When you don't like the bottom line...
Shortly after NASA published their source code on Sept 7, we started noticing puzzling discrepancies in the new data set. On Sep 12, 2007, I inquired about the changes to Hansen and Ruedy, observing that there was no notice of the apparent changes at their website...
Hansen said that the difference between 1998 and 1934 was “statistically insignificant”. But business accountants are familiar with situations where a lot of attention is paid to numbers that may be “statistically insignificant”. I’ll give you an example. For a large corporation, the difference between a small profit and a small loss can be “statistically insignificant”, but there is a big difference in how they are perceived by the public. In some cases, unscrupulous corporations (and you can think of a few, including the most famous recent U.S. bankruptcy) will do whatever they can in terms of deferring expenses or recognizing revenue to change a reported loss into a reported profit. Accounting changes are a red flag to analysts for brokerage companies; there may be “good” reasons but the analyst needs to be right on top of the situation and they will be VERY unimpressed if a company tries to slip a change in without reporting it.So while the difference between 1934 and 1998 may have been “statistically insignificant”. Hansen was obviously quite annoyed by the attention paid to 1934 being called the “warmest year” even in the U.S. and the change in rankings must have stuck in his craw. Was that motivation in the change from SHAP to FILNET accounting? I certainly hope not. Perhaps long before the Y2K error re-arranged things, NASA had already made long-standing plan to shift from SHAP accounting to FILNET accounting. But if this was not the case, then the timing of the change, especially with the all too “convenient” restoration of 1998 to the top of the leaderboard is certainly unfortunate.
More from Anthony Watts;
Posted by Kate at September 18, 2007 12:24 PMAn odd twist has developed in the past week regarding some data sets that surfacestations.org volunteers have been using to look at individual stations. The data has changed on NASA's GISS website with no notice whatsoever.
My first indication that something changed came from surfacestations.org volunteer Chris Dunn who wrote to me complaining that one of the sites he'd recently surveyed, Walhalla, SC had been greatly adjusted at GISS for no good reason that he could ascertain, since the site is pristine by climate monitoring standards, and has not gone through any significant changes in the past, and has been operated at the same location (by the same family) since 1916. He wondered why NASA would have to adjust the data for a "good" station. The way I view it, shouldn't good data stand on it's own? That was September 7th. He was using data from NASA GISS published on 8/28.
So he continued to look at the data, and the site. The on Sept 11th he noticed a change when he downloaded the data again. Something had changed, the data was different. Not only the adjusted data but the "raw" data too.
[...]
I don't know what to make of this, by I think perhaps this could be a breach of the Data Quality Act. At the least, it flies in the face of accepted scientific courtesy, where if you publish data sets being used by researchers worldwide, scientific courtesy would dictate that you at least place notice of such a change, otherwise there can be a domino effect for hundreds of research projects that use the data. Which would cause researchers to wonder why things don't look the same anymore and begin searching for answers. Well that is exactly what happened here. We had a citizen trying to figure out why a climate site with good data was "adjusted", and then the data changed right in the middle of him looking at it.
TrackBack URL for this entry:
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The following quote may be appropriate:
"If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the state can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the state to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the state."
Joseph Goebbels, Hitler's minister of propaganda.
Posted by: Earl the Pearl at September 18, 2007 12:43 PMBut being the scrupulous person that you are, you'll spin it anyways. I preferred the pic of the wheeled barbecue next to the data collection device. That was insipid enough for your personality cult to grapple.
Posted by: wallen at September 18, 2007 12:47 PMThat was insipid enough for your personality cult to grapple.
How often have they spun it?
Like Gore says that sealevels will go up 20 feet the ipcc says at most 22 inches. Or is that to insipid for a staunchly religious person like yourself.
While your comments are very typical of global warming trolls they are hardly science are they.
Can you imagine Bohr and Einstein talking like that you poo poo head.
Here's the real reason for global warming
I'm a self employed dog trainer
Posted by: wallen at September 18, 2007 1:25 PMThis has become about ego not science how humiliating and embarrissing it must be for him to find that what you have been touting is wrong. So change the rules so you are right.
It is sad to see a great institution like NASA marred by a weak personality such as this.
Posted by: Jeff Cosford at September 18, 2007 1:26 PMEnvironmentalists use lies, damn lies and statistics.
