Y2Kyoto: The Short Answer

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Just as accuracy improves with increased distance from the target;

The obvious response to these claims is that if we cannot predict weather features such as the Arctic oscillation or an El Niño under current climate, how can anyone credibly claim we have predictive skill decades into the future from both natural and human caused climate forcings? The short answer is that they cannot.


49 Comments

Cap & trade 'corporate welfare'

Giving away free carbon credits to industry makes no sense for the U.S. -- or for us

By LORRIE GOLDSTEIN, ASSOCIATE EDITOR

Prime Minister Stephen Harper says Canada must mirror the Barack Obama administration in the U.S. on climate change.

Unfortunately, that doesn't explain what Canada is going to do if the Americans do something stupid.

Problem is, we know the U.S. is about to do something stupid -- which is to set up a cap-and-trade market in carbon dioxide emissions in which 85% of the carbon credits will be given away to industry for free.

How do we know this is stupid? Well, as David Wessel observed in The Wall Street Journal, we know it from Obama and his budget director, Peter Orszag.

Last March, Obama told U.S. business leaders: "If you're giving away carbon permits for free, then basically you're not really pricing the thing and it doesn't work -- or people can game the system in so many ways that it's not creating the incentive structures that we're looking for."

meanwhile, in Jimby Prentice's office:


Prentice leads way in contact with lobbyists

With the environment near the top of the public agenda this year, Prentice's door swung open the widest for lobbyists, with 136 face-to-face or telephone contacts reported in the year, the data show.

Ottawa's lobbying industry reported communicating with members of the Harper cabinet more than 1,500 times last year, posting more contacts with Environment Minister Jim Prentice than any other minister.

Of these contacts, the majority -- 81 of 136 -- were with lobbyists representing oil, gas or other energy companies, including EnCana, Suncor, Shell Canada and ConocoPhillips. Prentice met to discuss energy issues with Imperial Oil on 14 occasions, more than any other company or organization...."

Jimby's carbon tax looks like a nice juicy cash injection for all the right people, at taxpayer expense. Exactly what a bureaucrat does.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Prentice+leads+contact+with+lobbyists/2425569/story.html

http://www.torontosun.com/comment/columnists/lorrie_goldstein/2010/01/10/12408766-sun.html

"...how can anyone credibly claim..."

Argument from authority, of course. Its one of the many downsides of credential-ism, this one affects all of society instead of just the individual.

Credential-ism does not protect us, the "consumers" of the credential protection assurance, from a credentialed group which chooses to -lie-. Which individuals and groups will inevitably do, for sufficient incentive.

Not being able to get a research grant or get published in Climatology (or a lot of other things) would seem to be sufficient to get most professional scientists to go along with the Big Lie.

Its what happens when lying becomes a morally acceptable strategy in public life. Thank you Lefties.

Upshot, we all might want to re-examine the whole basis of the credential-fever currently raging in Western society. Dog clippers have to be credentialed? Might be a bit excessive, know what I mean?

Although your style is often abrasive, confrontational and off-putting, hardboiled, on this one I concur wholeheartedly. I'm thoroughly dismayed by the complete buy-in to the warmist agenda by our government. The question is, what's the best way to approach (from a small-c conservative point of view) opposing the hell out of this?

One cannot predict earthquakes but one can predict techtonic plate movement.

I can't tell for certain if it will snow two days from now but i can six months from now (july).

The flaw in the AGW lobby's argument isn't timeline, it's the degree of accuracy (pardon the pun)and the certainty that man is causing it.

hardboiled, not to short-circuit your argument or anything, but do any of the other four parties have less objectionable AGW policy proposals on offer?

Because if not, I'll take the least bad I can get and then beat on the party responsible to get real. I have a lot less beating to do on the CPC than any of the rest of them.

It worked for the Lefties for 50 years, I don't see why it shouldn't work for me undoing the damage they caused.

no the other parties do not have less objectionable policies.

