It’s Probably Nothing

CarDealershipGuy;

This past week brought another rise in wholesale prices at auto auctions. Black Book data shows that the increase is creeping into retail prices as well.

Contrary to what anyone anticipated, this trend will likely stay with us because dealers are currently selling more cars than they’re buying. They can’t replace their inventory quickly enough because there isn’t enough supply in the market, but the demand is still strong.

Manheim estimates that used retail sales increased 16% in January from December and that used retail sales were up 5% year over year

Using estimates of used retail days’ supply based on vAuto data, January ended at 44 days’ supply, down from 56 days at the end of December.

I’m beginning to think the “chip shortage” is intentional.

26 Replies to “It’s Probably Nothing”

  1. Intentional? 100% CORRECT!
    Was at a GM dealership on Thurs. New vehicles, there is zero incentives ( no discounts off of MSRP’s) there attitude is if you don’t like the price the next guy will buy it.
    Manager told me GM has parking lots full and so many vehicles that they are parking them in fields.
    Those sitting in fields the mice are moving in!
    Do you think you will get warranty if a problem arises due to mice eating some wires? Good luck!

  2. We just purchased a bed with an automatically adjustable base. The beds in the store have a remote to change shape but the new ones use an app on your phone. The sales person stated that they discontinued the remotes due to an inability to get chips.
    I hope there is manual adjustment so I don’t have to fight with my phone in the middle of the night to raise/lower my head.

  3. L – On the list of intentional shortages, should cough medicine be on it, too?
    The ingredients are generic. Is there a shortage in India, where the ingredients would be produced?
    I asked a local pharmacist if she could not mix up some. She replied, they are only allowed to do that for children.
    When institutions fail, a self-governing people steps up and shoulder the responsibility.

    *”Be Not Afraid !” Face down what we fear. We’ll find the way out of the desert. When we stop going in circles.

    (Does that sound familiar? It should)

    1. Add to that decongestants, antibiotic eye drops and not too long ago baby Tylenol.

      Many if not most ingredients come from offshore. So expect more shortages to come.

      A favourite short sf story is “The Machine Stops” where preoccupied self possessed elites don’t perceive things failing around them and rebuke those who are trying to warn them.

      We’ll folks, the machine is stopping and it’s being done deliberately.

    2. Did you ask why there is a shortage on only certain preparations using the same ingredients, but not others?

  4. Currently if you scrap your car at the metal mongers, the going rate now is $ 310/ton CDN shred value minus tires.
    If they are aluminum rims best you demount the tires and scrap the rims for even more cash and do that with the battery too , if your handy cut out the catcon for even more bucks.
    And scrap metal values are rising, guess demand from China and inflation.
    A 2 ton junk vehicle can pocket you a princely sum of $ 700 + CDN.
    That’s why prices are up.

  5. One of many factors driving up the cost of used vehicles derives from government’s use of force to push mfgrs to make battery powered cars. To avoid the inevitable costs of battery replacement and the limitations of battery power, people seek out cars that rely entirely on ICE (gas/diesel) – and because the best ones are now only available as used vehicles they can often cost more now than they did when new.

  6. Yep Vehicle prices have definitely increased.
    But one has too look around. KIJIJI is where I found my replacement truck after having my d’max stolen from YYC airport (THAT ONE Hurt..Bastards).

    bought a GMC Sierra 2500HD 6L SLT full load. 270K on the clock. 7000.
    Brought it bk to Calgary – into the dealership where I’m well known.
    a few minor front end issues: Shocks, Pitman arm, alignment, Air Bag sensors (not cheap ffs) & had em install new Towing mirrors, I’d bought for it. I installed New Chev tail lights, WeatherTec matts, cpl of interior seat area moulding’s found at a wrecker for 50 bucks. Ordered a new LED’d Cluster. Next up will be front calipers & slotted rotors (sitting at home now), after my next shift up North. And that should be about it mechanically.

    New headlamps also on order so as to install 9005/9006 LED bulbs.

    Runs well – leather & interior in very good shape…but a there’s a fair amount of body work that I can do when the weather turns warm.
    Bos has a wooden liner that is def coming out, found an awesome Aluminum tool box for the box and will likely buy a tool box tonneau for it. All told it’ll be about ~12-13,000 to where I want it to be.

    Compared to a new D’max..? a steal IMO.

    My old 2003 Citation Supreme 26RKS RV is up for sale – completely renovated and interior painted light grey – day-nite shades gone replaced with white curtains in living area and blackout ones in bedroom, new toilet, new counters, new SS Sink & Faucet, New Tires & shocks & Vinyl flooring…up for 14K. Only thing to fix is the slide motor. Another thing to do when weather turns warm.

    Wanna go back to a smaller bumper pull ~26ft w/slide out.

    Decided to go with a gasser – far less demand for this vehicle as compared to an 06/07 LBZ/Allison powered Duramax used.

    1. Steak,
      Sorry for your loss, you had a lot invested in her and a lot of pride in the results and rightly so!
      Was it parked in a “secure” park and go lot?
      Death to car thieves!

      1. ZON…

        That was a 30K loss. too much to even describe.
        I’ll be short:
        Titan Tank 52 gallon
        Slip Tank 30 gallon
        EFI Live with an Edge Monitor
        Custom front Bumper: 20″ Rigid bar, 4 ea Rigid Spots in the fog holes
        Custom Rear Bumper from BulletProof in Red Deer w/2 Rigids as back up lights _awesome visibility
        PPE Headers
        New Turbo
        17″ custom rims with Michelin TA’s
        Sinister intake – EGR Delete
        Straight piped exhaust – only a resonator
        Garmin GPS
        BBerry BT unit
        Led’d cluster
        Front & rear camera’s
        8 way leather Heated, Lumbar front seats I bought from Fla back in 2010 and installed (it was an SLE)
        About 2 grand in tools…..

