Good evening ladies and gentlemen, welcome to SDA Late Nite Radio. Tonight, pursuant to our Sunday night classical music show, it’s cameras inside the pipe organ time again. Here for your delectation is John Scott Whiteley performing the fugue from Johann Sebastian Bach‘s Concertato Prelude and Fugue in D, BWV 532, on a four-manual organ built by Arp Schnitger in the late 17th century, the details of which I have as yet been unable to determine (6:30).
| Today’s ΣVe/n: 4.98 » 5.09 (136 Seats) | |||
| Angus: 6.60 |
EKOS: 4.80 |
Decima: 6.00 » 5.49 |
Ipsos: 3.15 |
| Leger: 5.67 |
Nanos: 2.40 » 3.60 |
Segma: 6.96 |
Strategic: 4.41 |
Polls are current as of Friday or Saturday. Pick graph image for larger view. I have moved the dark blue Conservative majority breakpoint line in the graph from +8 to +6.5, since that is more accurate. For the last three days, ΣVe/n has predicted 137, 135, and 136 Conservative seats. The current spread is from 122 to 160 seats.
Your Reader Tips are, as always, welcome in the comments.
I was reading about this today over at Macleans, Andrew Coin did a write up about it.
Need a Ve of 8 for a majority if I remember correctly, their heading that way I think.
I.m sort of hoping though I don’t think Harper has really earned one.
Better than another minority though.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone.We have so many reasons to be thankful.
I am certainly thankful to live in Canada…and I am especially thankful for Kates blog.
Count your blessings and enjoy the rest of the w/e!
Tuesday can’t come fast enough.
If you do a linear interpolation between the 1998 and the 2006 results, Blanks, as shown in this table in my Ve essay, then the Conservative majority breakpoint is ΣVe/n = +6.5. While my original breakpoints of +8, 0, -4, and -8 were not technically wrong, now that we are working in the upper range, I thought it would be a good idea to update the +6.5 breakpoint to be more accurate, as now shown in the above graph. I pointed this out in the comments to Mr. Coyne’s entry on this matter.
Nevertheless, as reflected by the latest data, again assuming the trends hold and the polls are representative, I don’t see a majority in the cards, at this point it looks like a stronger minority by a dozen or so seats.
Hey! Back at you Bluetech, to Kate and to all who blog here. Happy Thanksgiving, indeed!!! Think of being Canadian as winning a lottery. 33 million in a world of some 6 point something billion people. You bet we won a lottery! All we have to do is suffer the fools (Layton, May, Borat etc…) In spite of the markets – life is good where we are.
Hey Vit..I have noticed the national polls have not included ‘undecided’ for awhile. Have you considered that in any way with your calculations?
No. Yet as I understand it, when “undecideds” are “included” they are allocated proportionally anyway, so I don’t see that it would make much difference.
Re: The Prime Minister will not be doing any open media scrums in the next two days.
I heard that there are good reasons for this – not related to any election strategy.
Number one is that the PM’s security alert has been on High for several weeks and is now even higher. That is why all of his events are closed and attendees have to be screened as they enter.
Number Two is that being Thanksgiving the PM wants to give the media a break too- no scrums means they don’t have to keep filing stories. He has given several one on one media interviews already today – including on an open line radio show.
Number Three: He is using the travelling time between campaign stops to get on with the business of some pressing issues for the country.
Happy Thanksgiving all.
“Obama Born In Kenya? His Grandmother Says Yes.”
by Tamar Yonah (Israel National News)
Someone is lying. According to Obama’s Kenyan (paternal) grandmother, as well as his half-brother and half-sister, Barack Hussein Obama was born in Kenya, not in Hawaii as the Democratic candidate for president claims. His grandmother bragged that her grandson is about to be President of the United States and is so proud because she was present DURING HIS BIRTH IN KENYA, in the delivery room. -This, according to several news sites and Pennsylvania attorney Philip J. Berg (see video below) who is, surprisingly, a life long democrat himself. Berg is the former Deputy Attorney General of Pennsylvania, and he has an impressive background in his activities as a democrat, but his support for the party seemingly stops when it comes to his trust in Barack Hussein Obama.
I suppose, for Liberals, they’d better hope it’s hearsay. Otherwise, an unmitigated disaster.
imf…tell that to Bob Fife…he’s having a whine fest on his CTV blog.
Wait…I think that’s too much info for Fife to handle.
Post for the sign generator which has gimped up code.
Elizabeth May I Start Over?
I only want to Green Shaft you this much!
Cheers
Hans-Christian Georg Rupprecht, Commander in Chief
Frankenstein Battalion
2nd Squadron: Ulanen-(Lancers) Regiment Großherzog Friedrich von Baden(Rheinisches) Nr.7(Saarbrucken)
Knecht Rupprecht Division
Hans Corps
1st Saint Nicolaas Army
Army Group “True North”
Hunter has an interesting video posted about a Green Party candidate in Saskatchewan trying to work a strategic voting arrangement with the Liberals.
