Of course the Deniers will say that you missed such and such and such- and when Those prove to be doing better than they claimed, they will move on to such and such and such... and the FACT that some of these things happened before and the nation survived / overcame / turned them around, by doing what it has always done best, will be lost upon them.

No GOOD will be declared until the day a dhimmicrat is sworn into the WH. Then, Suddenly! All shall be roses. There will be Less people without insurance, there will be Less coverage of the homeless, there will be.... well you get the point.

I thought "the future" was being made in Siberia.

Not dead enough.

other than that Mrs. Lincoln how was the play.

a million jobs. you couldnt create that in Canada if you got every maritimer in the nation off their duff. maybe if you hired all the unemployed first nations types.

I heard that if you are a first nations member you get $600 a month for being. can anyone confirm this.

Real question is what do these idiots think they will gain by wishing for a recession into reality? Are they stupid enough to believe that their communist utopia is right around the corner? Well surprise, IT IS, just move to Cuba or North Korea.

"The [US] economy added more than 1 million new jobs last year. It grew at an annual rate of between 3 percent and 4 percent."

Pfffttt..easy to "grow" the economy when you print no-reserve fiat money for foreigners to spend and continue fiat-issue credit based only on "confidence"....the "confidence" is actually greed...people will continue to "grow" the economy as long as credit is cheap and easy to get..you cut the issue of unsecured below rime credit and the economy stalls ( as therned the hard way in the realty markets)...but to "save" the economy from the bursting realty bubble the unsecured sub prime and sub-sub-prime institutional and investment lending continues...consumers of thie fiat credit just keep on buying up the shoddy off-shore made goods, bad investments and market cons as long as the cheap credit honey pot is full....ohhh and this can never end...this Alice in Blunderland economic growth is here to stay forever, as we all rabbit merrily away in happy land.

Get a grip!

The fact of the matter is this current mismanaged credit system is another huge "bubble" currently in meltdown in the dollar market and leveraged investment sector and it is cascading world wide....12-18 months it will hit the consumer who is poorly leveraged.

It is really, really stupid to accept the rose colored optics of pollyanna economic cheerleaders at this time. Here are some pertinent observations and probable predictions of winners and losers in this economic vortex:

http://news.efinancialcareers.sg/NEWS_ITEM/newsItemId-11105

But people are slow to learn/believe when harsh realities are the lesson. Perhaps a warning from the father of "Reaganomics" ex- US treasury chairman will start to cut through the economic BS matrix:

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article18787.htm

The very best we can say about the US economy these days is it's fragile.

Tucked into a bit of rolling glacial-outwash hills in the middle of a triangle, the points of which would be Chicago, Detroit and Toledo, one will find Hillsdale, Michigan and Hillsdale College. They are a synchronous entity, the town and the college, that one will not hear much about, but that one should really experience for a day or two, to get a feel for those things that liberals, progressives and Democrats just wish would go away. Liberal professor's heads explode at the mention of Hillsdale College. The town itself contains a bit of 'Americana' that hasn't been lost.

There is a certain segment of the population, named ________ (fill in the blank: politicians, MSM, liberals, Democrats, university professors, etc.), who have a highly evolved vested interest in bad news. If it doesn't exist, then they will invent it. They will do, say or write whatever is deemed necessary to feed and fulfill that particular vested self-interest. Their interest may not be in the best interest of the majority, but they will continue to succeed until that time when the majority says "ENOUGH".

I have a feeling that we are slowly approaching a majority "shout". One can hope, but I'm just preaching to the choir here, anyway... ;-)

"Get a grip!"

Well Mr. Redux, that is a good idea. "All" countries (I know of no exception) in the world operate on a "fiat" currency system and that "All" countries have been systematically destroying confidence in their "currencies" for years and years. There has never been a paper currency in the history of time that has not been inflated to nothing eventually. The US is not any less responsible than the Brits, Japanese or Europeans in this matter. Who will lose? Those that invest in mortgages and other debt instruments. those on fixed incomes and of course those without capital or the ability to borrow.