Posted by: philanthropist at September 18, 2007 1:29 PMVery nice, Wallen. Then perhaps you'll be interested in the views of some of the engineers and accountants who regularly comment here. I'm sure they'll have something insipid to say.
Posted by: Kate at September 18, 2007 1:29 PMKate muses: "What do you do for a living, wallen?"
He must write the little impromptu gaffes Dion blurts out.....and here we were thinking these "Dijonisms" were the product of linguistic Tourettes . :D
Posted by: WL Mackenzie Redux at September 18, 2007 1:31 PMI can see the new climate doom endorsements now:
"Self employed dog trainers validate Global warming science"
Whooooha...stop the presses at the Red Star ...we have a new "exclusive" to run on the climate hysteria file.
:D
Posted by: WL Mackenzie Redux at September 18, 2007 1:37 PMWallen,
Congrats. It takes a great effort to look so foolish.
Posted by: Warwick at September 18, 2007 1:47 PM[It's a long and detailed post and difficult to extract from, so read the whole saga.]
Yes. I tried last night.
James Hansen, of the Gore/Suzuki/Strong Kult, cooked the books. That is proven. When caught red-handed, he tries to slip in changes. Caught again.
(Wants to retore 1998 as warmest, otherwise Gore is lying ever time someone watches YouTube)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqUHM2gf5g4
But the problem is, as Kate points out, the complexity of the data collection, the analyzing, and reporting.
The Kult Krowd knows that the media will 'dumb-down' the news. Even items that are simple, let alone complex data.
Which one would make headlines;
E=Mc2 and the square root of infinity is greater than the angle of the repose when a thermometer is uncalibrated
OR
the polar bear fell in, can't swim, will drown --- you know, the one with the Coke in his hand, not the one that will eat you on a whim.
For this reason it has taken longer than usual to expose the Kyoto Hoax but it is rapidly unraveling now ---- as the Quebec voters told Dion & May & Company --- in no uncertain terms.
In the meantime, Hansem et al continue to dig themsevles a deeper and deeper hole.
Posted by: ron in kelowna at September 18, 2007 1:51 PMBureaucrats first rule of work prime direective if you will!
Cover your ass!
So NASA Bureaucrats who happen to have science degrees have decided to invoke the prime directive.
The official word is that AGW is a fact and that we need to be taxed and regulated to prevent a catastrophy. Because as we all know governments can do magic with enough taxes and regulation. Just look at ALL the examples of that!
And the final incontrovertible proof is : The Data!
Yup.....South American Backwaters are looking better all the time as alternatives to living under the governance of these kinds of idiots!
Posted by: OMMAG at September 18, 2007 1:55 PMJames Hansen has to try to secretly change the cooked data or Albert Gore is lying ever time someone watches YouTube --- which is often. In both cases.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqUHM2gf5g4
Posted by: ron in kelowna at September 18, 2007 2:04 PMThis is getting to be more like ADSCAM for climatologists! Hey, let's cook the books on temperature data so we can get more governemnt money. If someone finds us out, we'll just cook the books some more. Sound familiar - like Enron? What a backward way to do things. Instead of climatologists using real science, we get egotistical climate bums, rigging the results to get what they want. catch us - if you can. Just like ADSCAM. Real scientists should be ripping these guys a new one for the growing credibility gap that "science" will have to win back in trust. Steve and others should get Nobel prizes for their efforts to pick these scabs apart.
Posted by: jt at September 18, 2007 2:05 PMThis is the same organization (NASA) that sent a spacecraft full-tilt into Mars because someone didn't convert MPH to Km/h.
I look forward to the day when government funded eggheads are jailed for fraudulently attaining grants and lying to the public.
I hear some inmates treat their bitches better than others...
Posted by: Warwick at September 18, 2007 2:10 PMAccording to the NASA site, the correction affected global temperature averages by -.001 degrees. Wouldn't that make 2005 still the warmest year on record, globally?
Posted by: Arthur A at September 18, 2007 2:11 PMThe manoeuver has rendered all GISS datasets worthless, and therefore the corresponding assumptions and predictions. Correction of a dataset with full explanation of the manipulation is one thing (even then..., if the data is empirical), but in the absence of rigorous explanation, the entire set, historic,corrected, and consequence is now trash.
Posted by: Skip at September 18, 2007 2:19 PMArthur a wrote
According to the NASA site, the correction affected global temperature averages by -.001 degrees. Wouldn't that make 2005 still the warmest year on record, globally?
