Via WUWT: IPCC AR5 draft leaked, contains game-changing admission of enhanced solar forcing
I participated in “expert review” of the Second Order Draft of AR5 (the next IPCC report), Working Group 1 (“The Scientific Basis”), and am now making the full draft available to the public. I believe that the leaking of this draft is entirely legal, that the taxpayer funded report report is properly in the public domain under the Freedom of Information Act, and that making it available to the public is in any case protected by established legal and ethical standards, but web hosting companies are not in the business of making such determinations so interested readers are encouraged to please download copies of the report for further dissemination in case this content is removed as a possible terms-of-service violation. My reasons for leaking the report are explained below. Here are the chapters…
The real IPCC bombshell…
Because we’re fair and balanced: IPCC statement on leak.
h/t TrueNorthist
Wow this is huge ……sigh cause it will get not airtime!!!
Sorry what I meant to say is that this could be huge….sigh but it will get no CBC airtime no bbc airtime no fox airtime and no CNN airtime !!!! Plus all the others !!! Sun news is our only hope !!!!
Damn….now the carbon tax will have to rise to fight global cooling.
So, on the basis of this evidence, the extant carbon tax — namely the, er, HST — should be reduced by 3% at the provincial level in Ontario to promote increased economic activity, and get us back to revenue neutrality, which Dalton McGuinty promised, when he signed off on that sham duplicate CTF Mike Harris pledge, which was, er, zero tax increases and zero deficits, actually.
Oh, wait! I forgot! All of them right-wingers in the Liberal Party are for income tax cuts, instead of consumption tax cuts! Except for, you know, “Le petit gar de Shawinigan”: “We will replace the JST” — with the JST!
I’m not precisely sure, exactly, how any sentient individual can continue to believe in this electoral fraud.
Its the Sun, Son.
Just say no to solar warming denial.
I’ve come to the conclusion that there is an iron curtain between the institutional left and the rest of us. Nothing alters the worldview of those on the other side. Objective reality, facts, numbers, logic, reason, and truth all seem to have no consequence nor bearing on the proper attitudes and faith in the politically correct, green, and statist-reinforcing narratives. Once inside the curtain, the first thing one must worship is a statue of the three monkeys demonstrating proper and mandatory behavior towards anyone and everything inside.
Poll has 95.6% (2700 votes) guessing BELOW the models.
Eastern Paul, of the 3 answers in the poll, none matched what the graph shows.
22 Temperature points on that graph, 10 are below the lowest limit of the models, 10 are above the lowest limit of the models and 2 are right on the line of the lowest limit of the models.
“The IPCC regrets this unauthorized posting which interferes with the process of assessment and review…”
That’s Latin for: This leak means that we will now have to acknowledge this draft, and re-write our final report to downplay its significance.
> Jamie MacMaster…..nope…that’s eco-cultist for…damn…our scam for stealing money has taken a hit. Now we have to really start lying to try to suck in thinking people to fall for our 1 world gubermint scam/UN Agenda 21 scheme. Anybody who thinks or “feels” that more plant food(CO2) and/or warmer temps is a bad thing,well….I hope that Darwin’s Law removes them quickly,before they steal more of our taxpayers bucks.
Where are all the wikileak supporters now?
I’m no statistician but what the chart says to me is no anomalous temperature change.
This climate balderdash has been junk science from day one, so don’t count on Gore, the CBC, Liz May or any other watermelon taking notice – it’s all about money and power and that remains.
With at least $100 billion worldwide blown “combating climate change,” this ranks as the scam of all time and also surpasses the tulip bubble as the greatest example of financial hysteria.
Maybe soon we can talk again about actual pollution.
Actually, I am pleasantly surprised to see the IPCC mention the GCR and its link to cloud formation at all. As the chances of a UN controlled legally binding agreement becomes dimmer climate change research may be more willing to consider natural cycles.
The second graph is more important. The models obviously exaggerate warming, like skeptics claimed. Human caused warming (and there is evidence of that) does not amount to much and total actual warming has been quite mild. In a sane world this would be good news.
Another part of the IPCC paper is relevant given the media’s obsession with extreme weather events. According to Prof.Pielke Jr. the leaked draft shows there is no observed link between warming and extreme weather.
