspot does not signal the real start of Cycle 24.
For a period of about six months, we will have both Cycle 23 sunspots and Cycle 24 sunspots. When the cycle 24 spots become the majority, that will be the official start of the next cycle.
This solar cycle (23) is the longest one since 1810 and there is a strong correlation between how long the cycles are and the general cold or warmth of the planet.
This solar cycle (which is 11 years 8 months and counting) signals that we will start cooling off now (and there was alot of cooling from the start of 2007 to the end - about 0.5C globally.)
I just want to add my little two cents.
1) The beginning of Cycl 24 doesnt mean global cooling. If the theory of sunspot cycle strength and length is correct the continued absence of a restarted cycle would contribute more to global cooling.
2) There has been a debate in the the solar community about how to predict solar cycles. The predictions had ranged from the highs of cycle 21 and 23 to a moderate to low cycle for cycle 24. This is a test of that predictive power. Yes real science produces models with real predictive power (my quibble with AGW is that there is NO predictive power in any models produced to date)
3) The long and low predictions seem to be holding up, we will see. (long low cycles mean lower sunspot activity, the theory being that times of high and low temp are associated with high short and long low sun spot cycles respectively.) This will then provide a test of some of the solar models, although I dont know if they have the mechanism of temperature transfer totally nailed yet.
Anyway, while we have people running around screaming like loons saying we are burning up, we do have real scienctists conducting real science in areas related. THE problem in climate science is there are tribes, and the tribes dont build on each others papaers, they dont review them, they dont quote them, even when they are correct. Climate Science isnt a cloud chamber it is an echo chameber.
The cause of that, the politiciazation of science caused by mr gore, Dr Hansen and Dr Suzuki. The use of political rhetoric to trash alternative theories and research.....one day we may all relaize just what a travesty this was, either because Gore and co. were correct but their bull in a china shop delayed the necessary consensus to produce effective consensus or that they were horribly wrong and billions of dollars were wasted enriching yet another crazy quasi religous elite.
Posted by: Stephen at January 6, 2008 11:46 AMOnly sociopaths like Lefty Jeffy would get angry at the fact that just maybe there is good news and the world isn't coming to an end.
They react with hysterical hissy fits at the slightest possibility that things are going to be just fine.
Truth always prevails eventually and the demented Lefty Jeffys of the world can't stand it.
All I know, is that it is easier to cool down than it is to heat up.
Posted by: GaryinWpg at January 6, 2008 12:19 PMSunburts
No problem, tax us,we can fix those sunburts.
Skip, if you are a scientist, and I accept that you are. You seem to lack the ability to communicate the results of your expertise clearly.
That*s a compliment. Proves you must me genuine.
You expressed a relationship between sun spot activity and the E layer, but you failed to mention whether it makes the E layer an effective mirror for radio signals causing over earth curvature bounce referred to as * skip*.
You could have informed us about the effect the 11 year cycle has on the intensity of the Northern lights.
You could have enlightened us as to just how crackling ion activity creates crashy radio reception.
Scientists, always missing the opportunity to answer practical questions. = TG
Posted by: TG at January 6, 2008 2:01 PMPlease, before responding to a troll, consider;
Every day, sda has hundreds, if not thousands, of new visitors. Some of them add to an already very high knowledge base. These daily new-comers may have a lifetime's worth of first hand knowledge that we all can take to the bank. The 'Fire Hose Of Knowledge' that is out there but has been silenced in the past by the MSM's dumbing-down ways.
It is bad enough that these invaluable newcomers have to skip through a nut-case comment, but what is worse, they then have to also skip through a few troll smack-downs. We do not want to loose any valuable commenters.
I think Kate will eliminate the really stupid troll comments on her own. Others she may leave as self defeating eveidence against the loons.
Just think. Kate does not have the time to follow every thread, minute by minute. It is bad enough that she has to eliminate the Nutties, but it makes it difficult if subsequent Troll smack-downs are tied into the thread.
Just my take --- my 2cents. Continue with ole Sol.
Posted by: ron in kelowna at January 6, 2008 2:14 PMRon, Skip is a big boy and it would be nice if he would elaborate on the three questions,
ionized E-layer, Northern lights, crashy radio reception.
Heated emotions and name calling are not much fun though. = TG
Posted by: TG at January 6, 2008 2:50 PMSome seem to be wondering what Gore's next *cause* will be when the next expected sun cycle causes AGW to crash and burn and a cooling of the global climate begins.