Arthur,How can I possibly believe NASA, where do they get their info from?????? Who does the figuring??
Before I ventured out into the world of entrepreneurship I was employed as an editor by John Wiley & Sons Limited, a prestigious publisher of undergraduate and post-graduate textbooks and reference books. The company publishes some of the world's most authoritative titles in accounting and engineering. Over the 20 years I spent there I met truck loads of engineering professors, engineers, accounting professors and accountants. Accomplished as many of these people were (and are), but based on my experiences in meetings and author dinners, I would never defer to them on anything except their areas of specialization. I don't feel it's important to elaborate any further except to note that a facility with higher mathematics is just that; it doesn't automatically confer any special talents in other fields of thought and study.
To conflate degrees and professional accreditations (or designations) with expertise at large is a category error on your part that surprises me. I don't think you would have to work very hard to uncover accountants and engineers in say, Jordan, who are Islamo-fascists. And I would guess (that's silly: I decidedly know) that their opinions about politics, global warming, or the pornographic content of a Timothy Findlay novel would mean squat to you.
But I guess that's not your real agenda anyway. I called the photo of the Weber Kettle next to the weather data collection device insipid. You then transfer the insipid comment to your own (professional) readers on my behalf. To engender more name calling? It's getting difficult to ascertain what SDA is truly about - other than relentless name calling. At some point this "politics of resentment" should become a bit more constructive, don't you think. Some days I wonder how you keep going, surrounded as you are by people of such unyielding bitterness.
Posted by: wallen at September 18, 2007 2:26 PMSkip wrote: "The manoeuver has rendered all GISS datasets worthless, and therefore the corresponding assumptions and predictions. Correction of a dataset with full explanation of the manipulation is one thing (even then..., if the data is empirical), but in the absence of rigorous explanation, the entire set, historic,corrected, and consequence is now trash."
You can't be much of a fan of science, if admitting an error means everything is worthless, you don't have much chance for self-correction or criticism do you?
This comment applies to Sic n' Tyred as well.
Posted by: Arthur A at September 18, 2007 2:40 PM"Before I ventured out into the world of entrepreneurship I was employed as an editor by John Wiley & Sons Limited,"
They publish dog training books as well, I take it.
There is a saying in the exact sciences, "torture the data set enough and it will confess".
Posted by: John Lewis at September 18, 2007 2:48 PM"It's getting difficult to ascertain what SDA is truly about - other than relentless name calling."
Or perhaps you edited texts on "personality cults". Considering the nature of the first comment you made to this thread, the notion that you, of all people, would presume to lecture anyone on the practice of "relentless name calling" is a little rich, don't you think?
Changing a data set without notice or explanation is as gross a breach of scientific ethics as is possible. If detected it usually results in the immediate exit of the perpetrator from his or her field, and from his or her position; yes, even a tenured faculty position at a university.
Wallen
If you really want to see name calling and profanities go to myblahg.com. Some of those lefties are out of this world.
Posted by: Dan Moss at September 18, 2007 2:54 PMWallen,
Suzuki is a geneticist, not a climate scientist.
Gore is not a scientist at all.
NASA is a space agency, not a group of meteorologists or climate scientists. Most of the people preaching AGW from NASA and other sources are not discussing their area of expertise.
What the engineers and math guys know is modeling and statistics. So, it doesn't matter what the field of study, a modeling pro will know when they're being lied to and will be able to spot fraudulent data, manipulations and errors in procedure.
When you get to the bottom of a hole, the proper tool to extricate yourself from that sad position is a ladder - not a shovel.
Posted by: Warwick at September 18, 2007 2:54 PM"To conflate degrees and professional accreditations (or designations) with expertise at large is a category error on your part that surprises me.
And mistaking sarcasm for "a [conflation of] professional accreditation with expertise at large" is an error on your part that surprises me not at all.
Steve McIntyre !!
The Sheila Fraser of Climatology !!
Posted by: ron in kelowna at September 18, 2007 2:59 PMTo amplify a little on my previous post: it has for a long time been established that the lab books of an assayer working for a mine or whatever, containing raw data, are legal documents subject so subpoena; and woe to the assayer who attempts to erase or modify an entry.
