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July 8, 2006

Bush's Economic Woes Continue

The power of tax cuts;

Did you know that just over the past 11 quarters, dating back to the June 2003 Bush tax cuts, America has increased the size of its entire economy by 20 percent? In less than three years, the U.S. economic pie has expanded by $2.2 trillion, an output add-on that is roughly the same size as the total Chinese economy, and much larger than the total economic size of nations like India, Mexico, Ireland, and Belgium.

As he points out, you're probably reading it here first.

More - Ed Morrissey notes some accuse Kudlow of "overplayed a winning hand". He makes further points worth checking out.

The numbers, adjusted for inflation, are already compelling. The eleven-quarter period that Kudlow highlights ranks well in the last quarter-century. The Clinton administration had a run of such periods, starting in 1998Q1 through 2000Q3 (with each quarter showing this type of growth). Reagan had a similar run, between 1984Q3 and 1986Q3.

As King Banaian pointed out during our radio show, however, the Bush administration's run has some remarkable differences. First, neither Clinton nor Reagan had a shooting war going on during these periods, allowing for more stable economic environments. Second, oil prices dropped during these periods for Clinton and Reagan, while they have increased considerably during the Bush expansion. Yet the Bush expansion, fuelled by the tax cuts, has shown remarkable stability and consistency. In the past eleven quarters, the only one below an annual rate of growth of 3% was 2005Q4, which reflected the economic impact of Hurricane Katrina. Also, we should recall that the Clinton era coincides with the dot-com bubble and the bulk of the investor frauds of Enron, Global Crossings, and Worldcom.


h/t

Posted by Kate at July 8, 2006 10:37 AM
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Comments

So what does that have to do with tax cuts? During the Clinton non tax cutting years the US economy did as good or better.

Posted by: Robert McClelland at July 8, 2006 11:11 AM

Robert:
Facts and data?

Posted by: Lee at July 8, 2006 11:23 AM

Robert, you are factually incorrect. The economy under Clinton really took off after 1996, that was after a MASSIVE cut in Capital gains tax rates. Yes President Clinton and Secretary Rubin signed into law a Republican massive tax cut for the "Rich", and the economy soared.

Posted by: kyle8 at July 8, 2006 11:31 AM

Don't ever expect the lib/left to understand tax cuts. Their mindset is still take from the wealthy, keep whatever I can, and propose to help the less fortunate. Don't really do anything as our sheep may become aware of how things work, and then, poof, their goes our vote base.


Posted by: Western Canadian at July 8, 2006 11:32 AM

Here.
http://www.neatideas.com/data/data/GDP.htm

It should also be pointed out that in the past 11 quarters Bush has added about $1.2 trillion to the US debt. It's pretty easy to get good gdp growth when you're pumping that kind of dough into the economy.

Posted by: Robert McClelland at July 8, 2006 11:35 AM

"What does that have to do with tax cuts?" Robert says.

Everything.

You will also refuse to believe that when taxes are cut, government revenue goes UP, not down, as liberals would dream. It happens all the time. The common sense revolution under Mike Harris cut taxes and revenue broke records and continued to climb, allowing increased spending without deficit (the exact polar opposite to what is happening in Ontario now - decreased spending, lower revenue, higher deficits -everybody loses). The economy of Ontario is now just stagnating under McWimpy, chomping at the bit for explosive growth, waiting and hoping for the next conservative government to cut it loose. Everybody wins, even Robert.

Posted by: Chazz at July 8, 2006 11:42 AM

Don't ever expect the lib/left to understand tax cuts.

Hey, we're not the ones who believe that when an individual spends a dollar it has some magical effect that doesn't apply to when the government spends a dollar. Tax cuts do nothing for an economy just like transfering your pocket change from one pocket to the other--which is basically all a tax cut is--does not increase the amount that's there.

Posted by: Robert McClelland at July 8, 2006 11:43 AM

Yes...I can see where Robert is right......a Government spending $2 Billion on a worthless gun registry has EXACTLY the same effect on the economy as $2 Billion worth of tax cuts invested in growing businesses, hiring employees, creating/selling products.......Guffaw, Guffaw.

Posted by: Nemo2 at July 8, 2006 11:51 AM

When people/business spend a dollar, it is usually done with a thought to recieving good value. In other words MONEY FOR SOMETHING THAT WORKS. When gov'ts spend our taxpayers money it is often for something that DOESN"T WORK. A la MIRIBELLE AIRPORT, ADSCAM, PETRO CANADA, UNITED NATIONS, KYOTO,.......

Posted by: B. Hoax Aware at July 8, 2006 11:56 AM

Robert
When an individual spends a dollar, he or she gets to decide how it best benefits him or her without the nanny state "directing" it to some "worthwhile" purpose. It may seem odd to you but if we all act in our own self interest society actually advances economically at a superior rate than if we have centralized planning. Further, in most instances, the individual created the wealth whereas the government simply stole it through taxation effectively destroying wealth. I am not denying that society requires some level of taxaton but there are certain types of taxation that are counter productive to economic growth (capital taxes, income taxes). Economies that keep these types of taxes to a minimum get the advantage of an expanding economy that benefits all of its citizens in the long run. Economies that put in place tax policies that punish the productive get a stagant or shrinking economy. For good examples of this compare Saskatchewan and Alberta or France and Ireland. Try reading Milton Friedman "Free to Choose" or Ayn Rand "The Virtue of Selfishness". It might provide you with a more realistic perspective.

Posted by: Canard at July 8, 2006 11:59 AM

And where did that $2 billion go, Nemo2? Oh right, it went to businesses that grew because of it and to employees. Spending is spending, rube, regardless of who spends it. All tax cuts do is transfer spending power from the government to individuals and corporations. And no credible economist (one who isn't either a leftwing or rightwing shill) has ever backed the absurd claim that tax cuts grow the economy.

But hey, go ahead and continue to believe in the magical properties of tax cuts and we'll continue to laugh at you because of it.

Posted by: Robert McClelland at July 8, 2006 12:00 PM

The only one thats getting laughed at is you robert.

