Y2Kyoto: On The Coldseat

So the Met predicted a flattening of the average temperature from 1999-2009?

Lying pr!ck.

Syncro

...but he assures the NEXT decade will be warmer. Ya, like I said... NEXT decade!

Hey Marha hook up the John Deere we's got us some manure to spread here.

Don't you wish that someone would put Suzuki in that seat? The mute girl was a nice touch too.

Odd... no-one heard of the predicted leveling off of temperatures. All we heard was we had 1 year, 2 years, 50 days or 30 days, etc. to get this right or we were all going to drown.

Just another scammer!

Spin, the new way of lying.

(Around 4 min mark)

Spinster says "It's not just about a long range forecast, which actually doesn't figure in that(the bonus) because it's (long range forecast) still a developmental science."

(I thought the science was settled?)

Distinguished interviewer says "Since you can't get the winter or the summer right in your forecast, why should we give any credence to your forecast for what the temperature will be in 2050 or 2020 which is what you do?"

Spinster says "Because it (long range forecast) is a very different or much more highly developed area of science... it's the bit in the middle which is the trickiest"

Heh.

Stuck in the middle? The interview could have gone this way.

Gotta love how the Brit's can be insulting and still sound so distinguished though.

LOL....

Shades of the 'Two Ronnies' !
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-adalHNeBDE

That's just like my own predictive ability: tomorrow will be cold and on July 30th, 2075 the temperature will be exactly 103.5972 F in Anchorage. It's just those pesky predictions for next summer that I'm not too good at. So, where's my bonus?

Actually one of the Ronnies could have done a much better job of explaining why that twit got a 'performance' bonus to begin with and he would have been at least funny doing it.

The Hurst guy looked and acted like a fool. If it looks like a duck and quacks and waddles.....

I see that Britain has the same problem that we have here in Canada.

Overpaid civil servants who are as useless as teats on a bull moose.

Example: Even though it is over 26 million in deficit, has the highest rate of infection of any hospital in Ontario, the CEO of our local hospital makes more money than the Prime Minister of this country.

Factor in the perks, bonus and pension entitlements(these dipsh1ts certainly feel that they are "entitled to their entitlements")it is not a stretch to say that us "working plebs" are getting ripped off, the shaft, screwed......well.....you get the idea.

What we require in this country is a complete reworking of the system of compensation for civil servants, with the Prime Minister's salary being the top one, and everyone else settling somewhere under that. Anything else is just a ripoff/theft/con perpetuated against the working people of this country.

Kingstonlad @ 5:45
That's a very good idea. If the prime minister or premier of prov is running all the hospitals and more is paid X amount, then someone running one should not get paid more!
IMHO. Rgraham4444

AGW = Al Gore's Weather.

"*"I don't like it at all," said the Ohio retiree. "I dreamt about snow last night.""

**Britain: Dickens' Miss Havisham.
...-

"*Florida's Big Chill stuns sea turtles; iguanas drop from trees, manatees seeky balmy waters

TAMARA LUSH Associated Press Writer

APOLLO BEACH, Fla. (AP) — Frigid temperatures across Florida drove hundreds of manatees to balmy waters outside a power plant, shocked endangered sea turtles off the coast and even sent cold-blooded iguanas tumbling from trees.

Across the Sunshine State, a cold wave pushing temperatures into the 40s or below left exotic fauna shivering.

More than 200 manatees lolled in 70 degree waters in a canal outside a Tampa Bay area power plant Thursday as crowds gawked on a viewing platform. Along with the sea cows, giant eagle rays and spinner sharks sought refuge in the warm waters.

"This is a spa for them," said Wendy Anastasiou, an environmental specialist for the Tampa Electric Company."
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/wire/sns-ap-us-cold-florida-critters,0,3742884.story
...-

Great Expectations**:

"Snow covers Britain from head to toe (Amazing photo)"

"Snow covers Britain from head to toe

As if dusted with icing sugar, this satellite image of Britain shows the full extent of the snow coverage affecting the country."

