I commented at James Joyners Outside The Beltway a week or two ago (two lazy to dig up the direct link) that the tight race between Kerry and Bush in polls leading up to tonight may have been reflecting a phenomenon that occured here in Canada.
Typically, Ontario voters lean towards the Liberal "natural governing party", but the party was being rocked by the Adscam scandal. They were recieving a battering from some of their own, as well as the Opposition, and the usually friendly Canadian media was relentless in publicizing the details.
During the election, the polls were very tight, and at one time the Conservatives held a slim lead. They were reported to be making inroads in Ontario - a breakthrough for the party that had its roots in the western Reform/Alliance party.
On election night, the expected support in Ontario never materialized. While they did make gains, and we are in a Liberal minority government because of it - they didn't pass the threshold needed to govern. In the post mortem, it became evident that a number of those voters polled who stated they were voting Conservative were lying. They were embarrassed to admit they were supporting a party ridden with corruption. But in the privacy of the voting booth, they returned to mother.
There are parallels. The pummelling that the Bush administration has taken in the mainstream press, with legions of critics flogging tell-all's, the "success" of the Moore movie... how many Bush supporters felt intimidated, even embarrassed to admit their preference when polled?
My guess - enough to skew the data to give Kerry a few false points.
Posted by Kate at November 2, 2004 11:35 PMTrackBack URL for this entry:
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You may be right about Ontarians lying to exit pollers. But ever since the election I have been suspicious that there was real hanky-panky going on.
Here in Ottawa there were some stories told on CFRA about some pretty fishy events involving the advance polls. First of all, contrary to law, the advance poll ballot boxes were broken open and the votes were counted - not examined and credited to individual candidates, but counted in aggregate - allegedly to make sure the numbers "balanced". A Conservative scrutineer said that "anyone could see what was marked on the ballots". The ballot boxes were then resealed until election night. I suspect that Liberals did this in order to get a look at how each riding was trending, and then concentrate their effort in the most endangered ridings. What does "concentrated effort" consist of? Well, read on ...
Second, a lady who worked at a polling station on election day, voted at an advance poll. On election day when she showed up to work, she checked the list to make sure her name was crossed off, having voted early. It wasn't, and neither was the name of her friend who voted with her. This could be a beautiful little scam. Except for a few polling place workers, no one who voted in the advance polls is going to show up to discover that someone is going to vote a second time for them.
We should worry more about democracy in Canada than in the USA.