Papers Please

One man’s journey from the US to Canada. 

How is it relevant to people other than me? I estimate that it took the Canadian government and its contractors at least 25 minutes to deal with 2 people entering Canada. Even if they sped it up substantially, they would get at most 8 people through in an hour.

That doesn’t scale. The border policy for Americans will change later this month. If even 100 North Dakotans wanted to drive up I-29 to Winnipeg in the morning, not close to 100 of them would get through the Emerson border.

And why?

Because of government overkill. I had evidence of both vaccinations and evidence of a negative Covid test in the previous 72 hours. Could I have picked up Covid on one of the 3 airplanes or in the airport? Sure. But the probability was extremely low.

What’s missing from so much of government policy in Canada and the United States is numeracy. Rochelle Walensky, head of the Centers for Disease Control, shows no understanding of simple probability theory, as Jacob Sullum has shown. Whoever put the Canadian policy together shows a lack of numeracy also.

That dog don’t hunt.

20 Replies to “Papers Please”

  1. Yup, those folks really don’t understand statistics. Even those who managed to obtain advanced degrees using “statistically verified” research don’t really understand the statistics that they used in their research thesis papers. The usual practice is to use an advanced statistics computer programs and vary the types and parameters of analysis until you find a “statistically significant” result that you like. If you run the data enough times in enough different ways, you are sure to get some sort of result that you were looking for.

    Never mind that most of these studies cannot be reproduced.

  2. The intention is NOT to be efficient. The intention is to totally destroy the economy so that it can be “Built Back Better” using so-called GREEN methodologies. The Evil Powers That BE (TEPTB) will run the world as a “Techno-Feudalism” paradise for themselves, and you will just shut up and do as you’re told to by your betters.

    1. JohnPeg, You have it all wrong. It’s not, “just shut up and do as you are told by your betters”.
      It’s, = you’ll own nothing, and be happy……right?

      OK, having corrected your statement, I’m going back to my ignorance, getting my beer and snacks, and am watching the Hockey game tonight, followed by the latest movie from Netflix. We are not deserving of such joy and leasure eh!

  3. p-hacking is the bane of most social sciences, and appears all-too-often in the medical and biological sciences, too.  Everyone’s chasing statistical significance so’s they can extract more research grant money for the next phase (whatever that is).

    I’ll never forget what one of my grad profs said to me about virtually all of the stats techniques created over the last 150 years or so: “These all exist to address real or perceived shortcomings in existing datasets; if the original researchers/surveyers had correctly framed their investigations and collected their results, we wouldn’t need most of ’em.”  But we do need them, don’t we?

  4. I went through the border about two weeks back. I got into an argument with the border guard over one of the details of the pre-arrival test. I pulled out a copy of the web site that I printed off Friday afternoon to support my argument. She printed off a copy of the current web page (this was two days later on Sunday) which added two words and undermined my argument. She said that they changed the rules “everyday”. Great way to run a country.

  5. “Rochelle Walensky, head of the Centers for Disease Control, shows no understanding of simple probability theory, as Jacob Sullum has shown. Whoever put the Canadian policy together shows a lack of numeracy also.|

    True. That’s what it looks like.

    But it would be wrong to think that they don’t understand … it’s that they just don’t *&^%$#g care! It’s the arrogance that can only come from a pampered upbringing and the indifference that derives from a government salary.

  6. “Whoever put the Canadian policy together shows a lack of numeracy also.”

    The policy is in place for totalitarian control of people.
    Period.

    …. and the proletariat is good with that.

    Who you gonna call?

  7. Operative question: Why would you want to go to Winnipeg in the first place? I went there a couple of times on business, once in January, it was cold, once in May, it was cold. The local I flew to Winnipeg from Minneapolis with said “It’s not the end of the earth, but you can see it from there”

    Sarc/off

  8. “What’s missing from so much of government policy in Canada and the United States is numeracy. Rochelle Walensky, head of the Centers for Disease Control, shows no understanding of simple probability theory, as Jacob Sullum has shown. Whoever put the Canadian policy together shows a lack of numeracy also.”

