POTUS 2020: Results Time

2020 84 Comments

Real Clear Politics chart shows votes actually counted [as opposed to early reporting which is based on registered voter turnout] listed by poll closing time. Give it a moment or two to load.

New York Times interactives with county by county breakdowns, including a more restrained version of the election needles.

There’s such a flood of information, I’m not going to try to keep up, other than to share interesting tidbits here and there.

I know there was some nervousness early with these key states, (screencapped just before 9pm Eastern)

Death of Expertise: @CaseyMattox Fox says 89% likely NC going Biden at the same moment NYT says 76% likely NC going Trump. Just now.

@RichLowry — Member of a Trump team just called to say that they think that Trump is winning about 70 percent of the Cuban vote in FLA, up from 54 percent in 2016, and that he’s posted huge gains in heavily Venezuelan and Colombian areas/neighborhoods. In short, it’s not just Cubans Final Trafalgar poll of Florida was Trump +3 and they look as though they may have been closest (again).

FYI, I have NO NETWORKS on — no radio and no TV (though I may pull up Bannon’s War Room soon on Youtube). I’m following returns only on my Twitter follows.

CNN is walking back the call on Virginia for Biden. Earlier poll trackers pointed out deep blue Fairfax county is underperforming.

One thing that has everyone in unanimous agreement.

Chinese Yuan is tanking.

Maybe too early… but it’s looking promising.

The night (week?) isn’t over, but the Young Turks are butt hurt and unloading on Dem strategists, and actually doing some decent analysis of Democrat errors.

84 Replies to “POTUS 2020: Results Time”

  3. The text below the needles are interesting. If Biden wins 3 or 2 or 1 state, they say Biden will likely win. If Trump wins all three ” Either candidate could win. And it could take days or longer to know. ”

    Interesting.

  5. Got home a few moments ago and turned on Fox. The first two ‘pundits’ I saw were Donna Brazile and Chris Wallace. FML.

    1. It’s not good to fall into a cocoon or silo or echo chamber. It is good to hear your opponents real voice, if only to remind you how foolish they are. It is also good to hear their views as it helps you hone your own views, helps you build a better argument for your ideas. On a rare occasion they will bring up a good point which helps everybody move forward.

  6. Florida does not look good for Trump at the moment. Biden is running well ahead of where Clinton ran in Hillsborough and Pinellas counties in 2016.

    I hope I’m wrong.

    1. Yeah.. These early numbers aren’t inspiring. Way, way too close thus far. Florida is going to be razor thin. Without that, that’s about all she wrote right there, because it would probably mean at least a couple of other razor thin states would also turn blue.

      I said some time ago this election has felt way too close to 2012. I refrained from making an actual prediction, but I’m as mentally prepared as I think I can be to wake up to president elect Biden.

      1. Trump is doing better than expected in Miami-Dade and the red panhandle is now coming in. Biden is not happy in Florida anymore.

      2. Wow. Do you have your eyes closed, or what? It’s way too early to be making those kinds of judgments Trump is doing very well, with generally higher margins than in 2016. He’s way up in Florida. And according to exist polls there is getting 45% of the Hispanic vote. That’s huge. What also has to be remembered is that in almost all cases, urban votes (most of which are for Biden) come in first.

        1. Look at the timing of his post. He was correct at that time the numbers did not look as good as they look now. First they count early ballots, these show democrat lead then they count today’s ballots and the situation changes. Expect this pattern to repeat throughout the night. It will be a nail biter to the end.

  9. Cuban\Hispanic vote breaking strongly for Trump R +11 in Florida. (The Kamala socialism vid probably helped there…)

    Black \ Urban voters also breaking R +3 \ R +5.5 respectively.

    Prosit!!

    Hans Rupprecht, Commander in Chief
    1st Saint Nicolaas Army
    Army Group “True North

  12. I can’t understand why they’ve called Virginia for Biden already. With 79% of the vote counted, Trump is up 320,000 votes. I see you’ve already covered that Morris.

    1. I was wondering the same thing. Trump is way out in front but they’ve called it for Biden?

      1. They haven’t gotten the mystery ballot boxes in yet.. You know, the ones that have more ballots than voters, where 120% of the votes are for Biden..

      2. Huge numbers of votes yet to count in the northern Virginia cities adjacent to Washington, DC. Those places are heavily Democrat.

    2. Interesting that you saw my comment on Virginia. I deleted it before the timer ran out because the numbers started changing as I filed my comment. Thought my math was already obsolete…ha, guess not.
      So, lesson learned: comments are immediately viewable, before you delete them. Didn’t know that.