Special Guest star = Liberal MP Caroline Bennett
Readers should take a few minutes to look at these videos from:
http://neverfindout.org
They come closer to what the McCain campaign should have been doing since the convention, if it had been able to get out of its own way.
“Harper spends final stretch preaching to loyal choir”
(TO Red Star)
TO Red Star says the “loyal choir” = “about 6oo loyal supporters”.
Make that 1,200 cheering voters; on tiny PEI.
“In a school gym at 8:30 in the morning, about 600 supporters from four Prince Edward Island ridings cheered and brandished signs, including one in the camera shot behind the podium: “My Canadian Idol, Stephen Harper.”
Harper said the turnout on a holiday Monday was “a sign of something, a blue tide line sweeping the country.”
“Today, energized and focused on boosting tight local races, Harper threw in a few references to “desperate” local Liberal candidates who are raising “that old chestnut” – fears the Conservatives will not protect unemployment insurance. Harper said he would protect it, and plans to extend parental benefits to self-employed Canadians.
The Conservatives believe at least one, and perhaps two seats of the island’s four – all held by the Liberals – are winnable for the party.
Harper’s tour today takes him back to New Brunswick, and to Vancouver, as does Liberal leader Stéphane Dion’s campaign.”
http://tinyurl.com/4nu3oh
…-
Vote for the “blue tide”.
Vote Conservative.
Vote for PM Harper.
this needs to be its own thread. and go national
Hunter has an interesting video posted about a Green Party candidate in Saskatchewan trying to work a strategic voting arrangement with the Liberals.
Special Guest star = Liberal MP Caroline Bennett
The best visualization of a ‘Prince Hussein of America’ presidency yet realized:
http://mypetjawa.mu.nu/archives/194402.php
It’s interesting how Dion keeps accusing Harper of lying, when it’s Dion who is the liar.
For example, Dion is going around telling people that his Green Shaft will reduce taxes of ‘most people’ by 10%. Wow. That’s quite the reduction. But he’s being, at the minimal, statistically dishonest and in fact, he’s misleading the voter.
The lowest rate of income tax is 15%. Dion’s Green Shaft says it will reduce it to 13.5%. That’s a drop of 1 and a 1/2 percent. BUT, Dion has statistically manipulated these figures.
Instead of using a base of 100% (and that’s what per cent means)..he’s done something called ‘shifting the base’. He’s used 15 instead of 100 as his base. Ten percent of 15…is..1.5. So, he’s telling the voter that their taxes will be reduced by 10%. Wow. The voter thinks that means taxes will go from 15% to 5%. Untrue.
He’s done the same with the higher level of taxation, where he’s telling voters that their tax will be reduced by 4 and 5%. Nope. Only by 1%.
Lies and manipulation of the voters. That’s the Liberal Party.
The Awakening of the MSM!
To Ian Mulgrew/Van Sun: Thank you for this.
Send a thank you to reporter Ian Mulgrew: imulgrew@vancouversun.com
…-
“B.C. Human Rights Tribunal may never live down embarrassing Steyn fiasco
Panel’s hearing over Maclean’s article was an affront to free speech and a waste of public resources and time
The B.C. Human Rights Tribunal has decided right-wing humorist Mark Steyn and Maclean’s magazine are not racist hate-mongers.
How droll.
The panel — chairwoman Heather MacNaughton, Tonie Beharrell and Kurt Neuenfeldt — released on Friday 37 pages of self-righteous justification for dragging Steyn and the Toronto-based publication through a ridiculous process.
The tribunal’s week-long kangaroo hearing in June was a waste of public resources and of Rogers Publishing Ltd.’s money, too.
This make-believe “human rights” complaint was an attempt by the Canadian Islamic Congress to get publicity by taking on a well-known conservative polemicist and the country’s weekly news magazine.
It worked.
This entire process was an affront to our right to free speech and should send a chill down the spine of every Canadian who wants to express an opinion.”
http://tinyurl.com/4mx542 (vancouversun)
Have you noticed the increase in security surrounding the PM? Security facing behind him during speeches. Invitation only rallys. No more briefings. Must be serious and credible threats.
Terrorists? Environuts? Bent nose partisans?
Irwin
What if Obama is elected Pres and then solid evidence reveals that he was indeed born in Kenya? I believe that disqualifies him as Pres. Does Biden then become Pres? If not then who?
If the allegations are substantiated, at the very least there could be impeachment proceedings. That could be a long drawn out process, and politically destabilizing in the extreme. And at a time, economically, when we can’t afford paralysis. A mess in the making if valid.
Steve has hit the nerves of the moonbat leftists.
Go, Steve.
…-
“Stephane Dion, Elizabeth May, and the bribery statute
Elizabeth May has made her call for Green Party voters to cast their votes for the Liberals or the NDP in order to guarantee a win for the Liberal Party and Stephane Dion.
