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August 8, 2005

Crude Prices At Often Seen Before Levels

OIL: $64 !!!!

See? Anyone can do it.

What not everyone can do, apparently, is adjust prices for inflation.

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Click on the graphic to go to the full version at CS Monitor.

The kindest explanation I can come up with for the uninterrupted reporting that $60, $62, $64... is a "NEW RECORD PRICE FOR CRUDE" is that all of the editors over the age of 25 are on vacation.

Actually, come to think of it, that would explain a lot of things.

update - more from Mitch.


Posted by Kate at August 8, 2005 10:50 PM
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Adjusting for Inflation from hubs and spokes
Kate knows how to do it. Posts like that make me feel a lot better in general.... [Read More]

Tracked on August 9, 2005 3:03 PM

Inflation Is A Female Dog. from Garfield Ridge
Visit Hubs and Spokes for proof of that. Just remember, 5 out of 4 people can't count. BTW, do *NOT* get me started on the rising cost of college tuition. Once I start, I'll be here all month railing against [Read More]

Tracked on August 9, 2005 9:20 PM

Comments

Strangely, after seeing this, I feel better.

On the other hand, I feel cheated- less to bitch about. Oh well, I can always focus on Hillary.

Posted by: Sigmund, Carl and Alfred at August 8, 2005 11:01 PM

No wonder this chicken and banana on white and coffee I'm enjoying by kerosene lamp seems such a high return on investment.

Fortunately I'm still driving my 1978 automobile (MG Midget), and I like Kate's comments discussions better than baseball, so that's not a problem for me.

I wonder about the college tuition though. I wonder if it is a question of unreasonable demand exceeding reasonable supply, or if it is a product of grossly bloated bureaucracy.

Posted by: Tony at August 8, 2005 11:04 PM

During a cycle of inflation Oil and Gold stocks may outperform the general market.
Good hunting on your picks.

Posted by: doug at August 8, 2005 11:38 PM

Well Kate, your vacation in Colorado must have done you some good, cuz you sure seem to be on a roll lately! 'tween bombing of London pics, 2 straights gettin' married and the "Safe Firearms Discharge Site" (that was priceless, really!) you've got some great posts recently.
Thanks for the entertainment!

Posted by: Bacardi Breezer at August 9, 2005 12:08 AM

Kate, tell that to the farming sector. Yeah, oil isn't as high as it has been in the past, but neither is wheat or beef right now. Current oil prices combined with everything else will be another low blow for Canada's ag sector. :-(

Posted by: Sean at August 9, 2005 12:18 AM

Anyone else notice that only items associated with unionized labor have gone up? Just strikes me as kind of ironic.

Posted by: Shawn at August 9, 2005 12:23 AM

Our farmers haven't suffered as much as the ones growing bananas and coffee. As far as autos and houses go, I think there has been a qualitative improvement in both that would account for some of the price increase. University tuition on the other hand seems to be out to lunch. These are American numbers but are probably relative to ours.

Posted by: rebarbarian at August 9, 2005 12:26 AM

Hmm, I'm not so sure about that, Shawn. House production doesn't seem too unionized to me.

Only about 20% of the private sector is unionized. About 80% of the public sector is.

It would be interesting to know what the inflation-adjusted increase in the cost of the state to its citizens has been between 1980 and 2004.

Posted by: Tony at August 9, 2005 12:32 AM

Just commenting off the cuff on what was visible from the post. I don't expect it would actually be the case for everything, but the thought struck me as kinda funny.

Posted by: Shawn at August 9, 2005 1:25 AM

Just for fun Kate, do you think the drop in the inflation adjusted price of oil is a good or a bad thing?

My own take is that the higher the oil price the greater the incentive to find technologies which will substitute for dead dinos in the tank. And I suspect that mastery of those technologies is going to be the thing which keeps the West ahead in a globally competitive, interconnected economy.

But, kick out the incentive and you're left with the same old IC engines which have been powering the world for the last hundred years. Nothing terribly wrong with that; but the technologies it employs have long since ceased to be innovative or even very interesting.

Worse, lower oil prices tend to encourage sprawl and the de-densification of cities. The entire and very real problem of the donut cities of America is driven by very, very cheap gas. Now, your utopia may be an unending highway to the same mall surrounded by miles of cul de sacs; but if the peak oilsters are even close to right that model of human habitation will be coming to its natural end in the next twenty to fifty years as the oil reserves run down and the price goes up.

Cheap oil postpones the possibility of reaching peak demand quickly. It pushes better technology further into the future and it encourages a development model which has as its centerpiece endless car trips.

Posted by: Jay Currie at August 9, 2005 1:49 AM

You may have a point there, Jay, but do you really care, when filling up your car and forking over $50 instead of the $30 from last year, that "really" you're paying less for gas? If that's gonna do it for you, then good for you, but I don't see the "average salary" calculations in there, so if, as we've been told, Canada has actually dropped in standard of living and our average salaries have remained somewhat static these past ten years, then doing the math doesn't work so well.

Now, if people would lose their guzzling SUV's ...

Posted by: Candace at August 9, 2005 2:11 AM

All the editors over 25 are INDEED on vacation!

I've just read with interest a letter in the September edition of Vanity Fair.

The writer stated he had submitted an item to a popular magazine and then received a call from one of its editors.

She was baffled by references to "Deep Throat" and "Watergate source."

Posted by: JJM at August 9, 2005 4:29 AM

"Now, if people would lose their guzzling SUV's ..."

Ha! Here in the UK, my wife filled up the tank of our car last night and it cost £45 (about Canadian $98) for around 50 litres.

Anyway, when I return to Canada in a couple of years, I'm looking to buy myself a "guzzling" SUV.

