57 Replies to “Did you know the war in Ukraine is over?”

    1. No, oil prices are down because demand has cratered … and is headed for greater depths. Supply. Demand. It’s simple really … but leftists still refuse to “believe” Adam Smith … and embrace Marx.

      Thanks Joe Biden! You got oil prices down by unleashing the highest inflation in the history of America, and then unleashing The Fed to kill us off. Nice job! Enjoy the decline … as someone who used to be here was fond of saying.

      1. Yeah Kenji is correct …. Europe is going to hell in a handcart with shut downs across industries and consumer operations.
        And the mother of all recessions is coming down the track … that ain’t no light at the end of the tunnel …. it is the Recession Cannon Ball Express.

      2. Correct Kenji, when people can’t afford to buy a product the price drops as supply increases. Only communists do not understand that.

    2. The war is over – start buying bridges in Ukraine NOW while you can still get them cheap!!! = CBC

      1. “Adopt a bridge” – I like it, Zelenskyy can do a bondage dance in drag with Disney characters to sell it to the UnMe’s of the west.

        1. I assume our exalted blackfaced leader will be the head of that parade? Followed immediately (attached, actually…) by the 2IC cowboy-booted turban?

  1. The Global Oil Market is actually undersupplied right now. The proof is that the “Big Three” inventories (Crude+Gasoline+Distillates) in the U.S. has been declining somewhat steadily at about 1/2 million barrels/d since the Aug/20 peak – that’s well over 2 years. That decline trend also includes roughly 220 million barrels of crude released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) over the past year. In spite of the SPR releases domestic crude inventories only grew by 6 million barrels and distillate inventory sank to a level not seen since the 1950’s. Right now OPEC+ is holding its current 2 million barrel/day target cut until end of 2023. They couldn’t really raise it much anyway since spare capacity is essentially gone. The Permian Basin production growth has been very slow increasing a half million barrels/day in the last year. China will reopen and I expect will be by spring 2023 adding about a million barrels of demand. Russia without investment from the oil majors will experience production decline of about a million barrels/d. The EU will continue to sink deeper into its self made energy crisis (which I expect people are wising up quickly about). There might be production growth from Guyana, Chevron’s re-started Venezuelan Ops and Iran but I can’t see that fixing inventory decline. Goldman Sach’s calling for $110/barrel avg Brent price in 2023. I’m thinking that’s conservative. Throw in the fact that exploration budgets have been slashed since 2015 and there’s not much in new reserves coming down the pipe. We’re looking at a historic shortage that’s been at least a decade in the making. No war needed.

    1. Nicely put. What other industry in the near term will generate, and return to shareholders, huge gobs of money? I might consider selling my modest holdings in Canadian energy stocks when Buffet sells his huge stake in Occidental Petroleum. Until then, game on!

      1. Just saw the latest global onshore & floating storage inventory estimate. It’s now down to ~3.40B Bbls. That’s starting from a peak of ~3.91B Bbls in week 12 of 2021 (so about 98 wks ago). That’s another measure that shows a consistent 0.5MM Bbl/d under supply in spite of all the SPR releases. Without the SPR releases the under supply would have been double that this past year. And the SPR is close to being finished with the politically motivated depletion. Now this morning there’s news of Russia shutting in about 0.5MM Bbls/d due to the EU price cap. So now global under supply is about triple. When China reopens in a couple of months that’s another million barrels a day of new demand.

  2. Economic Slowdowns tend to lower oil prices. If we are lucky? It will only be a recession.

    It wasn’t that long ago that oil future prices went negative when the Panic over the Wuhan Flu caused governments to shut their economies down.

  3. Tell it to the Ukrainians and Russians dying to make Biden INC., Zelensky, Putin and the Military Industrial Complex much wealthier.

  4. The war premium has been leaking out of the wheat market slowly over the past couple months as well. Unless xiden escalates (and he is trying) this war is essentially over. Not the ongoing gubmint vs its people world war but the ground war in ukraine. Unless of course the ukrainians and their hired guns shell some Russian positions and get a response. This will be ongoing sadly.

