We've been told for months now that the Justin Trudeau-led Liberals have taken a considerable, almost shocking lead over the Conservatives, a putative fact that has spawned a veritable cottage industry of idle speculation among journalists about whether or not Stephen Harper will resign.
By the numbers,
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and his party have widened their public-opinion lead over the ruling Conservatives in the past few weeks, according to a new poll by Forum Research. Liberals were the preferred party for 39 per cent of poll respondents, compared to 31 per cent for the Conservatives and 19 per cent for the New Democratic Party.
That was in June. About a month later, on July 25,
According to a survey from Forum Research released Thursday, the Liberals have widened their lead over the governing Conservatives to 16 points. Forum has the Grits at 44 per cent support, followed by Stephen Harper's Tories at 28 per cent and Thomas Mulcair's NDP at 18 per cent.
A more recent report put out by EKOS on August 10th showed the Liberals ahead by 13 points:
This poll...(reinforces) the notion that the now profound lead enjoyed by Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party is far from a blip.
Fast-forward to yesterday:
September 30, 2014 - Support for the Liberal Party of Canada increased slightly over the summer and is now tied for support with the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) among likely voters, according to the latest monthly poll from Angus Reid ..
So, just to straighten things out: According to various polls, the Liberals led the Conservatives in June by eight points, and widened their lead to sixteen points (44% to 28%) in July. Their current 33% support, which ties them with the Conservatives among likely voters but puts them ahead by three points among eligible voters, is a three-point increase in support since June.
Hope that clears everything up.
IOW....Librano/pony support is an artifact based on media/librano aspirations.
Has Forum Research gotten anything right, ever? I'd be strongly inclined to take any of their findings with a grain of salt.
Same guys who said the polls indicated that Olivia Chow was the next mayor of the centre of the universe,therefore no one else need apply.
Its trite but --- there's only one poll that matters and it doesn't happen until next fall. Harper has defeated a lot more worthy opponents than the lesser of two Trudeaus.
Just as I said about this a few weeks ago... "new Conservative voters didn't vote Blue because of PMSH's hair".
I still maintain that I've seen nothing from the Liberals that new Conservative voters, who took the better part of a decade to switch to Blue, that would make them switch back to Red. Especially Shiny Pony's hair! In other words, I believe the Libs and NDP are simply trading proverbial poker chips with each other; but, both stacks do not add-up to the chip lead.
Also, not often mentioned in political discussion, are the new House Seats in Conservative friendly areas.
Conservative Majority 2015.
The media and certain pollsters have been running alongside and supporting Justin like anxious parents holding on to their kid's bicycle just before the little angel's first solo run. Justin's first solo run is going to be right at angry Tom Mulcair in a televised debate. Mulcair has had bowel movements with a higher IQ and more political acumen than Justin. Mulcair also knows that almost all of the votes that can go to, or bleed from the NDP, are Liberal votes. Tom must, and likely will, destroy Justin's flimsy credibility which will clear the way for a Conservative win and maintain the NDP's official opposition status. Insha'allah, it will be like watching a slow motion car accident.
We are 1 year away from an election. Polls are pointless this far out. The MediaParty and leftists across the country are just quivering with anticipation that they will finally...finally...be rid of Harper and Canada can pick up where it left off in 2006. The long national nightmare will be over.
I suspect it won't be that simple.
#1. The Liberals haven't been able to win a majority against a unified Conservative Party since 1980.
#2.The median age of a Canadian is now 41.7 years. In 2011 it was 39.9 years. Remember the old saying..."If you're not a socialist when you're 20 you don't have a heart. If you're not a conservative when you're 40, you don't have a head." Those who vote are older and wiser, because that's where Canada's demographics are heading. I don't know anyone over 40 that thinks Justin Trudeau is worth voting for.
#3. Thomas Mulcair is going to go full guns on Trudeau. The NDP got lucky with Jack and caught a wave of discontent. Quebec was having a laugh. Mulcair knows deep down that he's going to lead a party back to 40 seats, but he needs a job and will want to fight for the progressive vote more than the centrist vote that would offer a path to power. He will go after Trudeau in an attempt to keep what he's got.
