The Sound Of Settled Science

| 16 Comments

"Predicted Values"

swpc_sunspot_010309.png


It's what they pay them the big bucks for.


16 Comments

Yes, the sun will definitely "turn on" tomorrow and ramp up like a budget deficit from the Big "O".

I could make a better prediction of solar cycle activity based on the number of neighbourhood cats that choose to hold their nightly meetings in my shrubbery. As at least I am quite certain that it won't escalate to 100 cats by the middle of next week (And if by some quirk of fate 100 cats do appear, perhaps Warren Kinsella knows a good restaurant that can come and "take care of the problem", but I digress)

So just what the heck am I looking at? I see two "predicted" curves slightly out of phase and different in amplitude.

Is this just another way to say that for all the brainpower around, we still don't know a lot about mother nature and that big old fireball in the sky. Or that humanity is basically a bunch of sheeple who will grasp at anything (diety, dogma, theory etc) to put their faith in.

Perhaps Dr. Tolian Soran has something to do with this? /trekkie alert/

a solar hockey stick. what a tribute to the canajun game.

Yea well, honest scientist don’t manipulate their data, besides, anyone pushing AGW has pretty much been labeled a Fraud.

Not to mention; We were told the Ice Caps were melting, they are not. We were told El Nino was warming, it was not. We were told Sun Spots had no effect on Earth's Climate, they do.

NASA , IPCC and NOAA have all been caught fudging their data. What does that say about their organizations ? And , what does that say about a bunch of folks ragging on an apparently honest scientist ?

Well, show me an apparent honest AGW Scientist and we will stop ragging.

This data is poorly presented. As Jim B says in the comments, they should back things up a bit, and show the predictions for the past few years overlaid by actuals.

"""""they should back things up a bit, and show the predictions for the past few years overlaid by actuals."""""


maybe they should present themselves bfore the senate with their stride down around their ankles, at least with my suggestion there is a posibility

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1156741/Luxury-toilet-paper-harmful-environment-gas-guzzling-cars.html?ITO=1490

I'm going to do my part, I'm going to use left over election material. Oh wait... won't flush.

Same as tactic as all Kult leaders use - push back the End-of-The-World date and make a new batch of Kool-Aide.

Kate's link, Watts Up With That, was voted the #1 Science Blog for a reason. Read some of the other articles and comments there. Perhaps John Cross has and hence his disappearance.

Some meat for your stew --

Svalgaard's view is very close to being a consensus among solar physicists. The prior general view that there had been a lot of past solar variation was based on 1) a lack of other explanations for past climate variations, 2) several astrophysics papers in the early '90s (Baliunas and Soon go their start with this stuff) purporting to demonstrate that the Sun is a variable star and 3) analysis of the Be-10 proxy. Subsequent work found 1) evidence for volcanic activity that pretty much explains things, 2) fundamental errors in the variable Sun papers and 3) bias in the Be-10 proxy. Also, while sunspots do vary through the solar cycle in a manner that tracks the irradiance change, modern observations have made it clear that there's no particular correlation between irradiance and the quantity of sunspots. Finally, many of the older sunspot counts may have been undercounts due to volcanic dust, meaning that the Maunder Minimum in particular is probably largely an artifact.

Been waiting fro another post like this to point it out: IT'S FREEZING HERE! This is the Left Coast, people, we should have had daffodils long ago! It blizzarded in my part of the coast just two days ago, I'm talking silver-dollar size flakes, bad visibility, some of it has still stuck because it's COLD!

I have commented to a few AGW true believers that "must be global warming" to catch their reaction: a totally un-ironic "yeah". What is the matter with these people, they're missing a golden opportunity! The ecotards should be TAKING CREDIT for the cold: "Yes, it is much colder than usual because Leo DiCaprio switched to a Prius." Dummies!

BTW, anyone else from the coast might remember that it snowed on April 21 last year. I'd forgotten myself, but was going through baby videos the other day getting dates on them prior to sending them to the digitizing service and found this clip of the snow falling. Isn't the transience of human memory a wonderfully exploitable thing?

time to burn all graphs.

"You just wait. I'll be proven right. You'll see."

It will be sooo much better when those nasty Silicon Valley companies move out and stop emitting those greenhouse gases.
Just what the U.S. needs right now.
----------------------------------------
From-
"Silicon Valley manufacturers must reduce greenhouse gas emissions"

"The financial impact is going to be severe," Gus Ballis, a spokesman for chip maker NEC Electronics America Inc., a subsidiary of NEC Electronics Corp. in Japan, told the board. The Sacramento-area facility, one of California's largest high-tech plants, will have until 2014 to comply because it is retooling.

But, Ballis warned, "We're potentially on the chopping block -- whether they are going to keep us or pull our production back to Japan."
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-silicon27-2009feb27,0,6919141.story

And they thought they could improve on sheep entrails -- Ha!

Anyone notice the obvious lack of Northern lights this winter?

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