The First Round

The dark horse Stelmach will be the winner. Unfortunately Morton has had it, and the only thing that can save Dinning is if he can convince the supporters of Olberg, Hancockand and Norris to cross over and I don't think that will happen. Morton will undoubtedly pick up a few but 90% percent of the wandering vote will not vote for Morton, again unfortunately. Dinning has his work cut out as the loyalties of sitting members will favor Stelmach, I think he will be the new Premier.

thanks Kate

My comments are as a view from the fringe and not as a member of any particular campaign. What I am after is a strong Alberta.

The numbers for Ed were not surprising to me - he has a lot of quiet support - probably understated just as is the man himself - but solid, just as he himself is.

What was very surprising to me was the number of votes that went to Lyle. After blatentley busing in about 250 "block voters" to the advance poll in Edmonton last week, I thought he would have gone down hill a whole lot worse that he did. The color green was pretty much non-existant at the Roundup Centre last night. What this tells me is that there is probably a whole lot more "block voting" happening within Oberg's camp that is prepared to deliver. What with all his other mis-steps that were pretty much covered in the MSM, just where this support comes from is confounding to me. More to the point, where does this support go with him off the ballot. My guess most/all of it will go to Dinning as an anything but M/S coalition.

Soooo - where does Morton's 2nd choice go and where does Stelmachs 2nd choice go. If there is sufficient vote splitting between Ed and Ted, then guess who is going to win this thing on the first choice.

Norris supporters are probably all going to Stelmach. I guessing but Hancock's supporters may well go to Dinning - even though it seems he, himself, has said something about supporting Stelmach. Doerkseon supporters probably go to Morton but this is not a huge number.

I understand where the Morton supporters tend to be coming from, but I hope they will be asking themselves a whole lot of questions this week and getting a whole lot more answers in terms of what things will look like with Ted as premier.

I will be voting Ed as first choice with Ted as number two. My concern is that we may not even get to count the 2nd choices.

Go Morton!

I guess I should have read the old post first, is it confirmed that Norris or Hancock crossed over to Stelmach?

My big disappointment if Morton misses out is that Alberta and the West will have missed it's biggest and I think only opportunity to hammer the east over the head with a 2 by 4 and get their attention. It will be the same old same old from the "center of the universe". The West may have lost in Morton it's last chance to be heard and taken seriously. Start learning French and slime neck eastern ways.

The top two are no surprise. A bit of a surprise on the rest. I'm happy about the Norris finish. I think there was a reason he wasn't re-elected by his constituents.

Anyone know of a source to find out the #'s riding by riding? Being from a small town where everyone knows everyone, and where they stand, I was a little surprised to see who was in the hen house.

Matt; it all boils down to spending priorities. McPherson is left leaning on ALL the issues: health, social, enviroment and education. I think though that he could be a good change to the stingiy, hard hearted, way that Klein has dealt with the Province's disabled, under priveledged, and work injured Albertans. Hopefully they find him a niche and he can stick to a budget.

Hancock is going to Stelmach, from reports this morning. However I wouldnt count Morton out yet. If Morton could pick up Oberg alone, it would still be close.
Dinning will have to buy and mail out a lot more memberships than he already has, if he expects to win, in my opinion. My vote is still with Ted.

Calgary Clipper; it isn't Morton supporters who should be looking within, it's Dinning's. With Ted, it's black and white. With Dinning and Love, you're getting a managing firm.
This Party is rotting from the inside, and Dinning leading it will = status quo or worse. At least Klein made mistakes. Dinning won't. Or if he does, you and I will never find out.

For the love of province and country, vote for reform.

Which of the losers will Albortians miss the least?

I wouldn't count Morton out by any stretch. The people I have talked to are that were Norris people are now going to Morton. Should he pick up Oberg and Norris, he's got it. Go Ted!

all of a sudden CBC is a worthwhile MSM to quote?

hypocrite.

Posted by: jason at November 26, 2006 12:33 PM

all of a sudden CBC is a worthwhile MSM to quote?

hypocrite.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Stelmach is 15,000 votes behind. He doesn't have a chance. His supporters now have to choose between an urban liberal and a rural conservative. Since Stelmach's support is largely rural AND conservative I hope they realize that Morton best represents them and is the only one who has a chance at sending Dinning back to his liberal home.