But as Goldstein eloquently states:

PRICE HIKES FOR US

Will all this hike energy prices for consumers? Absolutely. Big time.

Given current technologies, the only way governments can lower emissions quickly and dramatically is by forcing people to use less energy by making them pay more for it.

If our leaders honestly believe man-made global warming from burning fossil fuels poses an imminent, existential threat to humanity, then what they are really advocating is huge price increases in the cost of energy, meaning the cost of everything.

That's it. That's their plan.

Anything else they say is a lie."

Lemmings follow each other off of a cliff. It's as simple as that. The CPC promised to be different. They aren't. They are Libranos.

Just as accuracy improves with increased distance from the target;

I get your sarcasm, but did you ever try to shoot a gopher at less than 10 feet?

"The CPC promised to be different. They aren't. They are Libranos."

Uh huh. So your suggestion to solve this problem is...

Relabeling CO2 a toxin and making legislation to lower CO2 levels is predicated on the now falsified hypothesis that CO2 forces temperatures steadily upward all year round and that man is to blame for rising CO2 levels.

There should be no seasonal breaks to the overall upward trend in temperature observed if the hypothesis had been correct.

The Whistleblower leaks from East Anglia's CRU has shown us that the whole science involved is fraudulent.

There is no AGW, there is no energy shortage, there is no need for rationing or punitive taxation to force rationing upon us all.

Climate is a non-linear, chaotic system. The variables are infinite. It cannot be modelled by computer today and probably never will be modelled with any degree of accuracy. Computer-generated climate models are the foundation of the human-caused global warming hyptohesis. If model output is total B.S. therefore the idea built upon this output is likewise total B.S.

However, for now, there is money and lots of it to be made peddling the AGW idea so lots of people who know better are willing to go along with it even though they know it is B.S. They are whores.

hardboiled, is the CPC stuffing your tax dollars in to brown paper bags for their own consumption? There is a difference.

Al Gore's Weather (AGW): Death Watch UK.
...-

"The death toll from weather-related incidents has also risen to 26,".

"Met Office warns drivers: expect icy roads for days"

"But around 2,500 Scouts and leaders braved the sub-zero temperatures at a winter camp.

They had to hammer tent pegs into the frozen ground at Gilwell Park, near Chingford, east London."

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article6982763.ece

What is obvious right now, is that there is a land bridge forming from Greenland to the U.K. that will eventually save the polar bear from extinction.

"The CPC promised to be different. They aren't. They are Libranos."~hardboiled
"So your suggestion to solve this problem is..."
~The Phantom

Scrap them like the Progressive Conservatives were scrapped in 1993 and start over until some conservatives who can learn the lesson gain power.

The recession isn't going to get better and political change happens faster under such conditions.

I sent e-mails to Harper, Prentice, and my own MP and I only got a response from my own MP that showed my e-mail hadn't been read at all and the response demonstrated that they thought they were corresponding with an AGW supporter to whom they said:

"The Copenhagen Accord appears to be a significant improvement over Kyoto, in that it moves from a focus on targets imposed globally to actions and targets that are determined by Canadians and reflect particular national circumstances. It also includes, for the first time, all of the world’s major greenhouse gas emitters, specifically countries such as China and India which were previously excluded.

An international agreement that includes the world's major emitters complements our government's own efforts to balance the concerns of the economy with the environment. An agreement will allow us to harmonize our strategies with other North American countries and work together to develop realistic targets and goals that will not put the Canadian economy at an unfair disadvantage. Compatibility with other countries, particularly our largest trading partner, the United States, is essential to maintaining Canada’s competitiveness. Now that the U.S. is signatory to an international treaty, the way forward can include alignment on a range of principles, policies, regulations and standards that will not unduly affect one country’s economy more than another’s."

To hell with them, they ARE the Libranos.