    Feature not a bug.
    To enable the current level of theft by government(Also known as Parasitic Overload) a “Lack of numeracy” is essential.
    I argue that a Kleptocracy cannot survive without ignorant and numerically challenged tax payers.
    For once the victims realize who is robbing them,the system falls.
    So this “lack of numeracy” is essential to current government policy.
    For once a productive citizen realizes, 4 out of 10 living on the produce from the other 6,while taking benefits well in excess of that production,is impossible to sustain.
    And that the “help” from this 40% has destroyed the society supporting them.

    Basic maths if I pay 40 000 annually in taxes and the average bureaucrat is paid 120 000 or more ,when you include the cost of housing and administering them..Then you realize there are not 3 of me for every tax sponger..That ratio is 6:4
    Or
    1.5 to1.Now you begin to see why the “average taxpayer” is paying near 50% of their income to taxes..
    And we are still receding further into debt as a nation.
    And any citizen with skills is not in that “average Income” group.

    Thus a lack of numeracy is vital to every person employed inside the State.
    So Public Education is actually working exactly as required.
    One of the reasons cash is being discouraged,is handling money improves basic math skill.
    Well that and employers cannot find high school graduates who can count to 100.

    Western Separation is impossible to avoid,because our Eastern Comrades find it to their benefit to deny the fiscal realities of their policies..
    They have to,because their incomes depend on it.
    So any concept of equality for the Western Citizen,will always be cast aside.

    Yeah well ,good call.”
    We need a bureau of sabotage.

  9. It gets worse. A good friend traveled from Minnesota to Ontario due to her mother’s imminent death (she is a Canadian). She had the same issue at the border but got through. She had a mutual friend’s family farm (vacant) to quarantine at for the two weeks which is located just south of Peterborough on a well known highway. After self taking her second test she was informed that the pre-paid envelope to picked up by Purolator could not be picked up. Purolator apparently cannot pick up a package a short distance from Peterborough and not far north of Port Hope on Highway 28. Lucky for my friend, she had a good friend that would be passing by to Toronto and could swing by to pick up the test.

    Re: ““Whoever put the Canadian policy together shows a lack of numeracy also.”

    I’m reminded of Parks Canada who charge for passage through the Murray Canal near Trenton. The swing bridge attendant passes out a tin cup on a pole to passing boats to collect the fee – $4.90. That’s right, not $5.00. A fine example of government stupidity.

    1. Was at the Barnstable dump. Demo. Scale on then off. Bill came $36.and change. I give the attendant two twenties and two ones. He says I paid too much. Yes I say, this way you can give me a five back and change instead of three ones and change. He’s confused. He hands me back the two ones, and says hell do it his way.

      This is the guy handling the money.
      He’s union, full benefits, pension, $40k+ a year.

  10. Knowing how to count is math, and math is raaaaacccccciiiiist, so here we are.

  11. Trudeau has been clear from before he was christened that he doesn’t like Canadians going to the best, & freest country in the world for enjoyment and most of all spending their money in the US. It deprives him of the funds/entitlements that should be going into his personal slush fund by way of the GST/HST. If you dare to venture out into the US be prepared to be harassed, intimidated and receive maximum inconvenience when you return.

  12. There’s a innumeracy pandemic for sure, but NO this isn’t the issue. The issue is extreme bureaucratic risk aversion.
    Many MANY years ago my business partner and I (small securities firm) came up with a novel approach to our business. We reasoned that the new approach was ethical and that customers would most likely really like it (which turned out to true). We considered asking for the securities commission’s blessing but reasoned that there was a very high probability that it would NOT be approved, viz., that’s it much easier for them to say NO. NO to a good idea has zero risk. YES to a new idea that may not work out has risk. You cannot expect government employees to do risk analysis in the field. And don’t faint but that is probably a good thing. See: Bureaucracy by Ludwig von Mises.

    1. Learned that in the US Army. Everyone in charge, no one responsible.

      Had a jeep. Would not pass inspection, even if like a glass palace you set it up one minute before the inspection, something would of its own fail. Other than that it was a fine crappy down the road jeep.
      Failed company inspection. Failed battalion, division, corps. Solution? Push it out the back of a C-130 with bad chute. Poor thing, the wheels popped right off.
      Kinda feel bad about it to this day.
      Company and Battalion were supposedly happy.
      Few days latter I get a spanky new jeep.

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