The Great American Recovery Watch Goes On High Alert

Americans are optimistic!

The U.S. economy added 266,000 jobs in April, sharply missing economists’ expectations.

The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 6.1% — well below the April 2020 peak of 14.7%, but about twice the pre-crisis level, the Labor Department said in its monthly payroll report, released Friday morning. Economists surveyed by Refinitiv expected the report to show that unemployment fell to 5.8% and the economy added 978,000 jobs.

Reset: Democrats Blamed After U.S. Steel Cancels $1.5B Project in Pennsylvania

Pretty sure that’s already here Inflation May Be Coming

47 Replies to “The Great American Recovery Watch Goes On High Alert”

  1. China doesn’t have a carbon tax and doesn’t regulate carbon levels. Now where do you think all good jobs will be in the future?

    1. I grew up in the Silicon Valley (Santa Clara) in the early and mid 1960’s … when orchard after orchard were being leveled to build HP Facilities and all manner of electronics factories. Then … in the 1980’s … the environmentalists started testing groundwater and found multiple deadly chemicals … and shut it all down.

      https://svtc.org/about-us/history/

      China has no such thing as the SVTC. Is it any wonder Apple (and every other chip fabricator) moved all its manufacturing to China? This all started long before nutbars discovered Co2 was a “pollutant”. So … all those Apple products sold in pristine, clean, white and glass stores … are manufactured where they can dump toxic chemicals far out of range of the eco-woke living in Palm Alto.

    1. Roger Daltry warns that we don’t get fooled again

      https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2021/05/07/the-whos-roger-daltrey-slams-the-woke-generation-theyre-creating-a-miserable-world-for-themselves-weve-seen-the-communist-system-fail/

      Mocking the “woke” by saying he’s BEEN in communist countries during their heyday … and anyone who actually wants that is sadly misguided.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WX_96uKZ7yQ

      And the morals that they worship will be gone …

    2. Years ago (during the Iraq war), I took my daughter to a concert at Molson Park, Barrie to see Green Day. One of the opening acts was a punk band called Anti-Flag. At one point, the lead singer starts ranting about how punk rock is misunderstood and how it’s all about love, and tolerance, and all that other crap. Not long after, he’s screaming “Fuck Bush! Fuck Bush!” (the president, not the past-time). Gotta love the disconnect.

  2. Shockingly, loudly and proudly proclaiming you’re going to raise taxes at the first opportunity, even if you haven’t done so quite yet, will cause employers to adjust their plans accordingly. Biden’s proposed “infrastructure” legislation is loaded with tax increases. Also, in areas where things are slow to reopen there are still businesses closing down because they can’t hang on any longer. Then there’s the whole let’s decimate the energy sector thing.

    We’ll have to see if this is the start of a longer-term trend of “unexpectedly”, since one can make the argument that the job growth for January-March should be credited to Trump. But man, did those economists surveyed ever miss the mark.

    1. Not to worry! As John Kerry said … you can always learn how to manufacture and install solar panels! Or retrofit insulate homes. There will be an avalanche of Green New Deal Jobs pouring out on America …

      1. And then there’s the fun job of being a maintenance technician for offshore wind-farm turbine… out there in a winter gale, 30 meters up, trying to get that ice-bound windmill somehow back online. Sounds like a job just about as nice as Gulf of Alaska crab-boat crew.

    2. Xiden Zhou is so damn proud of how many people he put back on welfare and food stamps.

  3. “Many employers report struggling to find available workers. Supply constraints are also limiting further improvement in output.”

    Have they considered…oh, I don’t know…offering honest men an honest day’s wage for an honest day’s work?

    If they must cut costs somewhere to do this, maybe they should consider that what little useful work Karen has been doing at home for a year could be done in Brazil or India or the Philippines for a fraction of the cost, by someone who actually needs the work, has a better command of English, and who isn’t drunk by noon every workday.

    Consider too that her more resourceful sister, let’s call her Kaitlynn, has been moonlighting as a gig employee on government time for want of anything constructive to do at her “real” job. Many of the women who allegedly dropped out of the labour force haven’t. They just don’t care to pay taxes on their pin money. Taxes are what they have hubby for.