I thought it would be obvious, at least to all the Canadians.
He will have to demand that the money that has been budgeted to build a wall along the US-Mexican border, to control illegal immigration, will have to be diverted.
The money will be used to build a wall along the entire US-Canadian border. When the ice sheet is two miles thick over Canada this wall will prevent it from crossing southward into the States.
Don't snicker. Makes as much sense as all his other games.
Posted by: Yoop at January 6, 2008 6:07 PMAstroprof has a pretty good writeup of this:
http://astroprofspage.com/archives/1408
Posted by: Ed Minchau at January 6, 2008 7:00 PMTG, the internet and numerous universities are at your beck and call from which to launch your path to enlightenment - Kate's blog is not the place. Yes there is a correlation between sunspots, solar flares, Northern lights, static on your radio and many other things.
Simplistically, I know from practical experience that conversation on HF frequencies is much more readily facilitated during solar maxima, than at minima. I also know where to point my antenna at the E-layer to do this, and I have invested heavily in the equipment to do so. I spent a lifetime learning how this, and many other things work, and I learned also that we know only a fraction of the answers, and maybe even fewer of the questions. Start your own journey, its so much more rewarding than following in the footsteps of others.
Ron, guilty as charged. The vacuousness of the Jeffies is galling, and hard to ignore. For those diversions, I apologize.
Posted by: Skip at January 6, 2008 8:00 PMSkip - OT, but do you only work in the low MHz, or have you configured for meteor scatter as well?
Posted by: Tenebris at January 6, 2008 8:45 PMMagnetic Reversal !. I have noted that the earth has undergone the same phenomenon
Anyone care to share a theory?
Thanks Skip, but I am somewhat lazy and fun loving. Devoting one*s life to any one thing is honourable, however until something comes to me, learning a little guitar seems fitting for now.
I only asked for the skinny on three questions. Oh well. = TG
Posted by: TG at January 7, 2008 12:46 AMSunspot cycles restart every 11 years or so, there is nothing special about this. It has very little to do with global warming or cooling. Weather forecasts based on sunspots have about the same accuracy as horoscopes.
In any event, if this means cooling, bring it on now, it's 10 degrees here, all the snow is melting and I have to work like a dog to keep my basement from flooding.
Posted by: GreenNeck at January 7, 2008 8:31 AMgeez. greenneck apparently has never read a Damned thing about how the solar cycles correspond to temperatures on the Earth.
Just the way the socialists love 'em! lacking in education.
Posted by: otter at January 7, 2008 11:37 AMHow is it possible that the largest generator of energy in our solar system has anything to do with fluctuations in the earth's temperatures?
Apparently the political left says it ain't so so it must be true!
Thanks Greeneck for clearing that up.
"geez. greenneck apparently has never read a Damned thing about how the solar cycles correspond to temperatures on the Earth."
On the contrary, I read a lot about it. For example it is well known that the Little Ice Age in the 1600s corresponded to an epoch when very few if any sunspots were observed (the so-called Maunder minimum).
What I referred to as junk science is the ability to predict the onset of cold based on a single cycle. If that were true the 1950s would have been the warmest, followed by the 60s; it actually was cooler then.
Posted by: GreenNeck at January 7, 2008 12:26 PM'What I referred to as junk science is the ability to predict the onset of cold based on a single cycle.'
The sun is not the only thing involved here- but it sure as Hell is one of the major factors. Did you look at the ocean cycles for the same periods that you mentioned? Also, how do you get just 'one' cycle out of this, haven't they been mapping out the cycles going back quite some time?
Posted by: otter at January 7, 2008 2:26 PMYou expressed a relationship between sun spot activity and the E layer, but you failed to mention whether it makes the E layer an effective mirror for radio signals causing over earth curvature bounce referred to as * skip*.
You could have informed us about the effect the 11 year cycle has on the intensity of the Northern lights.
You could have enlightened us as to just how crackling ion activity creates crashy radio reception.
Scientists, always missing the opportunity to answer practical questions. = TG
The problem, TG, practical questions often do not have simple answers, and in order to answer some practical questions in a blog space like this, too much has to be left out, leaving the answer less than properly useful, or, even, true.
