About Those Polls

http://unskewedpolls.com/

Statistics.....

Even unskewed isn't completely right. That said, they are addressing inequities and assumptions in the poll samples to a more realistic representation of what's going on.

Remember too, that every result has a standard deviation (not LGBT, that's another topic), which is that old "19 times out of 20" you will hear about polls.

For all intents and purposes, this election is going to be decide by Electoral College seats, not by percentage vote, and that's where the Romneyites need to focus on. The popular vote is essentially tied, despite the SCOAMPF

Polls all lie.They are designed to result in what ever results the payer wants. If the Zero wins again,two results.There will be another Yank revolution,and I hope Harper(or more likely the Canuck population)will turn back every person heading north who isn't carrying a shotgun.

So, just for fun, let's say that the, you know, real situation lies exactly one-half of the way between the Real Clear Politics poll average and the Unskewed Polls average (average of averages, ha!).

That would make it (as of today) : 7.8 - 3.7 = 4.1 advantage Romney.

Sort of puts a different perspective on the latest MSM disinformation gambit, which uses "conservative" commentators criticisms of Romney's "cautious" campaign to try to force him to do something stupid, doesn't it?

I say again: Polls don't vote - people do. And they lie to pollsters, too, the scamps...

It will be 53 R / 44 O / 3 others.

In a sane world with an unbiased media and intelligent voters it would be 75 / 22 / 3. Even Reagan Carter (& Anderson) was only 52 / 43 / 6.

Justthinkin at September 24, 2012 2:04 PM

"There will be another Yank revolution,and I hope Harper(or more likely the Canuck population)will turn back every person heading north who isn't carrying a shotgun."

Indeed...about both the revolution and the shotgun.....

Ok but, Kate, I expect a full mea culpa on election day when Obama wins another term. In reality you'll then argue that the polls made the ballot box results turn out just as the poll aggregate had predicted. You're hilarious, keep this ish flowing.

So instead of offering critique's of the GOP's awful choice of candidate Kate is pre-emptively pursuing a 'blame the conspiracy' approach? How pathetic.

Justhinkin's references to "revolution" and "shotguns" are out of line. WE, THE PEOPLE OF AMERICA, THE PATRIOTS REJECT, DENY, REFUSE, AND SHALL OPPOSE ANY CALLS FOR "REVOLUTION" OR "SHOTGUNS".

The entire political landscape of this country shall soon change--BY US, THROUGH PEACEFUL RECOURSE TO THE BALLOT BOX! Surely Obama would love to have a "pretext" or "fraudulent excuse" to put tanks in the streets, machine gun nests on our corners, and declare himself "CUSTODIAN OF THE CONSTITUTION"--delaying elections until the "wild, and illegal enemies of the USA are 'contained'" IT SHALL NOT STAND. IT WILL TO COME PASS. Anyone who encourages such a possibility is no friend of liberty. BALLOTS, NOT BULLETS.

Justhinkin's references to "revolution" and "shotguns" are out of line. WE, THE PEOPLE OF AMERICA, THE PATRIOTS REJECT, DENY, REFUSE, AND SHALL OPPOSE ANY CALLS FOR "REVOLUTION" OR "SHOTGUNS".

The entire political landscape of this country shall soon change--BY US, THROUGH PEACEFUL RECOURSE TO THE BALLOT BOX! Surely Obama would love to have a "pretext" or "fraudulent excuse" to put tanks in the streets, machine gun nests on our corners, and declare himself "CUSTODIAN OF THE CONSTITUTION"--delaying elections until the "wild, and illegal enemies of the USA are 'contained'" IT SHALL NOT STAND. IT WILL TO COME PASS. Anyone who encourages such a possibility is no friend of liberty. BALLOTS, NOT BULLETS.

Hummmmmm....Baby Glock...riighhhttt.Aren't you late for your food stamps and welfare money for your net?
And you obliviously have no understanding of how freedom is won and maintained.
Now after you get your food stamps,I hear some Ocuidiots are missing another village moron.

Justthinkin >

I agree with both you and "Baby Glock".
So called “Americans” running north, and there will be plenty, will be the illegal immigrants jumping another border for handouts, along with legal welfare dregs that have been cut off, and other Liberals abandoning the sinking ship.

American patriots will stand and defend what’s theirs; in addition to having scruples and an understanding of the consequences of not standing up to tyranny they actually have real ownership in America.

