ORIGINAL: Minutes away from the release of the Philadelphia Fed’s closely watched Business Outlook Survey at 10 AM ET.
Economists expect the index to rise to 5.6 after registering a 4.6 reading last month.
Last month’s figure, which marked a rise out of negative territory, was initially released as an 8.1 reading but was later lowered to 4.6 as part of the Philadelphia Fed’s annual revisions to the data series.
UPDATE:
PHILLY FED UNEXPECTEDLY PLUNGES TO -5.8
Well, probably nothing. (h/t Kevin B)
Recovery? What “recovery”? This is IT baby, the new North American permanent economic austerity thanks to, unpayable debt incurred by government decadence, over taxed/regulated deindustrialization, mismanagement of the currency supply, banking’s investment in toxic derivatives and the foolish sell off of gold reserves in the 90s by central banks. Any increase in the interest rate will kill the economy dead – it’s that touchy.
But it’s probably nothing, I’m just a “paranoid gold bug”.
Did you notice that the dollar doesn’t buy what it once did? If you’re standing still, measured by the dollar, you’re losing.
So, please, what recovery?
It’s deliberate. If you can’t repay your debts, you inflate your way out of them.
The rest is mere distraction.
As the warmers are finding out, you fake the data over time to support your conclusions and you either have to do a big current adjustment to catch up or restate the historical data.
Unexpectedly. There is that word again.
May I suggest that when a person or group is ‘unexpectedly’ wrong with every prediction they make, people should stop looking to said person or group for advice and leadership?
I have to agree with MarkD, the US has chosen to inflate their way out of debt. It’s not how many dollars, yen or shekels you have, it’s what you can purchase with it that determines the value.
And the market yawns.. DJIA still up over 50 pts on the day.
And Occam.. virtually every reason you list has nothing to do with the problems in Europe and North America. Simply put, we failed to educate our children adequately (or put our faith in the union-dominated public school system to do so, epic FAIL), so that they now have no advanced skills, and have to put their lives on the competitive line with Asian workers for semi-skilled work.
Note that there are hundreds of jobs for tradespeople in Alberta or North Dakota that are unfilled. I read last month of a machine shop operator in Illinois who can’t find people who can operate any of his machines. The problem here is a mismatch between the job openings, which require some skill/training, and the labour force, which, having spent most of high school alternately drunk, stoned, or both, has no skills. Result: millions of people on welfare, extended unemployment, SNAP cards, etc.
The only way we can support a generally higher standard of living in North America is to have a generally higher level of productivity. That requires education and skills. All the things Occam lists are impediments, to be sure, but the root cause is ignorance, stupidity, and sloth. And so long as the 47% votes to strip money away from the successful, and to continue borrowing when that money proves to be inadequate to support them, North American society is screwed.
Kevin, while I agree with your statement, what you have stated is just the froth. The Total Public Debt in Canada, both Federal and Provincial which includes Municipal Debt is 4T. Ontario alone is 400B in Debt, Quebec is 1.2 Trillion in debt if you include the amounts they owe for QPP. Taxes have risen 1700% since 1961, Taxes now consume more of the average Canadian Families annual budget than Food, Clothing and Housing combined. The staggering amount of regulation in Canada is killing the taxpayer and business. The laws and rules and regulations in Canada is equal to a stack of pieces of paper that is 10 stories high, over 500,000 pages of paper. All shuffled by union civil servants earning up to 48% more in wages nad benefits than the average sap paying them. We are in a mess, all the result of too much central planning, too much government and a criminal level of taxation. Welcome to the Slave Ship Canada, the Velvet Gulag.
The depressing part is the headline will change in four years time to “8 year recovery watch…” before it gets better.
Hey no worries kiddies . . . Obama is in charge.
Little Hopey here, a little Changey there, a couple of speeches, a few pictures with smiling children and all will be well.
After all, he said he would stop glowball warming and he did. This little economic hiccup is nothing to such a man who possesses brilliant economic management abilities.
Oh and Kevin, the DJIA yawns because of the TRILLIONS in digital paper fiat money being pumped and flooded into the markets by the FED and all other central banks. The markets are only moving because they are being juiced by the Fed. The Great Unravelling is well underway.
“Unexpectedly” is a code word for a crony capitalist
d-bag AKA Obama, calls it crazy while throwing Billions
to his friends.
We have words for that, none of them are polite.
dwright
Obama will lead us to salvation like other great leaders before him.
http://www.infowars.com/other-tyrants-who-have-used-children-as-props/
After 2008, I sat on the sidelines with much of my money, waiting for the market to retest the lows and then buy in. After the 2010 elections I was sure that would happen soon. In 2011 I realized the market would not crash again before the 2012 Presidential election(as Obama would not be reelected), I also decided I couldn’t stick with the reality I know is happening and what the real numbers say about unemployed, jobs, growth etc. I decided to buy into the elusion because enough pro Obama people were on that side, google, facebook, twitter, yahoo, apple, sorors, buffett, wall street, geithner, bernanke on and on…very much like the guy(brown suit w/ red tie) in this “robotic” video clip over at zero hedge.
Confessions of a Former Bear
if the link doesn’t work, try, http://www.zerohedge.com/article/confessions-former-bear
The index has been negative for six of the last twelve months. It’s been negative for only 9 of the last 24 months, but that’s exactly when all the spendulus money ran out. You see, “stimulus” is supposed to “prime the pump” or “jump start” the economy. If it doesn’t, then the spending was just unnecessary debt. The better metaphor is that Obama used a defibrillator twice, and the economy still doesn’t have a sinus rhythm. The patient is close to being declared dead.
The U.S. currently has stimulus at the rate of 85 bil/month, courtesy of Benny. They will print more if they have to.
R.F.B you called it. I just started reading Alex Tocqueville, on the state of France in 1764, Way too funny, he’s writing in the mid 1800s and he is describing Canada today.
When the political bureaucrats cost more than civilization is worth, people stop producing.
If the return on my labour is going to be taken, by force, then I do not produce.
I define civilization as the illusion, that we can trust each other enough to cooperate, that I do not have to devote major amounts of energy to guarding my life and property from destruction.
That I can safely put my energy into building wealth,infrastructure and durable goods, which makes us all richer.
Our governments have been proving that we can not trust them for far too long.
Property rights are ignored, rule of law is NOT,the regulators are arrogant and clueless, govt contracts are worthless.
Its always this way when the nonproductive, come to believe that they control production.
These actors, the bureaucracy, politicians and police are paid to put on a show, a morality play.
Which is why they must be seen to care, be squeaky clean and above suspicion.
And why transgressions from within this group must be overtly & excessively punished.
After all they get to eat for free.
The illusion that we have civilization is valuable, but the current actors have gone off script and believe their own lies, that they have power and are necessary for society to continue.
History indicates that they are mistaken.
Because the cost of government has exceeded the benefit of “civilization”, Canadians have been withdrawing their cooperation for years.
Soon the Finance Minister will be doing his annual speech,…”Productivity in Canada is falling…..”
Revolution is like being a rock stuck in a tire, every rotation you get run over.
“We don’t need no stinkin badges, and you don’t need that rifle. We’ll give you a slingshot you can hunt with”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=nsdZKCh6RsU
We Dont Need No Stinkin Badges!
Cheers
Hans Rupprecht, Commander in Chief
1st Saint Nicolaas Army
Army Group “True North”
I should have invested in metals when it wasn’t so expensive, but now…