Your 3 questions can fill 3 textbooks with the answers. That is why I frequently exhort readers to use the universe of information available to learn the answers to their questions... Your being lazy hardly justifies the energy I might expend to answer your question, but, since you persist, here is a short answer that only hints at the complexity and in its brevity, is wholly incomplete:
There is a positive correlation between the magnitude of the total solar irradiation and flux, the degree of ionization of the atmosphere, and the mean number of sunspots on the sun. i.e. the greater the number of sunspots, the greater the atmosphere ionizes. Atmospheric ionization is necessary for skip wave HF communication beyond the antenna ground wave. The impact of the quantum of ionization is frequency dependent, resulting, in part, in some of the phenomena you have mentioned. Static crashes and northern lights are a result of the activity of sunspots, not on the absolute number, but the impact is positively correlated with the number.
Or, if you were a Liberal, "The U.N. has released a series of monographs in which a renown select panel has advised that the fact that high numbers of sunspots has a 92% probability that static crashes will occur, interfering with communication systems worldwide, indicates that since this has only been known since the advent of radio, it therefore must be anthropogenic in nature."
Tenebris:
Posted by: Skip at January 7, 2008 5:39 PMUrrgg! the post editor was interpreting the "less than symbol '
Tenebris: less than 50mHz mostly - The closest I get to oddball propagation is VHF & UHF ducting, mostly. Meteor scatter is a hoot when you can pull it off but I'm not patient (or organized) enough for it. Same for moonbounce.
Posted by: Skip at January 7, 2008 5:44 PMThanks, skip.
And you hit on the problem; Too many citizens listen to Gore-like dumbed-down explainations because they are easier to understand than the real, scientific explaination --- no matter if it is fiction.
The same reason there are lots of science fiction paper backs in book stores. The truth will triumph in the end ---- but in the meantime, a lot of people get hurt and a lot of unneccessary taxes may be paid.
Posted by: ron in kelowna at January 7, 2008 5:51 PMUnited Nations experts on radio noise 'crashes' -- "indicates that since this has only been known since the advent of radio, it therefore must be anthropogenic in nature." Skip
Good one. And that is about the size of it, allright.
UN; the Ozone Hole is the biggest it has ever been.
Tim Ball; Oh, how long have you guys been keeping records ?
UN; About 50 years.
Tim Ball; And how long has the Earth and it's Ozone been around ? -- about 4,000,000,000 years.
Posted by: ron in kelowna at January 7, 2008 6:01 PM
Skip,
Thanks for the effort. Saves me from re- inventing the wheel. No use the both us going to university for years.
Lack of education means lower wages and more innovation. You mentioned spending a fortune on ham radio equipment. Would that include a 1000W linear amp? The ham appliance that blanks out neighbouring TV and radio reception? That*s a crude ham device.
I wanted to work lower 10 meters on QRP of about 50 watts from an auto battery.
Enjoyed DX Qsos for a few years from a cabin in the bush surrounded by 200 foot pines using my *Poor Boy*s* periodic array. Also used a rhombic later, but it sure took a load of copper braided to do so.
Keeping SWR close to 1:1.5 ensured no RF interference to the locals and so only contacts in New Zealand, Hawaii and Thompson Manitoba were any the wiser. [regular contacts].
Guess I should have gone to school for a ham license but heck, no one seemed to know the difference. I like CW at about 22wpm but admit to using the efficiency of speech processed LSB mostly. More fun. = TG
Who said anything about an amp? I live on a 50x100 foot lot - its barefoot for me. Amps have their place, and may be necessary if you want skip dependent consistency of comms. The swamping of neighbours is more about poor domestic devices and inappropriate antennae and feed lines than the amp. Mind you, to use one responsibly means more that pumping 1000w into 20 meters into an antenna 20 feet off the ground in a Florida trailer park, in order to talk to your buddy in Louisiana...
The fortune has to do with my fully supporting equipment-wise the local Red Cross emergency response group.
Morse is fun, I don't do enough of it to keep my speed up.
I'm not sure, with a ham ticket, you profess to be unclear about E-layer ionization... You've most certainly "lived" on the terminator if you've done much QRP on HF.
Skip,
Fun to exchange chatter with you.
Of course Hams and good equipment, including 1000 watt linears, are always potential life savers during floods and emergencies of any sort. = 73 e e = TG
Posted by: TG at January 8, 2008 12:11 PMHey what planet has a purple sun? ITS WHERE THE PURPLE MARTINS COME FROM YOU DIM-BULBS SQUAWK SQUAWK
Posted by: starbird at January 8, 2008 11:12 PM