Posted by: FREE at July 8, 2006 12:05 PM

In the world of Robert McClelland, the concept of "wealth creation" does not exist. There are only finite resources called "money" and so long as the government is busy taking "money" from people who have lots and "spending" it .... on anybody who will vote for the people who will take money from people who have lots, all is right with the world.

It's certainly worked everywhere it's been tried.

It's why the standard of living in Cuba is the envy of the world. It's why Saskatchewan is a shining beacon drawing thousands of Albertans to her each and every year.

Robert, why do you keep torturing yourself in a society ruined by capitalism, when Zimbabwe is just crying out for leaders such as yourself?

Posted by: Kate at July 8, 2006 12:22 PM

As always the lie is in the spin. The US economy is expanding on CREDIT, which is a very tenuous expansion to say the least. The US Dollar deflation has pretty much wiped out any gains the individual may have seen though tax cuts. The Government is debt financing worse than a Dem administration and still the partisan bliders remain on the cheer leaders for this dismally inept Bush regime.

There is no way Bush II has a traditional conservative economic recort/impact with his economic policies. Tax cuts amout to nothing compared to the devaluation of the dollar...a dollar devaluated by debt finacing economic expansion and federal projects.

Bush has created a 3 trillion dollar increase in the national debt by financing an expensive foreign policy which spends 40% of debt financed credit in foreign nations under US occupation....that beats the hell out of slick Willie's global handouts...the Fed has had the printing presses rolling out the currency to satisfy a domestic economy that is expanding on credit and is heavily debt leveraged.....so we see the inflationary effect peel back the US dollar's value on world markets...devalued dollaer+ zero gains from tax cuts to the consumer.

The last regime that tried expanding real tangable wealth by printing more money saw Germans taking a wheelbarroe full of Deutchmarks to the store for a loaf of bread....What Makes the US Fed think they are immune to printed currency devaluation

Add to all this morass that the size of a credit contraction needed to stabilize the US dollar's free fall and the US debt leveraged economy will likely be of the size of the same credit/currency contraction of 1929....but in increments....Bush economics have set the US up for a decade long recession by a contracting cycle neccessary to stabilze US currency and debt.

Posted by: W L Mackenzie redux at July 8, 2006 12:23 PM

2300 dollars will buy Robert a one way ticket to Harare Zimbabwe.

Posted by: rebarbarian at July 8, 2006 12:32 PM

Robert,

You are talking through your hat! It isn't that Clinton and Rubin didn't do good things for the economy. But they were neo-Liberals who cut welfare, cut taxes [after raising them]and engaged in foreign wars. They are also responsible for an awful recession after the market bubble. Without stimulus, like tax cuts, the downturn would have been much more painful [like the early nineties]when W learned his lessons from his father's failures.

But I don't know why I bother. Just go to a lib blog where everyone will agree with you,

Posted by: jrb at July 8, 2006 12:38 PM

I guess Milton Friedman's Nobel prize was given to him because he was not credible. http://www.hoover.org/bios/friedman/
Your assertions are not backed up with any facts. Your understanding of basic economics is not even rudimentary.
http://www.econlib.org/LIBRARY/Columns/y2003/Wesburytaxcuts.html

Posted by: Canard at July 8, 2006 12:39 PM

"And where did that $2 billion go, Nemo2? Oh right, it went to businesses that grew because of it and to employees"

Hey Robert,the gun registry employs 200 people.Not a great return on the 2 billion.And we don't know if the 2 billion went to businesses because even the auditor general couldn't trace it because if the Librano$ scams.

As for tax cuts,if people have more money they spend more,its that simple.Even a lefty like you should have no problem understanding that.When people spend more,they do so on more goods and services,which in turn bumps up manufacturing and businesses offering services,i.e. home improvements,which again multiplies because the ones providing the service in turn buy the goods to do the renovations.

All this has a cumulative effect,the governments haul in more money in higher personal and goods taxes.This money is then available for things like health care and infrastructure.

What its not meant for are scams like the sponsorship scandal,gun registry,etc,which were nothing more than kickbacks to friends and the Liberal party.

Its time to get over the fact the Liberals lost the election,and the people of Canada now have a leader and party the makes good decisions for the people of Canada,not decisions that are in the best interest of their party.

Posted by: Paulb at July 8, 2006 12:42 PM

the only way Clinton would have helped the American economy is if he had paid Monica for her heads-up services.

Posted by: Fred at July 8, 2006 12:43 PM

And here is a beauty from the NYT, of all places:

Surprising Jump in Tax Revenues Curbs U.S. Deficit
By EDMUND L. ANDREWS

WASHINGTON, July 8 — An unexpectedly steep rise in tax revenues from corporations and the wealthy is driving down the budget deficit this year, even though spending has climbed sharply because of the war in Iraq and the cost of hurricane relief.

Robert, if it news in the NYT it must be true! Right?

Posted by: jrb at July 8, 2006 12:44 PM

BTW: Taking advise on the economy from paid off investment cheer leadeers like Kudlow is not a very safe practice if you want to keep a stable investment portfolio....We need to be reminded that Kudlow took $50,000 from Enron to sing irts praises to potential investers and he was one of the few share holders that dumped Enron stock before the implosion....strangely he never advised against ENRON stock until Lay's shenanegans were common MSM knowledge.

If Ludlow says Bush has managed the economy well...best get your assets in gold.

Posted by: W L Mackenzie redux at July 8, 2006 12:50 PM

Warning.


My Blahg » LEADERSHIP ENVY
"**** The Jews” - Robert Mclelland. Should we give people that kind of freedom? ... P. Why dont you run up and down the street yelling **** the jews? ...
myblahg

Posted by: maz2 at July 8, 2006 12:51 PM

Here's a nice little chart showing the growth of the US economy since Independence.
http://www.csua.berkeley.edu/~darin/images/lnGdp.png
As you can see it's pretty much been a steady rate of growth regardless of whether or not taxes have been raised, lowered or kept the same. Game, set and match, rubes.

