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May 8, 2007

Not Easy Going Green

Popular Science;

What follows is our assessment of the current status and the future of the key alternatives to gasoline. We predict, based on the educated guesses of industry experts, how much of the U.S. market each alternative will hold in 20 years—and, as a result, where that will leave that wretched villain, gasoline.

Posted by Kate at May 8, 2007 6:25 PM
Comments

there is always water!!
www.mobilemag.com/content/100/354/C8115/

Posted by: keith at May 8, 2007 6:35 PM

Have been waiting for 45 years. Suzuki and Gore still on fossils also.

Posted by: ron in kelowna at May 8, 2007 7:10 PM

Fascinating. Notice how, despite the screeches of the Kyoto crowd, the technology for these fuels and motors still hasn't been developed in its 'reasonably best form' - and dates are mentioned anywhere from 2011 (Kyoto deadline near?) and the suggested evaluation time in the article of 2027.

According to Dion, May, Suzuki and Gore - it will be too late. But then, they aren't advocating research and development; their solution is to send money to the third world.

Posted by: ET at May 8, 2007 7:28 PM

I'm still waiting for that flying car they were promising me in the 1950s...

Posted by: Bruce at May 8, 2007 7:45 PM

WHAT NO SOLAR CAR?

Posted by: aj in calgary at May 8, 2007 7:48 PM

I didn't see any with sails.

Posted by: Fergy at May 8, 2007 7:56 PM

Wow...dig the fins on that ergonomically designed eco-friendly Ox cart.

Posted by: WL Mackenzie Redux at May 8, 2007 7:56 PM

To quote the cited article:

"...But a convergence of factors—recent innovations, consumers fed up with high gasoline prices, and a now-obvious environmental crisis—may finally be creating a tipping point..."

It's drivel like this that caused me to cancel my Pop-Sci subscription...

Posted by: Richard Evans at May 8, 2007 8:05 PM

"Popular Science" is a euphemism for science for uneducated conservatives, aka science dummies.

This survey of alternative techs is a joke and so are the fools who think it's anywhere near exhaustive. The point about hydrogen is probably the most accurate part of the entire OPINION piece.

SO what do y'all think about your genius performance in the polls? LMFAO!

Posted by: A Quantum Liberal at May 8, 2007 8:13 PM

We could be off gasoline entirely in 20 years. We could all be driving electric/biodiesel hybrid cars.

Posted by: KPK at May 8, 2007 8:19 PM

Henry Ford was the original environmentalist. He specified gasoline as a fuel to stop it from being burnt or dumped into rivers because it was a useless byproduct of refining for kerosene. Where is that research saying E85 has far more hazardous exhaust than gasoline?

Posted by: Roger in Calgary at May 8, 2007 8:42 PM

Quantum Liberal:

What, then, would be the science magazine for intelligent Liberals?

Answer: There isn't one. Once they find an intelligent Liberal, they'll ask for a government grant to start a magazine up.

Posted by: Yukon Gold at May 8, 2007 8:44 PM

Lol at Yukon. There is no single source for Libs, we know better.

However, there are thousands of peer reviewed journals that all of us liberal scinetists like to use on a regular basis. You know the ones with the liberal bias ROFL!

Posted by: A Quantum Liberal at May 8, 2007 9:09 PM

A Quantim Liberal said:

"However, there are thousands of peer reviewed journals that all of us liberal scinetists like to use on a regular basis. You know the ones with the liberal bias ROFL!"

Cite them. Every one. Put-up or shut-up time princess. Please tell the group just exactly which peer reviewed journals you reference...

Posted by: Richard Evans at May 8, 2007 9:21 PM

"However, there are thousands of peer reviewed journals that all of us liberal scinetists like to use on a regular basis."

scinetists scinetists scinetists scinetists scinetists scinetists

Yeah, right.

Posted by: Greg Grandy at May 8, 2007 9:46 PM

We could be off gasoline entirely in 20 years. We could all be driving electric/biodiesel hybrid cars.
Posted by: KPK at May 8, 2007 8:19 PM

KPK: The biodiesel effort is going to cause a major problem in the world food supply. It would be interesting to see how you have solved that world problem.
Forget the bio junk and burn the fossil fuel while creating an incentive for R&D to develop alternate methods of fuel consumption.

Posted by: Jim in Calgary at May 8, 2007 9:50 PM

Pretty good summary of the existing technology, I thought.