A properly kept lab book, with pages "read and understood", can constitute strong evidence for priority in patent cases. I myself have "read and understood" and signed many pages of a small high-tech company with which I once worked.
Following the Imanishi-Kari case (for which see the entry under "David Baltimore" in Wikipedia) it became established that lab notebooks in university or government research laboratories would be similarly subject to examination, and were to be kept properly (paginated notebooks with dated entries written in ink with no attempts at erasure or use of opaquing fluid). In many labs these days it is usual to lock away lab notebooks in safes when they are not in use.
So if NASA has modified data sets without acknowledgement and explanation it is very serious and deserves investigation. U.S. National Academy of Science, perhaps?
Wiley publishes the "For Dummies" series. Howz that for a straight line. Have at it.
Posted by: wallen at September 18, 2007 3:13 PMWhat they need to publish is "Simple Logic for Liberals" to teach you how to think.
Posted by: Warwick at September 18, 2007 3:14 PMwallen , one can only surmise that you were the editor emeritus for that series.
Posted by: cal2 at September 18, 2007 3:22 PMJohn: The site does have comments up explaining the change. Even the site Kate links to acknowledges this, and so only complains that it took too long. Ok, fair enough, but it's up now.
I don't know for sure, but I'd guess that the real "raw" data, the stuff that is treated according the to strict standards you refer too is probably stored somewhere else, other than a website. That would make sense, wouldn't it? So no, I don't think the US National Academy of Science needs to investigate the record keeping habits of NASA's website.
Posted by: Arthur A at September 18, 2007 3:23 PMKate,
You're too busy trying to score points instead of making some.
The centre of your project is comprised of anti-matter: WL MacKenzie Redux says I affirmed global warming. I did nothing of the sort. Apropos of nothing whatsoever Warwick says I look foolish. About what? Another empty insult. Apropos of almost nothing comes your crack about dog training books. Then there's the posting about ADSCAM for climatologists - a juxtaposition that whiffs on wit but accomplishes another empty insult. Oh, and according to Dan Moss the lefties are even worse at name calling which is the emotional equivalent of saying, "But Mom, TOmmy's mother lets him cuss and swear."
You guys must clear rooms at parties.
Arthur : Still !!!
where do they get their info from?????? Who does the figuring??
Wallen,
Perhaps you can invite us to your blog when important discussions are taking place.
(or is this another empty insult??)
Posted by: Robert in Calgary at September 18, 2007 4:20 PMDid John Cross perform a lateral pass to these clowns ??
At least he was a polite 'muddy-the-water' troll.
sda archives are chock full of very knowlegeable people squashing any and all latte trolls that come along.
In the case of the Kyoto Kult, the Quebec voters saw through the media scam and gave that denier, PM Harper, an astounding 36.9% of the popular vote !!
Dion, the dog Kyoto, suffered with only 14.2 %.
And head clansman E May, a pathetic 2.6
Says it all.
Posted by: ron in kelowna at September 18, 2007 4:34 PMRobert,
Sure doesn't read like an empty insult. Sounds like a friendly invite. Am I being naive?
I'm writing a blog actually. Haven't launched it yet. It's going to centre on the limit=infinity self commodification of Jian Ghomeshi. My guess is there won't be a lot of important discussions coming my way.
Posted by: wallen at September 18, 2007 4:44 PMKeep up the good work Wallen, I'm enjoying your input. I warn you though, I find they tend to confuse logic and reality easily, particularly when that reality involves climate science. When confused they anger easily, which leads to name-calling: “a lateral pass to these clowns”. It reminds me of monkeys in their cage hanging by their tail throwing feces, but these people have evolved just enough to have lost their prehensile tails.
I’ve also noticed fraises such as “tongue in cheek” tend confuse them as well.
Kate: A blogger always knows they are doing well if they attract trolls. Obviously from the crowd you are gathering at your feet trying to snipe would indicate you are doing not just well ..... rather, you are doing great.
Posted by: Bcer at September 18, 2007 4:56 PMArthur A. Big fan of science. So much so, I spent 35 years studying it, playing with it, evaluating it. Know lots about the quality of collection of empirical data, its derivation, and its reductible quality.
As reducible data GISS data is on thin ice at the outset. Meddle with it, and science falls through.
Wallen. Lots of empty words about a peripheral career with a publisher - what exactly are you trying to say? Apparently, an editor, you weren't.