#4. Trudeau will not campaign well. When the spotlight is on and the tough questions are asked and the debate is televised...well. He's a likeable guy, but the normal apolitical crowd will realize that an election is on they should take a look at what's happening...they'll sense that JT is in over his head and either not bother voting or they'll stick with Harper. The hardcore leftists will stick with the NDP.
#5. All Harper has to do is win a minority. The coalition crisis won't happen again. Once a minority is won, the Liberals and NDP will have empty coffers and the CPC will be flush and ready to go with another election at anytime. If they attempted a coalition Harper would appeal to his buddy David Johnston (GG) to hold another election. The Liberals and the NDP would not be able to do it. Cash is king and the per-vote subsidy dies in 2015.
#6. Justin hasn't been invited to a Bilderberg meeting. You know who was invited? Harper, Martin, Chretien...(okay...just kidding...sort of)
Harper ain't going anywhere for a long time.
That's a rather thought provoking summary.
Mulcair, I think you're right, is more than willing to play nice while the majority is in force but once the writ is done, he's out for blood and knows that his votes and JT's votes are coming from the same people. Trudeau winning = Mulcair being thumped and vicey versy.
I do think that you're a bit off on #4. The debates and the public appearances won't hurt him one bit. His voters are his voters/cult of personality and it won't matter if he shows up to any of the debates like a patient from Awakenings. Part of Harper's appeal in the past decade or so is because he's not Dion/Iggy. JT has his own appeal and it's to the newly indoctrinated, er, graduated millennial-ish morons. Unmarried chicks under 35 are going to break for him like they did for Obama because he's so dreamy.
I don't think Bill C-13 is helping matters, unless you like the idea of no warrant spying. Kind of surprised no one here seems to care.
What happens if Harper compares Justin to Obama? Without the telepromter they are pretty much the same, and we all know the judgement history is having with the progressive Obama.
My opinion of elections:
Redford won in Alberta and Obama won a SECOND term.
I pray a LOT nowadays...
Bog Rock;
Totally agree. I am in a long term Tory riding and I am not hearing anything positive. IMHO the only way the Conservatives take this coming election is if Harper has a platform that can dominate the media message. Since we all know the media will do otherwise I also pray a lot.
The CPC is once again top down org that does not appear to care what the grassroots are saying or thinking. I consider Harper to be the best PM in many decades but I do not know who he listens too.
Two party races in both cases.
The leftist (Trudeau's Liberals are hardly centrist any more) split-vote will do for the Conservatives what the right split did for the Chretien Liberals in the '90s.
Plus there's the possibility of an upsurge of votes for the Bloc, further diluting concerted CPC opposition in a seat-rich province.
Just goes to show the poll takers are just like Liberals, they can't do math.
Polls are nice......but 15 seconds in a leader's debate can destroy everything.
I remember similar polling showing Clinton leading Dole in 1996 by double digits.
In the end, those polls all proved to be giant lies: Slick Willie won with less than 50%. So much for the inevitability of " progressive " landslides.
There are a huge number of conservative voters who are disillusioned with the CPC's handling of so many scandals, real and imagined by the Press.
(small"c" used throughout this post as the Conservatives,who only number about 25% of voters will remain loyal)
Mike Duffy alienated an awful lot of conservatives, mainly due to the fact they knew and trusted him from his years in the PPG reporting,and he was a good Reporter,but...who knew.
The debates and the campaign are going to be very important because that is where Harper can show Trudeau up for the inexperienced, slow-witted amateur he really is,and show it to the conservative voters who are wavering in their support.
That demographic has to be inspired to get out and vote,again, as we did in '11,that's why we beat the hell out of Iggy and Taliban Jack,and that is what we must do again.
Trudeau owns the Tiger Beat demographic,so he can wet his pants during the televised debates and they'll still vote for him, but it's those undecided voters that have to be reached out to,and if we do that, we should win.
