Jim Messina's Pathway Problem

CA-55, NY-29, IL-20 that's a pretty sizeable number of EC votes guaranteed for BamBam. I wonder how much a factor the illegal alien vote is in CA.

mike

I'm predicting a Romney landslide.

#1. Obama isn't really someone you hate. I'd vote against him, but not be all up in arms about it. A quiet voter if you will.

#2. People don't want to be labelled racist for voting against Obama.

#3. Obamamanics from last time are disillusioned and demoralized. They might support Obama with words, but won't make a huge effort to get out the vote.

#4. Obama had a flaky base to begin with. Hippies and students and welfare bums are unreliable voters.

#5. Many people voted Obama last time just so the USA could have a black President. That was done and the box has a check mark beside it, so there's no need to do it again.

#6. Voter ID laws will make Democrat corruption harder and will discourage Democrat "types" from voting. The left really is right about this one. Hahaha!

#7. Mormons will crawl over broken glass to vote for him.

#8. Romney attended the Bilderberg meeting in June. Yeah, I know...tin foil hat stuff right? We'll see.

#9. Unemployment rate is 7.8% No president since FDR has won re-election when unemployment is over 7.4%

#10. Obama endorsed gay marriage. Look what happened to the Liberals when they championed SSM.

Problems? Maybe. Eeeek.

It is still tight. Romney has to deliver in his closing debate. That one is on foreign policy.

No gaffes and no confusion, despite the fact that describes Obama's foreign policy right now. Americans increasingly see president Romney as a viable option. Just don't close it off.

Of obama stumbles then landslide is very possible. There are enough signs of trouble for obama that his win will be by a single state if it happens.

There are a couple of realistic scenarios that produce a tie.....please no, the us doesn't need that.

Mike, not necessarily all that much. Far too many Californians are terminally stupid.

This cycle, I'm seeing about the same number of Romney signs as we did McCain signs in 08. I have not seen an Obama sign yet in a "blue" state. I agree that there seems to be a quiet voter surge.

20 million Conservative Christians didn't vote in the last election because John McCain was too liberal. HA.

Sorry, always makes me laugh.

-

Romney-Ryan +6

350 Electoral Votes.

TSUNAMI

My map: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=KpA

Obama must hold Ohio. If Ohio turns red Romney wins.
If Ohio stays blue then Romney can still win if he get Wisconsin, which is now trending in Romney's direction. (Ryan pick looking brilliant.)

Or Romney can win without WI if NV & IA go red. But it's unlikely both will.

I like Romney's chances.

Oh, my lord. That's Mr. creepy from the "Tattoo my indelible love for Obamacare on my hands" campaign.

http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/archives/021369.html

Bozo's campaign has stopped running events in Florida (29) and North Carolina (15) and Virginia (13). That gives Romney 248, short only 22 EC votes. That is alot of ground for Bozo to protect.
Axelgrease must feel like the kid with his finger in the dyke right now.

The map is optimistic for Barry, I think. Example,
I strongly doubt he's going to get all the electoral votes in NY. Rural and suburban areas of NY are a sea of Republican with city centers going DemocRat. That pattern probably holds across the country.

The map is optimistic for Barry, I think. Example,
I strongly doubt he's going to get all the electoral votes in NY. Rural and suburban areas of NY are a sea of Republican with city centers going DemocRat. That pattern probably holds across the country.

I'm predicting Romney landslide as well. Like Jeff mentioned, I believe there is a silent majority out there of independents and ex-Obama voters that will quietly vote Romney.

I know it's a looooooong shot (Fearless Leader's prediction is more realistic), but if it happens, I will be laughing my butt off:

Romney-Ryan +15
375 Electoral Votes

It's always just been a matter of time until Obama's mask is stripped away.

Phantom, isn't New York a winner-take-all state? NYC will deliver the state's votes to Obama, guaranteed. Lots of liberal idiots there and they'll easily outvote the rural areas.

I think the only states that split their EVs by Congressional district are Nebraska and Maine. I read a recent blog post - forget where but probably Ace - that flagged a poll having Romney in striking distance or with a small lead in one of Maine's districts. Flip that and New Hampshire and there's a quick 5 EV gain. I visited NH recently too (the last NASCAR race in Loudon) and saw not one Obama sign. Lots of Romney signs. I think Romney will take NH easy.