My point is that I would much prefer right now to see Alberta led by Ed with a very prominent place held by Ted. Realistically, I just don't think that Ted has the backing within the caucus right now to be in the number one position. I don't think we will see the results right now that will enable a Ted first with Ed having the prominent position.

If the Dinning/Oberg coalition happens as I'm suggesting is likely - then both Ed and Ted are going to be on the outer edges once again within the power structure and Alberta is the loser. Somehow, I don't have the feeling that Ted is likely to gain much from the Oberg people but Stelmach is probably more likely to gain at least some of these.

If the Ed/Ted combination are unable to significantly turn things around within the conservative party, then in the next provincial election, then the conservatives just may be decimated. Dinnng/Rod Love/Oberg et al look inwards ..... hmmmmmm, not likely!

If Stelmach throws in with Morton that would be a shoe in for Ted. I am hoping that Oberg will go for Morton as well since I don't think he is any sort of a buddy with Dinning. Conventional political analysis does not necessarily apply in AB. Hopefully Morton can pull all the "Anybody but Dinning" votes to himself.

If Dinning gets in I can see another right wing "reform" type party arrising in Alberta.

"all of a sudden CBC is a worthwhile MSM to quote?"

Where have you been? I quote CBC all the time, when there's good reason to do so - just as I do CTV and any other media organization I've found worthy of criticism.

The one saving grace of CBC is that the links don't rot.

If anyone's interested, I found the riding break downs. Put my fears to rest. (http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/features/passingthetorch/index.html) click on orange button beside pic.

The key here is to convince would be Dinning supporters that Morton isn't scary, rather he's geniune in his goals.

Kate's right about CBC. They can be useful idiots.

Thanks for the speakers corner, Kate. Good morning ladies and gentlemen.

The Edmonton Champagne Socialists, Mastercard Marxists, Limousine Liberals and Welfare Wankers Journal was dripping with condescension and disappointment in their coverage this morning, so things must be going well. They wanted a big government coronation on the first ballot, and they didn't get it. One gets the impression that if they had their way we would really have the one-party state they keep dishonestly claiming that our government is. In reality of course, we actually have a decently sized handful of parties, whereas as their sole party would be the permanent communist party.

Ahh, I love the smell of a proper, polite, decently functioning democracy on a cold November morning. But Vitruvis, you may say, what happens if your side loses the vote? My dear, I'm a minarchist libertarian, my side always loses the vote, so I'm quite used to it.

Anyway, in this case my side is at least nominally still at the table. I spoke with some Norris supporters at the Edmonton forum, and it's not clear to me that they will be moving in bulk to Dinning: remember that Norris and Morton have been the *only* two candidates to discuss the limits to what government can do. Similarly, it's not clear to me that Stelmach's support demographic will naturally veer to the tranzi urbanites. And this is just what democracy always needs: a good, open, honest race, with no horse scoring a runaway. It helps keep the politicians on their toes.

Win, lose or draw, does anyone have a better idea? Churchill didn't, and I don't think things have changed that much in the course of human behaviour since Churchill, or Aristotle for that matter. The Journal certainly doesn't have a better idea (indeed, other than one or maybe two columnists, they don't even have any good ideas). What, put me in charge? No, I do think that would be less than optimal -- I don't suffer fools gladly enough to ever be a good politician.

I would like to thank all the candidates and volunteers who have worked on the campaigns and the production mechanics to date, and encourage everyone to keep up the good work, for the next week, and into the future. To any of the putz's who constantly whine about government and didn't even get off their butt to cast their ballot yesterday, I have only contempt.

And thanks again to Kate. It's nice to have a place where intelligent adults can have a reasoned conversation, even if we do have to put up with a sometimes difficult signal to noise ratio caused by our gracious willingness to let the noisy children play alongside us while we go about our work.