  14. America just needs to overcome the coup attempt. The left layed out how their going to try and do it. All the plans they have in place to “stop repulicans from stealing the election” are the ways THEY plan to steal the election. If they are able to steal this they are NOT going to allow another interuption of “transforming America”.

  15. They just dropped the percent reporting for Virginia from 85%+ to 45%, with no change in number of votes counted. Anyone know how many people have voted there in the past? Just checked – it appears as though the updated number is likely the more accurate one.

  16. US polling seems largely shambolic because most of it is not at all intended to elicit reliable empirical data about the state of voting intentions. Its primary purpose is battlespace prep, i.e., a deliberate attempt to generate skewed data, usually via deceptive or slanted differential oversampling, in order to produce opinion-shaping headlines aimed at affecting campaign activities and expenditures in the closing weeks of a campaign, and to suppress the opponent’s voter turnout on D-Day. It’s not quite as overtly corrupt as @Jack pushing “@TrumpCollapse” to the top of the Twitter recommended feeds list, but it has the same purpose.

    This is why you were seeing stories about how a campaign’s “internal numbers” are disagreeing with “public polls”. Internal polling has to generate accurate data or campaigns wouldn’t do it (i.e. you’re trying to deceive the enemy, not your own side). As an example, it’s why Biden suddenly showed up in Minnesota, a state that hasn’t gone Republican since Nixon in 1972, on the last Friday of the campaign. Public polling showed that he was 6 points ahead of Trump in the state, but his internal polls were obviously showing something different. So were Trump’s, obviously, since he was there on Friday as well. Neither campaign would have spent precious time attempting to move or shore up the vote in a state that was really a 6-point ‘lock’ for one of the two sides.

    TL;DR – US public polling only looks incompetent because the vast majority of it is not polling, but a psy-op. By tomorrow we’ll know who the real pollsters are, and who are (mostly Democrat) propagandists.

    1. Too many have seen questions like “Are you a racist, or will you vote for Biden?” Yes, I know… but I’ve seen some poll questions that bad.

      Misleading poll questions lead to misleading poll results. The only real poll is the election.

      Good captcha! 15 seconds to solve!

  17. Bannon’s War Room / Election Night Special…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVWvZFWBE9Y

    *Richard Baris from “Big Data Polling” will be on again in awhile, he goes county by county in the toss up areas to unpack why some states may be called when we really don’t have access to the data showing how the non counted counties have voted in the past. Interesting guy…

    and, Daily Wire:
    https://www.dailywire.com

    No time for MSM, though I do ask on National Post what happened to Hunter’s laptop.

    1. The conservative twitter I’m following are ALL pissed at Fox. Some, and these are hardcore Trumpers, have switched to CNN and are saying it’s much better. I’m like Kate. No TV coverage (golf channel on in the background) but I’m listening to Salem Radio at 960 The Patriot.

      1. CNN so far has just been almost all Wolf and John King geek guy next to his big screen. There has been almost no typical CNN lefty pundit talk (yet). I have been kinda enjoying the geeky, numbers-only CNN so far. Once the lunatics start to editorialize I’ll switch somewhere else.

  19. Ive been on War Room all evening.
    Richard Baris from Big Data Polling called Florida 30 to 40 minutes ago.
    Ive seen Baris in the past days NOT even look at notes on the podcast. Bannon asked where are you’re notes. Baris: ” I don’t have notes. I am completely immersed in the data. He’s been near 100% all night.

    Now he’s calling for patience.
    IT WILL BE A TRUMP VICTORY.
    MAYBE EVEN VIRGINIA!!!!

    1. Its a totally different election cycle with so much mail in voting.
      Dems saying no crowds, Dont Vote In Person!!! Its too dangerous becayse of Covid.
      Dems get lots of early results but fade…..

  20. Real Clear Politics is stuck at Biden at 131,Trump 107 for an hour.
    War Room has better numbers for Trump.

    1. None of the media networks wan to give ANYTHING to TRUMP, not even Fox, but they’re sure quick to hand it to BIden.

      By the way, caught CTV for 5 minutes…….don’t bother, its all Liberal caterwauling.

      “What will the world think of America, doing this again???? How can the world get along with America at all????” These Liberal easterners are idiots

  21. Ohio breaking for Trump 50.5% now…

    North Carolina breaking for Trump, Baris claims will win by 1.5% as night goes on…

    Some Pennsylvania counties breaking strong to Trump but still too early…

    Prosit!!

    Hans Rupprecht, Commander in Chief
    1st Saint Nicolaas Army
    Army Group “True North

  22. Look at what this poll watcher from PA, Qwinn, posted over at Althouse

    Holy crap. Holy f*king crap.