So either borrow lots of money, buy hard assets and pay it back with "cheaper" currency or do what the saavy Chinese, Singaporeans and other countries with sovereign wealth funds do........ take their existing US dollars and buy US assets, European assets, Canadian assets, African assets etc. Exchange paper for tangibles.

Do not think for a moment that these injections of capital haven't generated real growth and economic activity. It has.

This constant recession story for the last few years is a classic example of the media being dominated by Democrats led by the self-loathing, doom and glummers... Lou Dobbs, Paul Krugman and other grim reapers.

But the facts are, that despite $100 oil and a subprime crisis there has been a $9.5 trillion increase in world stock market capitalization during the first 11 months of 2007. The global momemtum is partly thanks to the Bush tax cuts which saved the world from a liquidity nose dive after the dot com era that Clinton artificially benefited from … oh … and the tax cuts actually brought in exponentially higher tax revenues … another thing the liberal media won’t tell you.

The media focuses on negatives because they think that sells. But there are literally 2 sides to a balance sheet and the asset side has been going through the roof in this globally connected economy. We ain’t seen nothing yet as India and China continue to be the low cost back office for the West. Even in the case of housing in the USA, the increased value in your house would still very attractive over 2004. Plus 10 million houses got built during this so-called horrible subprime era ... again, nobody talks about the housing assets, only the mortgages.

The biggest joke is that the European investment Bankers are guilty of being stuffees for much of that subprime stuff … it looks good on them.

At 9.5 trillion in 11 months, that is almost as much stock market value as was added in the global bull market, dot.com years of 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 COMBINED.

The global economy and the global stock markets are alive and well and for those that want to believe Lou Dobbs annual prediction for the last 10 years that America is going down the tubes, then go for Lou’s Democratic lies. An investor's biggest risk is that the Hildebeast will get elected and raise corporate tax in the USA which is already too high relative to even Europe.

Those here that think this a battle between the Democrats and the Republicans are the ones who have truly been duped. They are just different side of the same coin. They have both been working for years to increase the size of government. The only difference is their spending priorities. The true fight is between more freedom and less freedom. As long the supporters of both sides support candidates that want more and more government spending it is the American tax payers who are the losers. If you are not free to spend your own money as you wish how free are you.

In response to the orriginal post

The [US] economy added more than 1 million new jobs last year. It grew at an annual rate of between 3 percent and 4 percent. Share prices rose by over 5 percent, with tech shares up by double digits, these gains being recorded in weeks in which the financial markets are said to be in turmoil.

The US dollar lost 15% against the Euro this year the stock market increase is just a reflection of the valuation of companies in a deflated currency.

Exports soared, bringing down the long-standing trade deficit. In November, supposedly traumatized consumers splurged, increasing spending by the largest amount in 3½ years. Final figures for Christmas are not yet in, but my guess is that early pessimistic estimates will prove wrong.

The increased exports are the result of the devalued currency as well.
The increased spending is mostly on non discretionary items like food and energy and may infact be a reflection of higher prices in these areas rather than an actual increase in spending.

What about their mounting debt? China could pull the plug on the US anytime they want, and they will, when they want.

All those who for years now have been saying that the US economy is going to tank can take solace in the fact that some day it will. Then they can all say "I told you so". In the meantime they will just have to walk around with that scowl on their collective face.

Kate: Thanks for the Hillsdale College Imprimis archive end of 2002 - the best of the past 30 years. I was aware of the college by name but not its mission!

Geo:
"Do not think for a moment that these injections of capital haven't generated real growth and economic activity. It has."

The growth is all on paper...the tracking system to determinn "growth" tracks activity not real wealth accumulation.

As you say all fait systems devalue to nothing and the US sawbuck in nearing a brink because it is hyper inflated and too many foreigners hold the debt.