In the world of Robert McClelland, the concept of "wealth creation" does not exist.

That's it, Kate. Move the goalposts when it's proven how ignorant you are.

Posted by: Robert McClelland at July 8, 2006 12:52 PM

People like Robert and most other socialists are stuck in the Marxist/Malthusian economic mindset of the early to mid nineteenth century. They see economics as a zero-sum game and concepts like added value (beyond labour input) are foreign to them. Command economics is alive and well in their minds -- just don't ask them to actually live under it. And by the way, why do socialist nations need barriers to keep people in, while the capitalist nations need barriers to keep people out? Just curious.

Posted by: DrD at July 8, 2006 12:57 PM

Robert: So in your perfect world the government should keep increasing taxes until they take 100%! That way, the simpletons will be wholly dependant on the state to provide food, shelter, entertainment, etc. Just like Cuba and North Korea, those bastions of economic prosperity!

Get over yourself. Communism failed a long time ago.

Posted by: trevor at July 8, 2006 1:03 PM

sigh.....

aaaaand what did the bushists DO with all the cash flowing hither and thither? you know, the taxes they earn on the now vibrant economy?

er, jacked the total debt to a record high.

squandered it on the war in iraq to the tune of some 10 billion a day. (sure could buy a lot of gas powered generators for THAT kind of pocket change sose the avg iraq would have SOME source of electricity till the power grid is fully operational...) etc etc

spin spin spin oooo, Im getting dizzy with all this republicanist spin spin spin.

p.s. dubya aint got the smarts to figure this out. he's a frat boy whut got lucky. a clucking parrot reciting his script handed to him by his 'advisors'.

oh, and mr mclelland, do you have any study or experience in economics?

'spending is spending no matter where' etc

not so !!!

the hard reality is there are 2 sides to spending. the spender and the spendee.

it doesnt particularly matter who the spender is. foreign investment, pension funds, consumers, etc. the key is what the spendee then does with it.

in the case of the gun registry ..... we will never know. my suspicion and grounds for protesting and opposing the registry I still view it as a conduit for tax dollars into the pockets of lieberal supporters masquerading as service providers propping up the registry. a bit of it then goes to paying their staff etc. lots of it goes in their OWN pockets for vacations, lavish lifestyle etc, all the perks. and still more goes back into the coffers of the lieberal party in the form of campaign contributions.

BUT, if the spendee is some retail operation dealing with ruthless competition, most of the dollars go into buying new stock, paying sales people etc etc.

so, it matters a great deal WHERE the spending is directed. your kind of logic is the same that supports farm subsidies for tobacco production. 'good for the local economy' bla bla bla. ya, and its also good for the companies that provide services to the hospitals where the cancer patients go and funeral home employees etc etc.

take some economics theory before you post any more leftist liberalist nonsense.


Posted by: Robert J BA BSc at July 8, 2006 1:12 PM

my two cents :

http://www.karenselick.com/CL0102.html

Posted by: Atwood at July 8, 2006 1:19 PM

ahhh communism . . . we pretend to work, the government pretends to pay us.

Oh I so long for the line-ups for a loaf of bread and my annual shoe allotment as determined by Central Planning. . . nothing like the good old days.

Posted by: Fred at July 8, 2006 1:25 PM

I promised myself that I would not feed the troll today so I won't.

Hey Robert J. letters, some good points. There is hope for you yet ;-)

Posted by: Texas Canuck, CD1 at July 8, 2006 1:26 PM

Spend a 16 hour day cooking up a useless database system on your Mac.

Sell it to an Allan Rock insider for say 20-30 million.

Sit back and watch it crash.

Hire friends and relatives to get it back up and running.

Repeat on a cost plus basis until you can no longer keep a straight face.

Leave for an island tax haven so that none of your dollars get spent on rounds 2 and 3.


Posted by: Red Dodge at July 8, 2006 1:27 PM

Kate:

Here are some widely accepted US GDP growth rates from the US gov for 03, 04, 05 and the first quarter of 06 (we'll give the US the benefit of a full 13 quarters for this one):
2.7% 4.2% 3.5% and for 06 (F01) 5.6%.

Compounding these year over year gives you a total US GDP increase of 12.3% for the those full 3 1/4 years. Respectable, but nowhere near 20%.

The world bank just released its figures for the total US GDP, and came up with a current figure of 12.46 trillion (USD), which, if you use the above figure of 12.3% growth gives you a starting point of 11.09 trillion USD at the beginning of 2003.

The difference is a much smaller 1.36 trillion dollar increase.

Not to throw cold water on the liberal media hatefest (i'm no fan of it either) but these are widely available figures. Why? Because this information is vital to world markets and investors. There's hardly a conspiracy against the US or anyone else here.

sources:
http://inhome.rediff.com/money/2006/jul/08india.htm

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/us.html#Econ

http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrel/gdpnewsrelease.htm

Something that may of interest to anyone commenting here, is that new studies show there a strong correlation between corporate tax rates (in the US they are amongst the highest) and relative wage raises. That is, a 1.0% reduction in corporate taxes leads to about a 0.8% wage increase. Oh and it works vice versa.

Case in point: the Celtic Tiger, Ireland...currently @ 12% corporate tax rate and experiencing exploding wage rates/wealth.

Good times.

Posted by: Patrick at July 8, 2006 1:38 PM

Red Dodge,

I can't remember where I saw this, but recently there was some mention of $250 million in IT costs for the gun registry.

I've asked before, and I'll ask again: can anyone in the private sector remember being involved in an IT project that cost that much? That cost $25 mil?

You're right - a semi-decent developer with Oracle or DB2 could put together a gun registry db for peanuts and then sell it to Liberal morons for millions.

Posted by: Mississauga Matt at July 8, 2006 1:39 PM

Exactly Matt.

Consider that we can track every bull/cow/calf in this country without a fraction of a 2 billion dollars budget.

The whole mess is the biggest theft in history.

Go ahead Robert.Tell us again how its good for the economy.

