Kevin Trenberth[1], who is listed as a contributing author of the 2007 IPCC climate summary, surprised me, given his belief in anthropogenic global warming (AGW), when he said “climate models are markedly deficient by not adequately representing tropical cyclones.” Sea surface temperatures get too warm in the models due to improper handling of “surface energy exchanges from hurricanes in the global energetics of the climate system”. I’ve posted about several of the problems with the models before but this was confirmation from a major researcher.In a study on the number of tropical cyclones, Gregg Holland presented his conclusion that there has been a doubling of the number of tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin over the past 100 years and the increase had little to do with natural variability but was caused by a warming climate trend.
Chris Landsea was the very next speaker and said “No”, the increase is due entirely to our increased ability to detect storms that we wouldn’t have even known existed a few decades ago, which is what those of us who have been in this business for quite awhile have believed for some time.
Chris Landsea’s talk at the conference has now been published in EOS, a publication of the American Geophysical Union.
From Counting Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Back to 1900 (PDF):
[...] data from the first 66 years, shown in Figure 2b, have a quite different long-term character, with an average of 75% of tropical cyclones striking land. While there were no years with more than 80% striking land from 1966 onward, there were 15 years between 1900 and 1965 in which all (100%) recorded tropical cyclones struck land that season. This difference in the long-term percentage of tropical cyclones that struck land (75% from 1900–1965 versus 59% from 1966–2006) indicates a large bias toward underreporting of tropical cyclones that remained over the open Atlantic Ocean.
Thus concludes today's scientific consensus moment.
Thankyou.
[1] This is the same Kevin Trenberth who was a guest last week on 650 CKOM citing hurricane Katrina as indicative of global warming.
Kate, I think Figure c from the PDF would have been more representative of the point you are trying to make. Unless I'm missing something, Figure b refers to the percentage hitting land and doesn't really give an indication of the total number of storms.
As Mark Twain said (paraphrased, perhaps): "There are lies, damned lies and statistics."
B-but, don't you see!!!! The fact that fewer storms are hitting land is a definite, incontestable sign that GLOBAL weather patterns are being DISRUPTED by MAN made CLIMATE TOXINS!!!!!
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!! THE PLANET IS DYING!!!
Has anyone else noticed how closely tirades like that resemble a Far Side cartoon?
A few decades ago, vitually every (that they knew of) cyclone struck their shore. High percentage.
They did not include (in the %)the ones out to sea, cause they could not see them. No satilites, weather aircraft, ect. If a cyclone is near (able see it) it is much more likely to hit you.
A good Canadian, Dr. Timothy Ball, has been saying this for decades. But the CBC only wanted to make 'calamity series' on fruit flies and man-bad things.
What is truly amazing, when it comes to seeing and reporting the 'real story',
Score;
Quality Blogs(i.e. sda) ... lots and lots.
Mainstream Media ............a handful.
$$$$$ spent score;
Blogs ...... a handful
MSM ......... lots and lots
Words and music by Paul Simon!
Cheers babe!
Well... duh!
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
Comparison of pre-satellite numbers of storms to post-satellite numbers of storms has always been recognized as the Achille's heel of these studies. But there exist many who would rather not discuss that issue.
The same problem exist whem one attempts to compare old instrumental global mean temperatures to present day instrumental global mean temperatures. Density of measuring stations then vs. now should be a concern, should it not? But then, there are many who would rather not discuss that issue.
If this is BS whay has Kyoto been entrenched in Canadian policy? Explain please PMSH.
one of the claims made by Al Gore in his film concerns that American made cars can't be sold in China because of fuel economy. The reality is that this restriction is in place to insure cars sold in China are made in China. Fuel economy and envirnoment standards are two different things. Fuel economy is of course gas used to travel a certain distance and environment standards are amount of pollutants produced for distance travelled. China uses the previous European standard here for their environment standards which means it is more generous than current North American standards. They plan to use the current Euro standard by the time the next standard is in place in Europe. Cars made in China do not meet current North American standards. They are planning to make cars for this market and they will have current evironment standards of course.
In addition, it should be mentioned that no current auto evironment standard includes targets for CO2 emissions. California is putting in place such a standard soon though.
So here we have an example in the movie intended to support the position of our wretched excess and it doesn't even apply to CO2 emissions. Also GM, which makes cars in China, is the largest seller of cars in China.
When I point this out and other flaws in this movie I either get "Well its all in support of really good agrument." As if a good idea needs misinformation to fly. Or they point out that Euro standards, even the old one that China uses are stronger and I have to point out those standards are in metric and not Imperial.
Global warming, free trade, and wide open borders have targeted the same martyrs to appease their great lord of the not to smart college crowd trying to find a purpose in their own lives. This apparently eases the blood lust they swear is ours in the first place.
What will happen? Millions have always died as victims of people who were nothing more than powerful jokes. Societies disappeared in South America, genocide happened in Europe, holy war and Jihadi’s happened in the middle east all the way from Turkey to Nigeria to Bangladesh. Now its evil to believe something different than people who won't move to far from the university after they graduate. We had better get ready. These have been the traitors to average person, who still doesn’t know why they are despised by even some of their own leaders. Simple you guys built it. If you are around you will just fuck things up and we don't want any more psychiatrists because we have happy pills. Get it?
When AL GORE opens his piehole the tempeture gose up real high thats why he should be barred from the arctic circle and his presents will upset the nesting ARCTIC TERNS SQUAWK SQUAWK
If anyone saw the Daily Show after the last "Earth Day", they would have seen Lewis Black's commentary, pretty funny but bang on stuff.
Lewis at one point shows an ABC reporter saying that "in the 60seconds that I have been talking 60 football fields worth of trees have been cut down." To which Lewis says "Then for gods sake stop talking, your pointless blather is raping the planet."
And last year we were suppost to have had all those big time hurricanes and this winter they had up to 8 to 9 feet of snow in the state of New York i suppose they will atribute it to global warming knowing how crazy AL GORE is