As more currency injections at this stage of "stagflation" hit the US economy it is used to expand the US trade deficit by purchasing goods from the nations who hold the most US debt as the government ipens the trade floodgate to it's creditor friends.

at the end of the second world war the US had 50% of all the industrial capacity in the world and 80% of the gold reserves. Its been downhill ever since right?

Yes cal2 - and note that the same voices that clammor that it's America's responsibility to help underdeveloped nations to advance their standard of living... when underdeveloped nations begin to advance their standard of living, those voices point and cry about America's declining economic fortunes relative to the rest of the world.

It's so absurd it really needs to be satire.

In regards to those nations which hold a large share of America's debt - China and, I believe, Saudi Arabia...?

If you believe the person on the deathbed is finished, yet you are Attached to him and supported by the same machines, are you really gonna pull the plug?

(Apologies for the badly worded analogy)

Joanne, a couple of points

-how much will the debt be worth to the Chinese when (if?) they “pull the plug” ? They’d be pulling the plug on themselves too.
-the US deficit is shrinking ahead of schedule, running at small fraction now, about 1.5% of GDP. It is in a lot better shape than most G-8 countries, many are running at 2 or 3% deficits, plus they have not funded their social programs and unlike the USA have serious demographics in decline. Japan and Russia are disappearing populations.
- The US would be in great shape if the rest of the democratic world ponyed up with its fair share of military expense. Plus if the West remilitarized, the benefit would be that we would probably see the bad guys simply go back into their caves.

Instead of always howling at the US, why don’t we ever hear rants against Germany to get its act together?

Cal2 , it’s not downhill. Instead, the rest of the world is democratizing and free markets are letting everybody participate. The USA has less than 5% of the world’s population. What would you expect? Would you prefer Moe Strong and the UN and Kyoto do the redistribution?
or
Would it be preferable to have free markets access by the world’s 6.5 billion population and let them compete?

Economists and the media have correctly predicted 48 of the last two recessions.

WLM “The growth is all on paper”

Should we go back to pelts?

“the US trade deficit”?

It’s been going on for 3 or 4 decades .. longer than Lou Dobbs’ whining .. What it means is that sellers will take US currency in exchange for goods produced at a very low cost. That is a good thing. Countries that don’t have a deficit have a problem .. like Ontario being totally dependent on the US to buy its cars .. Maybe that jig is up with our currency at par.

Currency is a store of value over the long haul. Which one appeals to you? The Euro? What country is that again?

The yen ? Japan’s population is dwindling rapidly.

The Pound? Frankly, Londonistan worries me a lot.

I think the new currency is whatever Warren Buffet owns.

Hmm.. visiting the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, they show fewer than 1 million jobs added in a non-farm workforce of 138 million. That's less than 1%, in a year where the Commerce dept. trumpted 3.5% growth? And of that 138 million, over 40 million work in gov't, health or education - i.e. not the private sector. Meanwhile, manufacturing jobs contine to decline.

And, as I write this at 10:30 EST, oil is at a record high, just over $98, gold is over $850/oz (hi ratfuc, still making money?), and the Dow is down over 100 points. Every talking head on CNBC is saying they don't expect a recession, which only reinforces my belief one is coming.

And to ratfuc and others who have disparaged my portfolio recommendations: there are two ways to invest. First, you can try to trade. I sold trader turrets to major Bay Street banks and brokers. These sophisticated phone systems let them connect to, and trade with, commodity pits, other brokers worldwide, etc, in seconds. They also have two or three Bloomberg screens up, giving them access to information and quotes much more quickly than I get home at my PC. Trying to beat these guys is like pounding your head against the wall; it only feels better when you stop.

On the other hand, you can take positions. This means evaulating fundamental and technical data, taking a position with a long-term view, and then - and this is the most important point - sitting on the position. Don't take my word for it; read "Reminscences of A Stock Operator" by Edwin Lefevre; read anything by Richard Russell. It takes a certain amount of courage to sit through corrections, but as long as the fundamentals don't change, your reason to stay in position shouldn't change either.