“IPCC AR5 draft shows almost complete reversal from AR4 on trends in drought, hurricanes, floods and is now consistent with scientific literature
IPCC AR5 Draft: “we have high confidence that natural variability dominates any AGW influence in observed/historical TC records”
Draft IPCC Ch2 bottom line on extremes: “generally low confidence that there have been discernable changes over the observed record”
http://climatedepot.com/a/18800/Prof-Pielke-Jr-Analysis-of-UN-IPCC-Draft-report–IPCC-shows-almost-complete-reversal-from-AR4-on-trends-in-drought-hurricanes-floods
The point, Jamie, is to shine a light on a report draft containing self serving an increasingly obvious fraudulent premise. If the result of the light being shone is a final much watered down report then the exercise wasn’t a waste.
Remember what Climate Gate did to Copenhagen. Also, the American people are sick of climate hysteria. Given what they’re facing for tax increases for other government driven programs in the next few months Obama would be putting himself in danger of that Carbon Tax Vibrator Treatment being turned on himself.
Meanwhile, over at CBC land, news reports of unseasonably warm weather outside their Interplanetary Headquarters in downtown Toronto have the taxpayer funded news organization all aglow with “proof” stories flogging the Global Warming theory.
The most disheartening thing about that article (the real IPCC bombshell) is to be found in the comments by “zootcadillac” where he describes the comments made by a friend and business partner when the subj of global warming comes up and he tries to describe the ins-and-outs of the implications of the report: “…but he looked at me as though I was mental as I tried with difficulty to explain that what he believes is not what is happening. All he could keep saying was ‘why would they do this?’ and “but everyone agrees. I read it all the time.’ ”
His friend and business partner is obviously an otherwise intelligent and educated man..
It is to cry..
The most disheartening thing about that article (the real IPCC bombshell) is to be found in the comments by “zootcadillac” where he describes the comments made by a friend and business partner when the subj of global warming comes up and he tries to describe the ins-and-outs of the implications of the report: “…but he looked at me as though I was mental as I tried with difficulty to explain that what he believes is not what is happening. All he could keep saying was ‘why would they do this?’ and “but everyone agrees. I read it all the time.’ ”
His friend and business partner is obviously an otherwise intelligent and educated man..
It is to cry..
Back to the drawing board then ……………
The most disheartening thing about that article (the real IPCC bombshell) is to be found in the comments by “zootcadillac” where he describes the comments made by a friend and business partner when the subj of global warming comes up and he tries to describe the ins-and-outs of the implications of the report: “…but he looked at me as though I was mental as I tried with difficulty to explain that what he believes is not what is happening. All he could keep saying was ‘why would they do this?’ and “but everyone agrees. I read it all the time.’ ”
His friend and business partner is obviously an otherwise intelligent and educated man..
It is to cry..
The most disheartening thing about that article (the real IPCC bombshell) is to be found in the comments by “zootcadillac” where he describes the comments made by a friend and business partner when the subj of global warming comes up and he tries to describe the ins-and-outs of the implications of the report: “…but he looked at me as though I was mental as I tried with difficulty to explain that what he believes is not what is happening. All he could keep saying was ‘why would they do this?’ and “but everyone agrees. I read it all the time.’ ”
His friend and business partner is obviously an otherwise intelligent and educated man..
It is to cry..
Ummmmmm….it is to cry….but only needs to be said once,Virgil….stop using your iphone crap.
Sorry, but I found the graph confusing. While I have no doubt the IPCC is a corrupt, self-serving bunch, a simple projected vs. actual would have had more meaning for me.
John Chittick@ 2:13 AM said: “I’ve come to the conclusion that there is an iron curtain between the institutional left and the rest of us. Nothing alters the worldview of those on the other side.”
Indeed. But this is the product of a social plan that was set in motion long ago and put into action incrementally ever since. So as not to waste bandwidth on the specifics, we are living in the system of “Scientific Socialism” Bertrand Russell (among other elites) spoke of in his revealing lecture series near the end of his life.
He revealed that this global system would be driven by indoctrinating the suggestive masses in dogmatic socialism and politically focused science. Propaganda in art, literature, media and popular culture and would be orchestrated and run by a small elite network of facilitators who would maintain zombie-like control over the indoctrinated masses by creating a god-like faith in science and “science experts” then capturing science to do their bidding.
Eventually as the planning of this global elite of social engineers came so successfully to fruition, they would begin to think of themselves as not only as a separate elite class apart from the hordes of indoctrinated zombies they created, but as a separate species apart from and above them – primarily because of the true realities available to the elite which have been withheld or obliterated in the indoctrinated classes. A true study in diabolical cognitive dissonance.
This is why the zombie troops we see driving these elite-funded/directed agendas which serve to obliterate individual sovereignty are undeterred by reason, fact, morality or human compassion – one can expect no more from a robot. The real malice lies at the top of the scientific socialism pyramid where the levers are pulled to set the Gollum army of indoctrinates on their mission to create compliance with their indoctrination on a global scale.