We in Canada are going to get the worst of the US demographics coming our way, and our own Liberal loons will applaud and welcome them like Mao’s red brigades at a mass public hanging. This will happen even as their own communities become violent crime ridden cesspits.

I can't help but think that pollsters in the U.S. probably have a track record that is at least as bad as what we have recently seen in Canada.

None of our pollsters predicted a CPC majority in the most recent federal election; they put the Wild Rose party significantly ahead of the Alberta Tories and most recently told us that the PQ was headed for a majority in Quebec.

I think it's entirely legitimate to ask just what is going wrong with modern polling today. Are these companies staffed with the same folks who tell us that inflation is "tame"?

Knight99/Baby Glock....my reference to Americans heading north with a shotgun was meant to mean to keep out the cowards/leftards without a gun.I fully realize(being married to a Yank)that true freedom loving Americans will stand up and fight.We Canucks just have to be careful that we do not allow the useful leftard/commie/socialist/muzzie types to escape justice over our border.

Polls? You aren't going to get a poll result on how many are in a state of sexual infatuation with Obama, both male and female; but it is many.
It would make a good question though - "Do you desire sex with the President?"

The Yanks deserve four more years of Obama. I don't think Canadians do; but we don't vote.

Everyone be real quiet and calm.

Don't wake them up.

Let the Democrats sleep.

They keep dreaming its November 7 and they have won a great victory.

PS: I do disagree with "Baby Glock" in that there will be a peaceful American resolution to get back on track economically and politically.

It's impossible for that to happen any longer, and the tipping point for a peaceful resolution was surpassed some time ago. The only questions really are:

How much longer does the can get kicked down the road until it implodes? 6 months or 10 years?

How fast will it implode? An overnight crash, or slow evaporation over a few years, as is apparently happening.

How far into decline, Argentina circa 90's with super rich high security hiding from slums & gangs or a complete Zimbabwe Apocalypse?

Regardless there will be much bloodshed and misery for those that never thought it possible, and for sure the US government will lash out with bigger foreign war efforts to kick the can a little further along.

it's not about the polls and whether or not they're being skewed heavily to hide a Republican lead.

It's about conditioning the American people to believe the race actually IS close enough that they won't be surprised when the 'record level of advance votes' are counted...giving 'bama and the 'democrats' the win.

It worked in Iran, it worked in Russia and it's going to work in the US.

Provided, of course, that there even IS an election to steal...I'm still not sure that there won't be some manufactured 'crisis' that will be used for an executive order putting the eletion on hold...backed by the dem majority in the Senate and the Supreme Court..and bypassing the Republican controlled House entirely.

I sincerely hope I'm wrong about that, but I'm deeply afraid that I'm not.

Why would the LibLeftards abandon the homeland. It will be the time of Nirvana, THE ONE will have returned in triumph, for his grand vision to come to fruition.....or some such nonsense.

We'll take the Repubs, and send back the Demons, they should stay and bear the cost of their poor choice.

Here I sit home from work today, very under the weather, previewing the chattering class thru several hours of Daytime CNN and MessNBC. Surprising, CNN has somewhat moved away from their hard hard left attempt at challenging MessNBC for over-the-top Marxism class warfare. They're still water carriers, but, their recent fight with the WH seems to have woke them up a bit (save for Chet, or Don Lemon, another host with kneepads).

MessNBC, otoh, is just demented. Rational thought? When? It is all anti-Romeny, all the time. Its obvious when there is nothing to be proud about your candidate, turn the focus on the challenger, constantly, and never let off the pedal, then repeat as necessary.

Oh, and Joe Scarborough calls himself a Republican....still......in what universe? As Republican as David Frum.

Well, except it isn't tied.

Obama's up by 2 in the latest Gallop poll and up by close to 4 in the RCP poll of polls.

More importantly, Obama's also leading in every swing state except Missouri - yes even North Carolina. This gives Romney no clear path to 270 electoral college votes. Today Mitt would lose the electoral college in a rout - 347 to 191. The Republicans don't just have to draw an inside straight to win, they needs an inside royal flush at this point.

With only 45 days to go, it would require a unprecedented turnaround for Romney to eke out a victory. And the headwinds against him pulling off the miraculous are pretty damned stiff. Romney has the highest unfavorability rating of any US Presidential candidate since Carter in 1980. Folks have formed an opinion, and they just don't like the guy. That sort of negative personal perception problem can't be overcome in a scant month-and-a-half (ask Stephane Dion or Mike Ignatieff). Also, the Republicans have largely squandered their fundraising and advertising advantage, and the Democrats have a much better ground game than the Republicans in each of the battleground states.