    So my precinct in Bucks County closed. Get a load of these numbers.

    Final registration numbers were 253 Republicans and 230 Democrats.

    Final VOTE was 175 votes for Biden and 332 votes for Trump.

    MASSIVE crossover of Democrats voting for Trump.

    MASSIVE.

    If that went national, Trump would get 70% of the vote.

    Biden was counting on winning suburban women in places like Bucks big.

  23. Nothing back from Idaho, Nevada, and points west. With leading, Trump at 277. Fox isn’t calling some that are 90% counted!

    Betting parlors and Nasdaq think it’s a Trump win, and are reacting accordingly. Babylon Bee shows their news credentials yet again…

    https://babylonbee.com/news/cnn-the-winner-of-the-election-will-be-impossible-to-call-on-election-day-unless-biden-is-ahead
    “Trump and his supporters may still try to interfere in the election. They will insist that the election is over just because Trump is ahead,” explained CNN anchor Don Lemon. “But rest assured, we will not announce results until Joe Biden is victorious!”

  24. This business about a large number of mail-in votes to be counted over several more days is a recipe for fraud.

    With support from the postal worker unions, the Democrats can probably easily exercise all kinds of subterfuge and I simply don’t trust this part of the process at all.

    Likely Trump ballots can disappear, extra Democrat ballots can be inserted, and the work will only begin on that when the orchestraters see what needs to happen. No point in tampering with the votes in safe or unreachable states.

    The fact that this must be as obvious to Trump as it is here, tells me that there is potential here for a real crisis to develop, if he comes out and says (in a week or two) that he cannot accept results in two or three close states because of likely fraud, then people on both sides are only going to believe their side’s narrative.

    I hope that Trump seals the deal tonight and we avoid this prospect. I am faintly optimistic with the vote totals known so far. But maybe the answer is a double-exclusionary electoral college, further reducing large state numbers on the basis of urban populations. Urban populations are predominantly too stunned to get a vote and should just be along for the ride while smarter people in the real world decide these matters.

    (sorry David Frum, your mommy should have told you this)

    1. I’m looking forwards to seeing if the fraud-bait activities early on in Pennsylvania will ever be prosecuted. Not allowing invigilators from one side, active vote hustling in the line-ups to vote, visible posters advertising one side posted on the outside wall of the voting location, more than one person in the voting booth, all on film.

      Dispute the state. Send the lesser minions to jail with federal charges. Just like dealing with Antifa, don’t support them, make sure they know that what they did was wrong and that they’re being prosecuted to the full extent of the law to prevent others from thinking that this is a good idea for at least another generation. Not that they’ll see the next generation, they committed some serious crimes, and need to face some serious time.

    2. I would love to be in the brain of David Frum right now. His anti-Trump certainty has been his calling card for four years and it is starting to circle the drain. Better keep the sharp cutlery away from him.

  25. I’ve been watching Sargon of Akkad’s stream on YouTube for coverage of the election. Sargon got an interview on Infowars and also they cut to the Young Turks to see Cenk melting down.

    2. You’re right. I tuned in after seeing it here. The Young Turks are still deranged, and can’t understand why people wouldn’t disagree with them. The cognitive dissonance is quite something!

      Though I do miss the eye candy (with mute on). Cenk is looking a lot older, and I would never tune in to watch him (full body shudder).

  27. 9:30pm MST/11:30 EST
    The CTV pundits are starting to lose their minds.
    They are talking about theoretical US Supreme Court decisions installing Trump in power. They are talking about wholesale fraud in Texas and Pennsylvania. Pretty rich coming from a media outlet that repeatedly told us Trump was lying had no proof of supposed voter fraud.

    CBC and CTV are covering the arrival of SUVs with mail ballots arriving in Houston Texas.
    CBC is praying for Texas. LOL.

    1. One of those clearly puzzling and stupid Trump moves was his heckling and hounding and humiliation of John McCain. Why kick a dying cancer patient and decorated veteran? Trump sure could use an extra 100,000 votes in Arizona about now.

  30. Fox is having a BAD night. Early call on Arizona giving it to Biden has all kinds of people calling BS. White House is pissed it was called too early and are speaking out especially considering Fox only called Florida minutes ago.