Posted by: Red Dodge at July 8, 2006 2:02 PM

Hmmmm...the first thing the Campbell government did after taking over from the NDP was institute a massive tax cut. BC's economomy is now smoking hot, a big change from the dreadful economic situation we had under the NDP.

Ahhh...it's probably just a coincidence, right Robert?

Posted by: Bruce at July 8, 2006 2:15 PM

Yes, and coincidentally, increased revenues in Saskatchewan took off only after Calvert finally threw in the towel and lowered oil and gas royalties to allow Big Oil to rape the province of its respources.

Posted by: Kate at July 8, 2006 2:22 PM

This is not good news. Oughta be a law against this. Ver bad news from Noojerkslimes. ...-


Surprising Jump in Tax Revenues Curbs U.S. Deficit [Democrats sadden.......]

New York Times
Surprising Jump in Tax Revenues Curbs U.S. Deficit By EDMUND L. ANDREWS WASHINGTON, July 8 — An unexpectedly steep rise in tax revenues from corporations and the wealthy is driving down the budget deficit this year, even though spending has climbed sharply because of the war in Iraq and the cost of hurricane relief. On Tuesday, White House officials are expected to announce that the tax receipts will be about $250 billion above last year's levels and that the deficit will be about $100 billion less than what they projected six months ago. The rising tide in tax payments has...
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1662409/posts

Posted by: maz2 at July 8, 2006 2:27 PM

If the private sector were doing a project like the long-gun registry, for itself, it would have cost a few million dollars. There's a full analysis here: tinyurl.com/k3dvm

Cutting taxes is not like transferring money from one pocket to the other. It's like not transferring money from the taxpayers' pockets to the statists' incinerator (cleverly disguised as a pig trough).

Posted by: Vitruvius at July 8, 2006 2:28 PM

Robert, not a hypo, but a concrete comparison:

North Korea (state directed economy): no real middle class, nearly the entire country is poverty striken

U.S.A. (free market economy), massive middle class, with relatively small poor population, and by "poor" that doesn't mean masses of people starving in the streets, like in N. Korea, it means T.V. with basic cable instead of the full satellite package, a small subsidized apartment and not a house, state run hospitals instead of a private clinic ect.

Sorry Robert, but your socialist utopia, is the proverbial road to hell paved with good intentions.

Posted by: mitch at July 8, 2006 2:56 PM

And just think about it Harper is over there right now learning all of Bush's secrets.

Oh the horror, how will we ever manage to deal with the curse of greater wealth?

Posted by: Farmer Joe at July 8, 2006 3:05 PM

As US President Regan once said: "How do you tell a Communist? Well, it's someone who reads Marx and Lenin. And how do you tell an anti-Communist? It's someone who understands Marx and Lenin."

Posted by: Vitruvius at July 8, 2006 3:09 PM

Paying taxes to the government is kind of like paying for maintenance on your car... just think of the money you can save by not paying for that pesky, useless maintenance: no more car washes-that’s what the rain is for; no more oil changes-as long as that slippery stuff is still in your engine it should work just fine; tires should be ok as long they hold air; brakes don’t need any work until the car doesn’t stop anymore; etc. No doubt your car would be just as good as the one that had all that useless maintenance done to it, eh?

Posted by: lberia at July 8, 2006 3:35 PM

lberia, I might need maintenance to keep my car running in fine shape but if the maintainer charges me to empty my ashtray (and I don't smoke!) or polish the whitewalls or even wash the car, then that sir is being too liberal(with MY money).You gotta give the car owner some responsibility for their wheels.

BTW, I'd also be pissed to have to pay for part of your car maintenance because you don't make as much as I do.

Your analogy dude.

Posted by: Texas Canuck, CD1 at July 8, 2006 3:48 PM

lberia, I might need maintenance to keep my car running in fine shape but if the maintainer charges me to empty my ashtray (and I don't smoke!) or polish the whitewalls or even wash the car, then that sir is being too liberal(with MY money).You gotta give the car owner some responsibility for their wheels.

BTW, I'd also be pissed to have to pay for part of your car maintenance because you don't make as much as I do.

Your analogy dude.

Posted by: Texas Canuck at July 8, 2006 3:49 PM

Appologies for double posting... fat fingers.

Posted by: Texas Canuck at July 8, 2006 3:50 PM

Dont confuse paying taxes with buying a billion dollars worth of sand at $900.00 a gram.

Or if you prefer, bend over and allow me to do the maintenance on your car for a year.

Posted by: Red Dodge at July 8, 2006 3:56 PM

"Paying taxes to the government is kind of like paying for maintenance on your car"

lberia, if your car costs 50% of your income to maintain, you might want to look at getting a better car, or if you're driving a Ferrari, a better income.

Posted by: Kathryn at July 8, 2006 5:40 PM

The last regime that tried expanding real tangable wealth by printing more money saw Germans taking a wheelbarroe full of Deutchmarks to the store for a loaf of bread

And yet, the inflation rate in the USA remains low, how do you explain that genius? BTW you misspelled
tangible, and wheelbarrow. Is that what passes for education nowadays?

Posted by: kyle8 at July 8, 2006 5:42 PM

I suppose I should have expected my analogy to be taken out of context. I wasn’t referring to emptying ashtrays or tuning a Ferrari, but necessary maintenance. It’s just that some people have different ideas as to what is necessary and what isn’t. This holds true for auto maintenance as well as for tax cuts. Sometimes car owners think that they’re smarter than the engineers and try to save money by avoiding the “unnecessary” stuff, saving money in the short term but paying for it in the long term.

Posted by: lberia at July 8, 2006 6:32 PM

lberia, you miss the point. Taxes were cut yet revenues have gone way up. This would be like getting your oil changes done at Mr Lube instead of the dealership: you have the same maintenance but there is an extra 30 bucks in YOUR pocket.

Posted by: trevor at July 8, 2006 6:37 PM

We can engineer cars, Iberia, but we can't "engineer" society. I agree that "some people have different ideas as to what is necessary and what isn’t", and that's why, in a pluralistic society, the state should exercise the maximum possible restraint in pre-deciding for people what is necessary and what isn't.

