A Speech In Cairo

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National Post: Russia is negotiating its biggest weapons deals with Egypt since the Cold War as it seeks to capitalize on U.S. President Barack Obama's decision to cut defence aid to the military-backed government. (h/t Maz2)


20 Comments

It occurs to me that not only can one drive a car from Tehran to Paris, one can also drive from Egypt to Moscow.

One would think the Russians of all people would remember that.

Phantom, the Russians shoot first, ask questions later, if at all!

UNEXPECTEDLY!

If Russia wants to take responsibility for the ME, they can go right ahead. America shouldn't be sending any aid to anybody let alone a dictatorship like Egypt's.

Which is precisely why the Russians are moving in. Best to stop them in Egypt before the MB gets ideas of exporting the same way as Al Qaeda. Ain't no moss growing on Uncle Vlad.

Nature abhors a vacuum.

Too bad Russia is really really bad at the ME, and the rest of their delusions of foreign policy grandeur. They've turned millions of Syrians against them. The fallout from that will turn the problem in the Caucusus up to 11, and they won't win Syria. Turkey is now hostile to Russia to. Russia is going to royally screw this up. Which I will find hilarious.

Exactly, and you get bet they are keeping a close eye on events in Turkey. Syria is not as important to the Russians as Turkey is. Russia, whether Tsars, Tsarinas, First Secretaries, or the current President/autocrat, has been looking for access one way or the other to the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean since Catharine II.

Uh, LAS, are you sure you didn't mean "the Obama administration" when you wrote "Russia"?
As for Turkish-Russian feelings, you might begin with biographies of Ivan the Terrible and
Peter the Great, and then have a go at "Russian Origins of the First World War".

One word about those Russians: Chechnya.

Indeed; it is a critical moment. The Russian influence might keep Egyptian politics semi-sensible.
The main thing is to get US influence OUT of the Middle East. WIth Obama's love for the
Moslem Brotherhood and the Ayatollahs, it is just plain dangerous.

The present US administration is harmful to the US domestically, and poisonous to any country
not strong enough to withstand it.

I do hope that post-Obama the US will revert to its historic norm as a guarantor of international
peace, prosperity, and justice. We shall see.

LAS in a way I agree with you. Leave the ME and its oil to Eurasia. North America should be energy self-sufficient. What we don't need will be easy to sell to China and India. Besides George Soros, Al Gore, Maurice Strong, David Suzuki the entire Rockefeller family might stroke out - was I wrong to say besides?

OTOH, we live in dangerous times and overreliance on a nuclear deterrent is unwise. Russia's gain in influence will surely, as it has in the past, spell bad news for the US. It would be nice though if we disentangled ourselves from ME affairs, but then again there's our ally Israel. So, pretty complicated situation and Obama isn't thinking strategically, if he actually has that ability beyond utopian goals - that mark his greatness of course. ;>)

Egypt, like everything else Obama has touched has turned to rot. Putin is respected and Obama's credibility for supporting the Muslim brotherhood is zero. Kerry is a light weight (lightest)and so the die is cast for a major power shift. Syria was the last line in the sand and Iran now owns the sandbox. There's just no way this will end well and it's moving much too fast for the community activist in chief and his incompetent inner circle of advisers. Putin is playing chess and Obama still hasn't mastered checkers. The game is already over and Obama doesn't even know it. Putin won.

I know what I meant. And I am talking about contemporary politics. Syria puts Turkey and Iran at odds. Russia can't even control Chechnya or its neighbors it is NEVER going to control the ME.

It would be nice though if we disentangled ourselves from ME affairs, but then again there's our ally Israel.

Israel can take of itself with our moral backing.

You seem to have missed the point that lots of jihadis will be fighting the Russians in Russia if they're not kept preoccupied elsewhere. As it is, they're all neatly tied up in Syria fighting other Arabs. And for all the millions of Syrians against them, there are millions more, supporters of the Assad regime, who support them. It's a very simple strategy really; if there's going to be a fire, have it in a far-away place.

cgh;
Or the Russians are desperate as their ME strategy tailspins.

The USA is developing a working relationship with the Iranians and down grading their alliances with Saudi Arabia who are the true financiers of international jihad. Perhaps the Russians go even further and partner up with the Saudis. Their combined oil production would have significant international push. The more balanced approach by the USA allows them to extend the Syrian standoff to encompass the whole ME. Sunni vs Shiite. The Iranians gain some comfort knowing their southern borders are more secure and can then focus on the Russian satellite countries to the north and west which threaten their borders. After all the Russians are infidels as well and they have done dirty deeds in that part of the world for centuries.

This theory might be wishful thinking, especially if the Iranians are playing the USA for fools. Common interests usually create allies, however.

The entire Egyptian officer corp has been trained by the USA military. To some degree the Egyptians and the Saudis are fighting a losing battle of influence over American foreign policy. They know that the USA is still #1 and that cozying up to the Russians is settling for 3rd best as the Chinese would be 2nd. I doubt siding with the Russians will be universally supported within the Egyptian military.

So let's see if I got this right.......... The Yanks give billions of dollars in aid to Egypt and then the Egyptians spend billions of dollars to buy Russian fighters...... Why don't the Americans just put their tongue of a metal pipe in February in Speedy Creek Sask????????