    1. A big reason is all of the unemployment insurance benefits being thrown at people. Quite a few of them can get more money from UI than taking a job. People saw this coming and warned about it when Congress passed the first stimulus bill last March. The Democrats are now talking about making these enhanced benefits permanent.

      If you’re an employer who can’t afford to or is unwilling to pay wages that outdo the UI benefits, good luck. It’s all over the hospitality industry, for example, particularly restaurants, and in plenty of other sectors of the economy too.

      1. Depends, as so much does, on the demographic.

        The official line is that EI won’t cover most people’s expenses for long, and only the truly work-shy would take it over an actual job.

        If you’re a white heterosexual man who can’t depend on the kindness of a gainfully employed and tame white heterosexual man to pay your living expenses, that’s generally true.

        Karen, as long as hubby’s money and patience with his lovely wife hold out, can afford to be much pickier, and EI will genuinely make her pickier still.

        Were she let go tomorrow morning, the pin money Kaitlynn is making but not telling the EI people or the taxmen about would make her pickier.

        And that is why men have lower unemployment rates than women. Men are more likely to take what they are offered, because their only other other option is to starve and freeze. Women have a higher “reservation wage,” namely daddy’s and hubby’s.

      2. Puerto Rico ran itself into poverty when residents realized they could receive more income through social benefits than from gainful employment. The island’s infrastructure deteriorated through neglect. It took a hurricane to wake them up, somewhat.

    2. These issues have been discussed lately on John Batchelor’s show (which, I think, now goes by the name CBS Eye on the World now that he’s changed networks).

    3. With lumber prices rising 270% … I’m wondering WHO ?? is getting $$ Filthy rich?? Loggers? Mills? Lumber Retailers? All the low wage workers in those industries? Yeah … right

      1. Kenji, Some local scuttlebutt I heard the other day is that Canadian lumber is cheaper in California than it is in Canada. Don’t know if it’s true, but that crap ain’t cheap in either country. A current local price for an 8 foot 2 x 4 is close to ten Dollars Canadian. Which I would reckon that at $7.50 US.

        1. $7.62 at my local Home Depot. 2x4x8ft “Premium Standard Grade” (whatever the hell THAT imaginary Grade is … ). #1DF? #2DF? Sheesh.

          1. How about $60-plus (USD) for a sheet of 1/2″ OSB???

            I suspect their “premiuim-standard-grade” for studs is the crap that I’m seeing being hauled down the highway most every day now. A lot of those studs are cut from trees that could only make one 2 x 4 board with the rest being waste sent to the co-gen plant.

  4. There’s that word again – ‘unexpectedly’. Almost as if their understanding of reality is consistently wrong.

  5. Canada is even worse. Over 200,000 jobs lost and a major increase (almost 300,000) to people working less than half their usual hours.
    Awful numbers with devastating real life consequences.

    1. Not sure I’ve ever seen a measurement of “underemployment” … which my sensibilities are saying is epically massive.

      1. Well, obviously.

        Do you really think government statistical bureaux are going to admit that most government employees never had a full day’s worth of constructive work to do even before the Wuhan flu scare?

        Most employers that actually had to make payroll out of accounts receivable and couldn’t just tap a central bank or the Chinese for a loan would have let Karen and Kaitlynn go a long, long time ago. What little they actually do that is any use to anybody can be outsourced or automated, and in the real world usually is.

  6. Duh they keep claiming the logical outcome of their interference,stealing and destruction..is “Unexpected”.
    Maybe the fools who keep returning to these “Fonts of wisdom” might stop and consider..
    Being consistently wrong does not an “expert” make..
    Well except in government.

    1. Yeah Osumashi, Ain’t that the truth. Gotta wonder where their heads are at. They are so convinced Trump was evil, that they prefer this deprivation and inflation to the Trump economy…go figure!