It's a tough time to be a Republican. The best thing that can be said about their oval office prospects is Samuel Beckett's line, "Any fool can turn a blind eye but who knows what the ostrich sees in the sand."

I see a parallel with this US election and the one we had back in 2008.
The difference is that the GOP has yet to release their version of the "not a leader" ads.
Obama has some unscripted moments that are equivalent to Dion's "that's not fair!!!"
The "you didn't build that" and "just a bump in the road" have the potential to move not only the voters, but some of the media as well.
These polls are being produced not to reflect, but to influence.
Many more of the unscripted moments and the push polls won't work.
Obama's pride will be his downfall.

You'll know it's bad when the Hollywood set (read the baldwin's, whoopie, etc....pick one) threaten to leave and move to Canada if Zero looses.

The announcement should happen shortly.

The whole election is a circus act, a petty little dog and pony show.

It doesn’t matter which of the Coke/ Pepsi weenies gets elected in Nov, it a simple matter of whether you like white or brown chocolate, cause it's all run by the same people making you believe you have a choice.

Wake up America; you was robbed of your government along with your nations true spirit a long time ago.

If Obama wins, how about an exchange of migrants? For every hard-working conservative from south of the border who can't stand living under God-King Obama we send over an NDP voter who detests Stephen Harper. The US will be screwed anyways so a few hundred thousand more socialist 'takers' won't change the outcome appreciably, and we could always use more 'makers' up here. If Obama loses, we should bar the gates to prevent the Hollywood leftist elite from entering.

Seriously though, does anyone believe polls anymore? The lame-stream media would sooner slit their throats than admit that Romney is more popular and I have yet to see one poll that is only of likely voters with Dem-Repub-Indy representation that is proportionate to the actual party affiliation. Most are polling disproportionately more Democrats.

many of these "poll" takers ain't figured out yet that a lot of people answer "just anything", so's to get the fools off the phone, because the question asked can't be answered to reflect the persons true answer. Me, I just tell them I don't do polls, that's on a polite day, other days I just tell them to F off!

Like the miracle of the loaves and the fishes?
Obama fits 18,000 into an arena that seats 5,000, according to our moral superiors in the media.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/09/23/Media-Put-18000-in-5000-Seat-Arena-for-Obama

I've followed http://electoral-vote.com/ since 2004 and shocked those at the school meeting I had that night by saying that Bush would be reelected. They all believed the horse race numbers, and didn't know to pay attention to the electoral college. After that night, they thought I was psychic, not delusional.

In 2008, that site was accurate as well although it wasn't as obvious - at this point in 2008, it was much more of a horse race.

This year, it looks like the horse race is imaginary again; it isn't close when you take electoral college into account.

Why wouldn't the left report the real situation?

1. Horse races sell ad space and newspapers.

2. There's always a chance all those lazy Democrats will stay home if they think it is a cakewalk.

3. Obama's "overcoming of adversity and winning the people over at the last moment" will made a great narrative.

ARRRRGH!!!!

1) The polls are telephone based questionnaires, the weakest type of evidence for anything at all that its possible to get this side of a Ouija board. You can't predict -anything- with that data the way they collected it.

2) The polls are not being used to -measure- public opinion, they are being used as part of a propaganda effort to -shape- public opinion. Specifically, to induce, bamboozle or otherwise influence people to vote for Obama.

3) It doesn't matter who wins the Presidency, as both houses are going to be majority Republican no matter what else happens. If Barry wins he'll be the lamest freakin' lame duck in history.

4) Barry ain't going to win, no matter how many illegals and dead people vote for him. He's done like dinner and has been since 2010.

Then there was this work of genius here:

LAS said: "So instead of offering critique's of the GOP's awful choice of candidate Kate is pre-emptively pursuing a 'blame the conspiracy' approach?"

Dear LAS, its pointless to critique the Republican's choice of candidate. They chose. They chose Romney. So the Americans now get to vote for either Romney or Obama. One will win, one will lose. Pick a side.

As Canadians all we can do is yell from the sidelines anyway, but any thinking person who's been paying attention knows that:

a) the news media is 110% in the tank for Obama like never before in history and those polls are crooked as a dog's hind leg,

b) as President Obama is an order of magnitude worse than Jimmy Carter and,

c) Romney couldn't possibly do worse than Obama if all he did was play golf all day every day. Because if he did that at least he wouldn't be actively sabotaging the US economy and its foreign relations.