The technology is here today for electric vehicles. They're not going to be used by long-haul truckers but for city driving EVs can do the job. If we switched to electric we'd stop indirectly funding terrorism and Islamofascism through ME oil.

Electric is a lot cheaper too, costing the equivalent of about 1/5 of current gasoline prices for the same driving distance.

Posted by: Belisarius at May 8, 2007 10:26 PM

Belesarius: And we are going to use what to recharge our depleted electrical system how?
By using petrochemicals or coal to fire the generators that provide us with the electricity to get... electricity, maybe.

Posted by: Jim in Calgary at May 8, 2007 10:52 PM

The Hydrogen fuelled car produces water vapour....The largest Green house gas at 90%...

Go figure...even water will be doomed by Suzuki, Gore et al.. when they realize that the most dominant GHG is Water Vapour... Adapting the gal advocaing only "1 square only per visit to the latrine" ,they'll soon be telling us to stop taking showers as it produces Greenhouse Gases.

Posted by: rl at May 8, 2007 11:10 PM

TG says the current grid can handle 180,000,000 vehicles since most recharging will happen at night. I've heard lower figures of 25,000,000 vehicles elsewhere.

Personally, I think we'll need to build nuclear reactors.

Posted by: Belisarius at May 8, 2007 11:16 PM

Belisarius said:

"TG says the current grid can handle 180,000,000 vehicles since most recharging will happen at night. I've heard lower figures of 25,000,000 vehicles elsewhere."

Right. Now come out of your dream world and look at reality... When are people "most likely" to plug their cars in? I'm guessing it's when they get home at the end of their day (Just like they do in Sask. in the heart of winter) From 5 - 8 pm. Now add that to the electrical load created by stoves, ovens, dishwashers, microwaves, A/C, furnaces and evening lighting...

Why can't these idiots think things through before they type?

Posted by: Richard Evans at May 8, 2007 11:26 PM

Hence my comment that I think we'll need nuclear reactors, Richard. Or was it too much too ask to read the final sentence?

On the other hand, plenty of experts already say the current grid can handle the load. If you don't believe me, check it out yourself. Shouldn't be too hard for a genius like you.

Posted by: Belisarius at May 8, 2007 11:48 PM

"Cite them. Every one. Put-up or shut-up time princess. Please tell the group just exactly which peer reviewed journals you reference...

Posted by: Richard Evans at May 8, 2007 9:21 PM"

These ones Richard

http://sfx.scholarsportal.info/trent/azlist/default?current_view=table&service=&perform=searchTitle&type=browseLetterGroup&letter_group=2&pattern=&textSearchType=&vendor=&category=&subcategory=

Posted by: albatros39a at May 9, 2007 12:16 AM

Sorry Albatross but you've cited a link to Trent University that provides absolutely no information at all... Please, provide a direct link to the peer reviewed journals you're referencing and, no, studies on nursing don't count...

Posted by: Richard Evans at May 9, 2007 12:22 AM

Belisarius said:

"Hence my comment that I think we'll need nuclear reactors, Richard. Or was it too much too ask to read the final sentence?"

I wasn't disputing the idea that we'd need nuclear reactors at all. I think it's a good idea. I was disputing your lame-assed assertion that the draw on the grid would be negligible because it would be happening at "night"...

Posted by: Richard Evans at May 9, 2007 12:29 AM

People are getting tired of paying over $3:00 and over for gas and getting those stupid letter from the SIERRA CLUB or GREENPEACE urging us to oppose drilling in the ANWR a say feed the eco-freaks to the polar bears

Posted by: spurwing plover at May 9, 2007 12:35 AM

Richard,

You're right that people would plug in when they come home. For a few hours that's a period of peak load. If the grid can't handle it, let's build those reactors.

My point on all this is that the technology exists today for us to begin reducing dependency on oil from unfriendly countries. At the same time, we reduce smog and save money.

Personally, I'm tired of paying $50 to fill my car up. And gas prices don't seem to be getting any lower.

Saudi Arabia uses their oil billions to build Wahhabi mosques around the world and spread their poisonous ideas. Hugo Chavez is using Venezuelan oil money for nefarious purposes in Latin America.

We've got the technology to end this. Oil self-sufficiency in North America could be a reality, and very soon. It's just a question of will, and a little engineering.

Posted by: Belisarius at May 9, 2007 12:54 AM

Richard Evans,

You may feel strongly emotional about your opinion but intense emotion does not translate into fact.

The draw for battery charging is very low demand over time and varies across the country in each time zone.