The race for the leadership of the Alberta PCs is now just that, a sprint to the finish. And after Saturday's vote, the choices have solidified somewhat.
We can either choose the candidate of the status quo, the candidate who surrounded himself with the usual well-heeled, backroom and corporate insiders who will stay the current course.
Or we can opt for the candidate of the past we never had, the candidate who curries favour only with those who thinks as he does that we should become narrow-minded, inward and isolated from the any influences he deems are dangerous or troublesome.
But there is clearly now a third option.
Ed Stelmach represents all that is good about all of Alberta and all Albertans -- rural and urban; newcomers to Wild Rose Country and those descendants of our proud pioneer heritage; those enjoying the benefits of the Alberta Advantage and those still struggling to take their place.
Ed has taken the time to look at all the issues -- economic, social and political. He knows Alberta's future promise rides not on defining winners and losers, insiders and outsiders, who's for us or against us, but rather on what unites us all in a diverse, modern province and what makes us stronger.

With better weather next weekend and a higher rural turnout because of it, Ted is looking really, really good right now.

The Mop & Pail has an intriguing headline about the Alberta leadership race.

“Two visions prevail for ‘bad boy' province”

Whoo Hoo!

Are they going to reveal the secret rock star style antics of Canada’s most dynamic jurisdiction?
Alas no.

“Mr. Morton, a social conservative and Tory backbencher, …………. friend of Prime Minister Stephen Harper has complained that $36-million a day leaves Alberta for Ottawa and often ends up in Quebec's coffers.”

That is very very bad.

Did the G&M actually say "Bad Boy Province"?
Oy, farbissener chaleria, farshtaist?

A question for those who are following the race closely (I have really only been reading about an article a week). It looks like the momentum is with Stelmach and Morton, though I can't figure out who has more. But assuming that Stelmach and Morton both have good weeks and Dinning really is stalled, is it possible that some of Dinning's supporters will desert to Stelmach to stop a Morton victory?

... not to forget in all of this is that the Dinning/Oberg supporters must also make a choice as to where there 2nd vote goes. My best guess it that a large number will go to Stelmach rather than to Oberg, Dinning or Morton. Who really wants Oberg anyway? He is unpredictable, an unnecessary wave maker, an opportunist, a liability, and on it goes.

Neither Ed nor Ted, I think, are about to not play the hand out - so let the games begin. My predication is that Ed will win with all the dramatics of processing the 2nd choices.

With the three horse race, and with every member allowed to vote for whomever they want, how does dinning, morton, or stelmach be a kingmaker? or any of the knocked off candidates? Hancock has supported Stelmach but does that really mean all his voters will vote for Stelmach?

Cheri, I agree with you, I think Gary Macpherson made some great points and was willing to discuss disability rights and similar issues. I hope he does find room in the party to participate. I dont think he was the best candidate but the party needs room for him. Ralph couldnt care less, he always thought giving out AISH was a freebee to be lazy.

I can't see Stelmach winning this. With him being a distant 3rd, he needs to pick up a LOT of votes and finish 2nd after the first vote on Saturday. I don't see anyone abandoning their vote for Dinning or Morton on the first vote.

This quote from the Edmonton Sun is quite fun:

Morton has repeatedly slammed the federal equalization program, which he says sucks $36 million a day out of the province for redistribution to have-not provinces, including the Maritimes and Quebec.

He said yesterday he hopes that "if Quebec wants to be a self-governing nation, they will also aspire to being a self-financing nation."

it seems to me that the king-maker will really be the Morton supporters. They also must make a 2nd choice because the Dec 2 vote is a preferential ballot. No doubt the black shirts want a clear majority after the number one ballots are counted but.......

If there is not a clear winner after the #1 choices are counted - the 2nd choices are counted. I'm not clear on the total picture re the preferential ballot - but 2nd and possibly 3rd choices will likely be in play.

It also depends on where the 2nd choice of Stelmach supporters go. I'm hoping that they will go with Morton rather than Dinning.

I'm starting to think that whoever does win this will win with a bare majority, say 52-53%.

As much as I despise proportional balloting, I love preferential balloting. It's great to be able to go into the polling booth and be able to say: I like this one best, but if I can't have that, then I like this other one better than that one. Then, let the chips fall where they may. I think that's cool.