CT>

The Russians are no more infidels than the western world and I would say the Russian Orthodox church retains a lot of influence that the leadership has to consider.

http://3219a2.medialib.glogster.com/media/90/90462d923c36eec7eddd339c6747016bbdb2da38c9dd79f7d284f004053cb2e2/religion-chart.jpg

I agree with your analogy, but after being betrayed by Obama in favor of the Muslim brotherhood I doubt that the US training for officers would matter and certainly no loyalty that would filter through to the ranks.

The Maj> Cute, but they seem to be doing that with every decision Obama makes. Keystone being the dumbest one.

Las> Moral support ? Good one Las, you outdid yourself.

Sorry, CT, but there's just too much delusion in that one.

"The USA is developing a working relationship with the Iranians..."

Well, no. The Bammy goverrnment would like such a thing, but imagining that it's going to change Iran's policy one iota is delusional. But then there's lots of delusions swirling around in Kerry's head.

"Or the Russians are desperate as their ME strategy tailspins."

Well, no. Right now, the Russians are the only ones who seem to know what they're doing. They haven't had a meaningful presence in the ME since the fall of the Wall. But Bammy and Billary's blunders have opened the door wide. And Uncle Vlad is stepping right on through.

You said it yourself in your third paragraph. The Iranians are playing the idiots in the WH for fools (hardly the first time Bammy has been taken for a ride). And lots of people are not fooled, namely the French and Israelis.

As for the US, Peterj has it right. Any enthusiasm the Egyptian military had for the US mostly went down the tubes when Bammy backed Morsi. It's very straight-forward, CT. Interpret current events with the assumption that everything the US does is idiotic and juvenile. The chaos that you see is a direct result of the world's largest military power behaving stupidly.

And why is the US behaving stupidly? Because none of their international activities have anything to do with international crises. The entire US "detente" with Iran serves one purpose only: to get good news in front of the American public to distract from the domestic disaster that is Bammycare.

Nixon did the same thing in '73. "Go out and get a deal with North Vietnam, regardless of what it costs, if it gets the American mind off Watergate." The resulting sellout lasted barely 18 months before the NVA came over the line for the final time.

Obamas bungling is digging a deeper hole every day. With the Gestapo style NSA, child molesting TSA, drug running CIA, and Fast and Furious selling guns to the Mexican cartels how would you expect the State Department to have any success in the ME.

Yanks figure foreign policy is having a lot of "likes" in a Twitter account. After watching the Syrian debacle, Assad being the only middle east leader protecting Christians, and Obummer's CIA funding and training Al Quaida, I really hope Russia takes over Egypt and the rest of the Levant.

cgh;
I might be delusional but tend to side on events where the bottom line rules versus ideology.

Iran: It is possible that Iran is playing the USA but I have to assume that mutually beneficial gains would speak otherwise. Iran ahs been actively subverting both Syria and Iraq with mixed results. Such efforts are not cost free. Again I stress it is not Iran that is formenting international Sunni jihad but Saudi Arabia. Developing a working relationship with the USA allows Iran to get about the business of rebuilding their country. If the past election riots indicated anything to the government there it was that their people were not happy with their economic plight.

USA: Sure the USA could be in Iran for a political feel good exercise but there are reasons for a détente and even a possible alliance. It is the Saudis who flew the planes into the Towers on 9/11 not the Iranians. It is the Saudis who continue to finance international jihad. That effort extends into the mosques in the USA. The Boston bombers were not Shiites. America's efforts in the ME has cost them huge $'s and tied up military forces which could have challenged Russian adventures elsewhere. This commitment has made other allies such as Poland question the value of an American ally. Iran and the USA have mutual interests in the independent 'stan' countries that border both Iran and Russia.

Egypt: Egypt cannot feed itself without some form of assistance. It has few natural assets other than the Nile and the Suez and a population. The population has been a military hammer that future conflict might have utilized. The reality of modern warfare has almost eliminated that advantage. What value does Egypt offer to a potential ally? Wasted money.

Saudi Arabia: As the focal point of radical Islam it has had petro $'s to finance much international discord. Iran has always viewed it has their biggest threat. The Saudi's leveraged their oil into alliances that paid for their defense while continuing to fund international jihad. This power is all under attack today as more oil is coming on stream around the world. The USA is now the largest producer of crude in the world. Not only is this making them financially stronger but it is freeing up the ability of their foreign policy to break away from the Saudi dominance in the ME.

I have to conclude that some kind of co-operation will evolve with the Iranians because it makes political and economic sense. IMHO the military threat of Egypt has been neutralized by weapons advancement and by their likely collapse into irrelevance.

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  • CT: cgh; I might be delusional but tend to side on read more
  • Dave: Obamas bungling is digging a deeper hole every day. With read more
  • cgh: Sorry, CT, but there's just too much delusion in that read more
  • peterj: CT> The Russians are no more infidels than the western read more
  • The Maj: So let's see if I got this right.......... The Yanks read more
  • CT: cgh; Or the Russians are desperate as their ME strategy read more
  • cgh: You seem to have missed the point that lots of read more
  • LAS: I know what I meant. And I am talking about read more
  • peterj: Egypt, like everything else Obama has touched has turned to read more
  • Shamrock: LAS in a way I agree with you. Leave the read more