It was clear well before the election was called that Paul Martin's days were numbered. No political party (except for the NDP) accepts failure from their leaders, if you do not 'win' the election (as a party) or increase the number of seats in the house you're going to be replaced; it was always unlikely that any of the parties would win a majority and, in the wake of the Gomery Inquiry, it was unlikely that the Liberals would gain any seats.

The benefit to the Conservatives is simple, if they can win a Minority government then they will (probably) have a very soft opposition from the Liberals because they will replace their leader and try to build his reputation. If you can successfully govern for 2 or 3 years without doing something remarkably foolish it will become difficult to sell you as a 'scary' party which is 'unfit to govern'.

Yeah, and that's the story behind the Ignatieff nomination. McKenna is, to my way of thinking, a much more attractive candidate.

But that's not the only thing on everyone's minds these days. What about the repayment of the $1.14 million that is apparently in limbo:

http://www.thiscanada.com/2005/12/21/wheres-our-114-million/

I'd sure like to know where it is.

And there's evidence that Martin's own seat is in doubt now.

In the last election, Chretien's riding was close - despite all the Federal money he shoveled in over the years so they brougt in the brown bags stuffed with cash.

Wonder if the Liberals would dare try a new money laundering operation to save PMPM from going down to defeat.

Ignatieff will be the new Trudeau: All Hail the new Philosopher King!

*Gag*

What I believe the Liberals are really terrified about is losing government altogether.

Look at all the scandals that have come to light; even with the Liberals in power, and a complicit media that looks the other way more often than not. You don't think there are a dozen more Adscams brewing under the surface, just waiting to be exposed?

I'm willing to bet that what Stephen Harper unearths if he becomes PM will put the Liberals into the wilderness for a generation. I have no inside knowledge of anything, but that's my stake in the ground.

Allan Cutler said at an all candidates meeting that he knows of 5 or 6 government employees that know of further government corruption that are afraid to come forward.

It wouldn't surprise me if some of our media are also nervous about what Harper unearths; maybe some explanations as to their complicity are also lurking under the surface?

I was quite puzzled when I saw the Red Star take the first shots at Martin. It nows makes sense. Typical Librano move. The Red Star is thereby articulating that policy is irrelevant. Henceforth, all editorial comment on policy published in the Red Star is inoperative.

Its a fair assumption the Star threw this out to cast about the idea that the liberals will soon have a new leader, "so-its-okay-to-vote-for-them-cause-Martin-is-going-to-step-down-any-day-now". The major flaw in this is that until an obvious successor pops their head up, to be visciously annillated by team Martin, it means the party is being lead by the control freak.
BTW
As long as McKenna is an agent of the crown (diplomatic post) I believe he is prohibited from organizing politically. So if he or one of his organizers let it slip that he's in leadership mode, team dither's is gonna sink his ship PDQ.

As Travers pointed out in his article, it would be political suicide to make noises during an election campaign. It would also give the rivals cover for their plans.

The point is that unless Martin gets a majority, (impossible without getting every seat in Ontario and recouping QC seats lost) he can't make any long term plans as prime minister or party leader.

Liberal win or loss, the Martin retirement watch starts Jan 24. Only 32 days to go.

"Allan Cutler said at an all candidates meeting that he knows of 5 or 6 government employees that know of further government corruption that are afraid to come forward."

That's all? AFAIK, the culture of corruption runs so deep that, if unearthed in its entirety, it will relegate us to Banana Republic status in the eyes of the US and further hammer our dollar on internationa currency markets.

Like the sound of a 40 or 50 cent dollar?

So, we had a 60 cent dollar under Chretien, and he was proud of that fact. That way we could "compete" with Amerika and the world. Now, with a 85 cent dollar Ontariario is a hurtin' and guess what, someting will have to be done about it to save the Liberal power machine from oblivion, like a 50 cent dollar. DUH!

Have a look at the last six quarters of contracts let by the Ministry of Heritage, you'll smell pork rinds a poppin'.

http://www.pch.gc.ca/div-dis/contrats-contracts/rap-rep_e.cfm

I wonder if this story is a plant. The election doesn't really get underway until the new year. The Liberals are ahead in the polls, though not without big problems with growth (for instance their Ont support is concentrated in GTA, where Tories will win few if any seats, and NDP nipping at their heels). On the other hand, don't assume for a moment that the Liberals and their Establishment supporters are going to allow a Conservative victory, which they will do everything in their power to prevent . They have way too many skeletons in their closet. Soon, more secret speeches will be "uncovered," and we will see the nastiest campaign in the history of this country. Harper and crew better batton down the hatches, retain their composure and sense of humour, and continue to seize the agenda and gain momentum. Otherwise the Liberals will again convince the electorate that only they are fit to "govern."