"hardboiled, is the CPC stuffing your tax dollars in to brown paper bags for their own consumption? There is a difference."
~qwerty1

The difference is only in style and the ripoff is going to be orders of magnitude greater.
All these political A-holes become influence peddlers as a career when they quit politics whether they get their grease up front or in back is of little relevance.

The only silver lining is that the CPC isn't going to do anything major until the U.S.A. does it first and the U.S.A. may not do it at all because of their recession.

"Uh huh. So your suggestion to solve this problem is..."


Uh, uh - you first bud. You're the one who brought up the "they are worse than us arguement".

Give us your take on what should be done. I don't buy the "least of the worst" argument and I have told my MP that. He happens to be the PM. No reply and frankly I don't ever expect one, they are so far up the Ivory Tower. So, what is your soloution rather than the "inshallah" arguement?

"The media, policymakers and others should recognize this evidence of our incomplete understanding of the climate system. We will continue to have surprises such as we have seen this winter."

I have seen 67 winters. Some as cold as this one. However, no one was ever surprised, but extreme weather, it was what is was. The reason people are surprised at this one is only because our political conn men have convinced many of us that cold weather was a thing of the past.

You should never believe a politician or a government scientists. Always be prepared to take care of yourself. You are the only one you can truly count on.

Real-politic raises it's ugly head...
Politics is the art of the possible....
The reality is that the warmists grip of the media and their overwhelming success with that sci-fi movie "An Inconvenient Truth" has as much or more influence as the "Protocols of the Elders of Zion" of the 19th-20th century.
Much like Sarah Palin has been permanently label an know-nothing idiot.
Lenin and Goebels were correct about "the big lie".
"The Big Lie" is a big pothole that all politicians must maneuver around....jumping it is not an option.

"The Big Lie" is a big pothole that all politicians must maneuver around....jumping it is not an option.
~sasquatch

Jumping in is what they have done.
What they could have done, and didn't or haven't, is used their government bully pulpit to shine the spotlight on the pothole, East Anglia CRU, and tell the world they aren't jumping in too because it's a pothole, dammit.

jt, is your name hardboiled? You part of the "Harper Sucks-I'm Quitting" crowd?

He comes on here all the time with this crap, I have yet to see a single constructive thing out of the guy. He's a liberal troll, is what he is.

The solution is, you go VISIT your MP, in person, you look the guy/girl in the eye and you let them know what's up. You join the riding association, you make waves, you kick over the traces if you don't like what they're doing. You go to the meetings. You -really- want some action, help set up the chairs for the meetings. God forbid, you raise money.

Its called participatory democracy. You PARTICIPATE.

And ultimately if the party is in your opinion corrupt, as the Progressive Conservative party absolutely was and the Liberal party absolutely is, you start a new party and you go win elections with it. Harper's lads are looking behind them at Wild Rose, you may be sure. That's all good.

Furthermore, hardboiled's argument is crap and he knows it. What the hell do you think the Minister of the Environment is going to say on TV? He comes out and says "Global warming is a fraud, we're repealing Kyoto." What do you think is going to happen next? Spring election, Liberal majority. Obviously!

You want to know why the CPC is still in minority? WHINERS, is why. Complaining, moaning little whiners who take their marbles and go home when they don't get exactly what they want, when they want it, with a f-ing bow wrapped around it.

Conservatives need to grow some brains for a change, or shut up and accept that fact that the Liberals are your chosen masters by default. Pay the 60% of your income to the God of government, and give thanks they don't take it all.

New Hampshire license plates say "live free or die" jt. They don't say "live free or whine". Go visit your MP this week at let him know Jim Prentice better not be serious about the carbon thing, better be a tax cut in the near future, and he can COUNT ON YOU if he's doing the right thing. Strap on a pair, for f- sakes.

And before you whine, Harper does have office hours. Find out what they are and make a g0ddamn appointment.

/. rant

Well, Phantom old buddy, I already am! They don't "hear you".

By the way sport we vote PC, that IS the reason I'm pissed at them. They are Liberals in Grey Suits, just like the old PC's were.