"But being the scrupulous person that you are, you'll spin it anyways. I preferred the pic of the wheeled barbecue next to the data collection device. That was insipid enough for your personality cult to grapple."
Huh? lessee: drive-by slur, personal opinion, personal opinion, insult, slur.
Where's the content? So you're a self-employed dog trainer. Good, many need them. Kate is self-employed dog breeder AND Trainer. Upped you one, bud. Me, I used to just repair 'em.
Posted by: Skip at September 18, 2007 4:56 PM"It's getting difficult to ascertain what SDA is truly about - other than relentless name calling."
Awww cummon Wallen... stop hiding behind that vacant facade of pseudo intellectual condescension and take your medicine like a man.
YOU were the one who started the name calling and making disingenuous innuendos about Kate's motives and the character of SDA posters...you got tagged for it....can't stand the heat? ... Then don't torque people the wrong way....you got busted for your ignorant and pompous condemnations....suck it up buddy and stop wimpering like a paper training puppy ;-)
"WL MacKenzie Redux says I affirmed global warming. I did nothing of the sort."
You implied the picture was somehow fraudulent as a symbol of lax NASA data collection used in GW fear mongering...what other conclusion can be made?...or are we to be clairvoyant to catch your intent?
I also said you had a Dion-like ability to mutilate meaning in what you are trying to enunciate...that seems correct at this point.
""surrounded as you are by people of such unyielding bitterness""
Join the chorus then...seems to be a good deal of bitter vindictiveness pouring from that taunt.
Look I'm not TRYING to take a crap on you...I'm saying you best get used to the free for all of lightly moderated I-net debate....be prepared to defend everything you say because there is always someone who will take a run at your reasoning...secondly , clearly enunciate your position...nebulous statements and snide innuendo are not really all that courageous or intelligent..people pick up on maligning intent quickly and you usually get stomped for it where ever you go...so be up front even if you disagree, drop the condesceding attitude and address people (even those you disagree with) with a modicum of respect...it's bad enough the internet texting is a terrible medium to be understood in the first place without making your intent unclear....and ferkissake don't take everything so damn personal.
So there! A little condescending patronization right back atcha. :-)
Posted by: WL Mackenzie Redux at September 18, 2007 5:07 PM"I’ve also noticed fraises such as “tongue in cheek” tend confuse them as well."
Yah, that's good Alby. You go, lad. DEMONSTRATE that hier educayshun. That degree is really going to be worth something some day. Take it with you camping.
Posted by: Skip at September 18, 2007 5:12 PMalby
ah, show me one, I say one program that can even modestly run a climate simulation, and then show a damn computer with the ability to run it
me thinks the likes of you and wallen haven't the foggiest idea just how complex weather patterns realy are, nor how limited,comparatively, our computing ability actually is
Posted by: GYM at September 18, 2007 5:14 PMKate,
Just want to say your site keeps me amused and informed.
I too spent some time in a research lab and am disturbed by all the AGW data 'tweaking and adjusting' that seems to be going on.
Wallen, it seems to me that SDA has its share of qualified commenters that do apply some thought to their comments.
Your dismissing of them seems to me to take away from your arguments.
Debate on!
Wallen
a blog based on a CBCpravda has been shows limited opportunity, personally if I were to run a blog it would be on helical particle waves but thats just my thoughts. I think I'll write one on bug genetics until Dr. Bono Suzuki cries uncle.
take the chance to view the Weblogs Awards 2006 winner sticker. something that you can only view here.
Thanks Kate.
Posted by: cal2 at September 18, 2007 5:21 PMMonty Python..... I'm just here for the argument....no your not!
Freekin' idiot trolls............what a waste of electrons!
Posted by: OMMAG at September 18, 2007 5:22 PMFraises. That's classic. A real fox pas.
Posted by: Yukon Gold at September 18, 2007 5:22 PM"I’ve also noticed fraises such as “tongue in cheek”
Other than tasting good on the tongue, what do strawberries have to do with this?
Posted by: Nemo2 at September 18, 2007 5:25 PMAlby has been taking the Kellogg's short course on bilingualism and multi/culti. Now with extra fibre.
Posted by: Skip at September 18, 2007 5:26 PMFraises. That's classic. A real fox pas.
Posted by: Yukon Gold at September 18, 2007 5:22 PM
Oops, I goofed, I am only human after all, "phrase". Is that better, I guess one really should proof read a bit closer?