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2423702/posts

Hustling government money is a career.

The venue doesn't matter much, one must simply learn to determine the political objectives of those controlling the budget and hop onto the appropriate bandwagon.

The bigger the government, the more flock to the gold rush.

The welfare of the citizenry is entirely beside the point.

I can see why Hirst makes more money than the Prime Minister: He's a far better bull-shi**er.

Oh, goody! A lepolt flom Canadian fugitive Mao Stlong in corrapsing Red China.

Mao say, Hi, Bob. Whele's Iffy, youl readel? (Bob Rae, is really Canada's "Liberal leader" and is Mao's nephew.)

You rike Al Gore's Weather, aka AGW? Schadenfleude wants to know.
...-

"Freezing Beijing rations gas supply

Large parts of central China are facing power cuts and energy rationing as a result of extreme winter weather that has disrupted coal supplies and prompted a spike in energy demand.

The State Grid said on Thursday the central Chinese provinces of Hunan, Hubei, Henan, Jiangxi and Sichuan, as well as the municipality of Chongqing, were facing significant pressure on power supply systems as a result.

Beijing, which had 20cm of snow at the weekend, has started rationing natural gas to shopping malls and supermarkets because of a spike in demand, state media reported.

Central China has been left vulnerable to power cuts because of reduced coal supplies from Shanxi province. The area is one of China’s main coal producers but the government is implementing a plan there to close and merge all small coal mines in a bid to improve safety.

Hu Zhaoguang, an official at State Grid, said on Thursday that the power cuts would be “a short-term, temporary issue”. The electricity shortages were the result of problems transporting coal in the snow, lower hydropower output during the winter and reduced coal supplies.

Officials said Hubei province, which was already rationing power to some industrial users before the cold snap, appeared to be the worst affected, and the Hubei electric power company had imposed cuts on “several thousand” steel mills and other heavy industry companies, according to China Daily.

Amid reports that aluminium smelters in Hunan and Henan provinces had faced power disruptions, concerns about energy shortages have driven up aluminium prices in China by more than 4 per cent over the last few days. However, Chalco, the country’s largest aluminium producer, said it had suffered no problems."
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2423699/posts

Its not a whole lot different in Canada. I read somewhere that the record of accuracy on the fifth day of a five day forecast was wrong more often than right.

My observation is that the weather service has trouble predicting yesterday's weather.

Hirst reacts to climate e-mails;)

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6951029.ece

"The Met Office has embarked on an urgent exercise to bolster the reputation of climate-change science after the furore over stolen e-mails.

More than 1,700 scientists have agreed to sign a statement defending the “professional integrity” of global warming research. They were responding to a round-robin request from the Met Office, which has spent four days collecting signatures."

"...John Hirst, the Met Office chief executive, and Julia Slingo, its chief scientist, wrote to 70 colleagues on Sunday asking them to sign “to defend our profession against this unprecedented attack to discredit us and the science of climate change”. They asked them to forward the petition to colleagues to generate support “for a simple statement that we . . . have the utmost confidence in the science base that underpins the evidence for global warming”."

On that website, another prominent moonbat is in a video.......Bianca Jagger.....I don't know why she wants to protect nature so vehemently, nature has NOT been kind to her! And to think Mick was schtupping that at one time......

3 day accuracy maybe.
Butterfly effect.
It's all about initial conditions.
When they can predict the shape of
a snowflake with more than 'six sided',
I'll trust their forecast.

Almost felt sorry for him.

Then I recalled that he earns more in a year than I'm likely to earn in the next 10, and I do a much better job than he does, and I'm not an arrogant little prick, and he is, and I stopped almost feeling sorry for him.

The reality is that modelling systems for weather have so many variables in them that beyond about 48-72 hrs, it's completely anyone's guess as to what the weather will be. They take a best guess, but with so many variables, it's literally *impossible* to accurately predict weather beyond a certain threshhold.