    1. Both sides are running low on ammo.

      Russia is buying North Korean Artillery Shells.
      Ukraine (through the US) is buying South Korean Artillery Shells.

      Russia is running through its supply of Precision Guided Missiles, and is substituting Iranian Drones. Part of the payment to Iran includes Russian Nuclear Weapons expertise for the Iranian Nuclear Weapons program. I wonder if Russia will start buying Iranian Ballistic Missiles? That would be a major escalation in the war, but would be consistent with continuing the Russian attacks on civilians. If they do, I can see the Biden Administration releasing ATACMS Ballistic missiles to Ukraine, which would further escalate tensions.

      Remember that WSJ Article on how the Biden Administration said we are limiting the range of weapons the US and its allies provide to Ukraine? That came out just before the Ukraine hit two (2) Russian Strategic Weapons Airbases deep in Western Russian. It was a message from the US just before it happened, “We did not do that.”

  5. Demand destruction is the other force acting on oil and commodity prices. Gin up enough unemployed people who can’t afford to drive their car, much less go for a trip with the camper trailer that they bought a year ago, and presto: falling oil prices.

    1. Lumber is also way down, only slightly elevated compared to pre-covid times.

      The current inflation outbreak is rooted in services.

      1. Food stupid. Food. I guess an UnHuman like you doesn’t eat … or only eats FREE government cheese. Food prices are ungodly, soul crushingly HIGH.

        I was checking out at my local Safeway the other night and an elderly customer in the line next to me was literally SCREAMING at the checker over the prices. But, of course she was screaming about the Safeway executives and their “greed” in jacking up prices. Silly old woman. But that is the REAL reaction on the ground to unprecedented food inflation.

        Yes … lumber is down because demand is down. Our economy is screeching to a halt. Enjoy the decline.

        1. Rib eye steaks pre-covid $9.98 precup, $8.98 whole boneless roast at Sam’s. Yesterday: $13.98 for either (no discount for bulk roast).

          Pork. Jops $1.98 bulk pack. Now $2.98.

          Boneless Chicken breasts $1.98. Now $3.57.

          What inflation?

          1. They’re the ones paying. Also that number should be 10X higher.

            It is true that there is also food inflation. We’ll see if that follows lumber or services. That being said, don’t shop at SafeWay. No idea why this overpriced mediocritymart is so prolific in Calgary.

  6. Why the huge difference between gas and diesel at the pumps??
    The diesel pain is no doubt impacting much more than is obvious.

    1. Here is the break down of refined products …. not enough diesel and too much gasoline = high diesel prices and lower gasoline prices.
      Gasoline accounts for 46% of our oil barrel, what’s happening to the other 54%?
      Twenty-six percent of the remaining crude oil goes into the production of diesel and other fuels. About nine percent is used to make jet fuel. Three percent of the crude oil goes into the production of asphalt to pave roads and parking lots.
      One percent of this goes into the manufacturing of lubricants: the greases and fluids that help keep our world running smoothly.
      The remaining fifteen percent is classified as other. These — “bottom of the barrel” petrochemical products include thousands of different items, ranging from makeup to medicine.

      I’M NOT SURE ABOUT THIS BUT SHIPPING USED TO USE THE DIRTEST OF THE DIRTY OILS BUT NOW HAVE TO BURN LOW SULPHUR FUEL AND THIS HAS HURT DIESEL VOLUMES …. I HEARD THIS ON BNN BUT NOT SURE ABOUT THE ACCURACY OF THE STATEMENT.

      1. Bunker Oil is pretty nasty stuff, but the move to low sulphur requirements meant that they could no longer use it raw, it had to be refined, which meant costs went up, and volumes went down.