Air conditioning during a heat wave is 24 hour high demand in all time zones across the US and Canada at once. That all at once full time demand is what can cause brown - outs.

There are plenty of validating links for this at: TonyGuitar.blogspot.com

What validation do you have to prove your theory that battery charging will cause the grid to deliver brown-outs?

This kind of Lobby Power is far more maddening than any false claim of undue power demand by charging batteries.

While the Auto Alliance may be against the bill, the domestic automakers did get a little something they wanted:

$50 million a year in advanced battery research funding. Last year, the Big Three asked the feds for $500,000,000 to build better batteries.
============ AutoBlogGreen.com

Damn lobbyists! = TG

Posted by: TG at May 9, 2007 5:02 AM

Jim in Calgary,

Biodiesel from algae represents the best hope for a fuel replacement thus far. You can cultivate 15000 gallons per acre in a 2000 hectare algae farm which can consume 40% of all CO2 emissions from a coal fired plant. In the future you would get the CO2 from the air by removing Nitrogen from the Atmosphere making CO2 a much bigger percentage of the intake gas. You can also collect used oil from restaurants and food waste to create biodiesel.


Posted by: KPK at May 9, 2007 6:38 AM

Jim in Calgary,

Biodiesel from algae represents the best hope for a fuel replacement thus far. You can cultivate 15000 gallons per acre in a 2000 hectare algae farm which can consume 40% of all CO2 emissions from a coal fired plant. In the future you would get the CO2 from the air by removing Nitrogen from the Atmosphere making CO2 a much bigger percentage of the intake gas. You can also collect used oil from restaurants and food waste to create biodiesel.

Posted by: KPK at May 9, 2007 6:39 AM

"You may feel strongly emotional about your opinion but intense emotion does not translate into fact."

There's no emotion involved TG

The draw for battery charging is very low demand over time and varies across the country in each time zone.

I don't know where you're reading that garbage but basic physics dictates that energy out = energy in, no matter what country or time zone the battery is being charged in. If a battery expended 1000 watts, that 1000 watts needs to be put back into it. Period. Yes, if a trickle charger is used the demand load can be lessened but that effectively takes peoples vehicles out of commission for 8 - 12 hours per day. That won't happen. People aren't going to pay 30K for a vehicle they can't use on demand.

"Air conditioning during a heat wave is 24 hour high demand in all time zones across the US and Canada at once. That all at once full time demand is what can cause brown - outs."

That's right. Now, create extra demand on an already taxed grid by plugging-in 200 million cars.

What validation do you have to prove your theory that battery charging will cause the grid to deliver brown-outs?

My validation is called "physics".

Posted by: Richard Evans at May 9, 2007 7:44 AM

I use about 2 gallon per day of gas. Seems that will be a lot of chips to fry and eat in order to supply my own car. soon I will be bigger than last years version of Kirsty Ally.

Posted by: cal2 at May 9, 2007 8:30 AM

In addition to building more generating capacity, I'm sure there are some simple technical solutions for reducing load on the grid when charging EVs. A timer on the home charging receptacle might be one. Or a switch on the plug itself, say between "overnight" or "instant" charge.

Posted by: Belisarius at May 9, 2007 8:52 AM

KPK,

"In the future you would get the CO2 from the air by removing Nitrogen from the Atmosphere making CO2 a much bigger percentage of the intake gas."

How are you going to remove nitrogen from the air? It makes up 78% of the atmosphere. If you remove the N2, you end up with an atmosphere too thin to breathe or poisonous or damned flamable.

Posted by: jnicklin at May 9, 2007 12:07 PM

Yukon asks QL: "What, then, would be the science magazine for intelligent Liberals?"

Yukon, you said there isn't one; sorry, I wasn't aware Mad magazine had stopped publishing.

BTW folks, forget alby's "links." Rarely are they relevant to his argument. His Harper Hamas link was particularly funny, trying to tie French election (right winger) and riots (left wing?), as somehow equivalent to Harper right, riots left (his linked article made no mention whatsoever of this).

A more accurate assessment would be: anybody but a moonbat leftie wins, then the election was fixed, stolen, undemocratic. Since the left "tried" to use legitimate means, rioting is now permitted.

Posted by: Shamrock at May 9, 2007 12:19 PM

Richard Evans, if you are worried about the draw on the electrical system between 5 and 8 pm, simply have the home recharger put on a delay that doesn't start recharging until after 9 pm. I agree with TG...there should be a way to use the spare capacity during the night.