People here laughed at me when I recommended gold. Well, it hit a 28-year high today, and while I usually expect a reaction from milestones like $850 gold or $100 oil, the fundamentals haven't changed. China surpassed the US as the second biggest buyer of gold last year (behind India). I'm sure most of you are unaware that the Chinese gov't has allowed the creation of gold ETF's in China, which is only going to increase demand. And I read Gord Tulk's prediction that oil prices would decrease with astonishment. He said "supply will increase and demand will decrease". I'd like to know where he thinks this new oil is coming from, giving that most existing fields are in decline. And I'd like to know why he thinks demand will decline, when China and India add more new cars each year than the US and Canada combined.

Hmmm. Seven-year watch on the US going into recession.

Seven years since there has been no appreciable measurement which gives credence to the theory of global warming.

Co-incidence? I think not.

never let success get in the way of doom and gloom.

wlmr. everthing is always paper.

[quote]I read Gord Tulk's prediction that oil prices would decrease with astonishment. He said "supply will increase and demand will decrease". I'd like to know where he thinks this new oil is coming from, giving that most existing fields are in decline. And I'd like to know why he thinks demand will decline, when China and India add more new cars each year than the US and Canada combined.[/quote]

Kevinb,
Could it be that the US will finally drop reserves on the Market, and we will have the speculators jumping out windows?

[quote]If you believe the person on the deathbed is finished, yet you are Attached to him and supported by the same machines, are you really gonna pull the plug?
[/quote]

Otter! You have been following Trump ... right?

[quote]The biggest joke is that the European investment Bankers are guilty of being stuffees for much of that subprime stuff … it looks good on them.[/quote]

Nomdeblg, and they are pissed!

“nomdeblog, and they are pissed”

That’s because they are fired, as they should be. This stuff was not your average certificate of deposit in a bank with government deposit insurance on the first $60,000. So buyer beware. These IB guys make salaries of 10’s of millions and did little or no due diligence.

The main issue is: what is this costing the American taxpayer? Not much so far, it’s costing the global bankers’ shareholders .. so what? About 10 million houses got built in the USA. Capitalism works even if and some greedy, inexperienced investment bankers got fired. New financial subprime products are coming out with fixes and life goes on.

I’m sure Gord Tulk can defend himself, meanwhile:

“Oil for delivery in December 2015 is trading on the NYMEX for $88.33 per barrel. Assuming a 3% average annual inflation rate over the next 8 years, that means that oil in 2015 is trading for only $69.72 per barrel in today's dollars.

OLD WHITE GUY: "wlmr. everthing is always paper"

Yeah..sure is...just remember the same status quo cheerleaders who told you there was no end to Enron's glory and that the housing market was stable...published in the same media that tell us all is well nothing for the sheep to concern themselves with...go back to your grazing, this is just an economic bump.

The fact remains the "bubble" now encompasses the larger majority of the economy and a good poertion of the consumer economy and that bubble is being inflated with pure hot air (thin air credit).

You can belive what you want, I'm net here selling anything and in this day and age yer on yer own partner....but if you have any critical thinking capacity left, you'll unplug yourself from the tranquilizing matrix and get your wealth into tangible assets....get that worthless fiat money into tangible assets...spend it as soon as you get it on convertable wealth assets.....or don't...save the worthless depreciating paper in other depreciating inflationary "investment" vehicles....no skin off my nose.

The us economy is dead in the water.
Thats why gold is rising.
Timeline-it will be obvious to EVERYONE by the end of 08.

And theres nothing you right wing lunatics can say or do to stop it.

It's always interesting to read the opinions of the fanatical left when it concerns the US economy - they are so desperate to see America fail - sorry, it ain't going to happen anytime soon. Hey morningstar, don't you understand that GOD loves America and that HE is a Republican? Those wicked communists you hang around with have poisoned your mind.