Obama is definitely bleeding support but the gap is not large enough to declare Romney the winner yet. OH & WI are definitely keys. If Romney cracks one of those the game's over (assuming FL, VA and NC are in fact red and Obama's giving up on them).

Never underestimate your opponent, even a klutz like Obamao. His crew will do anything to maintain their corrupt power.

The numbers do not look like a landslide either, far from it. There's too much lefty manlove for Da Wun out there for this to be a lopsided race.

Pedal to the metal from here on out. Romney can't stay off Bammer's throat, he's on the ropes/

It's the economy stupid!

I.M. said :"...isn't New York a winner-take-all state? NYC will deliver the state's votes to Obama, guaranteed. Lots of liberal idiots there and they'll easily outvote the rural areas."

I don't know how they divide up the electoral votes. You may be right.

As to the city dragging the rural areas along, that's usually true. But not if the suburbs go solid Republican. Then the outcome is in doubt.

I think if Camile Paglia can't hold her nose for Obama, there are a lot more who can't either. Division on the Left works for Conservatives.

The America I know will not go quietly toward socialism, this marxist raised community organizer, who despises anybody with money he doesn't approve of, a rich republican,is about to see what business people do with people that say they didn't build their businesses. I realize the cities like NY Chi LA etc are a lot are like Toronto is to Canadas voting patterns, defined as stupidity coagulation, but there are far to many Texas's and like minded states that will send this poser on a one way back to Chicago to shuck and jive with Jay Z and the MSM that so love him for doing nothing.

Obama will win. Civil war to follow.

There's far too many undecided votes for my taste.  I guess we'll see (some) firming after the Foreign Policy debate.

Yet I have this funny feeling that far too many voters are going to make the last-moment choice in the voting booth.  Oughta be a nail-biter, like the 2000 election.  The spousal unit and I will make a big bowl of popcorn that evening.

I think there's a lot of people who say they're undecided so they can get attention or so the neighbors won't burn their house down.

I doubt anyone with a functional brain is actually undecided at this point.

I.M, Phantom:

I don't know anything about New York's demographics and politics, but could Bob Turner's win in NY-09 last year shift some of the other traditional Dem districts into Republican ones?

From a liberal-
The University of Colorado poll has never been wrong.
The poll has accurately predicted every presidential election since it was developed in 1980. It is unique in that it employs factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next president.
CU Political Science Professor Dr. Michael Berry, said there is at least 77 percent chance that Romney will win the popular vote.
Professor Michael Berry-

“Our model indicates that Governor Romney has a 77 percent likelihood of winning the popular vote,” said Berry.
That number is significant, not only in its size, but because of the fact that only four presidents since the nation’s founding have won the presidency without capturing the popular vote, the last being George W. Bush in 2000.

“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” he said.

The only thing the Democrats will agree over now is, did Romney buy/steal this election?

It sounds like there is a lot of wishful thinking going on in here.

It's all going to come down to how many dead or made up voters cast their ballot for Obama.

bartinsky, it may be too late for many, as the Pre-debate Reaction interview video clip showed. Millions do not have a clue as to what is going on and are totally apathetic.

Re: NY-09, I honestly don't know squat about NY's Congressional races. I do know that New York hasn't gone red in a presidential race since Reagan (they even went for that idiot Dukakis in 88) and Obama won it by a whopping 26 points last time. Even if Obama lost half that margin it'll still be a rout.

New York ain't flipping, and I doubt Romney's bothering to waste resources there.

NME at October 18, 2012 9:45 AM

"Obama will win. Civil war to follow."

Probably not....the violence seems isolated with the left.

The last civil war was indeed a war between the states...independant militias were limited to Kansas/Missouri. Don't expect a face off beween the OWS and the guys with the John Deere hats.

On the other hand a Romney landslide could result in interesting times....see the avalance of death threats by lefties on twitter....yeah I know talk is cheap but....

Expect a lot of voter fraud....the donkeys are desperate...voter ID is not widespread...yet...