Now if all of you who picked that up would remember to ensure that all of your, your/you're" and there/theirs, among your many, many other errors I read here are in order, I won't bother to pick them up every time I see them. I notice there’s considerable numbers of grammatical errors and typos on this sight.
Wallen
Won't you please come to my Emotional Rescue? I like parties. Are you having any I could attend? You'll have to give me your address.
Thanks
Posted by: Dan Moss at September 18, 2007 5:49 PMfraises - phrase ,geez , more than a typo. indicative of an education by "hooked on phonics" or as alby would call it " hokt on fonix"
Posted by: cal2 at September 18, 2007 6:00 PMEven funnier, Cal2, is the following sentence "...there’s considerable numbers of grammatical errors and typos on this sight".
Let's give him the benefit of the doubt though, and assume that the grammatical error and typo in his sentence about grammatical errors and typos was just in jest.
Posted by: Eeyore at September 18, 2007 6:12 PMhttp://dictionary.reverso.net/english-definitions/fraise
fraise
n
1 a neck ruff worn during the 16th century
2 a sloping or horizontal rampart of pointed stakes
3
a a tool for enlarging a drill hole
b a tool for cutting teeth on watch wheels
Which definition of fraise were you referring to, alby?
Alby, we only point it out because you were making fun of the collective intelligence around here. More often than not, we'll slam your skewed viewpoints and leave the grammar to the Eats Shoots and Leaves-type bloggers.
This one, however, was delicious. Pun intended.
Posted by: Yukon Gold at September 18, 2007 6:15 PMKate...why don't you start a side blog with "troll of the month" and /or "stupidest fraise" award? Should be quite a number to pick from.
Posted by: Justthinkin at September 18, 2007 6:53 PMBernie Ebbers went to prison for less than what Hansen has apparently done with the global temperature data. And while Worldcom cost investors a lot of money, the amount of money that is being swindled right under our noses by the AGW crowd dwarfs the money lost in Worldcom by several orders of magnitude.
Posted by: Ed Minchau at September 18, 2007 7:25 PM"hanging by their tail throwing feces"
An insulting image, I suppose, but it takes a certain amount of skill; better to throw it, rather than constantly hang around to catch it in the face. Or does this satisfy some dark, twisted need?
Posted by: lulu boscoe at September 18, 2007 8:01 PM"hanging by their tail throwing feces"
An insulting image, I suppose, but it takes a certain amount of skill; better to throw it, rather than constantly hang around to catch it in the face. Or does this satisfy some dark, twisted need?"
Well, you could be polite, I suppose, like the Liberals new mascot (the bird, not the eunuched leader) and hide it instead, only to be found when one wonders what that latest stink is...
Posted by: Skip at September 18, 2007 8:25 PMHansen calls the changes to make 1934 insignificant; that the cooling in South America and Africa are insignificant. Just how "global" is this warming? I would have thought it would have, like, you know, been all over the globe.
Posted by: Wimpy Canadian at September 18, 2007 8:45 PM
Over at climateaudit, some wag asked:
I still haven’t had explained to me how the seasonal variations in CO2 concentration create the seasons.
And received this reply:
Well, first of all you have to forget all that stuff about the spinning Earth being tilted at an angle of twenty-something degrees to the ecliptic, and cooling during its Northern winters, warming during its summers. Forget about the Sun. Or better still, think of the Earth as being flat.
Think instead about CO2 in the atmosphere. During summer, when plant photosynthesis is maximum, plants absorb CO2 from the atmosphere, and reduce its levels, and thus reduce global warming, resulting in a subsequent cold winter. During winter, when plant photosynthesis is at a minimum, CO2 levels tend to rise, resulting in global warming - and the subsequent warm summer.
See. Quite easy to explain.
You’ll probably want to know about anthropogenic seasonal variation too. That is, how humans manage to create the seasons. And this happens because, during winter, humans tend to light fires to keep warm, and these fires generate CO2, which causes global warming, and results in warm summers. During these warm summers, humans stop burning fires, and the excess CO2 is absorbed by plants, reducing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and bringing global cooling, and the subsequent winter.
The result, as I’m sure you’ll see, is that the seasonal cycle of spring-summer-autumn-winter is entirely created by human activity, and if humans would simply stop burning fires in winter, this seasonal variation would vanish, and terrestrial surface temperatures would remain more or less constant.