By the way; what's the one thing a Jaguar can't pass on the highway? A service station! (And I like Jaguars, at least aesthetically ;-)

Posted by: Vitruvius at July 8, 2006 6:44 PM

Life's like that, Steve. Always has been, always will be.

Posted by: Vitruvius at July 8, 2006 6:45 PM

And who ARE the 'American Research Group'? Their website gives zero indication of their principals, backers or personnel........their address might be telling though...'Elm Street'...quelle nightmare.

Posted by: Nemo2 at July 8, 2006 6:57 PM

I disagree, Steve. In order to win elections, in a democracy, it is not necessary to get the support of a strict majority, it is only necessary to get the support of a plurality. In order to do that, you need to get the support of the, as you put it, "top" people. This is true even in grass-roots operations. And of course, in non-democracies, "top" is even more narrowly defined.

Posted by: Vitruvius at July 8, 2006 7:19 PM

The GDP includes imports.

Now, can anyone tell us what has jumped by more than 100% over the last 5 years?

Posted by: Anon at July 8, 2006 7:32 PM

I remember when Paul Martin as PM, arrogantly said: " Canadians don't deserve a Tax break".

Do you?

In other words these, people who are in the 99% to 98% of the highest incomes in the land. Paid mostly by you & me. Have the audacity to tell us they have more right to our money than we do. I mean what if we decided to just take there’s?

Another thing. How in heavens name do these society flakes even understand how we live. Than decide policies on there own economic experience. Thinking that how they live is the standard. Liberal lunatics.

The Persons at least forced a satrap to live as a peasant in a hut for a year. He had to grow his own food. Anyone caught helping was executed. Even they understood one has to have some empathy with those governed. Not so our lefties.

More Socialist madness. By the way leftie. Who will you steal from once all your victims have been plundered?

With no producers, just users. Where will you get production of goods with no incentive?

Posted by: Revnant Dream at July 8, 2006 7:34 PM

That would be Persians

Posted by: Revnant Dream at July 8, 2006 7:36 PM

Vitruvius:

"...the state should exercise the maximum possible restraint in pre-deciding for people what is necessary and what isn't."

I agree. Unfortunately, it normally seems as if the lobby group with the loudest voice/most money tends to get it's way.

"By the way; what's the one thing a Jaguar can't pass on the highway? A service station! (And I like Jaguars, at least aesthetically.)"

:>D

Posted by: lberia at July 8, 2006 7:40 PM

Oops, sorry Kate, I thought Steve was back officially, and I was trying to demonstrate gracious behaviour. Then, after posting, I saw his drive-by in the "Party of Ungrownups" thread. Now I understand.

Posted by: Vitruvius at July 8, 2006 7:42 PM

Editors note: Steve's appearance here was in defiance of my notice that he was going to take a couple days break. He's just made his expulsion permanent. Ignore his posts - I can and will mass delete anything he writes, should he find yet another isp to access the site from.

Posted by: Kate at July 8, 2006 7:43 PM

Should clarify:
GDP = Consumption (stuff we buy including energy products) +
Investment (includes foreign investment to service the approx $1 trillion of new US debt) +
Govt Purchases (includes close to $300B for Iraq and Afghanistan and other huge govt expenditure increases) +
Net Exports (US is actually running huge trade deficits; so my import comments affects the "Cons" side of the equation only)

Therefore, the size of the economy expanding - while it may be factually correct - does not mean much if it is largely due to increased borrowing and spending.

However, it does make for some sort of election year slogan. There is not an election in the US again, is there?

Posted by: Anon at July 8, 2006 7:45 PM

I think, Iberia, that Loudness is part of "top" (as I put it in those other comments above), but it's a veneer. Not to be a Machiavellian or a conspiracy theorist, but I do think there is a degree to which those who are actually in a position to make things happen tend to discount the gratuitously loud.

Money is, indeed, also a part of "top", because money is a proxy for time multiplied by market value (for some value of market, not necessarily free), multiplied by effectiveness. And there's money in ideas too, be they philosophical, political, scientific, &c. (Since economics is about this market, I think I'm still on topic.)

There is, though, a third major factor, that being quiet, low-budget, behind the scene's work, which is often typified by grass-roots operations. And good for them too.

So that's why, I think, that those with the loudest voice, most money, and/or effective organization (along with other factors) tend to "get their way", as you put it. In the vernacular, they are good at it.

Posted by: Vitruvius at July 8, 2006 8:05 PM

> There is not an election in the US again, is there?

Yes. Every two years, the United States holds midterm, or Congressional, elections, when the members of the House of Representatives, and one third of the Senate, are elected. Every four years, it holds Presidential elections, concurrent with the Congressionals.

It has been hilarious reading what some Canadians trying to understand the American fiscal and political processes, consider "wise" advice for the same. McClellend, particularly, is a hoot.

Kate: Does he get paid to be the fool?

Posted by: taubetapi at July 8, 2006 8:42 PM

I realize it's rude to answer questions directed to someone else, but if I may, based on my understanding, there is no pay involved, TauBetaPi, he is strictly amature. And thank you for noting "some" Canadians, I appreciate your acknowledgement that other Canadians do indeed understand the American fiscal and political processes, perhaps better than some Americans. After all, some of us, arguably a majority (if you discount the doom-mongers and fraud-artists), are friends of America.

Posted by: Vitruvius, ΔΥ at July 8, 2006 9:14 PM

Yup the market is doing great.LOL
The article is called “Cheney’s betting on bad news” and provides an account of where Cheney has socked away more than $25 million. While the figures may be estimates, the investments are not. According to Tom Blackburn of the Palm Beach Post, Cheney has invested heavily in “a fund that specializes in short-term municipal bonds, a tax-exempt money market fund and an inflation protected securities fund. The first two hold up if interest rates rise with inflation. The third is protected against inflation.”

