Environics

I see they had the good sense to name their web site "saskparty.com". Not even people from Sasktach..., Saskachew..., from that province to the right of Alberta can spell the whole thing.

But now that I think about it, there is no province to the right of Alberta.

Yowza!

Kate has linked to a five-week old story about a four-month-old poll, bolding a clause including the phrase 'it now holds.'

That's quite an, um, interesting use of the word 'now.'

"The previous results are based on a survey conducted by telephone between June 2 and 23, 2006 among a probability sample of 2,036 adult residents of Canada (aged 18 or older). The sample, which was stratified by region and by community size, is estimated to be accurate within 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20."

Who deserves to be called a 'sloppy reader' again?

That post should have read, 'bolding the clause beginning with 'it now holds'...'

Got more recent numbers? Let's see 'em.

Nice try Kate, but if these numbers were any kind of story, they were a story back in the summer, not a week after Thanksgiving.

If you had any fresher numbers you'd publish them too, but you don't, so you picked these ones out of the back of the fridge, brushed off the green fuzz and posted them on your blog.

Anytime a pollster is interviewed in the media, s/he almost always makes a point of saying their numbers represent a 'snapshot' of public opinion at the time the poll was taken: you'd have us believe the province has been frozen in time since the June 'snapshot' was taken.

I don't know what the relative party standings would be if a poll were taken today. On the basis of this poll, neither do you.

I guess that's the long way of saying that you don't!

I live in this province, and I had no idea that the Sask Party has polled that strong at any time. I suspect a number of readers are equally unaware. It certainly wasn't widely reported, if Google News is any indication.

And if you read again carefully, you'll discover that I've added no editorial commentary, other than to register my surprise.

Not to post offtopic, but what's with the comment disclaimer now, has there been trouble lately?

And back ontopic, I think the coming election could bring a resurgence of the Sask Liberals, seeing how the NDP is tanking in the cities [even though Weyburn is "rural" it's still a city]. To stop the Sask Party [which is after all a good portion old Liberals], voters who would normally support the NDP may decide they'll have to go Liberal to stop the Conservatives in the Sask Party.

don't rush to merrymaking so soon people, even if. the saskparty is part Liberal and part Conservative, like the provincial Liberals in BC and Quebec.

I live in this province, and I had no idea that the Sask Party has polled that strong at any time.

So do I, and I still have no idea why you would choose to present a four-month-old poll as though it represented the current state of political play in Saskatchewan.

And if you read again carefully, you'll discover that I've added no editorial commentary, other than to register my surprise.

If you read again carefully, you'll see that I didn't say that you had added such commentary, but I do say that registering your 'surprise' at a months-old poll while bold-facing text claiming a certain party 'now' holds a certain kind of lead is misleading, to say the least.

Seriously, Kate, what would your response be if someone blogged tomorrow to register their surprise at a months-old poll on, say, the Canadian population's support (or lack thereof) for the mission in Afghanistan?

I used to live in Sask and I'm laughing at Stephen's inability to see the significance of a 29-point lead in the most recent known poll of support for the political parties of Saskatchewan. If the difference was, say, five points, I'm sure Kate wouldn't have bothered to say, "Hey, look at this... draw your own conclusions", if that's the message we're supposed to get...

Anyway, it's not surprising... the people of Sask. don't see much point in keeping the lackadaisical socialist regime of the NDP in charge of their province. It's high time for a change, and I predict a landslide will bury the NDP in Sask in the next election. The winds of change are blowing, tumbleweeds bumping into the hapless little nerdy Premier Calvert...

And Stephen's comparison to support for the Afghanistan mission would be relevant only if the difference between the for/against was as significant as the diff. in this case in question. And as far as I can recall, this hasn't been so. Besides, the questions asked about Afghanistan are often manipulative, designed to skew results, IMHO.

I was born and raised in Saskatchewan and transferred back here in '74. I, too, am happy to see the results of that poll, no matter how old. The ndp have ruined this province with stupid socialist ideas{?} and we need to dig out to save ourselves.
The leaves have fallen from the ndp money tree and the people watering that tree have said, "ENOUGH"! We want to see some positive results for all our hard work, effort and sacrifice. We want to prosper as our neighbor to the west has. Enough vote buying with the unions and welfare cases. Time for EVERYONE to CONTRIBUTE and the government to be more business friendly so that we may all have a chance to succeed!
The water in the ndp lake has become stagnant and it's time for a fresh flow.
The ndp are dried up!