As for your concerns about spontaneous availability, I'm sure that 95% of the time the electric vehicle WOULD be available, depending on the length of a person's normal per day driving and the amount of charge an EV can hold. If you commute a total of 100 km per day and your car has a range of 250 km and you plug it in at the end of each day, then the vast majority of a person's transportation needs would be adequately covered.

I suspect that once you get EV's with a range of 250 km or more and prices that are reasonably competitive, many families will consider purchasing them as second cars.

I'm sure that someone with the power use statistics from (let's say) Ontario Hydro and knowledge of the amount of draw that would be required by an EV for an overnight charge could quickly calculate the maximum number of vehicles that could be charged at night with the current power supply we have. I suspect that it would be a healthy number. TonyGuitar, that's your cue.

Posted by: Eeyore at May 9, 2007 12:48 PM

RE,
Physics, exactly. So in a rush to defend your impulse science, you failed to check through the documentation on my site. {click TG below].

The AltairNanoSafe battery recharges in 10 to 20 minutes, not hours and at a fraction of the demand of your clothes dryer.

Battery packs that take hours to charge can be supplied in modular pairs. Swap one out for charging and charge off down the road with the other. For longer trips install both side by side. Just like one swaps batteries for the portable electric drill.

As you know, all new appliances like air conditioners and fridges have new lower energy demand design with EPA energy standards labels clearly posted.

Thus, the capacity for the grid to support battery charging grows larger every day.

Jim in Calgary,

I was amazed at the immense size of the Bio-fuels industry already in place.

The Agri-giants are in fact, gigantic.

**These projects complement DOE’s announcement earlier this year, which makes available up to $385 million over four years for the development of six full-scale biorefineries. The full-scale biorefineries focus on near-term commercial processes, while the small-scale facilities will experiment with new feedstocks and processing technologies. Combined, these small- and full-scale projects will receive up to $585 million in federal investment:

http://www.energy.gov/news/5031.htm

Minnesota alone already has 300 E85 outlets and more coming:
The goal: to make E85 ethanol blends and flexible-fuel vehicles mainstream in Minnesota. E85 Everywhere is supported by the National Ethanol Vehicle Coalition and hopes to encourage 1,800 E85 fueling outlets in Minnesota over the next few years. There are already over 300 such stations in the state according to NEVC.Related: Minnesota passes legislation to generate 25 percent renewable energy by 2020.

British Columbia sees biofuels Big part of 2025 energy self-sufficiency plan
===================================

The GLOBE Foundation released a report that found **ample indigenous renewable energy** available in British Columbia for the province to be energy self-sufficient by 2025. Most of the energy would be provided by hydroelectric power, with other renewables - wind, solar, geothermal and ocean energy - all possible in the Canadian province.

Electricity generated from biomass sources will create a *bio-electric* economy. How people will get around is not fully explained at the Renewable Energy Access site where I found this information on the **The Endless Energy Project,** but the overall idea is that lifestyles would continue the way they are today, so personal transportation must be part of the study.

Indeed it is. The report sees petroleum imports replaced with indigenous biofuels and electricity, so that implies internal combustion engine vehicles and electric cars will still be on the roads in 2025. Using hybrids, fuel cell cars and electric vehicles. Biofuels info galore at:

http://www.autobloggreen.com/search/2/?q=bio

= TG

Posted by: TG at May 9, 2007 1:14 PM

They Hate the Elecric Vehicle [EV]

Chevron: and the gang
============
Keeping you captive to gas and diesel means profit margins wide enough to finance a new 15 Billion$ refinery out of your pocket and not out of company surpluses.

General Motors: Big three and all
============
Keeping you captive to gas and diesel engines means the golden profits goose for parts and service will live on. There is no parts and service gold-mine in the Electric Car. Too simple. Like your electric fan. No rad, no hoses, no muffler, no filters, no fluids, no injectors, no spark plugs, no pumps, no pressures, ad infinitum.

Government: Feds and provincial
===========
More than 50% of every gas dollar you spend goes to Government. While every KWH gives you 95% value from the wall outlet through your EV tires to the road. [ until they set up kiosks to read your EV mileage for road taxes, semi-annually]

Unions: Buzz and the boys
===========
Too obvious why they hate Evs.

Belinda and Magna: - Canadian Tire: - Lordco: yadda
===========
Also too obvious. Auto parts not required!