Convinced? I’m sure you are. If you want to save the world from the endless cycle of the destruction of the creation, all you have to do is to not turn on your heating system when temperatures fall 10 or 20 degrees C below zero. It would also help if you stayed outside, and didn’t wear any clothes, or ate anything. You know by now that it makes no sense to do stupid things like that, right?
Posted by: Wimpy Canadian at September 18, 2007 8:48 PMIt always seemed to me that the AGW folks had a pretty good case for 0.2 to 0.3C increase, but the evidence for much beyond that seemed shakey at best. And I haven't seen anything that rings true for how a colder south pole can be forcast in all of their musings.
They would help their case tremendously by publishing their ACTUAL code and methods and keep the "father knows best" talks to themselves.
Posted by: RicardoVerde at September 18, 2007 8:52 PMThe Global Warming Meltdown is just about as far along right now as the gun control meltdown was when Michael Bellesiles published his book "Arming America". Shortly after he was exposed as a fraud, and by extension the whole liberal gun control lobby with him.
I look forward to heads rolling at NASA over this. Pretty soon the whole affair will be history, just like Sarah Brady.
God speed the day.
Incidentally, and entirely off topic, Wallen and Alby are doody heads.
Posted by: The Phantom at September 18, 2007 8:54 PMjt, Real scientists are reulactant to speak out ebcause they risk teh modern equivelant of the Spanish Inquisition, let alone reduced or cancelled government research grants.
If a nutritionist, for example, wants the money for a study, it must be on "the effect of global warming on ice-cream induced obesity" not the more honestly titled "Do fat kids eat more ice cream?"
Posted by: Wimpy Canadian at September 18, 2007 9:01 PMAnd the albatross enters the fray with a paragraph long slur ranting about name-calling. HA!
Liberal fools don't have anywhere to go; the right sites are where all the action is :-)
Posted by: Wimpy Canadian at September 18, 2007 9:32 PMWallen and alby...I hope you read wimpy canadian's post @ 8:48 pm. It should explain a lot. But Wimpy...what about the influence of Bullwinkle and Bossie??
Posted by: Justthinkin at September 18, 2007 9:39 PMCal2, "fraises" is pronounced FREZZ.
But maybe not if you a a Dion speech-writer :-)
Posted by: Wimpy Canadian at September 18, 2007 9:40 PMWimpy: Real scientists are reulactant to speak out ebcause they risk teh modern equivelant of the Spanish Inquisition,
So why do Lindzen, Spencer, Christy, Singer, McKitrick, McIntyer, and others get published? The simple fact is that ideas that deserve to be put before the scientific community are - no matter what point of view they represent.
Regards,
John
Lulu, but are they hanging around by their tail, throwing shit...or are they around by here, throwing shit with their tail?
Rather like:
"I saw the girl in the park with the telescope."
Where is the girl, where am I and where is the telescope? Difficult to say. This is why computer translation will never get beyond shopping lists and Dijon speeches. It gets even harder when the ambiguity is deliberately developed to convey meaning.
Re-posting from http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/archives/006895.html#c190312 on 25 August - see below in quotes.
Re, change to GISS dataset.
"I plotted the referenced data. My curves effectively look the same, but are not identical. The major difference is that I have about one more year worth of data, and that his last year's data (mid-2005 to mid-2006) appears 0.15 to 0.2 Celcius (sic) degrees cooler than the current data set. Cursory inspection reveals no difference at earlier years.
The present dataset yields average mean warming sover (sic) the last 5 years of 0.175 C (SH), 0.373 (NH), and 0.274 (Global).
I really want see if there has been any change to the referenced dataset.
I really want to see raw data, and a full explanation of how all adjustments are made."
The effect was significant, even at that date. For the benefit of wallen and alby, the analysis and interpretation of data from complex systems is my field. I am a practicing engineer and scientist. I publish and hold research grants. The acquisition and treatment of data by NASA in this regard is not open and transparent and does not conform to established standards of scientific rigor.
Posted by: Tenebris at September 18, 2007 9:50 PMJohn Cross, your exceptions prove the rule. These people have had to suffer immense obloquy from government funded bureaucrats, NGOs and, even I'm ashamed to say, scientists, for their opposition to the hysterical melodrama of billions of government funding each year for "global warming".