If anyone is a troll here it is you whispering in our ears ""shhhhh, don't rock the boat."

letter to the PM:

The following link should be read:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/11/24/the_fix_is_in_99280.html

You have asked Canadians what you should do regarding Copenhagen.

Boycott it. State your reasons that you and your government do not support "rigged" science in the formulation of any sort of climate mitigation policy.

Terminate any CO2 sequestration programs, cap and trade initiatives and corporate subsidies to high cost, inneficient, alternative energy sources that do not meet a proper cost/benefit competitive end point.

Terminate tax favoured status of several charities who have promoted this rigged science as a source of their income. Terminate funding for anyone associated with this fraud or whom has ever publicly published or promoted the concept of AGW based on any of the data used in the promotion of this fraud. Find new, "cleaner" minds to pursue the real science of the planet.

Promote clean water and air policies, conservation of energy, low cost, low environmental impact power sources and get on with governing this country in the best interests of all Canadians.

State publicly that your government will not promote any policy that adversely effects our economy based on the rigged science of AGW.

Thank you, my vote rests on that.

Phantom, post yours so we can compare notes.

Oooh no jt, you don't get off that easy.

Do you imagine people go into politics to fight for what you want? No! They fight for what -they- want, and screw you. Its up to you to make sure they do the job you want by carrot and by stick.

Decisions are made by the people who show up. This decision got made this way by Jim Prentice and his staff of guys who SHOWED UP. Arguably it is the wrong decision, I certainly don't like it either. But, and this is the part where the rubber meets the road my friend, not enough people like myself are making their intentions known. We are not showing up.

Jim Prentice (and every other MP for that matter) wants to be a Big Cheese, make big decisions, tell people what to do. That's why he worked like a dog, like a friggin' husky, to get where he is today. You think he's going to take a chance on blowing the sweet deal he's got because jt or The Phantom sends him a cranky letter? No f-ing way my friend.

What does it take to get Jim Prentice's attention? The end of his sweet deal, obviously. Or conversely, help in keeping the deal sweet and making it sweeter. Bit of both, perhaps?

How does one do that? Participate! You don't like faux liberals in gray suits, kick them the hell out at the next convention. Raise money for Jim Prentice's replacement, for f- sakes. Or raise money for Wild Rose for all of me. I'm not married to the CPC, I just want a smaller government and a f-ing tax cut, how it comes to pass is not important.

I'm not telling you to not rock the boat jt. Rock the hell out of it, I certainly do. But man, GET IN THE DAMN BOAT. Show up. We need more guys.

Like I said jt, I don't send letters these days. I go visit in person. But nice letter.

Thank you.

By the way - I am a paid up member of the WAP and was a member of the earlier Wild Rose Party. I'm active, but unfortunately my work world does not coincide with visiting MP's in person.I work long periods out of town and by the time I could even meet face to face, I'd probably get arrested for being "contemptuous of MP". And judging my own temperment, I don't recommend doing that in my case.

I also showed up in person at a town hall meeting in SW Calgary hosted by Mr Kenny a few years back. The mood of the crowd induced the PC's to flood the hall with undercover police who filmed every one of our happy faces. Just in case, eh? Didn't do anything to alter their position at the time. So, guess what - a bunch of Conservatives sat out the last election. Too bad, eh?

To poorly quote Churchill: Capitalism is the worst form of government...except when compared to everything else.

Same goes for the CPC. The Canadian federal government under the Conservatives SUCKS...but it sucks less than it would under ANY OTHER CURRENT ALTERNATIVE.

If you don't support the CPC, then we will be ruled by the Liberals. Period, full stop. All your whining will NEVER convince me that the Liberals will be better than the CPC.

Get a frickin' clue. We all know how the game is played...and, unfortunately, it IS a game.