Here are the exact rules as I understand it for the preferential balloting: "All voters rank the three candidates in order of preference; the candidate who has 50 per cent plus one of the number 1 rankings wins; if no candidate reaches that, the bottom candidate drops off and his or her votes are transferred in order of preference to the remaining two and a winner is declared."

So for all practical purposes, one just picks one's first and second choices from the three. While I'm sure it possible to enter into interminable dissertations of periphrastic circumlocution on the matter of strategic voting, one of the nice things about well-designed preferential balloting is that it doesn't tend to work that way in practice.

You know, there's an old saying: always bet against the team you want to win. That way, if your team wins you're happy about that, and if not, at least you make a few bucks.

If nothing else, this should be a wake-up call for Alberta's conservative party. Ted Morten, as a backbencher, has made an incredible showing. Considering the flack he took from conservative and other MLA's with bill 208, there should be a message to them that Albertans generally feel uneasy with the speed that secular progressive ideas are taking over our thinking in Canada. And for those of you that the above comments cause foaming and frothing at the mouth, might I say: the word "WHOA" is not the same as "ATTACK" where I come from.

Just took at look at the numbers for the individual polls.

Dinning votes
Calgary - 13074 (52%)
Edmonton - 4765 (24.3%)
Calgary & Edmonton - 17839 (39.9%)
ROP - 11631 (22.8%)

The 5 out votes
Calgary 4019 (16%)
Edmonton 10373 (52.9%)
ROP Count 12647 (24.8%)

I can't see anyone winning outright - preference is going to call the winner. I suspect Edmonton will get some attention this week.

The debate in Edmonton seems in retrospect like a harbinger of Dinning's stalling-out. As I walked into the Mayfield with a couple of friends I got the impression that I'd wandered into a Dinning rally. We were met just inside the doors by a mob of placard-carrying Dinning supporters; in the labyrinthe of hallways on the way to the conference room, his campaign workers had what seemed like every second booth, and then inside the conference room there were scores of his orange-T-shirted supporters milling around among the front seats, as if semi-officially reserving these most-likely-to-be-on-camera seats for his supporters.

But then the debate started, and something really suprising happened: Dinning received remarkably lukewarm reactions throughout the evening to his John Kerry/Paul Martin-style pronouncements, while Morton, who had almost no visible support in terms of buttons, etc., seemed to invigorate people in all parts of the gathered crowd.

Last night's results suggest that that reaction wasn't just a one-off, but part of a larger pattern where voters are beginning to recognized that federal Liberal-esque bloat and arrogance has overtaken the party, and that Morton is the ideal candidate to put things back on track and to reaffirm Conservative principles in this province.

Morton may not win -- I think he's got a good chance -- but there's no question that he has the momentum. As recently as a month ago the Edmonton media in particular were treating this race as a lead-up to a Dinning Coronation, and Morton was considered to be a fringe candidate supposedly representing only some far-right outlying wing of the party. It was almost as if the Journal's contacts were within the government, or something...

One more thing, I think some people may be overestimating the extent to which Stelmach's supporters will follow him if he throws his support behind Dinning. For many voters, their decision is not based on dissection of policy minutae, but on character; Stelmach comes across not as a professional politician/used-car salesman like Dinning, but rather as a really decent, honest fellow, and archetypal Albertan of a certain generation. Personally, intuitively, I'm not sure why anyone who appreciates Stelmach's character would ever vote for a guy like Dinning, but who knows? They both represent the old guard, I guess.

Go Morton!

does the Premier of the badboy province have to line up for a spanking in front of crotchety old Ontario and his faded Mistress Dame Quebec, while the stay at home older brothers in their sailor hats watch to pick his pockets?

Ted Morton is the only one that will flush the big toilet that Ralph as left, where clowns like dave coutts are made cabinet ministers, yes boys like guy boutineer and dave nocock cabinet ministers, the glass shop owner turned head of the nrcb, the ex wife of the campaign manager of one cabinet minister given a 120k a year job who has yet to speak at any of the meetings she attends, yes it is time for a flush when phone calls to jackasses like love and charlabois cost us 49,000 and over 400,000, remember love backed belinda to, and now he is guiding Dinning, that is enough to make you run and run fast from this slime dripping girly man and vote for Ted. Morton will send all these bobbing turds making 220,000 a year bobbing down the north saskatchewan with one mighty flush make Ed his deputy minister and send Dinning back to writing cheques for 25,000 to his friend paul martin or maybe the great bob rae or better yet justin trudeau. Alberta is a success story because of conservatism one slip with a closet liberal like dinning will ruin a century of hard work. do some dd on this amway salesman.