        That truck MT..? I’d get 21mpg @ 120kmhr on the highway w/enough fuel capacity to drive to Winterpeg on 1 fill up from Calgary.

        Vehicle Thieves should be treated PRECISELY & in the Identical manner as we did in the 1800’s
        OAK TREE – HEMP ROPE sitting on horse that liked to run….1 smack and adios MOFO.

        Apparently they lose a vehicle a week (and /or catalytic converter) out of their economy Lot which is directly abutting the road up to Arrivals/Departures. NO Freaking Video – squat. Am betting the crew that works the parking lots are in on the gig. Anyone could walk into the lot @ ~ 3:00AM – punch out the door lock, rig the ignition and with a ticket 10 min old pay the 3.50 and drive off.

        Will never park in any one of their lots again.

  7. Less is more comes to mind.

    Once you figger that you can make move by making less, well, why not.
    Though it eventually crashes and the prices will crash with it.
    Competition will take care of that.
    Of course some may decide to go out of business or make the stuff in China and more likely in India or some other such place where the workers are your basic state controlled slave.

  8. In 2020 I bought a GMC 2500 HD Diesel Denali for $87,000 (all in, including license). A 2023 lists for $112,367 plus HST, or $127,000 which is almost 50% higher in 3 years. With disinflation running at 5.98% my arse.

    I’m also cruising the vintage car market. Inventory is up but prices are not falling by much. Leveling off for sure.

  9. Less new vehicle sales mean less used vehicles in the future of course. Combine that with the manufacturers switching to all electric over the next few years as well as the realization that EV’s are proving to be highly unsuitable for Canadian cold and distances and we have a big problem. Top it off with Trudeau’s ever increasing carbon tax to try to force us into EV’s and the problem is even worse. Canada could end up looking like Cuba North. All ancient vehicles on the road owned by people who can scrape up the money for gasoline. I often tell people I wish I was ten years older. Why? Because I would have had ten more great years before the world went completely insane.

  10. Why no repossessions? Because … equity. Repossessions are racist. No more white man financing (although those deferments are painfully ‘white’)

    1. The constant, in-your-face “DEIB” indoctrination at the car company I work for is off the charts. Wouldn’t be surprised if they’re holding back on the repos so that they won’t get accused of racism.

      1. I was only 1/2 joking. Actually less than 1/32 joking. It’s the way of the upside-down, inside-out world we live in now. All our socio-political-economic contracts are … woke to “whitey’s racist repression”

  11. I work for one of top 10 car brands in their corporate HQ. While I can see why many people may think the inventory problems are phony baloney, I can assure you the chip shortages and continuing supply chain issues are very real.

    1. Sid

      True that…Have some good friends at a GM dealership in Calgary…they are selling NEW vehicles without the entertainment modules.
      unreal that.

      But used parts are in abundance & STILL CHEAP..at least for the year my GMC 2500hd truck is – 2003.

    2. The chip shortages and supply chain issues are extremely bad timing. We are going to need as many ICE vehicles as we can get our hands on to try to save our standard of living here in Canada. Losing the ability to own a car…your own private transportation…is a very big part of having a comfortable standard of living in any country or climate. Losing it in Canada is even worse. The use of fossil fuels for transportation and heat is essential to a comfortable life in Canada. Until a proper, viable substitute for fossil fuels is invented Canada is not livable without them. Our current political climate of green fanaticism and ‘wokeism’ is making Canada’s future a very rough, rocky road. Young people should get out while they can.

      1. It’s the young people who are DOING all this to Canada and the USA … just ask UnMe. They all want the old people to just DIE already so they can wreck the country faster. Let the young sleep in the beds they’re making

  12. A bit OT but the chip shortage is a good example of supply demand. There is very little supply, so what demand there is creates a shortage which creates inflation. This is the inflation that they are raising interest rates to combat.

    Question – how do rising interest rates solve supply chain/manufacturing shortages?

    1. One would think it slows the uptake of products that use chips … and allow chip production to catch up. But that doesn’t appear to be happening as sales of new, high-priced automobiles, buoyed by relaxed loan criteria, are not slowing down.

      Guess the Fed will have to keep jacking interest rates HIGHER and HIGHER ! Until no one can afford to pay the credit cards they’ve been loading up to compensate for runaway inflation.

  13. My insurer placed my 60km 2001 gm Sierra 1500 at 33000$ replacement. Are you insane? Drop that and give me a rational assessment. I will not pay for that.

  14. I have a 2011 Ford Ranger, 4L automatic. Bought it in 2015 I believe it was an estate item that went to a dealer. Was unlicenced for 2 years. Had 33K kilometers when I bought it. Now has 159K kilometers. I love it and will keep it until either it or I can’t function anymore. I’m sure not going to buy a new Ranger. I want a truck box, not a 4 foot open trunk. Ranger box is 6 foot.

  15. Think was early 2020 when youngest offspring was concerned about the brakes in the circa 2009 Mazda. Took it in for repair and was advised repair would cost more than car worth. So promptly traded car in for a really nice used car on their lot.
    Okay, you’ll say kid was scammed. But said dealership has been good with us, and the car was getting long in the tooth. Offspring more than ready to upgrade, and really loves new car.
    Given the issues a few month later, offspring dodged a serious bullet in terms of being able to get a car at a reasonable price.

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