I guess thats why VP Chaney has dumped another (estimated) $10 to $25 million in a European bond fund which tells us that he is counting on a steadily weakening dollar. So, while working class Americans are loosing ground to inflation and rising energy costs, Darth Cheney will be enhancing his wealth in “Old Europe”. As Blackburn sagely notes, “Not all ‘bad news’ is bad for everybody.”

He doesn't seem to have the confidence as you in the future.
informationclearinghouse.info/article13851.htmIs

Posted by: Mr. Macgoo at July 8, 2006 9:30 PM

Correct, Macgoo, "not all bad news is bad for everybody." For example, there is currently a fad for people to run around warning of the risk of cholesterol. Alas, my metabolism flushes, rather than acculmulates, cholesterol, so even if the doom-mongers and fraud-artists turn out to be correct, it's still not bad news for me.

People are like that, they're similar, but different (ya, ya, spare me the politically correct platitudes). As John Stuart Mill said:

"Neither one person, nor any number of persons, is warranted in saying to another human creature of ripe years that he shall not do with his life for his own benefit what he chooses to do with it. All errors he is likely to commit against advice and warning are far outweighed by the evil of allowing others to constrain him to do what they deem his good."

Let Cheney place his bets. Bulls and bears are always in disagreement. His life is not mine. Or yours.

Posted by: Vitruvius at July 8, 2006 10:24 PM

Vitruvius, ΔΥ/DU -

I'm glad you were able to take my comment in good spirit. I hope you can see my amusement in a Dipper canadian presuming to advise others on fiscal and political policies.

I read Kate's blog (and other canadian blogs) to try to understand the Canadian mindset. While I'll probably never have that figured out to my satisfaction, I have to depend on my ability to make forecasts on certain realities in other parts of this planet. Canada is one of them. Until very recently, I have been steering clear of it.

Seriously: Can anyone tell me, when is the next Canadian election? What has to happen for that to occur, and why? The whole minority/majority thing you people have is very confusing. Also: why don't you elect your Senators?

Just wondering.

Posted by: taubetapi at July 8, 2006 10:31 PM

Mr. Macgoo:
"According to Tom Blackburn of the Palm Beach Post, Cheney has invested heavily in “a fund that specializes in short-term municipal bonds, a tax-exempt money market fund and an inflation protected securities fund."

Mr. Macgoo, actually if Tom Blackburn is correct, it would appear that Mr. Cheney is a conservative investor trying to protect his assets against inflation.

It is not uncommon for high net worth investors to avoid the stock market, in as much as they are more concerned about protecting their principle than about trying to make more money.

Additionally, Cheney needs to avoid appearances of conflicts of interest, and therefore holding stocks could be misconstrued. People could think he had favoritism, which is why he divested his portfolio of Halliburton and other stocks when he became Vice President.

If he really had any desire to capitalize on a downturn in the American stock market, he would simply buy puts against certain stocks, or more simply, buy mutual funds that short the American stock market. Rydex has several funds that provide this service, and anyone with a small amount of money can do well investing in them during market declines.

Bonds that he holds in Europe are simply a matter of diversification. While my portfolio is primarily in North America, I hold mutual funds that invest in Europe and the Pacific rim. This is very common investment practice, widely recommended by almost everyone in the investment markets.

So in conclusion I will simply say that everything about this hypothetical portfolio that may be Cheney's is simply very typical of an elderly, hign net worth investor who is more concerned about protecting principle than about making gains. Frankly, it would be hard for someone with knowledge of investment markets to come to any other conclusion.

Posted by: Greg (outside Dallas) at July 8, 2006 10:47 PM

well texas c, I acknowledge the compliment.

I calls 'em like I see's 'em.

I DO have economics training and my brother-in-law whom I would chit chat with at the time went on to acquire a phd in international trade.

economics truly is an art as well as a science. the economy is constantly in flux and there are a gazzilion variables. very unpredictable. the one truism is that 'things' have a natural tendency towards equilibrium in economics. one of the overriding phenomena that MUST be considered despite ideology. in 40 years of watching the beast rampage over the countryside, I have concluded the left is far too obsessed with ideology to ever warrant leadership role.

as far as my analysis on the topic at hand, NO ONE is safe.

ALL politishuns of ALL stripes are fair game.

LOL !!!

Posted by: Robert J BA BSc at July 8, 2006 11:19 PM

ΔΥ to ΤβΠ - do you copy, over? (Ok, ok, I'm baiting the tin-foil hats', sorry Kate).

The next federal Canadian election is not at a fixed date. The upper limit is something like one election every five years or so, but that so rarely happens I can't even remember the exact limit. Interestingly, Prime Minister Harper has proposed establishing fixed election dates (modulo confidence motions as described below), and there is now a debate on that matter among the citizenry.

Normally, the party holding the plurality in the House of Commons calls an election when, in their judgment, it is the best possible time between now and the limit for them to do so, for the purpose of being re-elected.

However, when there is a minority government (a plurality holding less than a strict majority), as is currently the case, and as was the case in the previous government, it is possible for the opposition parties to pool their votes to defeat the government, but only on votes for Bills (motions for pending Acts, or Statutes) that are deemed to be "Matters of Confidence".

Acts that are budgetary, that is to say, which allocate the government's spending plans, are deemed to be Matters of Confidence. So if a budget statute motion on the floor is defeated by a vote in the house, the government is defeated. You can see why this doesn't happen with strict majority governments.

Interestingly, the government, especially a minority government, can itself declare a vote on a motion to be a matter of confidence, in effect "daring" the opposition to defeat the motion, and thus the government, thus forcing an election, which may less than interesting to an opposition which does not see itself in the position to fight the battle to gain seats, which is roughly the case in Canada now. Prime Minister Harper has threatened this card, but to the best of my knowledge he has not played it (at least, yet). It's a dangerous gambit, because (believe it or not) most citizens want the government to do their job, not run around having elections to gain seats.

We don't elect our senators for something very broadly along the lines of why, originally, the senators of the United States of America were not elected (at least, by popular vote). But I've already gone on too long (can you tell I held an office of Parliamentarian in an organization when I was in university, decades ago), rather than just reading my opinion, you might like to further peruse: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Canada

Posted by: Vitruvius at July 8, 2006 11:54 PM

ΔΥ -

I thank you for the effort to type all that.