To skip to the end utopian vision of the chroniclers of this scientific socialism ( Russell, HR Wells, JB Shaw and others), we will have our numbers and IQs reduced to a level that is manageable by our elite “keepers” through modern scientific eugenics integrated into our food, water, medicine and environment. We will lose private property rights and through manipulative economic pressures, end up being herded into large urban population control centers where we will live an austere life of servitude to the collective, with minimal luxuries. Living in small cracker-box apartments, deprived of independent long distance mobility, our movements, communications and associations will be monitored very closely. Our children (if we are chosen to be allowed to reproduce) will become the property of the collective scientific state which will indoctrinate them from an early age to ensure they are not “contaminated” by the “out moded ideas” of, and affection for, their parents. Monogamy will be rare.
The countryside will contain the food monopoly factory farms overseen by the elite and the mansions of the political and economic elite = the country/wilderness is not for the common class.
In this day and era we see Russell’s scientific socialist “zombies” ruthlessly and amorally pushing for every junk science crisis that can be manufactured. It is done to push “sustainability” which is the lynch pin of the scientific socialist elite’s agenda to subjugate the sovereign nation, the individual and consolidate land and resource ownership in a elite-compliant government and its special cronies. sustainability under a “global crisis” guise is a way to herd us into self-imposed and regulated austerity, dependence and disempowerment. Those at the top understands this and their zombies are too compartmentalized and indoctrinated to believe or care about it.
You don’t seriously think that reason, fact, and ethics mean anything to people who are either serving these ends as an indoctrinate or pulling the levers as enablers?
Occam
so could we call were these elites live,THE VATICAN???
this of which you speak is not new, there is just a shift at hand, from religious elitism to secular elitism!!!!
Justthinkin at December 15, 2012 8:26 AM
and
Martin B. at December 15, 2012 12:04 PM
Don’t know where I’d be without you guys…. 😉
This graph will of course not appear in the final published version. Simplest fix to it is to delete the “observed”.
Always read to the bottom for the real howlers:
The IPCC provides governments with a clear view of the current state of knowledge about the science of climate change, its potential impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation, through regular assessments of the most recent information published in scientific, technical and socio-economic literature worldwide. IPCC assessments are policy-relevant, but not policy-prescriptive.
Not policy-prescriptive. Right.
foobert: It’s the Sun, Son.
There was a recent study(NASA?) that apparently found some stray spectra. Other than that the OldSol is a NO-GO on climate change.
As a betting man my larger bet is on the Pacific followed by clearcutting, UHI, and the other CO2 effect–plant growth. And industrial aerosol reduction(outside China).
Next up: Climate Stagnation!
The IPCC is in chaos because their “concept” of the physics of planetary atmospheres is seriously flawed. For example, they cannot possibly use their “School of Thought” to explain Venus surface temperatures, where the surface receives less than 10% of the insolation reaching Earth’s surface.
The small amount of solar energy absorbed by the Venus surface would very easily exit the surface the next night by conduction (diffusion) and radiation. Then, when this small amount of energy is back in the atmosphere there is plenty of carbon dioxide to radiate it away. There is absolutely no possible way by which such energy would be trapped in the surface and somehow add hundreds of degrees. The problem is, if you follow the “First School of Thought” (the IPCC bluff) then you are at a complete loss to explain Venus temperatures, because, if you think like the IPCC it is because you have been subjected to Ignorant Promulgation of Chaotic Consensus.” You need a paradigm shift to the “Second School of Thinking” in my paper.
Please respond to this comment on another thread..
The IPCC is in chaos because their “concept” of the physics of planetary atmospheres is seriously flawed. For example, they cannot possibly use their “School of Thought” to explain Venus surface temperatures, where the surface receives less than 10% of the insolation reaching Earth’s surface.
The small amount of solar energy absorbed by the Venus surface would very easily exit the surface the next night by conduction (diffusion) and radiation. Then, when this small amount of energy is back in the atmosphere there is plenty of carbon dioxide to radiate it away. There is absolutely no possible way by which such energy would be trapped in the surface and somehow add hundreds of degrees. The problem is, if you follow the “First School of Thought” (the IPCC bluff) then you are at a complete loss to explain Venus temperatures, because, if you think like the IPCC it is because you have been subjected to Ignorant Promulgation of Chaotic Consensus.” You need a paradigm shift to the “Second School of Thinking” in my paper.
Please respond to this comment on another thread..