Can you believe that every failed candidate lined up with Stelmach?? Not one guy went with Morton. What the hell is happening in Alberta that we can no longer elect a true conservative as premier??

Last time every failed candidate lined up behind Betkowski. It didn't work out to well then.

Yeah rhuppertz I was kinda fast off the mark with my comment. Albertan voters deserve more credit than I gave them. I am sure they will make up their own minds which way they will vote.

If Dinning wins, who is going to give up their seat in Calgary for him to run and get elected. If everyone who voted this time vote next time, and all those supporting the bottom five go to Ed, he is still 6239 votes short of 50%+1. Do the math. Having spent the wkend in Edmonton, I ask, where is global warming when you need it. 50%+1 of
97690=48845. Dinning needs to get another 19375 votes and Morton needs 23231 votes to get the magic number. Ed needs 33788 to get over the top. He must be hoping he gets all 5 losers votes plus his own, and then get some second ballot choices to make it. But, many of us will not mark a second choice. It will probably be those voting for Ed and he will be in third place, so his second choices will be counted. Third place next week and you are out and your second choice counts. I doubt if all Obergs votes will go to Ed, many will go to Morton. Stay tuned, this could be more interesting than the liberal vote.

Remember, Dinning suppported Martin last Jan, both with money and working to get him elected, and against Steven Harper. If elected how would they work together.

I was reading on another site that there may be a move among Morton supporters to put only one choice on the preferential ballot on Dec 2.

I guess if the thought is that hey, we can take it after counting only the 1st ballots, it may work. Dinning for sure will be going for a 1st count win also but to think they will not hedge their bets with Stelmach is a stretch (i.e. by putting Stelmach #2)

The likelyhood of Dinning supporters putting Stelmach 2nd on the preferential ballot is almost a certainty - to many ideological differences between Dinning supporters and Morton supporters.

I have no idea how many Stelmach supporters are going to put Dinning as second choice but I am not one of them. My guess is that there are probably more who will put probably put Morton as number two, but hey - I'm only one person.

It doesn't matter so much who the individual losing candidates are supporting - it is where there supporters go. They are all thoughtful people (except perhaps for the "block voters"). Just because their "man" isn't among the top three, it doesn't mean they necessarily have to follow this persons choice for themselves. Where the initial Oberg supporters actually go is very big and I think not clear to the voting public.

For the Morton supporters to not put Stelmach as a number two choice may well end up with a Dinning win. If the latter happens, both Stelmach and Morton will be on the outer fringes of government again and for next two years.

I'm open to being convinced otherwise. Regardless of the outcome on Dec 2, a huge message has been sent - the next provincial election will also be huge.

I don't really know a damn thing about the leadership race - I live as far as you can get from Alberta and still be in the country (I think. I may lose out to Ellesmere Island) - but I do understand the preferential balloting system... and if someone puts only one vote down on their ballot in some belief that by doing so he is helping his candidate, then that candidate is clearly winning the "stupid vote".

Let's be clear - the ONLY way YOUR second-choice vote gets counted is if YOUR first-choice candidate is eliminated. Gone. Not elected and can't be elected. Thus, the question becomes "If you can't have him, who do you want of the other two?"

Now, perhaps you believe "If I can't have John Smith, then I don't give a damn - I'll vote Liberal." If you do, okay, your call. I think you're wasting your vote, but that's your choice. Still, you're not helping John Smith by leaving the rest of your ballot blank.

The good thing about this is that you don't *really* know who your preferred candidate is supporting as a backup to his own victory - any candidate who tells you where he's putting his own second-place vote is coming too close to admitting defeat for most politicians' comfort levels. As a result, I think there will be even less "sheep effect" than normal. There will also be no explicit "kingmaker".

