I mean if they knew about it back in May.
Andolfatto is right that no one really knows the debt tipping point. But it’s worth noting that the US debt-to-GDP ratio—essentially a country’s debt compared to its annual economic output—was 129 percent at the end of 2020. In other words, the official US debt was nearly a third larger than the entire US economy.
That is considerably higher than Greece’s debt-to-GDP ratio in 2010, when it received a bailout from the International Monetary Fund to avoid defaulting on its obligations.
Greece was burdened not only with the Euro that it had no control over but it was also under the 4th Reich of Frau Merkel. The US can monetize its debt with its own currency. If Greece still had its Drachma and remained out of the EU, they would have been independent and free to devalue to pull in foreign exchange.
The US is fooooked. Great opportunities to disinvest from funny-money US companies, and buy inflation-hedged hard assets.
There is virtually NO way to profit from a combination of BS ‘ESG’ accounting trickery and corporate buttf++kery, coupled with a currency no one is going to want.
The Rouble trade has done decently the last few weeks. Will the Euro slide alongside USD into the gutter, or will the EUR become the new reserve currency in the interim?
Then again, the markets could decide to punish the US by buying up the dollar, forcing debt repayment to really, really hurt. But that WILL provide only temporary relief. The USD has been limping along on a ‘TINA’ basis for now, but the fact that “TINA”, does not of course mean that the hunt isn’t on for a better, more suitable ‘A’.
As the US collapses into a SJW-driven high-school drama basket case with nukes, the international grown-ups like Russia, China, India, will be forced to assert themselves in new and robust ways.
I cannot wait for the US to be wiped off the map, personally. They have murdered more people since 1945 than the Germans killed in the Holocaust. The US must be annihilated, and thank God it will (read your bible – the Whore of Babylon never wins). Question is who will rebuild the world on the ashes of the US Empire?
I think it could be Russia – they have a wildly resurgent Orthodox Church behind them. Unlike China, they have long and deep experience in International Diplomacy. They are more ‘mature’ and they are far less alien and creepy to most of the plant’s population than the Chinese CCP state. History shows that you need mass appeal and likeability to rule the world. Russia is widely liked and respected (except by CNN and he Democrats, I guess, … oooooohhhhh … shivers).
China is widely disliked. They are weird, creepy in so many ways, and they have torched much of their goodwill over Covid. They have (some) power for now, but Russia has not outsourced 90% of their industries and manufacturing to China! She is resilient in ways that the US and EU are not. Ask the Germans how their plans for heating during this winter are coming along…
I see China increasingly deferring to Russian leadership as the world finally dismantles the US Evil Empire, and moves to a New World Order. I welcome the chance to work with and cooperate with my Orthodox brothers and sisters in Christ of Holy Mother Russia.
One can hope.
Well, they might wait around for the possibly impending Civil War v2.0 and consequent Balkanization to play out first. I’ve been saying for a couple of years now, as TDS got more and more strident and batshit, that the USA should split up, preferably without a war. But not sure any more – maybe being invaded, and the sooner the better, is just the recipe for sanity and economic recovery North America needs. The US Treasury is hemorrhaging daily and being refilled with new currency. Can’t imagine how they see that playing out long-term as President Turnip keeps spending like a drunken sailor to create the Workers’ Paradise.
I dunno – pass the popcorn please, is just about all I’ve got left at this point.
Worth adding: the new overlords would NOT tolerate fuckery of the sort exhibited by the woke media, protesters, Antifa/BLM, students and their profs on campuses, mass substance abuse and general uselessness: bullets are cheap. But what the hey, they’re pretty much begging for it, so it would be nice to see them get their wish. Happy endings all around AFAIC. 🙂
There may be one fiscally conservative leader left in the world: https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/putin-is-back-to-building-financial-fortress-as-reserves-grow
They will need negative interest rates in order to postpone default. All currencies are headed for that, no matter how much they hope otherwise.
While negative rates may ease the debt burden, they spark a whole host of other problems, such as savers who require low-default risk investments being forced to part with a chunk of their capital on an ongoing basis. So the economy is overtly de-capitalizing itself.
Russia is like a giant farm with a large gas station and gun store – run by oligarchs with A GDP equal to Canada and less than that of Italy, less than 10% of the US GDP. Putin may seem less deranged than most western leaders but he is a psychopath none the less. The US may be technically bankrupt along with all other welfare states, but not about to be surpassed by Russia anytime soon.
I think I prefer Putin to the Quebec wing of the CCP..
Nancy Pelosi told me that all we need is another $3.5 T in deficit borrowing to stimulate the economy and provide jobs for all the Gender Studies graduates in the Federal Dept. of DEI. Oh … and provide direct welfare payments for all the new Haitian immigrants who are suffering from all the institutional white racism. Oh … and to forgive another $2.9T in student “loans”