The Liberals Look Forward: Brand New Year, Brand New Leader

That's a great trend in the numbers in Quebec.
Let Ignatieff get his feet on the ground and go head to head with Harper for six months or a year while the recession deepens, then see the poll numbers.

One more reason to ditch those franco ninny leeches?

This is a pretty puny poll: only 500 people at a time when the last coverage of federal politics focussed on the coalition. As well, I'd want to seee more of a breakdown of those Tory numbers in Ontario. Harper probably won't pick up a seat in the GTA and has blown off Quebec, so where can he grow?

Bourrie Quotes
"That's a great trend in the numbers in Quebec."
"This is a pretty puny poll."
Why are you celebrating a puny poll?
No contradiction there.

Mark's right.

It's difficult to grow, where your potential areas for growth are only in a small handful of downtown Toronto and Montreal areas.

The creamy delicious richness that makes Mark's premise true is that Harper has maxed out in all other areas, now completely dominating in all of the west, suburban and rural Ontario, rural and much of suburban Quebec.

There's lots, and lots and lots of room to "grow" for the Liberals.

They'll retake the West any time now I bet....

Gee, Mark where can Harper grow, for instance, from 38% pop vote to 43%? Hmm, Bloc down 40% (10 - 6%) from last election, NDP and Grits dead west of Toronto. Hmm, new comfort position of Canadians is Tory majority rather than minority.

Oh where, where can he grow. Mark, give your head a shake.

The ony good news for Grits is, apparently, gains in Quebec, with another 2% pts spread around. Tories OTOH, have gained 5% pts nationwide. This before Ignatieff opens his mouth with platitudes (sorry, no Obama here - no fundraising or policy formation skills with Ignatieff, he has to learn them, fast).

By all means, attempt to seize power end of Jan 09, then we will have an election with Harper majority.

Oh, right Mark, I forgot, the "smart money" is on Harper leaving this year. Yeah, right, keep living the delusion.

In other news,

there's not much room for "growth" for the Stanley Cup Champions, poor chaps, they can't win anything more.

Meanwhile the team in last place must be so pleased at how much potential they have to "grow."

Will Chuck Guite run for the Liberals now that he's out? They'll probably need a brown paper bagman.

Mark, the Conservatives need 12 more seats for a majority. Without Quebec and the GTA, there are:
BC: 14 seats
Alberta: 1 seat
Saskatchewan: 1 seat
Manitoba: 5 seats
Yukon: 1 seat
NWT: 1 seat
Ontario - GTA: 21 seats
Quebec: 0 seats but I think some Bloc seats will be in play
NB: 4 seats
NS: 7 seats
PEI: 3 seats
NL: 7 seats

I don't think it will take much to pick up 12 of 61 seats as long as the coalition remains as a viable option for the NDP and Liberals.

And this is before a campaign where the question that will dog Iggy is "how could you sign onto an agreement that has in its first sentence the following "The new Government is supported by parties that share a commitment to fiscal responsibility, a progressive agenda and a belief in the role of Government to act as a partner with Canadians and Quebecers." ?". same goes for his defenders - Maybe Mark would like to try and explain the indefensible?

Iggy is dead man walking outside of Quebec politically-speaking.

Now excuse me while I put my gun down beside this barrel of dead fish,

as I make another online donation to the already massive CPC warchest.

Feet at the throat, and all that.

It should be noted as a poster above already has that this is a very shallow poll... I suspect the numbers are better for the BQ (in QC, natch)and for the CP in the ROC.

Mark Bourrie says...

"Harper probably won't pick up a seat in the GTA "

I thought thronhill(Peter Kent), Mississaga(Bob Dechert) and Oakville(Lisa Raitt) are part of the GTA?

Well it sure looks like Taliban Jack is getting his reward for trying to stage the coup.

The sound Whacko-Jacko hears is Thomas Mulcair sharpening his shiv so when he plants it in Layton's back it will go clean through.