"All your whining will NEVER convince me that the Liberals will be better than the CPC."
~Eeyore

The Liberals weren't better than the Mulroney PCs either.
Conservatives still got rid of the PCs because they wanted something better.
Either the CPC gets better or I want something better.
If it has to get worse before it gets better then at least I'll have some hope that it will get better.

Support of the AGW scam by the CPC has given me no hope that things will get better.

I don't give a damn if the CPC mouths ineffectual platitudes about the PRC's or Iran's human rights record or supports an unwinnable War of Attrition in Afghanistan.
I want some tangible conservatism that will, if not better my way of life, have no ill effect on my way of life.

If the CPC doesn't do better on this Climategate issue they are no better than the Liberals.

You could take every bad thing that the Liberals have done to Canada and it wouldn't amount to a hill of beans compared to the ill effect that going along with the AGW hoax will have on this whole country and the intrusive destructive effect on individual lives.

From where I stand, as an Albertan, the alternative could be a lot better than worrying about which Canadian federal party could replace the CPC.
If the Liberals get back in it would be just the goad Albertans need to secede.

Jt & hardboiled your 'all or nothing' schtick is getting more than a little wearisome. Life is made up of compromises. Life is made up of not always getting your own way. As you mature you not only come to accept it you actually realize the benefit of not always getting your own way. Harper won't do exactly what you want today. Boo Hoo. You are not the only Canadian to whom Harper must listen. You have your ideas of right and wrong others have a different set of values. When your set of values becomes the only set of values we will all live in the dictatorship of jt or hardboiled. News flash! No one else here wants to live in your little dictatorship. I much prefer the wise leadership and compromise ability of one PM Harper.

Joe, you sound like Chretien with this compromising stuff, a Liberal. So, what's a few millions?

Tell me, home of the 62 Percenters, how much compromising were they willing to do? None. Why should we?

"You have your ideas of right and wrong others have a different set of values."

Yes, how true and you use the same words to describe me as the left does Harper "dictator". Your values are "Canadian values", too?

Tell me, your kids play hockey, you use a bus pass? the Cons have got you pegged to a "T". My vote to the highest bidder - you're "bought and paid for", sport with other people's money. But then that's "compromising", eh?

There's an excellent quote pertinent to this matter available here:

"And for bonus points, nowadays some of those people will run around in blog comments and stamp their little feet and insist that because the party they want to vote for didn't do some particular thing they want or wanted, not only are they not going to vote, but that you are not a valid supporter of that party if you disagree with the little-foot stamper. People who think like that are being irresponsible citizens; childish at best, evil at worst."

nice to see others who aren't blind partisans in here.

that sound from Vitruvius is the same sound Special Ed Stelmach is making as support is crumbling. First they'll dismiss. Then they'll insult. Then they threaten. Then they plead.

For all the bullshit that is AGW - your 'conservative' government is preparing the largest single tax hike in the history of the nation, transforming the tax code from a transactional form, to that of life itself. Taxing the essence of carbon based life: energy. Food, power, existence itself/.

And this lie of AGW (or at the least, an unexplored and incomplete postulate), is being supported by your CPC, because their interests align with the AGW needs.

For power. And for a massive re-alignment of the tax base.

But then again, I am only an angry little foot-stamper.

And Vit - negotiation downwards is for the professional apologists. Welcome to Mediocrity, Canada. Population: you.

I didn't say you are an angry foot-stomper, Hardboiled, though I suppose that if you wish to claim that title for yourself, then it would hardly be reasonable for me to attempt to dissuade you, as that would, it seems to me, be gratuitously rude. Yet it remains the case that you continue to, perhaps deliberately, misunderstand or misrepresent my position, Hardboiled. As I have explained before, here in general and to you, I generally tend to agree with you (at least in those cases where you're not making things up), for as you no doubt recall, as I have also explained here before, and speaking as a founding member of the Libertarian Party of Alberta (in 1974), I am not actually a conservative in the first place, I have never said I was, and ergo you can hardly label me as a conservative partisan. I just vote for them because libertarians form terrible governments, I'm not an anarchist, and the conservatives are, then, least bad. The problem is, your behaving socio-pathologically in public is not helping us at all.

you all have to remember(U to hardboiled) that the CPC represents not only those who voted for them, but every canadian alive, we have to not only convince the goverment that AGW is a fraud, but we need to also convince the rest of the population, to force our POV on the majority is the way kommunists operate. As the Phantom stated, get out and do some lifting!!