Great Stephen, If you can't attack the fact - attack the font!

we must all feel sorry for Stephen, no doubt a hard working NDP'er who is panicking at how pitiful the NDP is doing. Given the summer of fun that Calvert had - how many ministers quit ?? one can only specuate the lead is now on the other side of 29 points.

Maybe Clavert will see the light, join the LPC and try for the leadership . . there is still time to challenge Iggy & Red Bob

Stephen sounds worried... maybe his government job will get cut.

Stephen sounds worried... maybe his government job will get cut.

The poll is about what I would expect. If taken today, it would likely be an even greater spread. If Stephen chose to go out and talk to real people, rather than a few cronies around the water cooler at a bloated gov. office or after the uinion meeting, he would likely know what the rest of us know. The NDP in this province are done. If not for the inexplicable strength in a few strongholds, I would bet that they would not even be the opposition in the next legislature.

Firstly, OOPS.

Secondly...
58 seats, minus 12 seats in Reguna (fraidy cats).
minus another 8 seats in Stoon (university town; nuf said).

next election:
SP - 38
NDP - 20

A measly 29 point lead? The Lancet make-believers can make it 654,965 points pronto!

The salient point here seems to be that a poll from a large company, consistently used by the MSM, was not seen by anyone here until 4 months later, and no one recalls this fascinating result ever appearing in electronic or print media.
Did the entire MSM have a bad day and miss it? Or did most of them see it, cringe, and decide not to spread the bad news about the party most of them support?
Ask yourself this: If an Environics poll had shown a 29 point NDP lead, would we have heard about it 4 months ago?
A poll that old may indeed not be accurate today. It is the fact that I/we didn't know about it ('til Kate dug it out)that I find instructive.

Maybe the SP will surprise all and take every single seat in Sask. Why not? It happened in NB in '87.

Go ahead, Saskers... elect the government you deserve... for a change! ;)

That 29 point spread *IS* getting wider. There are many younger adults who are getting tired of having to look West for employment. I would like to see the NDP obliterated from the landscape of Saskatchewan politics - and again - there are many young people like myself who feel the same way.

I heard that Karl Rove makes regular hunting trips to northern Sask.
Maybe he has decided to straighten things out for the friends he’s made there.
Just needed a little sprinkle from the vast right wing conspiracy that he runs.

This poll may or may not be 4 months old, it does not change the fact that Calvert will delay calling an election as long as he possibly can, and will use taxpayer's money to try buy votes and save his sorry... again.

Ah, good old Saskatchewan , producer of Martin Brown-noser Ralphy Goody-two-shoes.
There's no poll like an old poll.

When the Sask Party gets in I hope with all my being that they introduce and pass "right to work" legislation then maybe this province will move ahead.

I hope this poll is yesterday's news. Here in B.C. almost everyone you meet is from somewhere else, and the most friendly, down to earth people come from Saskatchewan.

Saskatchewan's finest export, its people.

The Sask Party slant around here has people missing the fact that the SK Liberals polled at 17 percent. With the NDP doing so badly as some here to actually suggest they might not get a seat, it's really likely that Karwacki and a few other Liberals will take some seats. Heck if we had a decent modernized electoral system 17% would translate into [very] roughly 9 seats, and a bunch of voters would have appropriate representation in the Legislature.
Don't forget that a good chunk of Sask Party support is only there because they gave up on the SK Liberals, and wouldn't have an idealogical issue with going back if they could defeat NDP candidates.

Saskboy you talk like you support the screwed up idea of pop rep. That was shut down here in BC because its a BAD IDEA.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled program.

Yowza....Hang on to your wallets.
Yeah, free, having every vote count is a terrible idea.

Yeah Maryjane, you wouldn't want farmers to get a say in who governs, it's better your precious NDP stay in power so they can make sure to keep rural SK in its place - out of sight and inaccessible.

Free, "That was shut down here in BC because its a BAD IDEA"
No, it got more than 50% support, but needed 60% to be adopted. It wasn't shut down, because it wasn't in place.

When they take these polls no one phones the one place where the NDP still get a lot of votes. The nursing homes. And the NDP is good at getting their supporters to vote.