Kate - you probably already know but SDA is getting recognition in today's newspapers as the blog that broke the Elie Betito story and casued the resignation.

Read it in the Van Sun just now.

Who says the blogshere has no impact

Congrats.

The Harper campaign, in the new year, needs to unveil real income tax cuts, they need to espouse smaller government and give Canadians a firm, alternative way to be governed. Don't let the lying Liberals run their campaign.

BTW - Stephen Harper did very well this morning in a speech in Chatham, Ontario. When asked about Martin's comments about Harper making inappropriate remarks stated that Martin needs to "learn to take a punch" and basically quit whining when he receives criticism. Excellent job Stephen, stay on the offensive. The CPC too quickly became defensive in the last election and it seems they have learned from it.

And we here in the blogosphere will debunk the Librano lies as fast as they can produce them. Bring it on.

I believe that if Harper could squeak out a minority gov't this time, and had a chance to bring in a lot of the very popular Conservative policies, then next election he would have a huge majority!!! What do others think about that senario?

MGK's scenario held water when everybody knew that Martin would take over from Chretien. Nobody knows who would take over from Martin so you could hardly say "Vote for Martin and we'll shortly replace him" because nobody knows who would be next. Travers is on his own with this column.

Travers may have something here that is being overlooked, in his last paragraph "..a leadership campaign is now roiling just below..". 'Roil' to make muddy (water, etc.) by stirring (sediment or dregs). So now we have the Liberals itching for another election if things don't go their way and all they can offer in the way of leadership is sediment and dregs. Pardon me that's all they've given us over the last thirteen years.

As long as we're speculating, I think the wheels have come off for the libs at this point. They are going to lose this one, and will be desperate for a new P.E.T. asap.
They will crown Ignatieff right after they lose this election. He's the only one who fits the "scholarly pseudo-intellectual" bill. He's not tied to the endless scandals. Volpe is visibly slimey, and Frank is just too...frank.
It's all gonna happen fast, too.

I predict Justin Trudeau.

I agree that it could be a misdirection ploy by the Liberals to suggest they are already thinking of Martin's successor. Especially when it's still early days in the campaign, and we still haven't seen the Liberals roll out their campaign.

That will come in the final stretches when, traditionally, they always grasp victory from the jaws of defeat. My thoughts on this:

http://www.thiscanada.com/2005/12/21/liberal-election-strategy/

FWIW.

I agree with Candace. If his media circus/wedding last summer wasn't a precursor to a political move I'll eat my hat.

I'm betting the timetable of that move has been sped up considerably.

Candace said, "I predict Justin Trudeau."

Ouch!

I personally don't care who leads the Liberal Party of Canada.

Remember, it's corrupt to the bone regardless of which asshat it wears.

Fugeddabout the Liberal Party already! This leadership discussion is irrelevant! The Party itself is the problem!

Of course Martin'll be toast following January 23. In other headlines, scientists have proven conclusively that monkeys are funny...

Hey Candace, it doesn't matter who they pick to succeed Smaul Fartin', because after their defeat the Auditor General will receive free reign to look at everything that the Lie-beral's are now hiding from all of us. The "organized criminal" activity that has been exposed thus far is only a drop in the proverbial bucket. We should all be posting examples of Lie-beral boondoggles, graft, corruption and thievery, after the Christmas break and up to election day.

Justin Trudeau? Nope. Not until he fixes his lisp anyway. He can cover it up for 15-minute interviews, but an entire campaign would be very hard on him speaking wise.

Frank McKenna will be the next Liberal leader because that is who David Herle wants. Paul will go, but Herle, Reid et al will not..they now own the Party.

JL, who in their right mind would want to be the puppet(leader) of the Lie-beral Party?

And don't forget: if it's the Conservatives who win, even with a minority, it's a given that they'll ensure the AG and the to-be-created "Special Prosecutor" are granted full powers to probe every nook, cranny and stinky orifice of the beast the so-called "Liberals" created to find out just what sort of dirty, rotten stuff they've been doing since 1993... and to prosecute and punish those responsible, regardless of who it may be...