We have to convince the government that AGW is a fraud? I didn't have much trouble getting the WAP on side. The Cons are another matter. Big Business and Big Government have now highjacked the whole concept.

There are plenty who have notified them on other blogs, it isn't working. Mr Prentice barely condescends to answer his constituents or any one else on the subject, because to him "the science IS settled". It's just a bureaucratic exercise now to implement "the Plan".

Witness the $600 million towards CO2 sequestration in ALberta - it's a done deal! You will pay for it too, not just Albertans. The Wild Rose Alliance is officially opposed, I support them, financially and with my vote. What the hell are you clowns doing to turn the government in your own balliwick? Voting in two-term McGuinty? Good move. How's that Hudak guy coming along? Heard any policy from his so-called conservative party? Is he even anti AGW or does his party toe the line for AL & Suzuki?

Instead of slagging us as "foot-stampers" or "liberals", whiners, dictators what exactly do you petulant posters plan on doing, yourselves? We hear Phantom goes and pays personal visits, are any of you supporting any movement to un-convince government from their tax the crap out of us Big Government know's what's best for us all mantra?

Save the leactures for somone who cares. I am vocal, even with my own professional association who like all quasi-government to government oriented groups chant the mantra of AGW.

We've seen how trying to work inside the Party works in Alberta with the provincial CPC. They aren't listening and that is why Wildrose is where they are. Formed your own small government party where you are?........crickets. Ya, thought

Well, here's some ammo:


http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/global_warming.html

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html

http://wattsupwiththat.com/?s=keith+o+rattie

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/01/30/co2-temperatures-and-ice-ages/

That's just for starters, you SOB's. Get cracking!

Actually, this is the wrong logical paradigm.

It has several problems, first of all, the assumption that there is no skill in short-term versions of long-range forecasting. This is not actually the case among skilled long range forecasters, the problem being, the established national weather services do not recognize nor employ the best people in the field. But you would need to be fully immersed in the weather field in some way to know about that.

However, there is another logical disconnect here. The theory of global warming could independently be correct even if we had no skill beyond five days in terms of conventional meteorology. The reason for that is found in the different paradigms in play. A specific long-range forecast for a given season requires an accurate assessment of where highly variable systems will reside through a given time frame.

A climate forecast requires an understanding of what large-scale processes might be affecting that variable pattern, because one could assume that the variations themselves would cancel out, or that some new combination of them would provide a new baseline.

This is where both the AGW proponents and the majority of skeptics are equally wrong. The AGW proponents are wrong because they have over-estimated the impact of greenhouse gas on secular atmospheric warming, mistaking cause and effect in past cases to a significant extent. Some of the skeptics, meanwhile, have placed their trust in equally unlikely outcomes like the maintenance of the quiet sun for a Maunder-like period, or just plain contrarian assumptions that mimic the AGW lobby by confusing weather with climate ("it is cold this year, therefore there can be no global warming.")

As both sides fight to the death with these faulty paradigms, real science awaits a real postulation, which should be something like this, relax, things are not likely to change catastrophically in either direction. There is no reason to expect an imminent ice age or even a "little ice age" -- nor is there much chance of a huge meltdown -- in fact, we may have flopped the nuts by adding half a degree to a gradually cooling climate. We may be even more intelligent than we thought, our descendants may be proud to carry our gene pool forward. OMG, I've become a Muslim. Sorry that should read OMA.