To do that, Harper should put Progressive Conservative Peter McKay on the back burner,and let some of the more charismatic MP's take a front seat, if there are any left after losing the 30 MP's that said they weren't running again next year.
It is going to be a tough battle, don't underestimate the the power of the LPC PR campaign that is still only in second gear,wait until next Summer,we'll be up to our necks in Liberal propaganda 24/7 from the Media Party.
It worked for Obama.....
What Gord said. I have a hard time seeing da Shiny Pony dominating Harper in any debate.
When did you Canadians start using the Common Core math curriculum?
"The debates and the public appearances won't hurt him one bit. His voters are his voters/cult of personality and it won't matter if he shows up to any of the debates like a patient from Awakenings. "
With full respect, That is not exactly a watertight argument for a comprehensive Liberal victory; it argues for him earning huge majorities in certain ridings, perhaps many, already well known for off kilter politics.
No matter how you look at it this will be one of the best elections in decades. The fight for quebec alone will be worth the price of admission.
The CPC has 5 seats in PQ. That makes them a non player. Jr has to destroy Mulcair in PQ. I'm not sure he can do that. Mulcair is a street fighter with plenty of political savvy. He's got a lot of skin in the game and is motivated. When the blood bath takes place between Jr and Mulcair, Harper could come up the middle and win a few seats - by default.
Ontario is more troubling. Jr could do well in Toronto and the north. The fly in the ointment will be the economy. By the time the election rolls around voters will have realized that the Wynne government isn't the answer and Harper could start to look good.
Once the real fight begins Jr is going to have to take a few punches. He might not take them well.
Republicans staying home because Romney wasn't conservative enough is what 'worked' for Obama. I'm sure there's a lesson in there somewhere.
Link broken for the globe latest poll.
Rober(t), if you're talking about the post itself there's only one link to the G&M (not to a poll but to an opinion piece from Lawrence Martin) and it's working fine on this end.
All polls are not equal. Forum and Ekos aren't worth a damn. Ipsos-Reid is and always has been the most accurate and nuanced over the years. Let me set the questions, and I can give you a poll result producing any answer you want. Forum and Ekos have always been too much interested in shaping the result they want. I-P, not nearly so much. Political polling for them is really just a sideline. Their main business is industry, and those guys want to know what the public really thinks, not just PR puffery.
Polls seem to be some kind of stroking device, for the fragile egos of the Libtards and their media cohorts.
This is getting to be a repetitive cycle.
For the two years before the only real poll, the Liberals are back, the people love us, we will sweep back into the trough.
The natural ruling party will be back on, praise the lord and pass the champaign.
Cause the POLLs say so.
Then they get to ask us Canadians and the answer is … umm not to their liking.
They first complain about how stupid we all are, then they sulk for two years, shout foul jeers at Harper and all who elected him(Us).
Then REPEAT.
Must be approaching the definition of insanity.
The poll that matters, as it oft said, is the one that puts the buggers in office. How likely is it that those who would vote for Trudeau will even turn up to cast their ballots?
Even assuming the idiots aren't entirely forgetful, it is up to everyone else to remind one's fellow voters of the morally and fiscally corrupt crooks they want to vote for.
Quite right, John. Most of these are push polls to give the media something positive about Shiny Pony to talk about. They can't actually cover the man in any depth because disasters happen every time he opens his mouth.
Given all the difficult and unpleasant stuff the government's had to deal with over the past year, I'm surprised that it's even a dead heat.
Exactly, and the average Dick and Jane, in the few minutes every day that they take to read a paper or watch TV news, see these headlines every so many days and slowly they are brainwashed to believe Trudeau is a winner that they should support.
Diefenbaker was right about what poles were good for and I might add good for especially the leftist hack pollsters pretending they are neutral.
Doesn't matter what the polls, papers or the TV news says. Nobody watches, reads or believes what is printed or parroted anymore.
This battle is waged at the water cooler, the Timmy's and the curling/hockey rink. Whomever dominates those pillars wins. Anyone who doesn't believe this is an idiot.