As I understand, though, isn't there some sort of proposal for fixed dates for elections, a repesentative government, and an elected Senate?

Posted by: taubetapi at July 9, 2006 12:34 AM

Its like every time I'm at the Peace Arch border crossing 2 to 7 hour wait south bound and 3 to 6 minutes north bound, go figure.

Posted by: FREE at July 9, 2006 12:39 AM

Ahem. Canada's government is a representative democracy, by all modern standards of language taxonomy, just like the United States of America. We all get to vote for a federal representative, in ridings, just like districts (if I recall correctly) in our good neighbours to the south. One adult, one vote, free and fair.

Yes, there are proposals for fixed dates for elections (I'll resist the urge to say "fixed elections" and mention some political party I'm not in favour of), and a senate elected by popular vote, with various proposals regarding the apportionment of seats in such a senate, but broadly speaking, along provincial equality lines, rather than along simple population, much as is the case with states in the US senate. Unfortunately, there are also those who think we should abolish the senate, which I think is a big mistake.

(On the other hand, your Electoral College mechanism, which works remarkably well in your situation, won't work in Canada, because there aren't enough independent federal jurisdictions.)

To oversimplify, federally, we get to vote for one member of parliament, and you get to vote for (oh oh, what are the correct numbers) one or two congressmen and senators each, and in addition to that, a independent executive (well, formally, and at least in theory, Ross Perot could have won.)

Canada is a Westminster Parliamentary Democracy, which is not based on the formal rebellion of ancestral monarchic traditions that you guys went through, although we are children of the Magna Carta, just like you, and some of us want more of the concept it represents in lore, just like some of you.

It is interesting, perhaps, to note, that because of the relative lack of checks and balances in Canada, as compared to the United States of America (which is a tough comparison, because you guys score first in that, in the world), within Canada, the Canadian Prime Minister has more power than the President of the United States does within the United States. On the other hand, he has much less power on the world stage, to a large degree because there's only 1/10th as many Canadians as there are Americans. If there were 300 million Canadians, we would play a different role.

I suspect a nontrivial number of Canadians would take great issue with me on this, but: I think that, in the family of nations, Canada is to the United States as a little sister is to a big brother. Australia and New Zealand are other siblings. India is a first cousin. Our mother is Britain, and our father is ancient Greece.

Just remember, America, don't disrespect your little sister. For a bunch of reasons, not the least of which is that we are from the same family, and we have more long-term recoverable oil than anyone else ;-)

[Not that you were, TauBetaPi.]

Posted by: Vitruvius at July 9, 2006 1:45 AM

> Canada's government is a representative democracy,

Ok, ok. Not what I meant at all.

> Canada is to the United States as a little sister is to a big brother. Australia and New Zealand are other siblings.

Having lived in all four of those countries you mentioned, I have to agree with your statements. I don't understand why others get so hostile when such things get spoken of so bluntly: all countries are not equals, but surely they are all different, and very definitely, all have their own problems. I've recently spend most of my time exploring various options in Australia, and have only lately turned a minor amount of my attention to Canada.

> you get to vote for (oh oh, what are the correct numbers) one or two congressmen and senators each

At the Federal level, each State elects two Senators, while each State also elects a number of House Representatives based upon its population (with a minimum of one). Congressional districts are gerrymandered on a whim - something that has upset me a great deal since I learned about it in the 5th grade. The same system is typically mirrored on the State/County level, too.

I'm of mixed mind about the Electoral College. It dates back to the need for each State to cast their votes for President, when technologically it was very difficult for anyone to travel to a place of assembly. Now, with modern developments such as phonelines and internet connections, perhaps each State's popular vote can be counted directly in the Preseidentail election.

Do you think that the government of Canada would be more responsive to needs of its citizens if it had a political system that did not depend on the situation where "... the party holding the plurality in the House of Commons calls an election when, in their judgment, it is the best possible time between now and the limit for them to do so, for the purpose of being re-elected..." ?

Doesn't this describe a system meant to be inherently unstabile at its beginnings, and that once it succeeds entrenching itself, creates a long termed mono-power-party system? Is there some value in this that I don't appreciate? I'm thinking of other former British possessions I've lived in, such as Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria. Maybe I'm missing something, but why would anyone wish for the consequent decades of empowerment for such a system of government? That simply sets the stage for widespread corruption, scandals, mismanagement of all kinds, does it not?

Thanks for your time.

Posted by: taubetapi at July 9, 2006 3:10 AM

Tau Beta Pi; The Westminster system evolved in England when the monarchy was still powerful enough to act as a counterweight to the power of Parliament. Canada, Australia, New Zealand et al, do not have a sitting monarch, rather they have a Governor General who sits in representation of the monarchy. The post is now largely ceremonial. Australia is exploring changes to this system as is Canada.

Posted by: rebarbarian at July 9, 2006 4:21 AM

Nice to see voodoo economics is alive and kicking. BTW Kate, wasn't one of the first acts of your hero Grant Devine the elimination of the gas tax? That certainly started Saskatchewan down the road to becoming a beacon of wealth and prosperity.

Posted by: maryjane at July 9, 2006 7:52 AM

Do you think that the government of Canada would be more responsive to needs of its citizens if it had a political system that did not depend on the situation where "... the party holding the plurality in the House of Commons calls an election when, in their judgment, it is the best possible time between now and the limit for them to do so, for the purpose of being re-elected..." ?

I don't know that it would be more responsive to our citizens, but it would prevent the shameless opportunism perpetrated by certain former governments, such as forcing an election when other parties are in disarray or amalgamating.

Doesn't this describe a system meant to be inherently unstabile at its beginnings, and that once it succeeds entrenching itself, creates a long termed mono-power-party system? Is there some value in this that I don't appreciate? I'm thinking of other former British possessions I've lived in, such as Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria. Maybe I'm missing something, but why would anyone wish for the consequent decades of empowerment for such a system of government? That simply sets the stage for widespread corruption, scandals, mismanagement of all kinds, does it not?