Gotta feel sorry for Iggy . . . spends all that time and money getting a proper haircut, gets his eyebrows done and even chainsaws back his nose bush to just stubble and he still just gets a dead cat bounce.

Poor Warnout Kantsellit will be apoplectic that his impact has been to take Iggy down to the gutter level where ex untalented punk rockers go to get all moldy & slimy & stinky.

Ya can't wash the stench of Adscam off the Liberals and Iggy just bathed himself in the smell by using old guard party operatives in his backroom.

Election probably will be held after the new seats are assigned in

1) Suburban Ontario
2) Alberta
3) Suburabn Vancouver and the Interior of BC

All of those areas are competitive for the conservatives. Growth potential in all of those

Not one single seat assigned to Quebec, Cons just need to hold what they have, all those races are one on ones with the Bloc.

What happened was that Iggy took mojo away from Jack. So Jack needs to train his guns on Iggy and the Liberals to acheive his goal. Iggy will have to fight off the NDP.

Conservative majority is definitely possible. So 416 wont go Blue....oh well. But with 45% numbers in Ontario I wouldnt say they dont have a chance. I think it is 21 more seats that are being added, so if the Tories pick up all of the new seats, they have majority, if they pick up some combination of less than the new seats and others then they have majority.

Iggy needs time to slink away from the coalition with the Bloc. Iggy is good for one election only, especially if it takes a year to get in place. He is 61 now, is Harper even 50? So Iggy needs to be very careful about when he pulls the trigger, to early and he loses and Bob Rae will demand his shot, and too late and he we are looking at a PM who is receiving Canada Pension, not the message of change people really want to see.

Igg has one shot only, and the question is whether the Libs and NDP can ever gather enough votes to govern without the Bloc. I will say again that nay hint of the Bloc being in the coalition will kill every Liberal seat outside of 416 or Ottawa that is west of Quebec.

I am sure Danny williams wont pull another dont vote conservative stunt. With oil this low he needs to start currying favour again. Thats probably 2 seats right there. Dosanjh wont survive another challenge, nor will Paul Szabo and Jaffir's seat will return to the cons, so thats 5...so tories need 16 out of the new 21....very doable

The GTA is getting KILLED right now by three layers of Liberal/NDP morons.

You've got Mayor Dave "Gun-control" Miller, NDPee. Dalton "The Reptile" McSquinty, Liberal Ontario premiere. Then there's -all- the MPs for the region being Liberal except for Smilin' Jack and Olivia.

The natives are getting mighty restless, what with them paying the highest taxes in the province and looking at a major recession AND pukes shooting each other in the street. And the traffic! Dang!

Growth region for lower tax/law and order candidates? Call me crazy, but I think so. Particularly in the 'burbs, where the people who vote actually hold the mortgage for the place they flop in.

Rexdale and Mississauga South will vote tribal, maybe if the CPC wants to win there they should look into which tribe has the most guys, maybe pick one of them that isn't 100% crooked.

This poll proved my premise.

Stephen Harepr CAN win a majority without pandering to Quebec seperatists.

French-Canadians are great people who love this country, it's just that their loudmouth politicians suck.

One more point.

Noticed Jackass Layton is starting to turn off more and more people.

It's good that the severely normal Canadian finally understands Layton was behind the bloodless putsch attempt and are punishing him accordingly.

Thanks for the link, Kate!

I personally wouldn't mind if the Coalition brought down the Harper Government and took their little plan right to the Canadian people for endorsement.

If Canadians ended up voting in the Coalition, I would respect their choice.

But if Ignatieff wants the trust of the Canadian people, he's going to have to do it the old-fashioned way - he'll have to earn it.

If Iggy was the PC leader his 30 year American connection would lead every mention of his name.Because he is the MSM's golden child his ties to the hated U.S.A.are never mentioned.

I respectfully point out that Mr. Ignatieff lost to Mr. Dion in the last Liberal Party Convention. This says something for the strength of his political abilities.