    **At @FoxNews, they wait to call a race for Trump even when he’s up by crazy margins, but rush to call a state against Trump even when lots of votes yet to be counted. This is what happens when you hire a Democratic partisan to run your data team.**

    https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law/status/1323852067119587328

    FoxNN is going full Drudge

  32. I’ve done some figuring, and Trump has won by a comfortable margin. Winning Nevada would just be gravy.

    But what is the NYT’s doing? Call some of these states. Trump is leading Florida by 4.8% with 4% of the vote to come in. I think you’re safe.

    1. Trump has won re-election. He will take Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina and won’t need Pennsylvania, also a win.
      Biden has Nevada only, so has no path to 270. Trump is well ahead in the states noted above so far.
      Biden is a disgusting criminal who just stoked up the mobs with his insinuations and fantasies about “counting all the votes.”
      Trump calls Biden’s threat to litigate and riot and gets Twitter twacked. Trump must purge them all once and for all.
      What will change that. How do Democrats plan to overcome their deficits. Mail in votes? Democrat friendly counties.
      Sorry, insignificant with only net votes mattering, and on the second point, Democrat friendly large cities are the first to report.
      The Senate race is tightening up though, but looks like they’ll hold, with most of the milquetoast neo-cons wimps out.
      About 124.5 millions votes counted thus far. 128.7 million voted in 2016, for a difference of 4.2 million so far.
      How does that deliver Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to Biden? I repeat myself, but Biden knows and cued the rioters.

      1. Looks like a slim Trump loss in Arizona. Shot himself in the foot.
        Maybe next time he won’t act like a little child and humiliate a popular war veteran (McCain).
        If he loses Penn then he will have to flip Nevada and then come from behind in the Nebraska Congressional District.

      1. Fox’s democrat stat expert is 100% certain, cuz models.

        WH claims there are still a Million votes To count, and as we’ve seen, Republicans are heavy voters on ED. This is a joke.
        Count the votes. Love to see that POS statistician fired, after saying there was no way to win for Trump.
        All networks have been slow playing Trump’s wins and leads, while quickly acting for Biden. The fix is in.

  35. Great news for the Democrats, that shipment of copy machine toner arrived at Soros International.

  36. Biden – I believe we’re on track to win this election. Can we get a drug check on stumblin’, mumblin’ Joe?

    BWAHAHAHAHA! youtube feed crashing, down from 500k to 150k viewers while Joe is talking!

    “Look, we could know the results as earl….” crash. Thread down under 120k viewers now.

    Facebook took us down. Over 500,000 watching on YouTube, we don’t know for sure what happened yet, be sure to join… Bounced back to 320,000 within 30 seconds.

  37. Trump wins Ohio and Florida, Biden takes Arizona, Minnesota as battleground votes trickle in on election night. Fox News

    1. Trump right now needs any two of the following: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and it is all over. He is leading in all three.

      1. Hold on thar. Those stuffed ballot boxes we be coming into play after we fill them but holy crap this is gonna take more paper than we thought.
        Does Staples make delivery after midnight?

        1. No doubt about it, in Philadelphia workers counting votes went home for the night, because you know they got their union mandated break and this has nothing to do with election fraud, it could never happen there.

          My prediction at the moment is Wisconsin and Michigan will go Trump but Pennsylvania and Georgia can go either way.

        1. Lots of mail-ins yet to be counted in the Atlanta area. Georgia is leaning Trump, but still not for sure yet.

          At 1:35am EST Trump starting to feel at little better about Pennsylvania.

          1. 1:55 EST: RCP has 99% of Gerogia counted with Trump at 50.7% and Bidet at 48.1% yet NYT still says “tilting Bidet”.

          2. “Tilting into the bidet” is definitely one way to describe the incompetent Democratic campaign and its media backers like the NY Times! Soon to be flushed away.

  38. My last count was 289 Trump.

    I was a Fox fan until the Murdoch boys took over. Megyn Kelly didn’t help either.

    Hannity, Ingraham, and Tucker are it. I wouldn’t be surprised if they resigned in disgust after tonight. Come to think of it, where are they tonight?

    Wallace, Donna? Really? I was shaking my head until I found out about the Clintonista running the analysis. What a joke.

  39. I am confused when I see hardly any turnout for Biden but yet he has half the votes.

    Is there that many stupid people out there?

    2. At 3:00 AM EST here is the turnout:

      Biden: 50.6% of popular vote
      Trump: 49.4%
      (Biden was always expected to win the popular vote but he is not doing nearly as well as predicted. The Electoral College votes are, of course, still up for grabs)

  40. Realclear politics showing Georgia with 99% of votes counted, North Carolina with 100% counted but nobody will call them. In favour of …. well, we all know why they won’t call them.

    1. They can’t call them, they’re waiting for the semis of mail in votes to be dropped off from the local cemeteries.

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