Respectively: yes; only if you're an ostrich or a part of the mono-power-party; your guess is as good as mine; and like there's no tomorrow. >=)

Thankfully, as was mentioned earlier, in keeping with trying to make government more accountable to our people (something that resonates incredibly strongly with the electorate due especially to the incredibly exploitative and scandalous strategies of the last federal government), our new government (as of February this year) is pushing to institute fixed election dates. However, unless I missed something, votes of non-confidence would still force the dissolution of parliament and subsequent election... Which I find to be a good thing, since in theory it should to some extent curtail election-year-only governance.

Thanks for your time.

My pleasure. Thanks for taking an interest. I'm sure any other questions or concerns you have would be happily tackled by any or many of this site's patrons.

Posted by: crosseyedcyclops at July 9, 2006 8:27 AM

Mornin' folks. I don't think, TauBetaPi, that the matter of fixed election dates is all that important; remember, there is a five year fixed upper limit on how long a government can go without calling an election. On the one hand, there is some room for some kinds of abuse in the system. On the other hand, we don't spend 1/3 of our lives in election campaigns (if I may caricature an effect that known election dates seems to produce in the US).

My understanding is that your electoral college has been effective in preventing both the largest states from bullying the smaller ones, and the smaller states from ganging up on the largest ones. But I realize you folks are always debating that yourselves, and many might disagree.

On the matter of how many representatives you get to vote for, I know that states each have two senators, and that congressmen are rep-by-pop, I just can't remember whether or not each citizen gets to vote for both state senate positions, or only one.

Plus, there's the matter of your state governments, most of which have separate executive (governor), senate, and congress representatives too, if I'm not mistaken. So you get to vote for at least a half-dozen representatives (not even counting judges, sheriffs, and dog-catchers ;-) We each get to vote for one federal member of parliament, and one provincial member of our province's legislature.

That makes it much harder for us to split roles between parties, which you folks are traditionally quite good at, and I think that's a shortcoming of the Westminster tradition.

Posted by: Vitruvius at July 9, 2006 11:45 AM

vitrivus makes a number of valid point here, among them the fact that canadians use far less time in political campaigns. we're not sure precisely when elections are to be held thus have to hold off until the official announcement.

amercuns can tell you 50 years from now when their elections are to be held, and the campaigning reflects this.

I do bemoan that after 200+ years you have devolved into a 2 party 'tweedle-dee tweedle-dum' selection.

shyt, theyre in a CONSTANT low level mode of 'campaigning'. blech.

the stuff about the magna carta is correct also.

I really wish we could ELECT our senators. maybe in my lifetime. maybe I'll run for a senate seat.

LOL !!!

went to a summer carnival on friday and challenged the 'guess your age' chap.

told him my facial features were not due to drink that in fact my brain cells remain intact. and that half of them are devoted to sarcasm.

LOL !!!

p.s. he got my age within ONE YEAR. very admirable.

Posted by: Robert J BA BSc at July 9, 2006 1:38 PM

"he got my age within ONE YEAR"......problem is....he was trying to guess your weight! ;-)

Posted by: Nemo2 at July 9, 2006 2:23 PM

A line of Mark Steyn's, I believe quoting or paraphrasing someone else, shows the difference between the two systems as something along the lines of "whenever there's an election in the U.S., it's a crisis; and in Britain whenever there's a crisis, there's an election."

BTW, can any other economist types out there do a critique of both Kramer and Capt. Ed and say who is more correct of the two?

Posted by: andycanuck at July 9, 2006 5:15 PM

P.S.
"In the wake of Enron founder Ken Lay’s death, Mark Steyn reminds us that NYT columnist Paul Krugman received $50,000 for serving on Enron’s advisory board."
(Via Tim Blair including the link to Steyn's original column on this.)

Posted by: andycanuck at July 9, 2006 5:20 PM

do a critique of both Kramer and Capt. Ed
Oops. I meant Kudlow.

Posted by: andycanuck at July 9, 2006 5:42 PM

Robert J BS BS: "squandered it on the war in iraq to the tune of some 10 billion a day"

Um, nice blithmetic! That's 3.65 TRILLION a year,
or about 25% of US GDP. Fat chance.

Even the left "costofwar.com" puts the entire cost of the US War in Iraq at under $300 BILLION - and that's since the war started, not an annual basis.

Try again.

Posted by: KevinB at July 10, 2006 11:55 AM

Andycanuck wanted a critique of Larry Kudlow.

I've watched this guy blather on CNBC for years. He's a high-functioning moron. He told people to hold on to their tech stocks in 2000, laughed at people who bought gold, doesn't believe there's a real estate bubble, doesn't care about the US trade deficit or current account deficit, and seems to believe the US has a God-given right to direct the world economy in perpetuity.

He's apparently unaware that the US's current (or at least, immediately past) blessed condition was a direct result of the US mainland being untouched by WWII, while Europe and Japan had to dig out from the rubble and rebuild their entire economies. It took 4o years for Europe and Japan to catch up, but they did. Now, thanks to the internet, freer trade, and globablization, China, India, and other countries are catching up in a decade.

The US dollar is now, truly, a 'paper tiger'. I moved $500,000 in family assets out of the US three years ago - that turned out to be a pretty good move. The US will only continue to enjoy its present pseudo-prosperity as long as the rest of the world will accept US dollars, and there are many signs that that day is drawing to a close.

BTW, lest anyone think these are my ideas alone, check out the Dow Theory Letters of Richard Russell, who's been writing successfully about the markets for last 45 years. I've pretty much summarized his thinking in the above two paras, and Richard is about as capitalist as you can get.

I don't like to find myself agreeing with Mclelland, but in this case, like a stopped watch, he's correct for once. The US economy is pumped up on debt, and is in dangerous shape. That Kudlow can't, or won't, recognize or acknowledge this, shows what a fool he is.

Posted by: KevinB at July 10, 2006 12:16 PM
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