  7. Reset from: Incredible presidential performance in our “first 100 days,” to: It’s all Trump’s fault, we’re fixing his mess.
    Destroying liberty, its institutions, and free choice, now a regal court system. Different day. Same political kleptocratic hitchhikers.
    They can drop every ball they’re handed but instead of accountability we get bait and switch with non issues, unquantifiable.
    Is it normal in our society to not be allowed to write a letter to the editor, that conservatives and their leaders can be disappeared?
    That’s what’s happened with the tech and social media oligarchs. We have boy blunder trying to decree it here with C-10.
    They’re not the slightest bit interested in a debate with anyone, so they throw up issue smokescreens and kill seniors due to covid.
    The consequence for allowing needless deaths in long term care? Pats on the back and election wins. Unenlightened despots.
    For censoring the truth while promoting falsehoods, for using their market power to silence opposing opinion and revelations?
    For defying voters with policies and measures clearly at odds with national political opinion, indeed her political culture?
    For politicians here and there quite comfortable with the idea of mindreading ideologues posing as “fact checkers?”
    Which has a worse record with the truth? The media or statist politicians? It’s a close race, except they’re on the same team.

    The “resistance” is starting, but where it should – at the grassroots – at school board and union meeting, at AGMs, at local elections, with national votes coming soon to both countries. But is it enough?
    Clearly the censoring collectivists think it might be. Step up or be stepped on.

    1. This reminds me of the “Three Envelopes” joke…

      New guy takes over a big organization, and when he gets to his new desk he finds a note and three sealed envelopes from the previous head of the organization.

      The note says, “Welcome to your new job, and congratulations on your promotion! In an effort to help you with your transition to this very challenging job, I have prepared some advice for you that I found most helpful to me as I dealt with the challenges of this position. You will find here three envelopes, each of which will provide helpful advice as you meet the challenges that you are sure to face.

      “The first envelope should be opened for its advice once you discover that there are serious difficulties that must be dealt with immediately after you assume control of this organization. Open the envelope then and heed its advice.

      “The second envelope must not be opened until you have led this organization for 6 months, but still find you are facing serious challenges.

      “The third envelope must wait until you have served for one year, and you find that the challenges have still not been overcome, and your board of directors is pressing for serious changes to be made.”

      The new CEO looks at the sealed envelopes, puts them away in his office safe and gets on with his new job.

      At the first crisis, where the CEO must quiet the Board, Stockholders, and internal quarrels between managers, he pulls out the first envelope, opens it, and reads: “The first thing you must do is issue a statement that you are new to the position, you are still learning its ins and outs, still just beginning to understand the problems that must be solved, and that they should be patient. All will be well soon.”

      And so, the statement is issued, all the critics are quieted, and life goes on for a while. At the 6-month point of the new CEO’s tenure, more crises have surfaced, and some old ones remain to be solved. The Board and stockholders are clamoring for change, and so the second envelop is retrieved and opened. it says “Prepare a statement for release, and say that it has taken you some time to fully understand the problems the company faces. However, it is clear that the root of these problems is the fault of the previous CEO, and you are working diligently to undo the damage that was previously done. Since we now understand the underlying causes of our organizational difficulties, we will soon have a smooth-functioning and very successful organization.”

      With this statement issued, all again was well and the company proceeded along calmly for several more months, until more problems developed and profitability continued to suffer. Again the Directors, the stockholders, the employees, and even the public were vigorously calling for serious actions to solve the ongoing crisis.

      And so, the beleaguered CEO retrieves the third and final envelope, in the expectation the it will again save him from the crisis. With eager anticipation, he opens the envelope to see the message that will be his ultimate salvation. He reads: “Prepare three envelopes…”

  8. Well if the UN says Food Inflation is running at 30%, now add in home building costs, fuel costs and Carbon Tax’s which is just an overarching form of Super GST Tax on everything that moves or heats your home etc, Subtract all the fake economic data to the amount of all the free printed and borrowed money from governments to people and corporations. Add that debt onto all the other debt being carried by everybody not working for a year due to insane politicians locking everything down.
    Canada is done and so is the USA.
    By mid summer/late summer I still say we will see an economic collapse that will make 1930 look like a picnic.
    Alberta looks like a collapsed economy already. Never seen so may potholes and empty shuttered business’s. And very few rigs moving saw one service rig all winter. Very low traffic, homes for sale, people trying to get out from under mortgages because nobody is working.
    Son works for huge oil company, word is they will no longer be hiring or retaining people from eastern canada. Will only hire Alberta and Sask, going forward.
    A lot of folks losing their shit and getting worse everyday. Hopefully for the benefit and survival of Alberta. Canada breaks up. Being inside the Gulag does not work.
    “We Can Ignore Reality. But We Cannot Ignore The Consequences of Ignoring Reality”
    https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/world-food-prices-soar-april-fears-social-unrest-mount