Agreed, Peter, yet since it remains that case that it would generally be a better thing if it were a few degrees warmer and the atmospheric concentration of CO2 were a few times higher, what, then, exactly, are we fighting for? The only reasonably logical response that I can come up with to that question is that a significant portion of our fellow species have become corrupted by the snake-oil salesman, which leads us to the conclusion that what we are fighting is that self-same fraud.

I really want what ever it is that jt is using. It would be wonderful to treat every cause as being the only cause, then rushing madly off in all directions forming political parties as we go. Lets see, I need a political party that doesn't drink the AGW kool aid. A political party to cut the deficit. A political party that cuts the bureaucracy, a political party to allow smoking pot on the jobsite, and most of all a political party to run to when all the other political parties fail to meet my expectations.

not only convince the goverment that AGW is a fraud, but we need to also convince the rest of "the population, to force our POV on the majority is the way kommunists operate. As the Phantom stated, get out and do some lifting!!"
~GYM
Good idea.

We don't need to convince the government that AGW is a fraud.
Every Alberta MP, and that includes the Prime Minister, knows it is a fraud.

Ezra Levant, the author of "Fight Kyoto", gave up his Canadian Alliance party nomination for the riding of Calgary Southwest, so that new party leader, Stephen Harper, could run there in a 2002 by-election.

I agree, GYM and Phantom, that we need to get their attention by influencing public opinion.

I find inspiration in the American Tea Party Protest/Demonstrations.
I was inspired directly by being part of the "Rally for Canada" demonstrations before the GG prorogued Parliament, last year, that were similar to the spontaneous Tea Party Demonstrations which were to come later.

I realize that jobs and other obligations are the main reason conservatives rarely demonstrate in any numbers.
It would seem easier to appear, as Phantom suggests, at an individual's convenience at your local MP's office.
Good idea.
(act locally, think about getting direct feedback)

But the other side of the debate, the "Potholer's" to borrow a phrase from sasquatch, have had mass demonstrations for a long while and are ahead in the recorded put-it-on-youtube-(or liveleak) scale side of public opinion.

We need more videos like the Ezra/CHRC interviews and we need to show masses of people are in support.
Then maybe, just maybe, some CPC backbenchers can start to say a few things about Climategate or the fact that the IPCC claims CO2 levels are rising while temperatures are declining.

The people who doubt AGW have no rallying point.
Ideas?

Vit: I generally tend to agree with you (at least in those cases where your not re-triangulating to support your initial postulate).

But 'least bad' is illogical at best, and provides wonderful ground cover for every bullshit lie that governments (eg: politicians) propagate for their own benefit.

Harper lied about Income Trust taxation. It was a no brainer: it could not continue. But he actively chose to lie to the Canadian public.

I think it's more in the public interest - especially in an ostensibly public forum such as this - that sociopaths and power hungry ghouls who aspire to rule other men are spoken freely and honestly about. Genuine opinion and earnest thought advance the discourse.

As I said before, apologizing for political party fraud, lies, and grease by using a logically flawed argument (hey, Teb Bundy wasn't really as bad as Jeffrey Dahmer, y'know), simply accepts the evil and flaws of the human condition - and negotiates it into the political establishment and governance.

We need to say - lies on AGW and the Carbon Tax to CPC supporters is not right. We need to have an open, complete dialogue on the topic. If the science is settled, great: it'll come out. Especially on something so structural to the lives of the people of this nation as a carbon tax shift.

We cannot say: "Hey bub, at least they're not as bad as those guys."

Otherwise one abdicates the meaning of citizenship for some form of bitter nihilism. Forget that.

Peter O'Donnell:

I cannot agree with some of your statements. Namely, and this is the big one, that you assume there is skill (OK, I'm assuming, but I assume you mean reasonable skill) in long-range forecasting. That it could be done, if only the right people were involved.