As a meteorologist, first off I'm ashamed to have to admit that guy's a(n international) colleague. In the loosest of terms, however.

The most startling part for me was when he pretty much lied about the super-extended long-range forecasts. He lied. I'm paraphrasing here, but he said that the science is much more developed and that forecasts at that range are much more reliable than those for the upcoming season. What a load of bullplop.

I've said it here a few times and I'll keep saying it: as long as you use computers to calculate (actually, more accurately, approximate) the extensively brutal mathematics involved in forecasting, and further, don't actually fully know all the equations needed and therefore use parameterizations in said forecasts, the model forecasts will, after a given time into the future, be useless.

@a different bob: you are correct. The forecasts after day-5 (sometimes 7, in really stable weather patterns) are a coin flip; that is, you'd be better off (that is, less wrong) most of the time forecasting the averages. Which is, incidentally, what a lot of them do, to an increasing degree as you go out in the future.

My points: computer model forecasts suck for a bunch of reasons, and because they're done on computers, they will always suck. As well, there are meteorologists in Canada, more than a few in fact, who are actual skeptics when it comes to AGW.

Legendary forecaster Gus Wickstrom of Tompkins, Saskatchewan

Gus, a man of Swedish descent who lived in this prairie province all of his life, was a weather forecaster. He predicted weather conditions six months in advance, yet his technology required no fancy equipment, no high-tech razzle-dazzle. All Gus needed was a barn and a farmhand or two standing by. . .because he predicted the weather by looking at a pig spleen.

Every 6 months or so, Gus slaughtered a pig, and in the frugal way of farm families, he found a way to use everything but the squeal, as they say. Gus closely scrutinized the spleen, using a method he learned from his father and Harold Pearson, a neighbor.

Or use pig spleen - http://www.almanac.com/content/predicting-weather-pig-spleen

http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/us/12

Annual Weather Summary: November 2009 to October 2010

Winter will be much colder than normal in the north, with near-normal temperatures in the south. The coldest periods will occur in early to mid-December, early and late January, early and mid-February, and early March. Precipitation will be near or slightly below normal, with above-normal snowfall in the north and below-normal snowfall in the south. The snowiest periods will occur in mid-November, mid- and late January, mid-February, and early and mid-March.

April and May will be slightly warmer than normal, with near-normal precipitation.

Summer will be cooler and rainier than normal, despite hot weather in mid-July and early August.

September and October will bring near-normal precipitation. Temperatures will be below normal, on average, in the north and above normal in the south.

The answer why the MET office was wrong is the same reason most other Met offices in the west have been constantly wrong of late: "Hide the decline"...They are all still using "data" from the global warming army of snake oil salesmen and their lobbyists.

I remember spring 2008 when a guy where I worked said: "The weatherman says we are in for one sizzling hot summer"...I had doubts then as I had already read about solar minimum at that time. We did not have a warm summer...the same was predicted for summer 09 and it was even colder than 08.

My wife heard the same thing this last fall: "Winter 2009/10 will be very mild for Canada"
Believe me, it won't and next summer?: Even milder than last with more cloudy conditions.
Google: Solar Minimum.

Yes, there is definitely a 'revolution' of sorts coming to us in the supposably 'free' west.
When there is absolutely nothing left to trust within our elite controlled institutions: Government, education, science, media
The new "dark ages" are amoung us and a "Renaissance" is imminent.

'you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows'

Who's the chick.....?

When my father-in-law was flying jets for the RCAF in Europe during the sixties a Met officer bragged that the two day forecast was 50% accurate to which the pilots replied that they could replace the met officer with a coin toss. I'm polishing up a loonie right now to check the Monday forecast.

We should get used to the upper echelons of Government and their pet tech experts telling grotesque whoppers which defy both reality and all perception.

