This then leads the human mind into an interesting world. If 3d printers actually deliver on all of their promises, it will be the first time in human history where your physical needs are met at zero or near zero cost. This then behooves the question:
"What will humans do or pursue in life?"
Realize you, me and everybody else works a fair percentage of our lives working up the money to pay for everything. But if "everything" (or most everything) were free, what would the economy be about then? What would humans work and live for?
The answer is other humans.
Specifically, sex and attention.
Comment section is interesting as people have pointed out this already exists in the welfare classes.
Since the concept of "post-scarcity" is Utopian and ultimately a myth, I agree with the Captain's comment that it is likely impossible. War, disease, religion, natural disasters, etc, etc will keep mankind in it's place for countless generations to come.
When it comes to mankind's future, I am most fascinated by the outcome of messing with natural selection as the weak and sick are protected so their genes stay in circulation. Of course, I would have it no other way, but the fact remains that our species got to this point via natural selection so what will be the consequences of our medical meddling?
"post-Scarcity" isn't so actually-impossible as Canadian suggests - but it's a lot harder to get to than just "3D printers".
(Now, it's utopian in the sense that what society would look like if we ever got there would be radically different than what we have now, simply because the pressures and incentives would be radically different.
But not impossible, as such; given that we know from experience that wealth decreases population growth, we may eventually see a far lower total population than we have now, with no "NWO-Conspiracy" style mass murder, just natural population decline to whatever new equilibrium significant-but-not-post-scarce wealth ends up at.
Once we're there, it's easier to imagine "post-scarcity" with cheap nuclear power and massive robotic automation for production of food and goods; if the only work available or desired is either service jobs and art, or a few robot-repairmen, well... that's about "post-scarcity", isn't it?)
People who think that 3D printers means stuff for free have obviously never purchased ink for a printer.
I get my photos developed at Costco despite having a photo printer because it is cheaper and better quality than what I could print myself. The same will be true in a world of 3D printers.
you dont just print out a fresh liver or a gun on paper or plastic sheets.
The concept that 3-D printing equals free stuff derailed the topic before it even began. Weak.
Sigivald, Japan is already moving in that direction. Its birthrate is now less than one, meaning that each generation will be less than half the size of the previous. In fact, all Western industrial nations have birthrates less than two, some of them much less than two, particularly Europe.
This is not a surprising trend. Urban populations have always had insufficient birthrate to replace population, and this trend hasn't changed one iota. What has changed is that about five years ago for the first time in human history a majority of humans lived in cities rather than in rural settings. And the trend to urbanization is accelerating.
I agree with the Captain's overall thesis. We are asymtotically approaching post-scarcity. There is an argument to be made that productivity has now risen to the point where increasingly large portions of the population are simply not required for the workforce.
Yeah well, referring to STAR TREK theory......despite replicators Quark seemed to be heavily engaged in trade....like all Ferengi...
Gold Pressed Latinum ( whatever that is)seemed the preferred tender.....
Having a 3D printer doesn't make objects, like food, free any more than having a 2D printer makes books free.
interesting in that in my lifetime we went from the starving kids in India and China to them exporting food to us . And India about to send a probe to Mars. there should be alot of charities out of work but they keep creating more frivolous ones all the time. Take "right to play" setting up used playgrounds all around the world with pseudo sports celebrities jetsetting almost as much as Dr. Fruitfly
I think the big difference is cheap and almost instantaneous tranportation to anywhere in the world . thanks oil
Speculation in arts, crafts, anything that is has used up personel lifespan will have a higher value. Medical tech with care, scientific research, Sports, dental care will still be required along with its adjacent industry's.
So will news, information technologies. In fact most peoples jobs will be intact including labour like the Oil sands, plus service industry will survive.Includy civil service , Government, laws, police. Only Manufacturing for commodities will really be impacted. Than only for common goods not specialities.
People will still have to fix things.
If its anything like the industrial revolution it will generate even more jobs.People will just have a higher standard of living with more access to goods.
Change is good if it benefits people while being productive. Socialism is change al-right. Of the looting variety.
We can all be Kardashians
3D printers can't print a gun or an Ipod or a steak. They can only print parts that have to be assembled by someone. Food still has to be grown. Everything has to start from something.
Remember TINSTAAFL. There is no such thing as a free lunch.
We can all be senators ....
I have a photo printer Canon 9500 for good prints.
Extra foods Kodak kiosk is cheaper..... but SUCKS.
India's probe to Mars cost an estimated 72 million dollars. Canada gave India 96 million last year. Just saying.
This is like the argument people were having thirty year ago when they thought automation would lead to much high levels of productivity that no one would need to work and we would all be on permanent vacation.
What they didn't seem to get then, and they don't seem to get now is that no one writes a paycheck for people who don't work. Increased productivity leads to less people producing more stuff, so there is no shortage of stuff but there is a shortage of people with money to buy stuff. This is partly why we have the rich getting richer and fewer people doing real jobs. A large middle class will be looked back on as being a quaint mid 20th century thing.
3D Printers are, and always will be, a very expensive way to produce product prototypes and bad art. Without altering a few laws of physics it's impossible for them to produce actual functional assemblies or flexible materials. They will never be used to produce any actual product for which there is a reasonable demand.
Any expert who confidently predicts anything more is likely indulging in a little magical thinking.
PS > Your CAPTCHA is horrible.
Printing 3D guns ? That ship has already sailed
http://newsfeed.time.com/2013/10/10/how-3d-printed-guns-are-shooting-a-hole-through-firearm-regulation/
There won't be any post-scarcity until we have post-socialism once and for all.
I've said it before: All anyone really needs to do in life is to find a productive occupation that he really enjoys, or to find one that he can get good at and derive pride from while finding enjoyment in at least one interesting hobby of some kind.
For "he" read "he or she".
I knew "Star Trek" would come up eventually... :)
There will always have to be prototypes of X device and someone who can repair replicators. Replication will breed stagnation, economically and vocationally. One then must ask about the cultural and spiritual ramifications of overt materialism.
Medical meddling? Like vaccines? Meddle away!
An interesting speculation. But I prefer Freeman Dyson's views on this:
"I believe we understand very little about human nature, about psychology or about economics. I do not take seriously any of the people who claim to predict the future. I believe them even less when they claim to be accurate predictors."
Via http://slashdot.org/story/13/05/13/1410230/interviews-freeman-dyson-answers-your-questions
Tim has got the right idea.
However, even if all the raw material could be provided as 'ink' for your printer for free - what are you going to print, exactly.
You can't just take a picture of your car and then print a car.
You will need all the detailed design information. That digital media will cost you in pretty much the same way as downloading music, except the price tag will have some extra digits.
It will never be free.
give me a call when 3D printers can smelt steel and plant a potato.
@cal2 "Thanks oil"
Actually, the thanks mostly go to Norman Borlaug:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Borlaug
That is an untenable comment. Potential output is determined by the quantity of available inputs. If, somehow the amount of inputs available suddenly became vastly larger, prices might fall - for a while. But people would increase their demand nearly as quickly, as they substituted newly cheaper goods for comparatively higher cost ones. The only way there could be zero cost over the long term, is for growth in the stock of inputs to grow faster than demand. Impossible.
That is an exceptionally sloppy piece of reasoning, Captain Capitalism.
Now it's settled: CC is a luddite not worth taking at all seriously. Post-scarcity = easy lives = good. Want sex? More sex! Want something else? MOAR STUFF. You're free to live out your antiquated poor life CC.
Absolutely bizzare. I guess there's no need to take CC seriously anymore. If I want Luddism I'll attend an anti-GMO rally. More stuff = always good.