Here's the problem: climate forecasts are only done with climate models. And any nonlinear system (the atmosphere, for example, both in meteorological terms and in climatological terms) cannot be skilfully modeled in computer land. Here's why:

  1. In order to do so, you must know the state of the atmosphere (or climate, or ...) at every point in it at any given time.
  2. Until we know, for sure, all the equations involved, we cannot model with certainty. (Witness all the parameterizations and fudge factors used in current, high-level meteorological models.)
  3. Until computers can successfully calculate integrals and differentials (i.e. without using finite differences and summations, thereby introducing truncation errors), we cannot model with certainty.

In short, putting all our eggs in the basket of climate models is folly because climate models suck.

Yes and no, Hardboiled. The situation is
not as abstractly binary as you model it.

it took a decade to get this snake oil into the system, it'll take as long to get out.

With all of the cash and political capital that's already been deployed, it's gonna be a war.

More from AGW, you-know-who’s-weather.

Sleep tight, Al, you fraudulent bsfksld.
…-

“Freeze in Florida Tonight Will Be Worst Since 1989

Several blasts of arctic air have gripped the eastern two-thirds of the country since the beginning of the new year. In the South, the extreme cold has been threatening crops, and temperatures tonight could be the most damaging for some.

While temperatures will rebound throughout the upcoming week, a late-week rain storm could cause even more damage to Southern crops.

Tonight Will Be Most Damaging in Florida

So far, citrus-growers in Florida have gotten by with only light damage following several nights of sub-freezing temperatures over the past week. Tonight will likely prove more destructive as temperatures drop to the lowest levels in over 20 years.

(Excerpt) Read more at accuweather.com …

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2425479/posts

Phantom is right on. The only language the parties understand is their election funding and manpower. I have told the CPC that they will get no contrubutions from me while they buy into AGW. I have renewed my party membership because they at least respond to members. PMSH is my member of Parliament and I have volunteered to work - the better to get at his ear. We all need to get busy and work at the grass roots level or else NOTHING will change.

In the 1970s the NDP in Sask. brought in some very draconian rules that seriously disrupted our business. Several of us got involved with the Tories, raised some campaign funds and within two years we had a change in government.

Don`t whine DO SOMETHING.

GerryM

'Climate is a non-linear, chaotic system. The variables are infinite.'

Yup, even the Goreacle has distanced himself from CO2, one of the weakest hypothetical 'Greenhouse' causal variables.

hardboiled, you talk tough but talk is cheap. I'm suggesting getting up in your MPs face in person and making some impression on the guy, like with time and money on the table.

What you've got is "its gonna be a war". Except this country has a long history of scandals a lot worse than this one, but no civil war.

This scandal (and it -so- is a scandal) will be settled in the usual way. There will be horse trading, there will be guys in the back room, there will be pious pronouncements before the cameras, blah blah blah.

But the solution that is reached will depend on how many guys with pitchforks are poking the back room boys in the ass.

The Liberals are equal parts True Believers and conniving scum, they are out there every day, all day, shuckin' and jivin' the press, their MP, money people, etc. They work the system.

I suggest to you that you get off your dead ass and work the system the other way, and I'm a "blind partisan"? I think not.

You fight with the army you have, buddy. You do not get to fight with the army you want. The CPC is what we got, now, today. Get your pitchfork out and start jabbing butts, or get the hell out of the way before you get run over.

As for the present federal government, they show few signs of believing in global warming, and many signs of thinking that we have a big problem, namely that narcissistic fool Obama. They seem to be humoring him as best they can; the present protectionist mindset in the US is bad enough without getting Obama's feathers (or hairdo) ruffled.

No it isn't.
Posted by: Vitruvius at January 10, 2010 9:06 PM

metaphorically is what I meant, not the physical act of war.

And hey Phantom: be quiet and pay the carbon tax. It's coming, you can't stop it. It's a done deal.

And hey pal - if you think political parties, any political party - isn't conniving scum who game the system and exist to get their lips wrapped around your wallet....well, you are hopelessly naive.

I don't think you really believe that though.

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