The elite are on a roll. They have had control of our culture for so long and manufactured our realities for us with all the ease the info tech age affords, that when they are caught in an obvious fraud they simply tell a bigger lie and rubber stamp it with official seals of authority.

So far this month we have been told by officialdom, their "experts" and their concubine media, that:

A)Cell phone RF radiation no longer causes brain tumors, it cures Alzheimer's,
http://tinyurl.com/yd883yo

B)That Melamine is actually good for us,
http://www.enn.com/top_stories/article/6565

C)That abnormally cold weather is a sign of global warming and
http://news.mongabay.com/2009/0122-climate.html

D)that airport body scanning is not dehumanizing it actually enhances your privacy.
http://tinyurl.com/y94ey3q

It's official! 2010 kicks off the decade of chronic junk science deceit. If they'll lie so big about things so small what else are they lying about?

My prediction:
Rain before 7...dark by mid-night.....
100% success rate.....

Back when dinosaurs roamed the earth or else the 1970's when I was learning to fly aircraft I checked the weather conditions for my first solo cross country flight. Clear, sunny and warm according to the report in the tower so off I went. I hadn't gone a hundred miles before I ran into a cloud bank at 1000 feet. I finished my four hour flight flying at 500 feet until I got back to my starting point which was clear and sunny. Never looked at weather forecasting/reporting the same again.

Joe:

That musta been hard on your underwear(inexperience and all).
Even with 500' of sky under your wheels things get a bit bumpy---even under cloud.
They don't regulate a hard-deck of 2000' because they are dictatorial.
Crop dusters prefer early morning and late afternoon for several reasons----calm air limits application drift......and less encounters the low level turbulance of mid-day.

This guy should be the next winner of the HUYA award.. by a long shot.

http://www.alterxmedia.com/gore.html

Joe @ 1:08 right, good advice! Typical bureaucrat!

Looks like it will be getting darker this evening but will lighten up by tomorrow morning. Half an hour earlier in Newfoundland. Now can I get a performance bonus?

btw, loved the Two Ronnies

It was a bit exciting Sasquatch but when I shut down my aircraft I went back to the tower to close my flight plan, I asked the guy in the tower if he knew about the cloud bank. He said he did now that I told him and he was always thankful for the information the pilots gave him.

I passed a whole can of coke through my nose.

I know, from checking its web site, that MET is the UK's National Weather Service.

But, I wanted to know what MET stands for. (Might gEt iT right?) Help, please.

P.S. I've also noticed that the five day forecast is NEARLY ALWAYS incorrect.

For that reason alone, I'd have given AGW a pass: if they can't tell what's going to happen less than a week from now, why on earth would anyone trust them to make predictions further out?

What an unconvincing toady the well heeled Mr. Hirst is. Good Lord, deliver us!

(That was a BBC interview. I have to give them credit. Can anyone imagine the CBC holding Mr. Hirst's feet to the fire in such a way?)

johann

Have you considered that the "models" are correct and the weather/climate is wrong?

This video is priceless. The Big Guy being in the hot seat being called out.

..and he obfuscates.

Sasquatch and Texas Canuck;
My Dad had a 100% success rate with his predictions as well:
Tomorrow the sun will rise in the east, and go down in the west. It will be bright during the day and dark at night.
I have inherited that amazingly accurate ability. Performance bonus indeed! Bring it on.

Isn't Hirst a perfect example of Thomas Sowell's analysis of an intellectual.

Hirst is an idea man and produces nothing of real value and is not held responsible for his forecasts no matter how much damage they do or that they are lies. He is rewarded handsomely by his fellow intellectuals and applauded by his academia for refusing to allow the questioning of his pronouncements by those beneath him.

His toady is now gathering signatures of his fellow elites to support him, not because he is correct but because the religion of AGW can not be challenged.

not because he is correct but because the religion of AGW can not be challenged.

Nor academia besmirched