How many Lie-beral's will simply choose to run away after the election? And where will they run to?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20051221.whaiti1221/BNStory/National/

Just In Trudeau.
Oooooo I hope!
Drunk drivin mom has of course switched to booze, but was constantly on the bong in spawn of satan's spawning season.

He looked so regal at his old man's funeral, wiping at non existant tears in Castro's shadow.
The CBC camera wouldn't do the head shot of the big faker because the acting coach at the time could'nt even work up a tear over the dead socialist,... pathetic in every sense of the word.

Concur with Gimbol: There isn't really any obvious successor to Dithers the Libs can sell (Martin was a sitting MoF). As soon as they send up the trial balloon people will ask "who?"

Read about a poll this a.m. showing the Bloc with about 60% support in Quebec. I think that the wheels are starting to come off the Liberal bus, and the liberal MSM is getting worried about it.

I recall one poll that was put out at the beginning of the election claiming that the Liberals were actually going to gain seats in Quebec, since the Bloc just couldn't go any higher in the polls. I wondered then what planet these people had been polling, and as it transpires my skepticism was entirely justified.

My sense on this whole issue is that the Liberals are in trouble not just in Quebec, but in areas like southwestern Ontario and B.C. Expect a smear campaign against Stephen Harper to start the new year off.

Betito Who? The Liberal manure spreader, aka CSL SSMartin, has, to mix metaphors, hit the shoals of AdScam, & etc., and is sinking. Rats, get off now.>>>

Meanwhile, go to URL below & amaze your eyes;it's Paul's tickle time.

Back to Betito:
"Elie Betito is known in political circles as the chief spokesman for generic drug company Apotex, and can often be seen on the Hill helping the company in its ongoing campaign for changes to patent drug rules."

Question: Was/is Betito registered as a "lobbyist' on behalf of Apotex and/or others? Betito is an officer with Apotex. Betito was "campaign manager"/ or some official capacity for Bonnie Brown, Liberal MP for Oakvlle.

Has the Act been breached by Betito, Brown, and the Liberal Party of Ontario/Canada? Was/is Paul Martin/PMO/PCO aware of this?

A few questions from a Canadian taxpayer/voter? >>>
http://www.voy.com/178771/107115.html
via bourque

Wow, even Jean Chretien made it deeper into the 2000 election before the proverbial long knives started coming out.

I think even the MSM is realizing at this point that Paul Martin is a liability rather than an asset to Liberal election hopes. Has anyone heard a candidate in any riding boost PMPM as a reason to vote Liberal? Because I sure haven't.

Justin Trudeau? Well, if he handles provincial relations as well as his father did, Canada will cease to exist by the year 2020.

I would consider John Manley, but there would have to be a MAJOR purge of the rot and corruption in the current Liberal structure before I'd consider it.

Actually, I've always had a soft spot for John Manley, too. Unfortunately, I think he's unable to muster the behind-the-scenes support needed to pull it off.

Too bad. The guy the MSM bestowed the moniker "Beaker" on grew a lot, and quickly.

It's only the MSM who are enamoured of anything Trudeau, even blow up dolls. The rest of the world recognize that he is the architect of the deficit; the social engineer that brought us the limp-wristed judicial system; that Charter of Frights; and the Just Society. We have a new generation of immigrants who have never heard of him, so the genes won't be a major factor, although I did hear him muse aloud about how the Libs deserve time in the wilderness. Maybe it was self-serving. The NDP are the new Liberals for those who pine for the days of big government and spending, and they are out there. This could be the last of the Liberal Party of Canada as we know it; the dredges of Trudeau-style pork-barrelling and western alienation.

Y'all are putting a lot of faith on the voters of Ontario. Librals lose 10 seats in Quebec, 2 in Alberta, hold in Sask. or a gain of 1, hold their maritime seats, and lose maybe 1 or 2 in BC to the NDP. I think we will see the attack ads come January and Ontario will shy away from Harper and park their vote with our friend Paul.

During the last election didn't Martin dismiss Harper as a legitimate PM because Harper couldn't even lead his own party? Funny how the tables have turned! That's what you get when you fill your party with turncoats and traitors (Belinda, Scott...).

It will be McKenna, but you can't do the blair/brown or chretien/martin thing, because it's not a lock and he isn't in cabinet.

"I predict Justin Trudeau."

I predict Justin Timberlake.

Personally I like the idea of grabbing up a handgun, ..just in case.

jus kidding....maybe.