I've been saying Romney in a landslide for awhile just because I don't believe the polls. Look how hard the pollsters have to go D+ to get O a majority. I just think there is a huge majority of the USA that can see through O's lies and obfuscations, and sees he has no idea what he's going to do for the next 4 years (other than bankcrupt the country). He keeps going on about Mitt Romney not having a plan except for the rich. Barry doesn't have a plan at all. Barry and his minions spent hundreds of millions of dollars demonizing Mitt Romney only to have him revealed to the American people in the debates, as a business man who is NOT the devil incarnate. As Dennis Miller said the other night on O'Reilly, he's a good man. Doesn't the USA deserve a "good man" as president? Watching the debate the other night, my wife and I both said Mitt Romney just seems more believable and honest and has a plan to get America back on track. He was also positive and upbeat where Barry was attack and berate and negative. I know who I'd vote for if given a chance.

sasquatch;
Cue they stole the election from us crys from the Demos. IMO it is still up in the air. The Demos have never had so much money to throw at an election. That combined with their ability to stuff ballot boxes could win the day.

It quite possibly could be irrelvant anyway as the focus on the Presidency is allowing the GOP to take Congressional and Senate seats. Even if Barry did steal the Whitehouse any initatives would have to get by a Republican House.

Looks like Obummer and the Chicago "Gansta" party better hit the hustings in the ghetto states with all the food stamps they can toss away - promise free cars, free kitchens, free crack or a free kick at "whitey" - jus git de vote out sukka!

Yeah I know about population concentrations and electoral votes....but howcome even Mr. Creepy's maps show more red than blue. The donkeys just don't hold the real estate........

I suppose I shouldn't be concerned since it's not my money, but (at the moment, at least) I don't see how Mr. Romney's numbers add up on his tax plan. In order to get people to vote for him he needs to very clearly elucidate the full effects and consequences of his tax reduction scheme. To me, it just doesn't add up.

Having said that, I hope he beats the living s**t out of the smarmy PPOTUS (that's past president in case your wondering).

Sasquatch.
1. The only civil war scenario is if Bambam loses and he selflessly stays in power, to finish his agenda by executive order.
2. The last US civil war was started by Democrat secession.
3. The militias in Kansas (anti-slavery, Jim Laine & the Army of the North) and Missouri (pro-slavery, Border Ruffians) preceded the civil war.

Hate to rain on anyone's parade, but a Romney landslide just isn't possible. Way too many EC votes in the solid/likely Bambam categories (170 right now) and it's just not realistic to think that he won't win a single one of the leaning/toss-up states. Romney might get as many 300 EC votes if all the stars line up, but he won't win the popular vote by as large a margin.

As I noted a few weeks ago, in the swing states, it really boils down to just a few counties. For example, in Florida, the north of the state is for Romney, while the south is for Bambam. The election will be decided by five or six counties in the middle of the state, along I-4 from Tampa Bay to Orlando to Cape Caneveral. Those counties have swung back and forth like the wind. Similar situation in Ohio.

It's amazing how much of the election is a foregone conclusion, and how much the result depends on a few (relative to all voters) swing voters in a few key counties.

mike: You can see the illegal alient impact across the south.

Look across California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas Nevada and Colorado. They are all bluer than the states above. All except California have a blanketing belt of dark red states above.

October 3, 2012, 10:01
Priorities USA Action Pulls Ads From Florida and Wisconsin
~Jeremy W. Peters
The pro-Obama “super PAC” that has spent millions of dollars attacking Mitt Romney in ads is pulling commercials from Florida and Wisconsin, part of what the group says is a realignment of its advertising campaign.

The cancellations by Priorities USA Action, coupled with new purchases of television time in other key swing states, indicate where Democratic strategists think the presidential race may and may not be competitive with a month left to Election Day.

http://tinyurl.com/9n7x96f

Apparently the Dem election strategists no longer think Florida and Wisconsin are "toss ups".

Actually, if you look closely at the map, all the blue states, with the exception of Vermont and New Mexico are either on the Great Lakes or an ocean.

Inescapable conclusion: proximity to large bodies of water makes voters stupid. Applies to Canada as well!

2000 farmers and ranchers were asked/polled who would win the 2012 Presidential election:
Obama 15%
Romney 85%

http://www.agweb.com/article/nearly_2000_farmers_share_voting_intentions/

If you look even closer at the map, you'll see that Alaska, which borders the Arctic Ocean to the north and the Pacific Ocean to the west and south, is a red state.

If you look even closer at the map, you'll see that Alaska, which borders the Arctic Ocean to the north and the Pacific Ocean to the west and south, is a red state.

After what Happened in Alberta . Anything is possible in this mad World.

Genocide Ft. Frenkie - World Gone Mad

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Y5itVCptWE