If you were refering to my response to FREE, saskboy, that was sarcasm. If not, who said anything about farmers, although that hang on to your wallets thing would apply.BTW, proportional rep would not favour rural SK.

Proportional rep is NOT democracy its a twisted way for the minority to control everything.

If you want true democracy try looking south.

A 2 party system is the most fair, but I do like seeing the left split, like the NDP and liberanos sharing one side of the vote.

Free, your view that the south has a "true" democracy, when only two families are in real contention to rule the country over the past and future collective 20 years, is beyond laughable. I thought you were against a minority controlling everything through manipulation...

I think I smell socialist anti-Americanism smouldering there saskboy.

Remeber if it wasnt for the USA we all would still be subjects. Of either the german workers SOCIALIST party ot the New Dhimmi party or maybe the commie party.

Free, "Remeber if it wasnt for the USA we all would still be subjects."

I hope we aren't testing Kate's patience, but if so you're welcome to get a verbal lesson over at my blog.

That comment from you sounds like some anti-Canadianism smoldering. Where do you think the USA would be if we weren't a friendly country? They'd have had to waste military power on us, and may not have contributed to WWI or II. So drop your "bow to the US because they're why we're here" attitude, and give your country and simple geography some credit too.

saskboy? shouldnt that be commie subversive boy?
what a scumwad, do you really think I would lower myself to even visit your website? I'll do that right after I let my child watch something on the CBC. You might even be able to figure out when that will be, but I doubt it.

Canadian Sentinel wrote:

And Stephen's comparison to support for the Afghanistan mission would be relevant only if the difference between the for/against was as significant as the diff. in this case in question.Uh, no it wouldn't: the principle that an out-of-date poll was not a reliable guide to current public opinion would remain the same.

pilto wrote:

Great Stephen, If you can't attack the fact - attack the font!Attacking the font was attacking the so-called fact because the bolded words were misleading. Perhaps you're unfamiliar, pilot, with our English word 'now': it means 'presently,' or 'at the current time.' It doesn't mean 'as recorded four months ago and reported last month.' Kate's stale poll numbers don't provide the 'fact' you assert exists.

Fred wrote:

we must all feel sorry for Stephen, no doubt a hard working NDP'er who is panicking at how pitiful the NDP is doing. Given the summer of fun that Calvert had - how many ministers quit ?? one can only specuate the lead is now on the other side of 29 points.

Don't feel sorry for me, Fred: feel sorry for the posters who can't understand, as you do, that 'speculating' about any lead is all one can do in the absence of current, reliable information.

Joe B wrote:

Stephen sounds worried... maybe his government job will get cut.

You sound uninformed, a condition I speculate is unlikely to change no matter how the next election turns out.

jwp wrote:

If Stephen chose to go out and talk to real people, rather than a few cronies around the water cooler at a bloated gov. office or after the uinion meeting, he would likely know what the rest of us know.

If you chose to pay attention to facts and the elementary rules of logic, rather than posting baseless speculation and unsupported anecdotal evidence, intelligent people might be more interested in reading what you have to say.

exactly my point

Oh this is great! Rad Brad and the dried up Tory's think there's a victory in the future! HA HA! When the public learns about Yogi supporting the Iraq war, Brad and his failed businesses, and McMorris, a driving instructor...The only thing the Saskatchewan public wants is good public policy and to share in the successes. The Tory's on here are mad because they want to take over a well run government.

I wish all political parties got as much good propaganda as the Sask and Tories do out of our news media. No other parties get this much. All newsmen are right wingers. Why I ask?

Your Saskparty cronies collect a nice Gov't salary themselves. They are also paid silly servants. All that will happen if the Saskparty gets in is that the Gov't will spend us into another hole. Give them 4 to 8 years and we'll be broke again then the NDP will come back to power to clean up the finacial mess. That's what will happen. It always does.

I never heard of said poll. Why didn't the media report on it? Who knows, maybe it's an urban legend then again maybe not. I don't trust anything John Gormley says. His talk show is so bias it's a shame. He'd say or do anything to bolster his party. He get's the same people on all the time. Don't they have jobs? And they're all authorities on every subject. What a croc.

He who controls the media controls the mind. During the last election I heard Murray Wood state "don't vote NDP". What kind of neutral reporting is that. We're just not happy when things go right we think the SaskParty will give us more. If the Auditor says we don't have the cash I would tend to believe him.