People get the Government they deserve
Unfortunately, Harper has alienated most of his libertarian former supporters who are just as likely to sit this one out. He has spent the last year playing footsies with the socons who would never vote for anybody else. While ignoring the centre which is where most elections are won or lost.
It's just my opinion mind you, but I would say Baby Turdo doesn't stand a chance at becoming the dumbest PM ever... Yes the Media will campaign hard for the ventriloquists dummy but the mental disorder known as "Turdomania" will fall far short from reality. The palace guard media still have some influence and could possibly sway a few idgits to the Turdo Party, but I just don't see enough Canadians being sold on the lisping breathless blathering Zoolandering nonsense of the Baby Turd. If I'm wrong and Canadians do decide to vote for an imbecile because of his name and the support of the media, then I guess Canadians will get what they asked for and they'll deserve the consequences, and the consequences will be dire. Any country that would vote for a frisbee coaching substitute drama teacher because he has a famous name is not a serious country.
We are 1 year away from an election. Polls are pointless this far out.
Most realistic comment in the discussion. The rest is merely the ongoing mindless JT bashing.
There isn't much middle-of-the-road indifference to JT. People either mindlessly love him because of his father, or mindlessly hate him because of his father.
Polls taken now are for no good reason, they're simply being done to bolster the moral of the Shiny Pony cabal at a time when people really are not engaged in serious decision making as to who they want taking care of business.
Exactly. I'm part of a Probit research panel (wth, I get free stuff) and I get Ekos surveys to fill out every now and again. It's laughable how obviously slanted the questions are towards producing the results their paymasters want ("How much should the Canadian publishing industry seek out and support Canadian authors?")
Polls a year ahead of an election mean nothing. In Toronto, Olivia Chow could do no wrong as a year ago, numerous polls and the media narrative that were shaped with them had Chow being an unstoppable force, that she would wipe the floor with Rob Ford, with some polls putting her over 40%. One year later, she sits in third place, languishes in the low 20s, proving that campaigns DO matter. Trudeau is inexperienced and gaffe-prone -- something that the election campaign will expose, even with a friendly media doing its best to mitigate any damage he does to himself. But it will be in the leaders' debate that he will get destroyed by both Harper and Mulcair and Canadians will finally wake up and reject this vacuous, empty vessel and his attempt to become PM, not based on competence but his be;ief that lineage and star power are job qualifications enough.
The main thing preventing JT from being elected will be the fear of him being elected.
In BC the day of the provincial election, every media outlet was predicting an NDP victory. It didn't happen; when voters went to the polls they couldn't bring themselves to vote for these Luddites. People may not love, or even like, Harper but that won't stop them from voting for him IMHO. Yes, Trudeau is attempting to move the Grits rightward towards the centre, but he remains quite the lefty - sorry "progressive," thus revealing the phoniness of this decidedly left of centre party. That won't be lost on the voter, especially those who think Harper isn't conservative enough.
The media can only shield the shallowness of Trudeau for so long. It's relatively easy one year or more from an election.
Watch his lead shrink and shrink as we get closer to the 2015 election notwithstanding media fantasies and wishful thinking about Harper resigning or calling a snap election.
Many people I know have parked their vote with him, but the slightest explanation of what he (doesn't?) stand for changes their view of the "corrupt" Harper.
Cue to the non-revelations, other than sheer thievery, at the Duffy trial next year which will be wrapped up by the summer 2015, assuming his lawyer doesn't plea bargain.
Trying to convince voters that giving the taxpayer $90,000 is the same as stealing $20,000,000 from them will be fun to watch.
As Mencken once wrote - “Democracy is the pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance.”
We are reaping the sour harvest of our hopelessly dysfunctional public education system.
All in, I'd say that democracy as we know it may well destroy itself within our childrens' lifetime. It's just not sustainable.
Hard to bubble out the word "conservative" when your head is fully immersed in the trough. and where is Harper on gun control? Oh yeah, letting the RCMP perform warrant-less searches. One party-system.