Posted by: Wimpy Canadian at September 18, 2007 9:57 PMI will note that John V's work over at ClimateAudit is very interesting on a number of levels. A good overview of it can be found here .
If you look at the record from class 5 sites you can see that it follows the Class 1&2 quote well. If you recall, class 5's are sites that have errors that may be more than 5C. As this graph shows, the actual errors are much less.
While the analysis is preliminary, it is looking like all the identified problems don't really amount to much.
John.
Posted by: John Cross at September 18, 2007 9:57 PMWimpy: I don't know about immense obloquy, but it has not hurt their funding.
Tenebris: The changes that you linked to are from the MSU dataset, not the GISS. However I am not convinced that the methodologies are that secret. First, there are no greater skeptics than Spencer and Christy. Second, there is enough back and forth in the scientific literature to convince me that the methods are well known. After all there was enough information for the RSS team to identify a very specific flaw in the S&C methodology.
Regards,
John
Why did I wake him ?? They fumbled the lateral and he revovered out of bounds.
Posted by: ron in kelowna at September 18, 2007 10:20 PMJohn - I sit corrected.
Posted by: Tenebris at September 18, 2007 10:24 PMJohn, I suppose you are following climateaudit.org as I do.
A number of things, of which you are probably aware and have just overlooked.
1. There is a difference between East and West mainland USA in the averages.
1a. And it depends upon which data set you use.
1b. And Hansen has just switched data sets.
2.These numbers do not show cataclysmic warming - in fact, they have cooled since 1998 (or 1934, your choice).
3. The "global warming" is not very global.
4. The main source of the "global" warming appear to be in places less likely to have a reliable record than the USA.
To me, it is clear that, apart from a few very long term records, with station histories, or well understood near-term proxies, such as sediment cores, the only reliable way to measure the "planet's temperature" is via satellite. This should focus on lower atmosphere (troposphere) and sea temperatures.
Posted by: Wimpy Canadian at September 18, 2007 10:26 PMRegarding John V.'s work,
"After a closer look at JohnV's data it seems that the unadjusted USHCN data and GISS adjusted data is what is matching. That means that GISS did not adjust out any of the errors caused by UHI, Microsite effects, station moves, changes in equipment and so on." -Kristen Byrnes
Posted by: Robert in Calgary at September 18, 2007 11:01 PMPole vs. Pole:
http://www.am770chqr.com/station/blog_the_world_tonight.cfm?bid=16713&m=9&y=2007
Posted by: Rob at September 18, 2007 11:18 PMWallen "worked for" a publisher (past tense)
is into entrapeneurship (vague)
and is going to have a blog (just haven't got around to doing it, eh....cuz you know, actually opening a blogger page takes soooooo much time)
Translation:
Wallen's unemployed, and he probably likes it that way.
Posted by: biff at September 18, 2007 11:32 PMJust as I thought.
http://www.barna.org/FlexPage.aspx?Page=BarnaUpdateNarrow&BarnaUpdateID=279
Hey alby - It's hard to practise two religions at once.
Posted by: Tenebris at September 19, 2007 6:03 AMNASA scientist James E. Hansen, who has publicly criticized the Bush administration for dragging its feet on climate change and labeled skeptics of man-made global warming as distracting “court jesters,” appears in a 1971 Washington Post article that warns of an impending ice age within 50 years.
“U.S. Scientist Sees New Ice Age Coming,” blares the headline of the July 9, 1971, article, which cautions readers that the world “could be as little as 50 or 60 years away from a disastrous new ice age, a leading atmospheric scientist predicts."
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070919/NATION02/109190067/1008
mojo at September 19, 2007 5:15 PM
"The scientist was S.I. Rasool, a colleague of Mr. Hansen's"
He was a colleague, there is no mention of Hansen whatsoever found in the Science article that the Washington Post was referring to. If you read the journal article from start to finish you will see the that we will never know if Rasool was correct in his claims or not.
Remember Marvin Gaye.........Mercy Mercy Me the Ecology. That was almost 40 years ago. No one listened then and finally someone is listening now.
Posted by: ok4ua at September 21, 2007 4:57 PMWe need more singers Like Marvin Gaye. And he was a black american. He was smart and true. Imagine that all of you right wing WASP's out there.
Posted by: ok4ua at September 21, 2007 5:08 PM