While the poll is not of large size it does serve to confirm Canadians have continued to frown on the coalition despite Iggy's new face at the helm.

Seems as though the liberals stole votes from the NDP and the bloc. I'd prefer it that way. Ignatieff at least seems like a reasonable guy.

@ Mark Bourrie, Harper could probably pick up 1-6 more seats in the GTA. You'd be surprised how close some of the ridings are.

One reason we keep seeing low voting numbers and minority governments is due to charisma - or rather, lack of it.
A significant percentage of the voting public will never vote on the issues - period; they will only vote for the leader's image. If they don't perceive charisma, they simply don't vote. And many of these people have been sitting on their hands since Chrétien retired. Without a major change in circumstance - such as a perceived end to the recession - Harper can only be beaten by himself or a charismatic opposition leader - whic Ignatieff is not.
It won't matter which party has the charismatic leader first; that will be the party that gets a majority due to what could be called the "snake-charming" effect.
So, we'll be stuck with minority government for awhile yet. But if the CPC doesn't have a death wish, it should take the opportunity that Ignatieff's leadership presents to put a charismatic successor in place - before the Liberals beat them to it.

I agree with Gord Turk and also would like Mark's explanation on how he plans to spin this. DOA on election day here in B.C. is my bet and we are angry.
"The new Government is supported by parties that share a commitment to fiscal responsibility, a progressive agenda and a belief in the role of Government to act as a partner with Canadians and Quebecers."

The labour vote might be the most important bloc this time around, especially in Southern Ontario. I wouldn't rule out increased NDP vote if enough union shops go under. I don't think the Liberals can capture/hold that bloc, and whether or not the CPC does depend very much on how they stick handle those that find themselves out of work after long careers in the manufacturing sector.

The Greens are led by a woman who has shown time and time again that she's only in it for herself and, rather than lose what little support they had, it's increasing. I don't get it.

The only people wanting Harper to leave the party are lieberals because they know that they can not beat him in an election.

Harper is going to wear this recession. Ontario is hurting badly and Herper doesn't seem to care, and Harper blew off any possible growth in Quebec with all the separatist and Quebec bashing during the coalition controversy. That's why the Liberal numbers are up in Quebec. I see Quebec-bashing is alive and well here. Quebeckers see it, too. I spend half my time in Quebec and I assure you they get it when Harper talks nicely about sovereintists in French and nastily about separatists in English.
As for Iggy and the coalition, in three months that will be stale. All people will care about is the economy and how out of sync Harper is with the new administration in Washington.

Mark:
..."how out of sync Harper is with the new administration in Washington."

That's supposed to be a bad thing?!?

The Big O can't compare to the strength and experience that PMSH has shown, right from the start. Harper hasn't only been up against the Lib machine , he's had to deal with the sneery MSM.
Accomplishments too many to list here, but for starters uniting the conservatives, and Prime Minister after 2 difficult campaigns.His experience as an economist has carried Canada, in spite of the fear-mongering by the dramatic opposition, media and unions.
Obama has had every election handed to him by his fans in the media, and backroom boys, and his most difficult task so far was 'what to do with Hill-Billy'.

Darn right he's out of sync with 'new-Washington'.

Thank God for that!

Headline in the National Post today: 'Ignatieff-mania' fails to sweep nation: poll

http://www.nationalpost.com/most_popular/story.html?id=1138586

Opening paragraph: "Michael Ignatieff scores significantly better than Stéphane Dion on a range of leadership questions but still trails Stephen Harper on almost all fronts, according to the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll.'

The article goes on to say that Prince Iggy is no "game changer."

More good news for the PMSH and the CPC.

Mark:

Far as I know, even the US has slowly been losing its manufacturing base since the mid-90s.

That's not something you can pin on Harper ... he was not even in power at the time.

If you're still in Ontario and you see that the manufacturing base has been erodiing for more than a decade, there's only one question for you.

