Judith Curry -- New paper: Arctic sea ice extent is greater now than at any time during the Holocene except during the Little Ice Age.
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Yes but that's WEATHER, not CLIMATE - how often do you need to be told??? /sarc
I LOVE the cherry-picked Satellite sea ice data which “starts” in 1979 in order to gin-up the “historic” sea ice extent. Roll back the record (to the actual start of satellite sea ice records) ... and all the doomsayers lose their entire argument.
And when citing the sea ice “records” of our military polar submarine expeditions “back to 1958” ... please cite WHAT those records actually ARE. The impressions of 77yo retired submariners? Or actual measurements across the entire Arctic?
The subterfuge of Global Warmists is manifest.
“New paper” first published February 2017.
So? Why don't you comment on the content?
All I can see is a very brief abstract of the paper.
The problem, that I've mentioned before, is that climate science compares accurate, precise data using modern technology (high resolution data) with proxies that can only give much less accurate, less precise data that smooths out hundreds of years of yearly variability (low resolution data). Then they report that 2017 was the worst year for X in whatever thousand years. Really? The Roman Warming Period stretched from 250bc to 400ad : how do they know that X was worse in 2017 than 103bc or 45ad? X can be anything from Arctic sea ice extent to record breaking summer temperatures to the sea temperature in the North Atlantic. Uncertainty and variability is presented in an incredibly dishonest manner by the catastrophic global warming alarmists.
Tree rings are often presented as more accurate and precise but the assumption is that the growth rate is mostly dependent on temperatures. Not really. My favorite provincial forest was wiped out by fire in the early 20th century but fire releases the seeds of lodgepole pine so the lodgepoles are all about the same age. If you walk through the forest you'll notice the variability in size of those pines are immense. In fact, some of the biggest lodgepoles have fallen in the last couple of decades while smaller ones remain. Obviously, things like light, wind, water, nutrients, microclimates, etc are bigger variables than temperatures. To see more of the problems with sample and selection bias in tree rings in climate science search for "the most influential tree in the world".
the only problem I have with your post is that you refer to modern data collection as "high" resolution, it is not high, it medium resolution, and to the lower end of medium, other wise, great post.
I am - the post is incorrect. It’s not new.
The content of the article is not in dispute from me.
If we are going to point out fake or incorrect news of our opponents we need to hold ourselves to the same standards.
There's obviously problems with sea and land data (see wuwt temperature station project) but satellites, weather balloons and the newer argos I'd consider high resolution. More generally though, I meant that the modern world can put an exact time and place on their measurements, proxy data is the amalgamation of a large period (300 years, for example).
See, the problem there is if they showed the error bars, and people realized that the effects they're talking about are smaller than the error bars, then they couldn't push their agenda.
Yep. It's misleading science and science reporting. What I also find curious is how many academics, who clearly see the problems in their fields, fail to recognize the same patterns of dishonesty (deception?) in other fields. The M.O. in climate science is basically identical.
There's a name for the effect where a person with knowledge of an issue reads a newspaper and recognizes the mistakes but then flips through the rest of the paper and assumes the rest of the reports aren't also full of errors...but my memory fails me.
It's the Gell-Mann effect.
It's the Gell-Mann Effect.
Thank you.
"Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray's case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the "wet streets cause rain" stories. Paper's full of them.
In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know."
Michael Crichton