Even accepting your premise that Romney is a bad candidate, its utterly irrelevant. Binary decision tree, Romney or Obama. Chose.

And besides all of the above, why would Kate want to belittle the guy on her side? Are you retarded?

Meerschaum that only proves the uselessness of these polls. There is no way in Hell that Obama is taking North Carolina.

When you cut through all the partisan media BS, this election is a 50-50 split. Obama has a 47% core vote of parasites on the public teat, Romney has the producers and traditional America. IF the welfare state stays home and the producers get out to vote Romney could win the 5 essential swing states - but only if he gets the vote out.

It's a matter of voter turnout and motivation - who has the most to lose by not turning out to vot in a tight elelction - the parasites or the producers?

Binary decision tree, Romney or Obama. Chose.

I choose Gary Johnson. You and other TEAM PLAYERS choose to be the cancer of politics.

You can keep telling me about this 'conspiracy' but it just sounds desperate. The evidence is in: Romney is not liked and can't campaign.

Criticism of Romney is only irrelevant if you refuse to think, so it's no surprise you're dead set against it.

When you cut through the B.S. Romney is up 8.

And let's remember the dems and lefties have already threatened to move to Canada if O loses.
Then , again, so have Conservatives.
Not many though. Most will stand and fight and have the guns and ammo on hand and in stock.

The Phantom, 9:56p.m. and LAS, 11:07p.m. --

You folks are way to smart to be so hard on each other. Nevertheless, I'd have to say that a vote for Gary Johnson is pretty much a vote for Obama, which surely we all can agree is something truly repugnant. Besides which, if Mitt messes up, which I happened to think unlikely, there'll be another chance in four years -- which by the way, seems less certain if Obama is re-elected.

And speaking of poll anecdotes, I had to laugh the other day about Jim Messina's comments about the tracking polls showing a tie (you know Jim Messina, Obama's campaign manager, who posed for that, er, grotesque picture with "Obama" "Care" printed on the back of his hands): "We're still ahead in the battleground states..."

Of course, very next morning, Candy Crowley's got the story on CNN's new polling data: "Obama's still ahead in the battleground states..." Which then gets picked up by Bourque over a crisp picture of Obama disembarking Air Force One and saluting to the two air force guards at the bottom of the stairway. Which then goes on to re-enforce the misleading impression fostered among Canadians about Obama's chances...

what phantom said...

David Southam said: "...I'd have to say that a vote for Gary Johnson is pretty much a vote for Obama..."

Indeed. However some people here (LAS, pill) seem to be really bad at math, therefore vigorous application of the iron-studded cluebat appears to be warranted.

Long term, the Republican Party will either reform or end up standing on the Left side of the Tea Party, which seems destined to become the place that low tax/small government people will rally to. The DemocRats I think are pretty much toast after this election cycle, like the Liberal Party in Canada. If they don't die altogether they'll spend twenty years in the wilderness.

Either way, in -this- election refusing to chose is a vote for Obama, and voting for some obscure third party guy I've never heard of is as well.

The time for vigorous criticism of Romney and his policies begins on November 10th, the day -after- he wins and saves America from the Saboteur. Then we can go to town on the guy, hold him to some spending cut promises.

You fail at basic number theory. A vote for Johnson is a VOTE FOR JOHNSON. It does not increase Obama's vote total at all neither does sitting it out.

A vote for Obamney is a vote for Robama. Get my drift?

hold him to some spending cut promises.

Can't hold him to what doesn't exist.

Polls that report the inclinations of DEMONcRATs are irrelevant.....

Then there is another factor....most will not tell the truth to polsters...it's face to face and sub-consciously distrust the alleged anonimity. As Wisconsin showed...they say one thing to the polster and then in the privacy of the voting booth go t'other way.

The whole election is a circus act, a petty little dog and pony show.

.It doesn’t matter which of the Coke/ Pepsi weenies gets elected in Nov, it a simple matter of whether you like white or brown chocolate, cause it's all run by the same people making you believe you have a choice.

Wake up America; you was robbed of your government along with your nations true spirit a long time ago.'
Posted by: Knight 99 at September 24, 2012 5:31 PM

Exactly, Knight 99. Add to the dismal situation the fact that unca Mo's voting machines from Spain can be rigged. Proven by both the 'O' (demo) twits and the 'MR' (repub) goofs.