Why are you still in Ontario?

mark:

Two points:

1. The cdn economy is faring better thusfar than any other in the industrialized world as far as I can tell - polling puts harper miles ahead of his competition an the economy issue.

2. I think that the January budget will be very very well-recieved by cdns and the markets.

In closing I would say that hoping the separatist coalition debacle will grow stale is pretty weak especially with the financial might of the cpc paying for ads to remind cdns that iggy was in favour - and continues to be in favour- of it.

Harper cared enough about Ontario to pump billions into nearly insolvent American auto manufacturers.
It's interesting bourrie uses the word "care"; it's the liberal approach to politics, it's important to look really caring and feel people's pain.
BTW, I live in Ontario and voted for Harper, but i still wish he hadn't made those alleged loans.

mark bourrie - I'm in touch with a lot of Quebecois as well, having lived there for over 15 years and I disagree with your point about 'separatists'.

Remember, in two referendums, Quebecers have rejected separation. And the PQ and Bloc very carefully steer themselves from the question, from even the hint of 'yet another referendum' which they know they will lose.

Most certainly, Harper and those of us who 'bashed' the Bloc during the coalition phase were right to criticize such a set up. Can you imagine, the Coalition set itself up to govern, without any mandate from the electorate to do so, and set itself up to govern through TWO budgets without any mandate from the electorate - by having the Bloc presign an agreement to support those budgets - without even knowing a single item that would be in those budgets! That's a violation of their duty as MPs and a violation of our rights to 'no taxation without representation'. That Coalition was the most blatant attack on democracy in Canadian history and deserved all our criticism.

The Bloc is not equivalent to Quebecers. However,the Bloc is now, unfortunately, the default party of Quebec. You vote for it because it is a Quebec party. The other parties are viewed as 'Canadian' parties. Quebecers don't want separation but they do see the two domains as separate.

Ignatieff will appeal to many in the Liberal party, and in Quebec as well; he'll appeal to those people who like a Sovereign as leader, someone who is viewed as a King, a Ruler. Harper isn't a sovereign; he governs within a democratic system of rules and restraints. Ignatieff is setting himself up as a Sovereign. Note how he talks to Harper - telling him that he 'must' get the economy in order; he 'must' do such and such. Or else. Heh. Ignatieff the Sovereign telling his underlings what to do. Some people like that.

A key problem with the Liberals and the notion of a Sovereign as leader is that this was the style 20 and more years ago. I think that the power that has moved to the individual via the internet has changed this system..and Sovereigns aren't as welcome as they used to be.

What the He** is it with the Librano$ -- you know-- the party that swears that they're for the "little people" and that they represent populism as opposed to the CPC's supposed elitism?

In fact, the Liberals "rule" like they're Royalty, putting an elitist leader in place without a convention, expecting to take over the government without an election, ordering Canada's duly elected Prime Minister that he'd better do this or do that.

'Talk about perpetrating the BIG LIE.

Everything the Liberals say they are, they aren't. They aren't for the "little people," they're for special interest groups made up of their friends and associates. They aren't for the average Canadian, they're for big business like Power Corp. They aren't for Canadian sovereignty, they're happy to let the BQ have the final say in their failed attempt to put together a coalition as an alternative government to Canada's duly elected government, and they're all for the UN ordering us around and are happy to support the increasingly undemocratic EU. (Vaclav Klaus's leadership is a breath of fresh air -- so watch for the Librano$ to oppose his leadership).

The Liberals stand for nothing they profess to stand for and, thank G*d, there are a lot of Canadians who are beginning to realize this.

If we are ever to get Quebec to stand on its own two feet, without western equalization pymts, we have to have a majority govt without lots of seats in Quebec. The unelected interm leader of the liberals needs to win all of Quebec and he will never do that. And he will never get western seats needed to even form a minority.
The one good thing about the falling price of oil is that will be less Alberta money for Quebec daycare etc.
Lots of money has been given to banks, here and in the US, so why don't banks help out the consumer by lowering interest rates, or perhaps forgiving 3 mos interest, to spur the economy.
For the 3rd year we never used a CC for Christmas purchases.