And now they all hate me for saying so. If I disappear, only Conrad Black will not be a suspect. = TG

Posted by: TG at May 9, 2007 2:09 PM

Introducing the two biggist eco-wackos around AL GORE as ECO-FREAK and DAVID SUZUKI as GREEN NUT they would make the MIGHTY HEROS look common sense

Posted by: spurwing plover at May 9, 2007 2:40 PM

Richard Evans, if you are worried about the draw on the electrical system between 5 and 8 pm, simply have the home recharger put on a delay that doesn't start recharging until after 9 pm. I agree with TG...there should be a way to use the spare capacity during the night.

Would those restrictions be government or consumer mandated? How would it accommodate people work swing or night shifts? Whay about the soccer/hockey mom who needs to recharge the minivan before she runs the kids to practice after dinner?

As for your concerns about spontaneous availability, I'm sure that 95% of the time the electric vehicle WOULD be available, depending on the length of a person's normal per day driving and the amount of charge an EV can hold. If you commute a total of 100 km per day and your car has a range of 250 km and you plug it in at the end of each day, then the vast majority of a person's transportation needs would be adequately covered.

Unlike the liberal leftist elitist who drives only 20 klicks/day (to and from campus), some of us actually put mileage on a vehicle. What about the folks who put better than 250 klicks on during a single day (like me)? I'm not sure If you've noticed or not but most major cities are more than 100 klicks apart. Your vehicles/methods wouldn't get me from Calgary to Saskatoon in a single day. I'd have to leave Calgary and stop in Hanna to recharge. I'd have to stay the night in Hanna because the recharge stations wouldn't be activated until after 9. Then I'd (maybe) make it Rosedale where I'd have to stay another night while my battery recharges. Finally, on day 3 I'd make it to Saskatoon where I wouldn't be able to do jack squat because my car would be out of juice and I'd have to wait until day 4 before I could go anywhere or do anything...

This is the point I was trying to make earlier, you individuals (idiots) are dreaming-up pie in the sky solutions without thinking things through. What would normally take me 6 hours with my internal combustion engine would, under your plan, take me three days. Regular folks aren't going to but into that crap.

I suspect that once you get EV's with a range of 250 km or more and prices that are reasonably competitive, many families will consider purchasing them as second cars.

I don't know about you, but where I come from, people buy second cars because they NEED them. Normal people don't buy stuff simply because it's at a good price...

I'm sure that someone with the power use statistics from (let's say) Ontario Hydro and knowledge of the amount of draw that would be required by an EV for an overnight charge could quickly calculate the maximum number of vehicles that could be charged at night with the current power supply we have. I suspect that it would be a healthy number. TonyGuitar, that's your cue.

T.G. spoke (above) and he didn't provide jack squat in terms of support... Sucks to be you...

Posted by: Richard Evans at May 9, 2007 7:42 PM

RE:

There is a whole blogsite provided for you Richard. Check the links provided.

You mistakenly presume that because our views differ that you are suffering hatred or persecution or something.

Not at all. You are welcome to have an opposing opinion. Because you do gives me no reason to use terms like *idiot* or *sucks.*

Remember, your trip to Saskatoon would not advance by more than 3 inches if there was a blast with Iran. All refined gas and diesel would be held for Military, Police and emergency use.

A hybrid would also be useless as gas in the tank is required to avoid damaging the hybrid system.

The GM Volt EV could take you past Saskatoon and on to Halifax as it comes with a 3 cylinder motor just for charging. [ not a hybrid].

You could take any EV to the east coast if you had a little Honda Generator in the trunk.
Get one that uses diesel or ideally, bio-fuel. = TG


Posted by: TG at May 10, 2007 5:36 AM

Richard,

Nobody is talking about mandating anything with electric vehicles. All we're saying is that the technology exists today to make these vehicles viable for the 90% of Canadians that drive under 100 kilometres per day. For everybody else, a standard gasoline/diesel vehicle or hybrid would still be the right choice.

I don't think EVs have anything to do with liberalism/elitism. It's a technology, not an ideology. I can't speak for TG or Eeyore, but I vote Conservative. I haven't drunk the Global Warming cool-aid.

Electric motor-vehicle propulsion just makes sense, on a variety of levels that have already been laid out. If you need to keep driving a gas vehicle because it meets your needs - fine. It's not like we're talking about replacing 100% of one type of vehicle with another. I'd just like to have the option of buying an EV. I bet gas prices will probably come down too, if enough people start driving them.

Posted by: Belisarius at May 10, 2007 9:04 AM
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