Posted by: JJM at August 9, 2005 4:37 AM

The vast majority of SUV's sold in Canada are small (e.g. Honda CRV) or mid-size (e.g. Honda Pilot)--because few Canadians can afford large SUVs. The mid-size get the same gas mileage as so-called mini-vans (which are anything but "mini" these days) and small SUVs get better mileage than mini-vans.

So let's all start referring to "gas-guzzling" mini-vans.

It's in the States that large numbers of truly gas-guzzling SUVs are sold--and sales have declined rapidly with the rise in gas prices--not Canada.

Yet the Canadian media simply parrot the US critics of SUVs without actuallly bothering to find out what the situation in Canada is.

Mark
Ottawa

Posted by: Mark Collins at August 9, 2005 8:23 AM

Yeah - I'm never bought into the "gas guzzling SUV" meme too.

Around here, they're the economy cars.

Posted by: Kate at August 9, 2005 9:26 AM

Mark

You must not live in Calgary - Cadillac Escalades and Ford Excursions are pretty commnon, ... thought I'm pretty sure all those people didn't live here through the 80's! Those of us who did know better and are a bit more frugal. That being said oil pays the bill so no one complains too loudly about the gas bill at the pump.

Tony

On the subject of inflation in university tuition -- it's been about government cutbacks over the last 20 years. When I went to Univeristy in the early 1980's (in Alberta) we paid approx. 5% of the real cost now the typical student (again in Alberta) pays about 20% of the cost. What the governments took out of education was made up for the only way it could be - tuition increases.

I am appalled that no one really protests the cutbacks that have been forced upon higher education. This is our future! Ralph Klein never really believed higher education was important - because it wasn't for him. I don't know what justification the fed's have used to justify their cutbacks.

Posted by: sheila at August 9, 2005 9:43 AM

Sheila: I was generalizing about the country as a whole. Alberta is as ever distinct.

Mark
Ottawa

Posted by: Mark Collins at August 9, 2005 11:10 AM

The price per barrel isn't what I would call the issue. In the past week here I've seen gas prices swing from the low 80's to 95 cents per litre. Given a conservative difference of 12 cents/litre, that's (to include our U.S. friends here) 48 cents/U.S. gallon.

Assuming the oil companies aren't giving anything away (they wouldn't sell at a loss) then somebody is making a whopping huge profit when prices are high.

The swing's the thing.

Also, in the 'old' days before computerized pump management, it was a pain in the butt to change gas prices. Nowadays, you punch a couple of buttons and prices change at the pump and on the big sign. This way prices can swing all over the place at a moments notice making it a crap shoot as to whether you can get it at a reasonable price. Also, leads to madness at the pumps when prices drop fairly low - somebody's going tp get hurt one of these days.

Posted by: Brian M. at August 9, 2005 11:21 AM

Rule of thumb on Gas prices - starting 2 weeks before the May long week-end they go up - then all summer they go up and down like a yo-yo - but never to the early May price. In October after Thanksgiving they start to slide back down - but again never to the early May cost. Buying Gas in the summer is a crapshoot ... somedays you are lucky some not.

And yeah - someones making a profit - but not that huge - look at the taxes - most pumps have a sticker outlining who gets what.

Posted by: sheila at August 9, 2005 12:47 PM

I take transit and rent a car when I need one (long weekends, etc). When I had a PT Cruiser, it was double the cost to fill up (same miles travelled) as a basic 4-door sedan. I didn't look near as cool in the sedan, but I didn't much care. (BTW I got the Cruiser for camping as I needed to fit the 170lb dog in with the tent & sleeping bags, otherwise I'd have gone with the 4-door).

You also seem to pay a lot more for the Cruiser....

My sister has a Hundai SUV and a hmmm can't remember the make, anyway, minivan, both new in the last 3 years. The SUV is way more of a guzzler than her minivan, yet smaller. Go figure.

Kate, where you live an SUV may be appropriate, but in the city? Running around for groceries & to the office? Nah.

Posted by: Candace at August 9, 2005 2:50 PM

Candace: Honda Pilot (mid-size SUV) and Honda Odyssey (minivan) get exactly the same mileage:

Pilot: EPA Mileage Estimates: (City/Highway)
Automatic: : 20 mpg / 28 mpg
http://www.edmunds.com/new/2005/honda/pilot/100454395/specs.html

Odyssey: EPA Mileage Estimates: (City/Highway)
Automatic: : 20 mpg / 28 mpg
http://www.edmunds.com/new/2005/honda/odyssey/100454395/specs.html

It is very similar with mid-size SUVs and minivans from other manufacturers. That is because such vehicles tend to weigh about the same and use similar engines.

Mark
Ottawa

Posted by: Mark Collins at August 9, 2005 3:44 PM

So much for gas-guzzling SUVs.

Please start the stories on gas-guzzling minivans.

Mark
Ottawa

Posted by: Mark Collins at August 9, 2005 7:54 PM

Calgary Grit is so upset with high oil prices he/she has come up with a truly mindboggling defense of the NEP of all things. Help! When you see someone from Calgary defending the undefensible, you know that the under 25 crowd is running amok.

Posted by: Two Cents at August 9, 2005 11:37 PM

Actually I have nothing against big gas-guzzling SUVs personally. If someone can afford one, and is prepared to pay all the associated costs including gas - more power to them.*

I would have thought Albertans of all people would be ALL FOR high rates of gas consumption - that's surely good for the oil business.

* Mind you, here in London, there's nothing more daunting than dodging the shiny new honking Range Rovers in Kensington or Knightsbridge.

Posted by: JJM at August 10, 2005 4:00 PM
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