Thanks, ET, for your analysis of the Liberal "way."

Well done ET. And Mary I agree that the only way the socialist/separatist coalition that runs Quebec will be routed is by electing a majority party with few to nil Quebec seats. Only then will their extortion tactics be rendered irrelevant to the functioning of the country.

Interesting rumours out of Manitoba: Gary Doer getting ready to go after Jack Layton for leadership of the federal NDPs, retired MP Bill Blaikie to head up the provincial wing?

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/manitoba/story/2008/12/05/blaikie-back.html?ref=rss

It is interesting to note that in the Winnipeg Free Press Jan 3/09 that on page A8 shows headlines "Liberals Gaining Under Ignatieff". In the same newspaper on page A14 under the 'editorial' section headlines "The Taste Of Freedom".this column tells the exact opposite to Page A8. As the Free Press has been known to be very 'left leaning' for decades who is lying here?. Another left wing paper making a debauchery of the facts. Interesting.

ET: "Can you imagine, the Coalition set itself up to govern, without any mandate from the electorate to do so, and set itself up to govern through TWO budgets without any mandate from the electorate - by having the Bloc presign an agreement to support those budgets - without even knowing a single item that would be in those budgets!"

ET, I think the Bloc knew very well what some of the details of those budgets would have been. You can be sure Duceppe ensured Senate seats and lots of largesse for Quebec. You have made the point before that legions of our media totally missed - the "coalition" required the support (aka "balance of POWER") of a regional party, notwithstanding they are separatist (spare us the BS of "sovereignty," a political pipe dream), for which the voters of only one province can electorally voice their support or disdain.

So, Quebecers can bitch and moan when Harper calls the Bloc (he was talking about them not all Quebeces) separatists. They are, and Duceppe made that point right after the "signing ceremony."

Even if CPC were reduced to zero seats in Quebec (they won't be), they still will likely win majority if election held soon.

Mark, as for "wearing the recession," there are two points you should consider. First, Canadians see Mr Harper as their best option in difficult economic circumstances. Notwithstanding that, unless "coalition" pulls the trigger after the budget later this month, it's quite likely Canada will be in recovery phase before Ignatieff musters the necessary policy and financing to fight an election.

Even so, he will wear the albatross of the coalition around his neck; the MSM can bleat on about how he didn't actually support an arrangement he signed on for and has yet to publicly repudiate or criticize, the facts will remain. Certainly the CPC will blitz the airwaves with commercials and talking points on that very theme.

The results in Quebec may seem encouraging, Mark, but consider a few more points. Ignatieff hasn't actually presented a single policy on any issue; just a lot of sabre rattling (bluffing IMHO). He has a penchant for tripping over his tongue on many issues, and Quebec is a minefield and graveyard for many politicians.

A more interesting point is that the Bloc always seems inert between elections, only to get their machinery and rhetoric worked up to a fever pitch when the writ is dropped. Oh, one more thing, the CPC lost support in last election because they didn't have a proper organization to blunt the Bloc message (the arts funding was simply the catalyst). They are already making the much needed organizational changes in Quebec.

When I compare the anger in Quebec over Mr Harper's remarks with the anger generated over the the opposition's cynical attempt at power in ROC, I say there is no contest. There will be 21 new seats up for grabs, none in Quebec, and all that is required for CPC majority is to win 12 net additional seats in existing ridings, plus at least 11 in the new ones.

Harper already has his majority outside Quebec. If his support is anywhere near 43% on election day (it will likely be higher given Ignatieff's arrogance and intemperate tone and Layton's continued poor judgement, with both of them nicely tied together in coalition debacle), then Harper will be unstoppable.

Oh yeah, I forgot, the "smart money" is on him being replaced in 2009. Not going to happen - Harper is strengthened now, not because of anything he did, but because of the brutally poor jugement of the opposition in their attempted power grab. No longer is a vote for Bloc or NDP, or even Liberals, seen as a sideways vote to prevent CPC majority; no, it is seen as facilitating a "progressive" seizure of power. Canadians clearly prefer a Harper majority over this coalition garbage.