This move has been widely predicted.
But now there is a rumour is that in exchange for influencing the votes of Green Party supporters, Elizabeth May would be appointed a Senator by Stephane Dion, then brought into cabinet as environment minister.
Elizabeth May is denying everything. Of course she is. Someone probably introduced her to Section 481 of the Canada Elections Act.”
http://stevejanke.com/archives/275465.php
Sample Troll:
“As if politics weren’t sleazy and dumb enough without Yanking Steve and his rumours.
You’ll reap what you sow. Defamation lawsuit, coming up.”
Woodporter,
I personally don’t think there’s much to the Kenyan birth issue, or the repatriation issue after obtaining his Indonesian citizenship. But it’s still strange why he doesn’t provide a proper birth certificate and end it. That being said, the ongoing Acorn investigation may strip him of his presidency, if allowed to continue. There seems to be a lot more trouble for him there.
In any event, some are referring to this as the ‘October Surprise.’
NEWS FLASH — Conservatives 158, Liberals 71, Bloc 48, NDP 29, IND 2
Ctv’s Rosemary Thompson was just on with a report from New Glasgow. She did not mention that Lizzie was polling third out of three,or anything about the controversy over strategic voting. The ultimate puff piece, focused entirely on the greens possibly doing something this election.Oh well,only a few hours left until lizzie realizes that canadians are a lot smarter than she looks.
Did anyone else get a phone call from PMSH today?
I got a recorded message asking me to talk to a family member who wasn’t thinking of voting & convince them to go out and vote for the CPC. Harper wasn’t begging or pleading for me to do it in his tone, it was pretty good actually.
“Arctic sea ice continues to rebound”
“I’ve been so impressed with the recovery thus far for Arctic sea ice, I’ve added a live icon for it in the lower right under the global satellite image. Just click on it to get a full sized graph like above.
Watch the red line as it progresses. So far we are back to 2005 levels, and significantly ahead of last year at this time.”
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/13/arctic-sea-ice-continues-to-rebound-quick-link-graphic-added/
Birds of a feather Obama
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vAFGAUsh6Q
Stomp
Just out…CTV announced that the Cadman tapes were tampered with (by experts hired by the Liberal Party no less!) I wonder who did the tampering…not the Liberals i am sure…they wouldnt stoop that low! O well Harper is well on his way to pick up a cool $3.5 mil.
Also just out…New Nanos Poll numbers…maybe majority territory?
Conserv 37%
Libs 26%
NDP 20%
Bloq 8%
Green 7%
“Remember that Lenin and Che were considered criminals by repressors in their times before being championed as heroes for the people and true, enduring change agents.
Change must come from the streets.
So let the hammerblows for change through Obama be struck in the streets of Portland.”
These people walk freely on our streets, be very concerned.
(Via Melanie Phillips) Obama Caught Saying ACORN and Friends Will Shape His Presidential Agenda
Video here.
Zeyno Baran, Turkey: Partnership on the Brink
Turkey is unique among countries with a majority Muslim population: it is a secular democracy where the majority of its Muslims do not see any incompatibility between Islam and pluralism. Even though this has been the case for the past 85 years, Americans seem only recently to have realized Turkey’s “Muslimness.” In its fight against al-Qaeda and Islamist terrorism after 9/11, the Bush administration has launched a campaign aimed at promoting Turkey as an inspiration for the rest of the Arab and Muslim world.
When in November 2002 a party and a leadership with an Islamist past was elected to office, some in Turkey became concerned about the possibility of creeping Islamization…
Ali Alyami, Saudi Arabia: The Gathering Storm
The United States has had close ties to Saudi Arabia and its ruling family since the formation of the Saudi state in the early 1930s, when American oil companies began to survey the vast inhospitable sandy terrain of that country in hopes of finding oil deposits. They did, birthing a relationship between two countries divided by religious, political, social, economic and educational values. Frankly put, Saudi Arabia and the Unites States have nothing in common other than the fact that the former has oil and the latter needs it to lubricate the engines of its military and economic might…
But this opaque relationship, already in decline in the mid 1990s, was shattered on September 11, 2001. The terrible events of that day, and the substantial Saudi role in it, have led many to call into question the prudence of continued partnership between Washington and Riyadh…
Al W, those Nanos numbers you quote, while they sound great, are not their final poll numbers, unless you have another link different from last National Newswatch Nanos ref. Can you clarify?
Shamrock:
These Nanos Poll numbers came from a link on the blog The Langhjelm Letter (blogging tories) 7 hours ago. These numbers are from a Oct 12 Poll.
Thank you Al W, the NNW results are the running 3 day total, while you gave Sunday only results. Now that’s momentum, which if it continues (swing to incumbent reasonable assumption), you are right, we have majority (39-41% my guess).
I am looking forward to being pleasantly surprised tomorow night. Upon reflection I must conclude, yes Nanos is the best poll!
Remember, vote early and vote often (just kidding).