Ashley

The dippers will be out in force next weekend, trying to get Dinning elected, just like they threw their support behind Betkowski in the last leadership race. It seems that even Torontonians want to get involved in this election, judging from the responsse of the G&M. It's time for real Albertans to get out, and to get your friends out, to stem the socialist intervention in our election. Get behind Morton. It's our only chance to make a difference.

We have to remember that only the votes for the third-place finisher have the 2nd preferences counted. Doesn't matter who or if the 1st and 2nd place finishers have a second choice.

As for the moving votes, few if any will be moving from their failed candidate in a block to any of the final three. Their rural voters are likely to go to Morton, while their urban voters will mostly go with Stelmach with a few to Dinning. I expect that significant numbers of the insta-Tories that all of the last 5 signed up will simply stay home.

Given the likely insurmountable gap that Stelmach must overcome to place 1st or 2nd, it is likely that the second preferences on his ballots will decide the issue.

I was originally under the impression, as are many, that all second choices were counted. Now that I know only the losing candidates 2nd choices are counted, that makes a difference. Ed Stelmack could end up as the accidental premier of Alberta. That would really make a lot of the elites in Calgary have heart attacks. Too bad Dinning closed all or most of the rural hospitals, and some in the cities, there will be no beds for all those victims. Couldn't happen to a better class of people. Eds supporters will probably go 25% dinning and 75% Morton. Mortons will go 100% Stelmach. Dinnings will go to stelmach. Unless Dinning can get the calgary voter out of his warm house, he is done. Calgary had the lowest turnout of all Alberta according to one report. Big question, who will be in Cabinet. Notice all sitting members are going to Stelmach. Wonder why.

Because everyone is scared of change. Will they have a job etc., etc.

Where will Alberta and Canada be if we don't get meaningful electoral reform? The reason our country is so much in debt is because of vote buying. End it. Fixed election dates. Iron clad budgets. Debt reduction.

There is no reason Canada shouldn't be one of the wealthiest nations. Instead we an almost broke Ontario, and too many gimme-gimme, never give back, Governments and citizens.

As the week progresses, I wouldn't discount the possibility that more than a few of those Dinning supporters may well have a reversal of mind and put Stelmach as number one with Dinning in #2. There should be nothing about trying to be strategic here - it simply is all about where do we want Alberta to go in terms of direction from here.

If Dinning wins this, it is a validation/vote for the Rod Love style of politics. With the level of push back that has already occurred, there is a very clear message that this in fact is the "older way" of doing politics and much more akin to the central Liberal style of doing things. I'm hoping that the majority of Albertan's are finally beginning to realize that yes, there is something we can do about it.

Dinning does not have a seat in the legislature. He has not been performing at a level that probably many of his supporters have expected of him. The 32+ MLAs who came out of the blocks running behind Dinning must also be having some thoughts about now. If the heavy hitters are truly sensing a momentum change, they will dump Dinning in a heartbeat. The mood for renewal within the conservative party is now very high - and many people are looking at what happens in the next provincial election.

Rutherford (talk show with large reach in AB) has just stated that on Wed a.m. both Morton and Stelmach will be on together.

He was hoping to have all three on - but mark this - Dinning has opted not to come on. The sands are shifting and as the week goes on - there are probably those among the Dinning camp who are already looking to Stelmach as number one. The 32+ MLAs who fired out of the blocks for Dinning must at least be starting to sweat a little.

....now the scene gets even more interesting

The heavyweights among the AB federal conservatives are flooding back this week (probably Wed) to boost Morton.

Is this good news or bad news for Alberta?

Check out the most senior of all of these people and see how many are bilingual. Most all of these sat on Bill S-3 (amendment to the official languages act) in 2004/5 as it quietly made its way through the Senate. The same group sat on this bill (i.e. did not have this aired publicly) as it was given "very quiet" All party approval in the House of Commons in late 2005.

This bill was actually signed into law by the Governor General a few days before the last federal election. Soooooo, Jason Kenney (bilingual) et al have a huge vested interest in Morton becoming premier because Morton will align himself (already has, really). Increasing levels of Official Bilingualism will move very quickly via implementation of Law S-3 - this is the Harper/Mulroney agenda. Anybody who thinks this will not happen is missing something.

Go Ed