    2. I figure it is tankers of diesel going from NA to Europe. Russian refineries not supplying Europe anymore.

    3. Multiple factors on diesel. Used to be a high sulphur low value added fuel. With new enviro regs now highly refined ultra low sulphur. Not the same fuel we used to buy

    1. The Russians are still rushing untrained, unequipped, demoralized “Mobilized” cannon fodder to the Ukrainian War, excuse me, “Special Operation.” – – It is a Russian special operation just as intelligent as the special education students that ride the short bus and lick the windows. It all reminds me of stories about armies being formed in the pre-Nation State times in the 1500’s and 1600’s.

      https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-6

      Read the previous entries too. Some mobilized Russian troops are mutinying and refusing to fight.

      1. @rd – You need to appreciate the instant gratification instincts of the west, where even warfare is believed to be a 10 minute round of Call of Duty.

        What’s the old saying “Putin play’s chess, while the drag queens play checkers” or something akin. They don’t play checkers as even that may require the attention span of an MSNBC opinion piece.

        20 years of NATO encroachment (good or bad) coupled with cultural and racist demonization takes some patience to ignore, and yet here we are now, playing 4D chess with the attention spans of mosquito’s verses the f*cking Russians and their global allies who outwardly hate the west.

        1. …and the Russians are losing to our offloaded near-expired surplus. Chess all you want, not going to change any of that.

          1. Apologies I can’t respond, SDA moderators are still holding earlier comments…….

            Paul
            December 7, 2022 at 2:55 pm
            Your comment is awaiting moderation. This is a preview; your comment will be visible after it has been approved.

      2. Oh my sweet lord! From the mouths of the Nuland family!
        Are you that naive or just a schill for the deep state?
        Weapons of mass destruction ring a bell or has your bell been gonged?

      3. The Nazi army has been decimated, all that’s left are a minor amount not yet turned to cannon fodder, a few random Nazis returning from injuries, and some 3rd party Al Queda mercenaries.
        Russia has an army and population that is 3x and 4x the size of the Nazis.
        Stop believing the endless lies of the MSM, Biden handlers, and the Eurofascists. They ALL lie. Ukraine is done, save for the Russian ground offensive that is coming shortly.

        1. yes . remember how the russians were retreating. seems Napoleon and Hitler both fell for that one . Russians are winter troops.

        2. LOL

          “Russians are winter troops.”

          Russia, in WW2, only got where it did because the US (mistakenly) bailed them out. There is no reason to believe it gets any better for Russia.

    2. Good lord Russia has been trying to take Bakhmut for 5 months now. They’ve lost about 55% pf the land they took since Feb 24. I said here that March/April would be their high water mark. Looks like I was right.

      Now Ukraine is doing a ton of damage deep into Russian territory while knocking down 85% of incoming missiles. The Iranian UAVs don’t work in the cold.

      Even the most out there Russian supporters are really seeing what’s going on. Read up on Igor Girkins latest comments.

      Meanwhile you have mobiks sleeping in tents made of saran wrap. First real cold snap and they’re up sh!ts creek. Speaking of cold, several Russian towns are without heat due to the centralized heating systems breaking down. It’s -30c. Where are the technicians?

      In Ukraine.

      1. Have you ever read anything about the eastern fronts in WWI or WWII?

        All of these things people keep posting ( using untrained soldiers as cannon fodder, not properly supplying them, making them fight in horrible conditions) and using as evidence that Russia is collapsing do not seem to understand that this has been consistent Russian military strategy for over 100 years.

        1. And during those 100 years Russia lost the Soviet-Polish war and then lost against the Germans until America basically gave them everything. You know Afghanistan has winter too right?

          1. You write that as if you are too dumb to understand that, unlike during WWII, there are other places the Russia can and is getting supplies from besides the US?

            Thanks to the dementia patient in the White House, instead of using US supply to lower the price of oil we keep it artificially high, giving Putin extra money to buy weapons.

      2. alla unDORK
        yup, the ukes shot down all those missiles with 12 ga pumps, so that the power infrastructure is safe,’cept the Russians decided to wipe out much of the Uke’s power, so now their cell phones can’t be charged up. Try reading something beside the lefty propaganda for once, and take the unCOLON with you.

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