But then again, Ignatieff is a very inexperienced politician who prefers to wax philosophically rather than formulate policy, is 61 years old, so may not have the patience to rebuild the party.

If he pulls the pin, then the Liberals can truly rebuild, under Bob Rae, after being truly pummeled by the electorate.

Cut off the equalization to Quebec and see how Canadian they really are.Ontario is now a have not,so joins Quebec as the 2 most populated provinces in Canada sucking or draining the money out of the oil producing provinces that they are trying to shut down.Do we have brains in these provinces or what??How long do we feel sorry for these money suckers from Quebec.When do we just cut them off .Take a corridor of land that ensures that the East is not cut off and let Quebec go,they are dragging us down to their level,instead of helping us become the greatest and wealthiest nation in the world.

I think the most interesting part of this poll is the number of people who responded "would not vote." Historically voter turnout has been extremely poor. So if all those people actually turned out to vote, then you have something.

This poll, although fun to look at, is bunk. Since when would 90-96% of the electorate turn out for a vote?

When pollsters start getting accurate information such as those who would not vote, then I'll start paying real attention.

bert at 6:43 PM

there was a few years ago an article on what quebec brought into canada, and if we (canada) give them just that and an invoice for monies owed, it would make a rather interesting scenario:-))))

Ignatieff is gaining support in Quebec at the expense of the Bloc because the soft Bloc vote is appreciative that Iggy is sympathetic to the Bloc and in fact would form a coalition with them.
Duceppe rolled the dice but it will now come back to bite him in the ass as he loses big time in the next election of which Harper may be the beneficiary because Liberals,Bloc and NDP split the anti-conservative vote.
However in the end with the coalition the Liberals will be big losers outside of Quebec (for the simple reason that Ignatieff was not smart enough to jettison the coalition idea once he became leader but instead renewed as party of his platform). Liberals have lost legitimacy in the rest of Canada and will pay heavily in the next election. Anyone voting Liberal in the next election will not have a clue where his party will stand on any issue or with whom.
The Bloc will lose heavily in their soft support in Quebec and their hard core support is not happy that Duceppe would put separatism on the back burner and help make Canada work.
Layton and NDP abandoned socialist principles and is now seen as a fringe party and Layton and NDP have admitted that by showing their only way to power is to get on the coat tails of Liberals and Separatists.

Aww, too bad. Too bad conservatives don't have the guts to face parliament.

Here's the latest example of why Quebec should not be a part of the federal govt in Ottawa.

In 2006-07 Quebec got $12.966 bil in Total Transfers from Ottawa, ie the first yr of Harper govt.

In 2008-09, Quebec will get $16.774 bil from Ottawa. Or $2166 per person in Quebec.

So what was the big issue in Quebec in the last election?
Well they would not vote for the Harper and the CPC because they cut $24 MILLION from culture spending programs.

$24 million divided by 8 million Quebec people is $3 per person.

They got $2166 per head in transfer payments. Quebecers could have taken $3 or $4 out of their own money to spend on their own culture programs.

But clearly Quebecers don't want to spend their own money on their own culture - they want other SUCKERS/people to finance it.

Quebecers don't need to vote themselves out of Canada - they need to be thrown out after this last Gilles Duceppe coalition anti-democratic stupidity.

Western Canada doesn't need to finance this crap.
Let generous Ontario or Danny Williams finance it.

Philboyd
The Conservatives would be just too happy to face the voters in a general election and we will see where Liberals stand when it comes to facing the voter - did you want to guess - they maybe even sit on their hands again -believe it.
I never subscribed to the opinion that they would have been defeated in December because the recent track record of the Liberals was to threaten a lot but when vote is called they sit on their stools 9 we all remember that don't we)

Just as you want other suckers to finance you, rockyt.