  9. Oregon set aside a $20 million fund for small businesses to get some help. So many applied that the amount disbursed to each business will be between $1 and $2 thousand. That will keep their doors open. /sarc

    When I apply for jobs occasionally I get a followup. The last three companies I spoke with had between 800 to 1500 applications fora single job listing, In the first three hours after posting!

    The estimate for small restaurant closings last year was 120,000 for the US. The restaurant assoc. now estimates for this year the projections show 280,000 closures based on data from applications for aid from the government.. Now add live venues closing, companies that used to supply these restaurants, reduced home building due to materials costs, All will have a ripple effect up and down the economy.

    And the biggest impact? Raising taxes on people who would otherwise start new businesses. Raising taxes on homeowners, raising taxes on gasoline, enacting green new deal emission standards that will drive manufacturing out of many states. Blocking access to raw materials and mining by Biden’s decree. Throw in destabilizing the energy grid by continuing shut down dependable sources of power to force more green energy and there will almost certainly be a 2008 style downturn, or worse.

  10. Starting to see predictions that food prices are going to double this year, some saying food riots coming. This year. Stop buying soft drinks, snacks, beer, only the necessities.

        1. I’ve tried homemade beer on more than one occassion…it always tasted like shit. I’ll stick with buying mine even if the cost goes up.
          And Robert from Ottawa, you’re right…beer is a necessity. Cheers!

  11. After throwing around money right, left and centre and mandating a rise in the minimum wage there’s inflation!?!? I’m shocked I tell you, shocked!
    Now don’t get me wrong. I don’t have a problem with the government printing and distributing more money. It’s just that when they do so they should they remember to print and distribute more of the goods and services that money is supposed to buy. Sadly, since the time of the emperor Diocletian, they seem to have overlooked that second part.

    1. When governments print and distribute money, why do they always forget about me?

  12. Dementocrats – working for the common man, NOT.
    All they care about is their billion dollar financeers and their captive voting populations. Oh yes, and nature.

  13. ” Inflation May Be Coming…”

    Of course it’s already here. An overextended stock market and a housing market that defies gravity. Soon you will notice it at the supermarket too.

  14. We keep using the term inflation like the value of everything is increasing when in reality the government keeps printing so much currency that it’s not the value of those things increasing it’s that the currency is losing its worth at a rapid rate.
    When the currency loses its worth, the authority of the country that uses it is lost and the nation that issues a currency that holds worth takes over.
    At that point any authority to tax the citizens is gone.

    1. Classic inflation, too much money chasing fewer and fewer goods.

    2. Joseph,regarding”We keep using the term inflation like the value of everything is increasing ..” Have we ever seen this situation in reality?
      For my experience is always the latter.”in reality the government keeps printing so much currency that it’s not the value of those things increasing it’s that the currency is losing its worth at a rapid rate.”
      That blatant lie of “National Debt” has crippled the Canadian Economy for 60 years.
      “Investing in social programmes” Oh Yeah.
      Now the parasites have debased our unit of exchange to that of policy paper,we will be reverting to barter..
      Barter is interesting,in that the lack of trust,leaves little fat for parasites..
      Trade requires something of value to your trading partners.
      Theft only requires force.

      Some where I read,”Kings have gold.Gentlemen have silver.Peons have barter”.

      You make the case for Separation with the last “When the currency loses its worth, the authority of the country that uses it is lost and the nation that issues a currency that holds worth takes over.
      At that point any authority to tax the citizens is gone.”
      For when nothing of value,remains of a civic institution..Why keep paying for its “services”.?

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