The Real Causes for Deficit Spending

| 14 Comments

My apologies in advance and did not mean to butt in here, but I believe these data will prove vital for anybody out there debating the left about the cause of the West's chronic deficits/debts.


14 Comments

This is fantastic, that you Aaron.

Now,if you could get that onto a few leftie blogs,either here,or the dead tree industry,the resulting fun would be enormous! Well done. Thanks Aaron.

Q: Who knew socialism (money transfers) would make up more than 50% of deficit spending?
A: Anyone who wants deficit spending!

There's a lot of socialists out there.

Nice charts. As you say, wasted on the Lefties. But still nice.

60+% of total government spending is "social programs", otherwise known as VOTE BUYING. More than half of which is now borrowed money, despite the total taxation on most citizens being about 50% of their total income.

In Rome it was bread and circuses. Probably about the same % of spending. Didn't turn out well, as I recall.

Government began to borrow from private sources in the 70's after Trudeau changed the Bank of Canada Act in 1974.. Banks love socialist spending. Transfers wealth from the middle class to the already extremely wealthy. Sounds like just what the good socialists ordered.

Hi, Captain C.

I put up a comment a while ago, and it didn't make it to the comment section. Did you not like it? Or was it too off topic?

Harper can brag all he wants about his financial prowess, but truth be known the federal government has downloaded many of their fiscal problems to the provinces who in turn downloaded them to municipalities. At the end of the day the hapless taxpayer is still on the hook for everything. To add insult to injury then burdened with the costs and hassles of redundant layers of bureaucracy.

What Cap has presented is only part of the picture. It explains where the growth in spending took place but not when. In the early 1970s and before (post WW2) the typical pattern of US federal government spending was about 17% of total GDP collected in revenue and about 18% of total GDP spent that year in total spending.

However, this changed drastically in about 2006. There the revenues declined a bit to about 16%, but expenditures shot up to about 23%. The reason was the Democrat Congress passing the expansion of Medicare with the national drug program. This is where the deficit really started to balloon, because there were no significant revenues associated with this program.

Obama has simply made things worse, but it was the Democrat Congress which kicked the door wide open in the last few years of the Bush presidency. Prior to that, the 1% difference between taxing and spending could be easily managed, because US economic growth was well in excess of 4-5 per cent, just about every year since about 1950. Such strong economic growth shrank the relatively small deficit to unimportance because every year it was being swamped by the wave of new economic growth and consequently additional government revenues.

But, economic growth fell off a cliff in 2007, and its been anaemic ever since. That's why the deficit which once could be easily managed is now a devastating problem.

There are different names for it, but the "cause" of deficit spending is the ability of governments to spend without requiring a plan for raising the money spent.

I vote you in to govern for four years. Any amount you want to spend is fine, as long as you raise enough in taxes to cover it. Heck, you can even borrow, as long as before your term is up, you raise enough money to pay it back - plus interest.

Otherwise, you're stealing from the next government (and stealing from them is really stealing from me - who pays the taxes) - committing them to something they might not want to be committed to, or be elected for.

We fought a revolution partly to stop "taxation without representation" - who's going to explain that to future voters who inherit our debts?

Now I'm afraid its too late - the US was sunk when a majority of voters depended on government handouts. That situation would be impossible if the government had to tax in order to raise its vote-bribing funds. Now, no meaningful change can happen.

Did not the same thing happen here in Canada during the reign of Chairman Trudeau?

Phantom, exactly. A democracy that votes itself continuous increases in largesse will not remain a democracy for long, but will have a continuing increase in the size of government until everyone works for the government.

Essentially, yes. In Canada, it happened sooner, particularly exaggerated by the large rise in interest rates in the early 1980s. So we hit our debt wall much earlier than the US in the early 1990s, and I think we all know what resulted. However, the US is only hitting it now, and unlike Canada there's no clear political will to do anything about it.

And another thought. The size of the US economy means that in general it sets interest rates unlike us who are largely captive of the actions of larger economies. It's always claimed that interest rates are kept low because of the need for economic stimulus. But the real reason is the sheer size of the US national debt. Any significant rise in interest rates, and the US federal debt quickly becomes completely unmanageable.

CGH said: "...unlike Canada there's no clear political will to do anything about it."

I agree. The one thing that continues to amaze me is the CONFIDENCE of these Leftists in the American government. They are so self assured, so convinced that America is always and forever Number One in the world that they don't believe anything bad can happen. Its like they're driving a machine so huge they feel they can beat it with a hammer, drive it off cliffs and steal parts off it, but it will never ever break.

Morons, the lot of them.

Phantom, it's always the same with great empires. The height of confidence is very often just before the crash. The Roman imperial government was never so confident as early in the 5th century just before the Vandals came paddling up to the city out of Africa. Suddenly the party was over.

It's always the same with financial crashes. When they happen, they happen very quickly. Spain had Europe's largest empire in the 16th C. Then very suddenly in a matter of mere hours one day on the Genoa banking exchanges in 1607 (might have been 1609) the entire government financial structure failed in a matter of hours when there were no takers for Spanish bonds at ANY price. Ever since, it was a lightning-struck tree; looked impressive, but it was as dead as Marley's Ghost.

So it will be too with the US. Like all other empires before it, financial problems lie at the heart of its inevitable destruction. And like all the others, it will happen with a very sudden crash. With all of our supposed understanding of economics and finance, we're no more immune to this than the Spanish or Romans were. 2007 still managed to come as a complete surprise, didn't it? Even though there were lots of warning signs that the party was over.

For the Leftists, they have to believe the party will never end. Their entire cause is about tax and spend, government largesse for all. And they are successful from time to time, because voters are perpetually stupid, always willing to be bribed with their own money.

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Recent Comments

  • cgh: Phantom, it's always the same with great empires. The height read more
  • The Phantom: CGH said: "...unlike Canada there's no clear political will to read more
  • cgh: And another thought. The size of the US economy means read more
  • cgh: Essentially, yes. In Canada, it happened sooner, particularly exaggerated by read more
  • Ken (Kulak): Did not the same thing happen here in Canada during read more
  • Johnny: There are different names for it, but the "cause" of read more
  • cgh: What Cap has presented is only part of the picture. read more
  • NeoLuddite: Harper can brag all he wants about his financial prowess, read more
  • Marcopohlo: Hi, Captain C. I put up a comment a while read more
  • shaken: Government began to borrow from private sources in the 70's read more